Tadej Pogacar and Mauro Giannetti

[Stablo]

All legends have a highly suspicious development because we can't really acknowledge their ceilling when they are 16-19 years old. What is the point of this conversation? Is he doping? Of course he is, just like everybody. The only question should be, is he using motor doping (and others don't)? This is the only reason I can find to this discrepancy of level. I don't think he uses so my only explanation is his genetics are way better than everybody else.

In many other sports you know the generational talents even before the age of 16-19 and the ceilings/greatness theyre likely going to achieve. Given many examples before here and they are currently dominating or were dominating their sport at their time. Of course not all of the generational talents make it big in the pro sports(many things can happen), but the ones that do make it, have been usually known from quite a young age. And even still they usually dont dominate in the style Poggie has done this season, which in away makes monsters performances even more absurd.

And im not in anyway saying that Poggie didn't have room for development and improvement. But imho this current level is absurd, not normal and unnatural kind of development.

 

[ppanther92]

...

One day stage races in Junior ranks are a whole different animal though. 2018: LBL is 173km, RvV is 165km. In LBL, Pogacar didn't start (team was not invited), in RvV it was a mass sprint (and Hirschi apparently the better sprinter back then).

Pogacar was still on a local team, Hirschi was on Sunweb.

Pogacar won the races that mattered for him as a GC rider back then: Avenir but also Grand Prix Priessnitz (so 2 out of 2 GCs in his last Junior season). Pogacar won another adult GC in Italy, Hirschi not (not until 2023 actually). Pogacar finished a strong Tour of Slovenia as 4th.

Pogacar scored more points than Hirschi based on Procyclingstats scoring, at age 18, 19, and almost exactly the same at 20 than/as Hirschi (which granted, was a great Junior season for him). (https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider-vs-rider/tadej-pogacar/marc-hirschi)

And most important point - lets not forget Hirschi was thrown out of DSM for a "breach of trust". Whatever this means, he for sure was destined for greater things in 2020 than he actually has shown afterwards. So not sure, his 2018 and 2019 should be considered the clean talent gold standard...

Anyway, if we compare Pogacar with Hirschi and Evenepoel it should already be clear that he was among the greatest talents of the last decade.

 

[ppanther92]

Merckx, Hinault, LeMond, Coppi, Anquetil, Moser, De Vlaeminck, Kelly, Gimondi, Saronni, you name it, their results were simply outstanding as soon as they started entering races. Pogacar's level as a pro so far means can only be compared to that level of rider. So far his results as a young teenager don't match up to any of them, even if they are still very, very good.

Pogacar won the one race that matters for a teenager racing for GCs - Avenir. He tried once, he won once. With 19, against older guys. Mäder was 21 in that edition, Vlasov 22, Almeida and Gall 20. And its simply also a fact that there are a lot more Junior results available nowadays. I can look up for Pogacar that he finished Junior Paris - Roubaix as 30th at 16. But what does it give? Not his focus, nor the age to win something in U21. For old guys it only shows wins or top 3 (more is usually not available for those races).

Other than that, its like if I would say De Vlaeminck is a weird case in the classics. After all he finished only 28th in the Amateurs RvV in 1967 (https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-des-flandres-espoirs/1967/result), or Indurain getting 50th at 21 in the 1985 Tour de l'Avenir (https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-l-avenir/1985/gc), or whatever.

 

[ppanther92]

And to quote the 2nd post in his RR thread:

Celebrating his overall win at the Tour de l'Avenir:

Signing for UAE:

It doesn't look like he was an early bloomer in bodily development, tbh. So combining his results, body, and local team - I think his results as Junior were exceptional.

 

[Saint Unix]

To address the Hirschi comparisons...

Some dude was claiming Pogacar was always a Merckx level talent. That's about as bombastic a statement as you can make when it comes to cycling, and it simply doesn't stand up to scrutiny. I chose to compare to Hirschi because
A) He's in the same team
B) They're the same age (born less than a month apart)

A Merckx level talent comes along once or twice a century, yet you don't even have to travel beyond Pogacar's own team to find a rider who consistently and conclusively outperformed Pogacar when they raced each other, for four straight years. I wasn't trying to argue against Pogacar's talent. I was calling out how utterly ridiculous a statement it is to say that Pogacar was anywhere near being such a unique talent before joining UAE.

And Pogacar's pre-UAE years matter. A lot. What did Armstrong show before joining Postal? What did Froome show before joining Sky? What did Vingegaard and Roglic show before Visma? Riders' performance levels exploding after joining shady teams and/or team-wide performances suddenly going through the roof out of nowhere are pretty much the main themes of the last 35 years or so of cycling, and there's one common denominator every time. It's a giveaway when it's some 27 year old potato from the autobus, but it's still suspect as hell when it's some young kid.

I don't doubt for a second that the peloton have learned from the random mid-20s transformations of yore and are actively working to find and sauce up their new super-responder stars as soon as possible these days. If they've been amazing since we started juicing them as teenagers they can't question them, right? Somehow missed the memo on staying below 6W/kg along the way though, or maybe that rule of thumb doesn't apply when you start them young enough that you can say the once-a-century level talent was always there.

Looking at it realistically, the jump required to go from being one of a few standout riders in the U23s and juniors to podiuming a grand tour as a 19-year-old first year pro is completely unheard of. As in, it literally hadn't been done ever in the professional era of the sport until UAE comes along with TWO OF THEM in quick succession in Pogacar and Ayuso. How remarkable! I bet they complete the hat-trick with Del Toro next month because f*** it, why not? Merckx level talents everywhere! All from the same team! Very normal, much cleans.

 

[Peyroteo94]

To address the Hirschi comparisons...

Some dude was claiming Pogacar was always a Merckx level talent. That's about as bombastic a statement as you can make when it comes to cycling, and it simply doesn't stand up to scrutiny. I chose to compare to Hirschi because
A) He's in the same team
B) They're the same age (born less than a month apart)

A Merckx level talent comes along once or twice a century, yet you don't even have to travel beyond Pogacar's own team to find a rider who consistently and conclusively outperformed Pogacar when they raced each other, for four straight years. I wasn't trying to argue against Pogacar's talent. I was calling out how utterly ridiculous a statement it is to say that Pogacar was anywhere near being such a unique talent before joining UAE.

And Pogacar's pre-UAE years matter. A lot. What did Armstrong show before joining Postal? What did Froome show before joining Sky? What did Vingegaard and Roglic show before Visma? Riders' performance levels exploding after joining shady teams and/or team-wide performances suddenly going through the roof out of nowhere are pretty much the main themes of the last 35 years or so of cycling, and there's one common denominator every time. It's a giveaway when it's some 27 year old potato from the autobus, but it's still suspect as hell when it's some young kid.

I don't doubt for a second that the peloton have learned from the random mid-20s transformations of yore and are actively working to find and sauce up their new super-responder stars as soon as possible these days. If they've been amazing since we started juicing them as teenagers they can't question them, right? Somehow missed the memo on staying below 6W/kg along the way though, or maybe that doesn't apply when you start them young enough that you can say the once-a-century level talent was always there.

Looking at it realistically, the jump required to go from being one of a few standout riders in the U23s and juniors to podiuming a grand tour as a 19-year-old first year pro is completely unheard of. As in, it literally hadn't been done ever in the professional era of the sport until UAE comes along with TWO OF THEM in quick succession in Pogacar and Ayuso. How remarkable! I bet they complete the hat-trick with Del Toro next month because f*** it, why not? Merckx level talents everywhere! All from the same team! Very normal, much cleans.

Your post was good until you mentioned Ayuso. Who is Ayuso?? Not even a top10 climber in the world. These hot takes without any logic kill me

 

[E_F_]

Nole was way worse than Nadal and he is now the GOAT, beating consistently Nadal over the years.

Doping is widespread in tennis...

 

[NOT_NORMAL]

You are mixing up different questions. We were discussing if talent can be judged on junior results, not if Pogacar is clean. The question so is rather not that if he is clean (I don't know who's posted in the thread recently does so except for one or two), but if he is a generational talent, clean or not. The argument that he isn't based on Junior results doesn't work, as has been laid out.

It worked for Froome.

The only question should be, is he using motor doping (and others don't)? This is the only reason I can find to this discrepancy of level. I don't think he uses so my only explanation is his genetics are way better than everybody else.

His genome must have changed a lot over the past year then, considering he improved by like 10% during that time.

 

[Saint Unix]

Your post was good until you mentioned Ayuso. Who is Ayuso?? Not even a top10 climber in the world. These hot takes without any logic kill me

Right, so let's see if I've got this right then?

Finishing 3rd in the Vuelta in their first year as a pro at 20 years old = Merckx level talent.

Finishing 3rd in the Vuelta in their first year as a pro at 19 years old = Who the **** even IS that guy?

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

It worked for Froome.

Froome is a totally different case. Pogacar was an exellent Junior. Froome won his first pro race at 26. Pogacar is bound to have 100 wins before he turns 27....

 

[Netserk]

This is a pointless argument. How young do we need to go? The same old posters wearing them self out here but with a blind eye to their hero (never admitted).

Of course he is likely doping, like the others, but when Pog joined UAE he was still growing. At 19 or 20 the line is blurred and not everyone matures athletically at the same age or rate. Many variables at 19 or 20, not just doping.

If it's pointless, then I think that should be pointed out to the one who made the point.

It's a very strong claim to say that one particular rider is the single most talented one of the past 50 years. If there is anyone else who has a stronger claim to that, or if it's too hard to say who is the most talented, then that goes against the claim that Pogi is the most talented rider since Merckx.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

In many other sports you know the generational talents even before the age of 16-19 and the ceilings/greatness theyre likely going to achieve. Given many examples before here and they are currently dominating or were dominating their sport at their time. Of course not all of the generational talents make it big in the pro sports(many things can happen), but the ones that do make it, have been usually known from quite a young age. And even still they usually dont dominate in the style Poggie has done this season, which in away makes monsters performances even more absurd.

Two things:
(1) which sports would that be and who are we talking about? LIke knowing their ceilings especially. How would you even do that?
(2) so your assumption seems to be whoever is very very good in an early age should be seen as a generational talent, and some who are generational talents don't make it, while other not so generational talents outperform them later?

And im not in anyway saying that Poggie didn't have room for development and improvement. But imho this current level is absurd, not normal and unnatural kind of development.

No one is arguing it is normal, just as noone would argue Vingegaards comeback or level of performance was normal. Or Derek Gee being better than peak Froome is normal, who's resultwise an all time great GC rider.

 

[Salvarani]

Right, so let's see if I've got this right then?

Finishing 3rd in the Vuelta in their first year as a pro at 20 years old = Merckx level talent.

Finishing 3rd in the Vuelta in their first year as a pro at 19 years old = Who the **** even IS that guy?

In his first year he won Algarve, a pro race, and California before his excellent Vuelta.

What exactly did Merckx do in his first pro years that was so exceptional or fortelling that he would have the career he would have?

Why would Pog have to win every race in his first year to showcase he was that type of talent?

He showed more than enough that he could have potential for greatness and has achieved it, which isnt a given no matter what you have done before or the end of how much more someone can improve. He had showed a great level of potential before going pro, which anyone cant argue with as been pointed out.

And nobody was saying Pog was Merckx-level after 3rd place in the Vuelta... it is something that has come with time as he has hit milestone after milestone.

 

[Slavique Nuke]

From my post: "Pogacar was admittedly far better in stage races, including l'Avenir which he won."

https://www.readingrockets.org/reading-101/reading-and-writing-basics/reading-comprehension

[[deleted untrue accusation and personal attack]] While Pog won the biggest race in that age category which you are trying to sell as a footnote.

The guy is at age 18, just behind WT-level top climbers in a stage like this. No one in the current peloton has performed at this level in the mountains at the age of 18, except Pogacar.[[deleted accusation]]

 

[Peyroteo94]

Right, so let's see if I've got this right then?

Finishing 3rd in the Vuelta in their first year as a pro at 20 years old = Merckx level talent.

Finishing 3rd in the Vuelta in their first year as a pro at 19 years old = Who the **** even IS that guy?

And now where is Ayuso?

 

[Peyroteo94]

In his first year he won Algarve, a pro race, and California before his excellent Vuelta.

What exactly did Merckx do in his first pro years that was so exceptional or fortelling that he would have the career he would have?

Why would Pog have to win every race in his first year to showcase he was that type of talent?

He showed more than enough that he could have potential for greatness and has achieved it, which isnt a given no matter what you have done before or how much more someone can improve.

These folks don't even know (me included) how good was Merckx in his youth but like to say Merckx was an unique talent lol.

 

[E_F_]

Looking at PCS I think it's fair to say that Pogacar didn't stand out at all in a pretty untalented year of juniors. Loads of nobodies have won l'Avenir...

 

[Salvarani]

These folks don't even know (me included) how good was Merckx in his youth but like to say Merckx was an unique talent lol.

It is funny. I am enjoying it.

 

[Salvarani]

Looking at PCS I think it's fair to say that Pogacar didn't stand out at all in a pretty untalented year of juniors. Loads of nobodies have won l'Avenir...

He was younger than them and he beat them with over a minute, with one of the weakest teams.

 

[E_F_]

He was younger than them

2nd place Arensman is literally younger than him.

 

[Salvarani]

2nd place Arensmann is literally younger than him.

Who has also done great as a pro and rode for one of the strongest teams.... looking at the GC you will realize it was a very strong edition, which even more showcases the talent of the rider winning.

 

[Barkintheeye]

One thing where pundits and analysts actually could try to do some qualitative analysis is on Pogacar's development between 2023 and this year.

In 2023 some of his major results were:
GDL #1: Solo attack 32K from finish, av speed 40,2 km/h 52 seconds before #2/3 vs 39,8 km/h in 2022 at a sprint
WC #3: outsprinted by WVA, MVDP on solo attack
TDF #2: 7'29" behind Vingegaard and 3'30" in front of A Yates
Fleche Wallonne #1
Amstel Gold Race #1
RVV #1: 16 secs before MVDP at an av speed of 40,1 km/h more or less the same as MVDP win this year
E3 Saxo: #3
MSR #4: 15 sec behind MVDP
Paris-Nice #1: 53 sec before Gaudu and 1' 39" before Vingegaard

In general a very successful season and world class performance by a solidly established 24 years old pro road rider already competing more than 5 years against serious opposition (since 2018). Now what to expect for 2024? New coach and a significantly stronger UAE team. Early career development could easily be some +5% capacity improvement per year, or may be even more. How does Pog 2024 stack up against Pog 2023?

Strade Bianche #1: fastest (40,3 kph) and most altimetres (3700) longest race (215K) since inception from a solo attack 81K out winning by 2'44"
MSR #3: Shut down on Poggio by MVDP otherwise a likely win
Volta a Catalunya #1: 3'41" in front of Landa
LBL #1: 1'31" in front of Bardet in a fast edition (40,9 kph) yet slightly slower than 2022 (41,4 kph) and 2023 (41,2 kph)
Giro #1: 9'56" in front of Martinez at the fastest edition ever (41,9 kph)
Tour #1: 6'17" in front of Vingegaard at the second fastest edition ever (41,8 kph)

Some power estimates suggests that Pog's improvements are in the possible range of "normal" and stemming from i.a. smarter training (motor pacing, Tabatha-intervals etc), better nutrition and some unspecified technical improvements (30 mm tyres?).

1. What yearly increase is reasonable to expect from a well-established seasoned world tour rider at the absolute top level?
[Possibly some 2-3% should be achievable and if everything would align perfectly maybe even as high as 5%?]

2. What is Pog's estimated increase in 2024 compared to 2023?
[My guess is well over 10%]

The massive improvement compared to the already strong performance in 2023 is the ONE thing that really sticks out. If adding Pog's exceptional recovery and really no signs of fatigue (despite UAE's decision to pull him out of the Olympics) it paints a familiar picture we haven't seen since Armstrong and Landis.

 

[Monoxidator]

All legends have a highly suspicious development because we can't really acknowledge their ceilling when they are 16-19 years old. What is the point of this conversation? Is he doping? Of course he is, just like everybody. The only question should be, is he using motor doping (and others don't)? This is the only reason I can find to this discrepancy of level. I don't think he uses so my only explanation is his genetics are way better than everybody else.

Fans of dopers always excuse their fanboyism by saying "They all are doping" but it's just not true. It's such a sick and evil mentality to throw accusations at other riders just in the cause of excusing your favorites.

A more accurate way of putting it would be that the first clean rider is probably someone that finished 15+ minutes down on Pogacar in the tour.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Fans of dopers always excuse their fanboyism by saying "They all are doping" but it's just not true. It's such a sick and evil mentality to throw accusations at other riders just in the cause of excusing your favorites.

A more accurate way of putting it would be that the first clean rider is probably someone that finished 15+ minutes down on Pogacar in the tour.

This made me laugh. You have no clue... you could say Pogi has better doping methods but claiming João Almeida, Landa, Yates, etc are clean is just naive.
Maybe in Merckx time, there were clean riders since most of them were amateurs but Merckx tested positive 3 times. Doping is like checking tyre pressure, everyone does on a daily routine.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

1. What yearly increase is reasonable to expect from a well-established seasoned world tour rider at the absolute top level?
[Possibly some 2-3% should be achievable and if everything would align perfectly maybe even as high as 5%?]

2. What is Pog's estimated increase in 2024 compared to 2023?
[My guess is well over 10%]

The massive improvement compared to the already strong performance in 2023 is the ONE thing that really sticks out. If adding Pog's exceptional recovery and really no signs of fatigue (despite UAE's decision to pull him out of the Olympics) it paints a familiar picture we haven't seen since Armstrong and Landis.

This is true, but also not just of Pogacar even though his jumps to be one of the largest. It might be a little smaller than the looks (not talking significantly here) maybe because last season didn't go as planned after the already brutally strong dismantling of VdP at the Ronde. He crashes, manages to blow himself up again at the Tour also, according to himself, not having the greatest of Forms. Maybe there was progress we didn't get to see. Add to that the new coach, if he's really much better that should also account for something.
But nonetheless the jump is to extreme to be explained naturally. But that's the case for many riders. The jump in overall performance, and in performance spikes by the best riders, according to watts2win e.g. is absolutely *** staggering. Like they went into a specific time capsule to train with normal time going slower. But this isn't Dragon Ball but professional sports, so I guess that possibility is out of the window.