To confirm this, we would have had to have seen Almeida in the same physical condition in the mountains of the Tour.You were right. Almeida is closer to Vingegaard than Vingegaard to Pogacar.
For example, it's impossible to conclude that Van Aert is better than Pogacar due to Paris stage. It's very different from what happened in De Ronde. The Tour left them truly fatigued. Almeida has been injured for a few days, but his legs didn't climb any of the Tour's mountains. It's difficult to evaluatethat difference, but I think the difference would have been bigger in Vingegaard's favor at the Tour.
The route was also a determining factor. I can't believe Pidcock is actually 2:38 behind Vingegaard and less than 2 minutes behind Almeida. In fact, in the Tour, I think Hindley would be way ahead of Pidcock.