Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Oldermanish]

Agree. I am more thinking towards next year.

And that's hopeful projection...ing that I share.
Jonas' physical stature isn't of a former soccer player or ski jumper, used to taking heavy contact hits and recovering. He's built like the Danish climbing ballerina he is and his recovery is twofold: get all systems back to GO with no limitations on the basic ability to breathe. At that point you realistically deal with lost muscle mass and stature stability before you jump to some fitness regime that'll keep you from being dropped.

Bernal is a good case study for talent that had some back issues that also coincided with knee (?) and alignment consequences. He was always tracking several challenges to his best fitness and under a likely pressure from INEOS to keep riding or be out of contract. He is where he is now because he has no choice but be smart and measured. This is all my opinion from the sidelines but witnessing similar circumstances with talented athletes the process isn't mysterious. Even with heavy PED interventions this rider has to be confident the core is good or, for GT riders; excellent before assuming the next steps.

 

[Rob5091]

Jonas will field a team that can control the race and pace him back if needed. If Jumbo is as strong as we have seen in recent Tours, it will be very hard for Tadej to deliver on the double. What a feat it would be! What an opportunity! He can do it.

Visma have had zero luck with crashes and illness this year, so at the moment it seems Roglic and Bora are Pogacar's main rivals for the Tour. Also Pogacar's penchant for full gas racing might come come back and bite him if it's 30C for 3 weeks.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Great win by Pog again and puts the finishing touches on his Giro. Stinks he didn’t get to the 10 min mark (dang Narvaez) and crazy to think some don’t see an improvement from Pogacar when this isn’t his main goal and he’s performing like this especially compared to someone else’s performance on their secondary GT goal. It’s shaping up to be a great Tour for us viewers.

Visma have had zero luck with crashes and illness this year, so at the moment it seems Roglic and Bora are Pogacar's main rivals for the Tour. Also Pogacar's penchant for full gas racing might come come back and bite him if it's 30C for 3 weeks.

Maybe they’re drinking alcohol again for last years celebrations.

 

[Berniece]

Great win by Pog again and puts the finishing touches on his Giro. Stinks he didn’t get to the 10 min mark (dang Narvaez) and crazy to think some don’t see an improvement from Pogacar when this isn’t his main goal and he’s performing like this especially compared to someone else’s performance on their secondary GT goal. It’s shaping up to be a great Tour for us viewers

I also feel he improved compared to last year. Not by that much but enough to challenge Vingegaard at the TDF if both of them would be at their best.

I disagree that this wasn’t a main goal. I would even say that his performance emphasises this. Doubt he’ll be this good for 3 weeks straight in the TDF.

 

[AmRacer]

I also feel he improved compared to last year. Not by that much but enough to challenge Vingegaard at the TDF if both of them would be at their best.

I disagree that this wasn’t a main goal. I would even say that his performance emphasises this. Doubt he’ll be this good for 3 weeks straight in the TDF.

At the Giro, Pog has had quite a few easy days. At the Tour with harder competition, he won't have a single easy day.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I also feel he improved compared to last year. Not by that much but enough to challenge Vingegaard at the TDF if both of them would be at their best.

I disagree that this wasn’t a main goal. I would even say that his performance emphasises this. Doubt he’ll be this good for 3 weeks straight in the TDF.

Before the year, at the start of the season, and during the Giro he has said the Tour is the main goal. This can be shown by how easy he’s taken the race. His level will be higher, it’s just a question on his ability to sustain it.

 

[yaf]

I also feel he improved compared to last year. Not by that much but enough to challenge Vingegaard at the TDF if both of them would be at their best.

I disagree that this wasn’t a main goal. I would even say that his performance emphasises this. Doubt he’ll be this good for 3 weeks straight in the TDF.

It was obvious from his performances that the giro was not the biggest goal of the year. Get back to oropa, everyone expected him to beat pantanis time but was nowhere near that putting just 26 secs on his rivals. But as his manager said he built his form throughout the race and was on top shape in the 3rd week. And If pog is 1kg lighter at the tour then good luck to the "big" 3.

 

[yaf]

So obviously Vingegaards preparation for the Tour would be far from ideal, even if he can start. But what I fail to understand is this obsession of comparing his recovery to that of Pogacar last year and using the fact Pogacar got beaten as proof that even Poacars preparation last year wasn't enough to win. But that argument just takes it for granted that Pogacar could have been much better without the wrist injury which we have no proof of whatsoever. All things considered I think it's fair to say that he looked better last year than in 2022, so why should I think the injury made a big difference? Maybe a small one, maybe him cracking on Col de la Loze had something to do with bad preparation, but that's pure speculation.

My guess is, Vingegaard will not be good enough to win the Tour, but I'm not certain of that and I'm definitely not certain of it because of some comparison to an injury that left Pogacar in a shape in which he absolutely could have won the Tour. Some people wrote off Contador before the 2014 Vuelta, I'll not make that mistake with Vingegaard a decade later.

I agree we cant write off vingegaard for the tour and everyone reacts to an injury differently. In 2014 froome and contador had injuries with fractured wrist with froome and fractured tibia with contador which forced him off his bike for three weeks. We might say contador has the worst injury coz it was knee issue but In the vuelta froome was not himself for some days and contador was incredible.

I would say, the most difficult part of injuries is if they dont heal properly at the start of a difficult grand tour. it will make the recovery that u need for 21 days more difficult like roglic was in 2022 tour. U just can't recover after a day to day hard effort. Imo pogs crack on loze wasn't the less preparation but his still broken scaphoid derailed him throughout the race to just blowup in the 3rd week.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It was obvious from his performances that the giro was not the biggest goal of the year. Get back to oropa, everyone expected him to beat pantanis time but was nowhere near that putting just 26 secs on his rivals. But as his manager said he built his form throughout the race and was on top shape in the 3rd week. And If pog is 1kg lighter at the tour then good luck to the "big" 3.

The goal is to be 2 kg lighter

 

[Berniece]

Before the year, at the start of the season, and during the Giro he has said the Tour is the main goal. This can be shown by how easy he’s taken the race. His level will be higher, it’s just a question on his ability to sustain it.

I don’t agree that he’s taking it easy. Every mountain stage he took time, he went deep. He’s much better than the competition but that doesn’t mean you can freewheel to victory.

Just like Vingegaard goes deep to win his GT’s and 1-week stage races.

 

[yaf]

The goal is to be 2 kg lighter

Boss said 65 for giro and 64 for tour

 

[SHAD0W93]

I don’t agree that he’s taking it easy. Every mountain stage he took time, he went deep. He’s much better than the competition but that doesn’t mean you can freewheel to victory.

Just like Vingegaard goes deep to win his GT’s and 1-week stage races.

We shall find out soon.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Boss said 65 for giro and 64 for tour

Source? I remember someone saying he was supposed to have 63 kg in the Tour.

 

[Red Rick]

So obviously Vingegaards preparation for the Tour would be far from ideal, even if he can start. But what I fail to understand is this obsession of comparing his recovery to that of Pogacar last year and using the fact Pogacar got beaten as proof that even Poacars preparation last year wasn't enough to win. But that argument just takes it for granted that Pogacar could have been much better without the wrist injury which we have no proof of whatsoever. All things considered I think it's fair to say that he looked better last year than in 2022, so why should I think the injury made a big difference? Maybe a small one, maybe him cracking on Col de la Loze had something to do with bad preparation, but that's pure speculation.

My guess is, Vingegaard will not be good enough to win the Tour, but I'm not certain of that and I'm definitely not certain of it because of some comparison to an injury that left Pogacar in a shape in which he absolutely could have won the Tour. Some people wrote off Contador before the 2014 Vuelta, I'll not make that mistake with Vingegaard a decade later.

I agree on Pogacar in 2023, I think the combination of minor illness/stomach issue and the crash explain his collapse much better than "not enough training" when he missed some training in the exact period where he'd take it the easiest.

For Vingegaard the problem I see isn't that he just has a limited time to get to his peak level, it's that the position he needs to recover from is gonna be much worse than what a Contador had to do in 2014. He wasn't at Tour level in Itzulia, he was near the end of his first racing block, and he spent a very significant amount of time so immobile it's gonna detrain very quickly.

The question is basically now if a rider can basically go from something similar to untrained December shape, which mind you is much better these days, to his very best level in about 6 weeks of training.

I don't think this is similar to injuries where the form is there and you just need to heal from the injury quickly and them bum rush a quick high intensity block. To me it's more similar to Evenepoel flailing around in his first Giro or Roglic getting surgery in late 2022 with Jumbo thinking he may not reach top shape by the Giro months later.

If anything, the idea that Vingegaard can be competitive at the Tour goes against just about everything I've learned about pro level training

 

[Cookster15]

I don’t agree that he’s taking it easy. Every mountain stage he took time, he went deep. He’s much better than the competition but that doesn’t mean you can freewheel to victory.

Just like Vingegaard goes deep to win his GT’s and 1-week stage races.

But he didn't take time on every mountain stage. On Prati di Tivo he rode in with the GC group and out-sprinted them. In the Sterrato stage he held fire. He looks fresh as a daisy, not someone tired from going deep every day for three weeks.

 

[snipeheem]

Boss said 65 for giro and 64 for tour

I think it was 62 for tour 63 giro something like that

 

[ppanther92]

This is a pretty ambitious plan. Only one week off and then altitude Is it even a typical approach for doing the double? I though more rest between Giro and Tour was planned by guys in the past. Maybe they will start the camp easily and increase intensity in week2 and week3.

I don't know but a full week off the bike already seems long. Thought they would rather work with recovery rides. No way, one can be in top form, taking off 2-3 weeks fully with only 1 month to go...

 

[ppanther92]

If we think a little, we know Vingegaard won't be ready for the Tour. He spent 13 days in the hospital (he was even in intensive care) and then some time off the bike (I think 2 weeks). How can he be in peak shape ( or near peak shape) with 9 weeks to prepare the Tour? Even Pogacar can't do it last year with a wrist injury (he broke his hand 9 weeks before the Tour), how can Vingegaard do it with injuries way more severe? Tour is a mirage unfortunately.

Obviously not peak shape but I still wouldn't rule out that if he makes it and shows up, he will be one of the best. Take Pogacar out the last 2 years and he had similar gaps than Pogacar in this Giro. They are just levels above the rest.

 

[Salvarani]

I agree on Pogacar in 2023, I think the combination of minor illness/stomach issue and the crash explain his collapse much better than "not enough training" when he missed some training in the exact period where he'd take it the easiest.

For Vingegaard the problem I see isn't that he just has a limited time to get to his peak level, it's that the position he needs to recover from is gonna be much worse than what a Contador had to do in 2014. He wasn't at Tour level in Itzulia, he was near the end of his first racing block, and he spent a very significant amount of time so immobile it's gonna detrain very quickly.

The question is basically now if a rider can basically go from something similar to untrained December shape, which mind you is much better these days, to his very best level in about 6 weeks of training.

I don't think this is similar to injuries where the form is there and you just need to heal from the injury quickly and them bum rush a quick high intensity block. To me it's more similar to Evenepoel flailing around in his first Giro or Roglic getting surgery in late 2022 with Jumbo thinking he may not reach top shape by the Giro months later.

If anything, the idea that Vingegaard can be competitive at the Tour goes against just about everything I've learned about pro level training

Lets ignore the mental aspects of the crash that could affect a person and not having an ideal preparation. Not even thinking about the physical set back and having to do alternative training for weeks.

Saying he was gonna take it easy anyway is lazy and lame.

It also takes a lot of energy to heal and to recover, when he was supposed to "rest". His body and mind basically didnt get any rest at all.

We also dont know if he still rode with some pain or not in the Tour. Not mentioning the potential sickness, not recovering after the big effort in the TT etc.

Evenepoel and Roglic should be fine.

Vingegaard too. He is already training. Whats the problem? Keep it consistent.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Obviously not peak shape but I still wouldn't rule out that if he makes it and shows up, he will be one of the best. Take Pogacar out the last 2 years and he had similar gaps than Pogacar in this Giro. They are just levels above the rest.

When I wrote he won't be ready, I was writing about not being able to fight for the win unless Pogacar and Roglic crash out. And we are talking about Vingegaard, Tour defending champion, the last thing I want to see is a scenario similar to Remco in the 2021 Giro.

 

[Red Rick]

Funnily enough I don't think peak Vingegaard would be very scared of Pogacar's climbing in this Giro but would have a problem in the ITTs based on how things have gone lately

 

[Berniece]

But he didn't take time on every mountain stage. On Prati di Tivo he rode in with the GC group and out-sprinted them. In the Sterrato stage he held fire. He looks fresh as a daisy, not someone tired from going deep every day for three weeks.

I’m not saying every mountain stage, but those he took time. He doesn’t look fresh as a daisy, would be ridiculous after 3 weeks

 

[AmRacer]

I’m not saying every mountain stage, but those he took time. He doesn’t look fresh as a daisy, would be ridiculous after 3 weeks

That's why he takes one week off.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Funnily enough I don't think peak Vingegaard would be very scared of Pogacar's climbing in this Giro but would have a problem in the ITTs based on how things have gone lately

On these very mediocre mountain stages, the only time Jonas realistically could put Pogi in danger would be on Grappa. Close to impossible to beat him on this route.

 

[Red Rick]

On these very mediocre mountain stages, the only time Jonas realistically could put Pogi in danger would be on Grappa. Close to impossible to beat him on this route.

Probably. Jumbo A-team drilling first lap of Grappa would hit different.

I also just think the Tour route is just really bad for Vingegaard, even in peak shape. I basically only really like the Plateau de Beille stage for him.