Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[2WpK]

He will always have this handicap of being 5-10kg lighter than most PR riders but his aerobic system is also bigger than his rivals and PR is an endurance race.
If it's wet, I will not bet against Pogacar. He is a monster in wet conditions.

I think this thinking that weight has some benefit on cobbles is not as relevant as it used to be due to current use of wide, tubeless tires that can be run at much lower pressures.

 

[Cookster15]

Is it if you are technically gifted though? How many times have you seen really great riders crash out big time at Roubaix? Cancellara, Boonen, MVDP, WVA, etc.

No doubt those you list were technically gifted at riding PR. But others like Stuart O’Grady and Matt Hayman both crashed the years they won.

I have no doubt Pogacar is capable of winning PR but attempting PR this year seems like a lottery and unnecessary risk for a rider currently at the peak of his powers in Grand Tours and who still has time on his side.

ps - I have no idea how to delete below tables on my phone. Was going to list prior PR winners and their weights compared to Pog? If anyone knows appreciate any help? Or send me a PM.

 

[Shortcut]

Tadej has to race Paris-Roubaix this year. Let’s say he has five peak years ahead of him, meaning a whole decade at the top, which is already quite a long time for a cyclist. He might get injured at some point or decide to race the Tour of the Basque Country or the Giro, which would mean riding fewer classics. In his best years, even if he races Paris-Roubaix this year, he might only have around three real chances to win it. That’s very few opportunities for such an unsuitable race for him.
This year’s Paris-Roubaix would also be the only race where he wouldn’t be expected to win. The same could be said for Milan-San Remo, but even there, a second-place finish would feel like a disappointment for him. If he were to finish in the top 10 at Paris-Roubaix, however, that would already be a promising sign for the future, even for him.
Every other race this season (Flanders, Amstel, Flèche, Liège, Dauphiné, Tour, Vuelta, Worlds, Lombardia) will feel like a disaster if he doesn’t win, which is a lot of pressure—even for him. I think this would be the only race where he could actually enjoy himself even if he loses, which is why he is so determined to race it.

 

[kn0s]

I think this thinking that weight has some benefit on cobbles is not as relevant as it used to be due to current use of wide, tubeless tires that can be run at much lower pressures.

I think he will do fine on the cobbles he has shown that before. My doubt comes from the fact that his direct competition can push much greater watts. All the accelerations will push him alot. There is no gradient to push the advantage towards lower weigh. His opportunity is sneaking away at some point, then he will be hard to catch. Group two syndrome could kick in and he wins.

 

[yaf2]

IMO he should win at least 5 (two more) TdFs to equal the official record before he risks injury at PR. First he has to beat Vingegaard in the TdF this year in a fair fight with no excuses.

And I think we need to keep in mind he is much less suited to PR than SB. At PR he will be shoulder to shoulder with riders 20kg heavier than he is. And those cobbles are a bigger deal for lighter riders. If its wet would be unbearable watching.

Current focus must be defeating a fresh and uninjured Vingegaard this year in the rematch of the century. So no PR in 2025. I read today that UAE seems to agree.

Mate vingegaard is fighting for his life trying to win against almeida while saying he has made a step this year. Its over for july

 

[Monsi]

Mate vingegaard is fighting for his life trying to win against almeida while saying he has made a step this year. Its over for july

Kinda unfair to Jonas when we know he absolutely knows when to peak and that’s in July. In 2023, he was getting beaten by Gaudu in Paris-Nice and we all know what happened at the Tour that year.

 

[Cookster15]

Mate vingegaard is fighting for his life trying to win against almeida while saying he has made a step this year. Its over for july

I am a big Pog fan but this seems rather premature. We already know Jonas produced his best watts ever in losing the ‘24 Tour to Pog. But that was despite a very rushed and sub optimal prep after his massive April crash and serious injury. Hence he has to be better this year, both in his absolute peak watts and also not fading in the 3rd week.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Mate vingegaard is fighting for his life trying to win against almeida while saying he has made a step this year. Its over for july

Paris Nice started yesterday with a sprint stage.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I'm a cycling fan above everything. It would be remarkable to see Pogi in PR. I want him there and I know he can be competitive. I'm just upset he will not ride E3 if he races PR. E3 is perfect to prepare for RVV.

 

[Salvarani]

I'm a cycling fan above everything. It would be remarkable to see Pogi in PR. I want him there and I know he can be competitive. I'm just upset he will not ride E3 if he races PR. E3 is perfect to prepare for RVV.

I think he could still ride E3.

Skip GW, Amstel and maybe Fleche. Maybe even skip Ardennes altogether if he somehow manages a great result in PR and is tired. Everything not set in stone as of now. So much could happen in these races he wants to target.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think he could still ride E3.

Skip GW, Amstel and maybe Fleche. Maybe even skip Ardennes altogether if he somehow manages a great result in PR and is tired. Everything not set in stone as of now. So much could happen in these races he wants to target.

LBL is a must.
I hope he races:
MSR
E3
RVV
PR
AGR
FW
LBL
If he is too tired, remove AGR and FW.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

LBL is a must.
I hope he races:
MSR
E3
RVV
PR
AGR
FW
LBL
If he is too tired, remove AGR and FW.

It's a reasonable schedule without AGR and FW. He might add FW as a Liege warm-up though.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It's a reasonable schedule without AGR and FW. He might add FW as a Liege warm-up though.

15 days of racing. Without AGR and FW is 13 days.
If we add Dauphiné, is 23/21 days of racing. Not perfect before a Tour-Vuelta. But racing UAE Tour was mandatory.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

15 days of racing. Without AGR and FW is 13 days.
If we add Dauphiné, is 23/21 days of racing. Not perfect before a Tour-Vuelta. But racing UAE Tour was mandatory.

Doing RVV + PR + Ardennes triple is nuts. The guy wants to do Tour+Vuelta double, he's not simply a classic specialist peaking for spring races. RVV+PR double is exhausting and requires good rest.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Doing RVV + PR + Ardennes triple is nuts. The guy wants to do Tour+Vuelta double, he's not simply a classic specialist peaking for spring races. RVV+PR double is exhausting and requires good rest.

Yep, I think he should remove AGR and FW from his schedule.

 

[Divergence]

Tadej has a new fan. I just saw his interview where they asked him how great it was that he was the first World Champion who won Strade, and his response was that Lotte Kopecky won last year. That is pure class. Add to that his girlfriend saying that none of this success has gone to his head, and I'm finally convinced that not only is he the most talented rider to ever thorw his leg over a bike, but he is just a great human being.

Not going to join in the "GOAT" brigade, but I will be cheering him on in the future.

That was BS. Those are two different sports. It is like saying a chess world champion won a game of checkers played at Piazza del Campo hence Lotte is not the first world champion to win there. I dislike such pandering quotes.

 

[Divergence]

Doing RVV + PR + Ardennes triple is nuts. The guy wants to do Tour+Vuelta double, he's not simply a classic specialist peaking for spring races. RVV+PR double is exhausting and requires good rest.

I think we saw last year that he was in no danger of getting exhausted at any point in the season. I guess politics prevented him riding the Olympics and the Vuelta, but there is no doubt in my mind that he would have been at his best there as well. He can do whatever he wants basically.

 

[Netserk]

That was BS. Those are two different sports. It is like saying a chess world champion won a game of checkers played at Piazza del Campo hence Lotte is not the first world champion to win there. I dislike such pandering quotes.

I think a more analogous example would be to say that Van der Breggen wasn't the first rider to win both the WCRR and the WCTT in the same year, as Evenepoel won the (male) junior versions two years before.

 

[Divergence]

I think a more analogous example would be to say that Van der Breggen wasn't the first rider to win both the WCRR and the WCTT in the same year, as Evenepoel won the (male) junior versions two years before.

Sure that is more similar but I wanted to point out the absurdity to the max .

 

[Axel Hangleck]

He will always have this handicap of being 5-10kg lighter than most PR riders but his aerobic system is also bigger than his rivals and PR is an endurance race.
If it's wet, I will not bet against Pogacar. He is a monster in wet conditions.

A wet PR is a lot different to a normal wet road race........

 

[Peyroteo94]

A wet PR is a lot different to a normal wet road race........

It is on the surface but everything else is the same.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think we saw last year that he was in no danger of getting exhausted at any point in the season. I guess politics prevented him riding the Olympics and the Vuelta, but there is no doubt in my mind that he would have been at his best there as well. He can do whatever he wants basically.

Don't be silly. He didn't race in February and August for a reason.

 

[Wyndbrook]

Sure that is more similar but I wanted to point out the absurdity to the max .

Perhaps it's not absurd.

 

[AmRacer]

15 days of racing. Without AGR and FW is 13 days.
If we add Dauphiné, is 23/21 days of racing. Not perfect before a Tour-Vuelta. But racing UAE Tour was mandatory.

It's like 6 weeks of resting and build peak form between LBL and Dauphine.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It's like 6 weeks of resting and build peak form between LBL and Dauphine.

A heavy spring will not take a tool in the Tour. I know he will be in top shape however I don't have the same feeling for the Vuelta if he goes hard (too many classics in March and April) in the spring. We can't look only to race days. Doing a PR is not the same as doing a sprint stage in UAE.
After LBL, he will probably "rest" for a week and then he will start his most important training camp to build his shape for the Tour. May is where cyclists like Pogacar work to win the Tour.