Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[AmRacer]

Probably. Jumbo A-team drilling first lap of Grappa would hit different.

I also just think the Tour route is just really bad for Vingegaard, even in peak shape. I basically only really like the Plateau de Beille stage for him.

And Nice TT

 

[Fos]

I’m not saying every mountain stage, but those he took time. He doesn’t look fresh as a daisy, would be ridiculous after 3 weeks

3 weeks where no one has forced him and he has made the efforts when and how he wanted. To me this sounds like training, and in the hardest stages he looked very good after finish, I don't know if like a daisy, I'm not a botanist...

 

[Fos]

I agree on Pogacar in 2023, I think the combination of minor illness/stomach issue and the crash explain his collapse much better than "not enough training" when he missed some training in the exact period where he'd take it the easiest.

The lack of training is the basis, I believe, no one wants to go to a Tour starting to train well in June. If this had not affected the concentrations at altitude in May they are a waste of time.

 

[dercuforever]

Jonas will field a team that can control the race and pace him back if needed. If Jumbo is as strong as we have seen in recent Tours, it will be very hard for Tadej to deliver on the double. What a feat it would be! What an opportunity! He can do it.

This year it will be Jonas, Kuss and Jorg vs Yates Pog, Ayuso, Almeida. I don't think UAE will ever be under represented this year.

 

[solo80k]

This year it will be Jonas, Kuss and Jorg vs Yates Pog, Ayuso, Almeida. I don't think UAE will ever be under represented this year.

No Majka for the Tour? He isn't the strongest climber overall but he's very consistent and experienced.

 

[AmRacer]

No Majka for the Tour? He isn't the strongest climber overall but he's very consistent and experienced.

Pog can get a fresh team for the Tour.

 

[ice&fire]

This year it will be Jonas, Kuss and Jorg vs Yates Pog, Ayuso, Almeida. I don't think UAE will ever be under represented this year.

Almeida will do his thing of sitting at the back of the group, drop before his help is needed and yoyo his way back to get a top-10 result without having spent a second in front of Tadej. And I wouldn't bet on Ayuso sacrificing himself for Tadej like A.Yates did last year in Joux-Plane, ignoring completely the threat to his own GC aspirations of eventual stage winner Carlos Rodríguez.
After having watched Catalunya this year, it may sound ironic to say that Tadej will need at the Tour more Soler and less Almeida.

 

[solo80k]

Pog can get a fresh team for the Tour.

Well, I have some doubts as well. Almeida wasn't convincing so far this season. We'll see how it pans out.

 

[AmRacer]

Well, I have some doubts as well. Almeida wasn't convincing so far this season. We'll see how it pans out.

We'll see at Criterium du Dauphine.

 

[Netserk]

But he didn't take time on every mountain stage. On Prati di Tivo he rode in with the GC group and out-sprinted them. In the Sterrato stage he held fire. He looks fresh as a daisy, not someone tired from going deep every day for three weeks.

Contador looked fresh as a daisy at the end of the 2011 Giro, but come the Tour it was felt.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Contador looked fresh as a daisy at the end of the 2011 Giro, but come the Tour it was felt.

2011 Giro was a lot harder than 2024 Giro on top of Contador crashing in the Giro and Tour.

 

[Salvarani]

No Majka for the Tour? He isn't the strongest climber overall but he's very consistent and experienced.

I think Yates will basically act as Majka in the Tour. He did very well last year protecting/launching Pog as the last man and recovering fairly quickly to be able to assist again, when Pog/Vinge where marking each other.

Soler/Almeida should be improvements on Novak/Grosschartner.

They have one more climbing option in Sivakov, compared to Molano.

Politt/Wellens instead of Bjerg/Laengen.

Interesting part is how Ayuso will be used. Does he get to do his own thing to win the Youth Jersey or will he be used to on a couple of key stages to put serious pressure on the others before a Pog attack? Maybe both.

 

[Froome]

I also just think the Tour route is just really bad for Vingegaard, even in peak shape. I basically only really like the Plateau de Beille stage for him.

The route of last year was even worse for him.

 

[Gman]

his hometown today

 

[Red Rick]

I think Yates will basically act as Majka in the Tour. He did very well last year protecting/launching Pog as the last man and recovering fairly quickly to be able to assist again, when Pog/Vinge where marking each other.

Soler/Almeida should be improvements on Novak/Grosschartner.

They have one more climbing option in Sivakov, compared to Molano.

Politt/Wellens instead of Bjerg/Laengen.

Interesting part is how Ayuso will be used. Does he get to do his own thing to win the Youth Jersey or will he be used to on a couple of key stages to put serious pressure on the others before a Pog attack? Maybe both.

I think the only freedom Yates and Ayuso both get is to keep going to the line after they've done their job for Pogacar.

 

[AmRacer]

I think the only freedom Yates and Ayuso both get is to keep going to the line after they've done their job for Pogacar.

It also depends how strong the other three teams are.

 

[Salvarani]

I think the only freedom Yates and Ayuso both get is to keep going to the line after they've done their job for Pogacar.

Yes that is most likely to happen and I guess Yates is the one most likely to having to sacrifice himself, if needed to.

 

[Berniece]

3 weeks where no one has forced him and he has made the efforts when and how he wanted. To me this sounds like training, and in the hardest stages he looked very good after finish, I don't know if like a daisy, I'm not a botanist...

Right, because his training sessions are harder than Martinez giving his all…

 

[Nick2413]

He will need a higher level at the Tour to produce the same numbers of this Giro because of heat and harder overall racing. Question is what will actually be needed.

 

[Gigs_98]

I agree on Pogacar in 2023, I think the combination of minor illness/stomach issue and the crash explain his collapse much better than "not enough training" when he missed some training in the exact period where he'd take it the easiest.

For Vingegaard the problem I see isn't that he just has a limited time to get to his peak level, it's that the position he needs to recover from is gonna be much worse than what a Contador had to do in 2014. He wasn't at Tour level in Itzulia, he was near the end of his first racing block, and he spent a very significant amount of time so immobile it's gonna detrain very quickly.

The question is basically now if a rider can basically go from something similar to untrained December shape, which mind you is much better these days, to his very best level in about 6 weeks of training.

I don't think this is similar to injuries where the form is there and you just need to heal from the injury quickly and them bum rush a quick high intensity block. To me it's more similar to Evenepoel flailing around in his first Giro or Roglic getting surgery in late 2022 with Jumbo thinking he may not reach top shape by the Giro months later.

If anything, the idea that Vingegaard can be competitive at the Tour goes against just about everything I've learned about pro level training

Yeah I mostly agree. I'm also having a hard time seeing how this preparation can be good enough to get into Tour shape, but I also really don't know sh*t about sports medicine and pro training. His team seems to have believe that he can make it. Maybe they also don't believe in beating Pogacar in top shape, but if they believe in beating Roglic and Evenepoel that's good enough for me. Pogacar with the Giro in his legs is still a bit of an unknown. Contador was significantly weaker in the Tour during his double attempts, Quintana in 2017 was a complete catastrophe. This Tour has way more unknowns than just Vingegaards recovery so I can't count him out.

 

[Netserk]

2011 Giro was a lot harder than 2024 Giro on top of Contador crashing in the Giro and Tour.

Afaik, he did not crash in that Giro. Despite its hardness, he still looked fresh as a daisy in the third week.

The eye-test isn't the measure of fatigue.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah I mostly agree. I'm also having a hard time seeing how this preparation can be good enough to get into Tour shape, but I also really don't know sh*t about sports medicine and pro training. His team seems to have believe that he can make it. Maybe they also don't believe in beating Pogacar in top shape, but if they believe in beating Roglic and Evenepoel that's good enough for me. Pogacar with the Giro in his legs is still a bit of an unknown. Contador was significantly weaker in the Tour during his double attempts, Quintana in 2017 was a complete catastrophe. This Tour has way more unknowns than just Vingegaards recovery so I can't count him out.

My interpretation is that it's much more of a "Tour is lost any result is a bonus" shot with the Vuelta in mind. To me it's a rush to be in a race worthy condition, not a TdF winning condition. The other side of the picture is just Visma getting a lot of publicity out of Vingegaard training.

And I'm extremely bullish on Pogacar. He's not gonna be any worse than this Giro

 

[Netserk]

I have to say I enjoy this much more than that same old 'skeletor'/cyborg/area 51/new and updated iteration crap joke going on in the Vingegaard thread.

I'd only agree with that if not taking opportunity cost into account.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Afaik, he did not crash in that Giro. Despite its hardness, he still looked fresh as a daisy in the third week.

The eye-test isn't the measure of fatigue.

Researching further looks like you’re right. I just Denver from earlier there have been some saying Contador crashed in both.

 

[cen]

The only thing that saves July is a stratospheric Roglic performance and I am giving that a 10% chance.. we might be in for a "boring" tour.. :/