Being selective in what evidence there is to somehow suggest or even claim that what Pogacar is doing is not particularly extraordinary, is not very convincing. Instead we need to look at all of the evidence available to ascertain whether or not what we are being sold is genuine greatness or something else entirely. Much of this evidence is, no doubt, circumstantial in its nature because it cannot be be otherwise unless and until a whistleblower comes forward to give sworn testimony or at least on or off the record accounts of what may or may not be the facts.
Indeed, given also that he effectively has enjoyed his unprecedented success riding for merely a renamed and more lavishly funded Saunier Duval team, whose history and leadership reputations need no further explanation, a historically aware cycling fan might be forgiven our star cyclist’s credibility is already more than a little dubious from the outset.
In law, circumstantial evidence is not “weak.” It’s simply
non‑direct. A jury can convict on it if the pattern of facts makes any innocent explanation implausible.
Sport works the same way:
- We know the approximate limits of human physiology.
- We know what elite performance normally looks like.
- We know how rare true outliers are.
- We know the sport’s history of deception.
So when someone performs
far above a field of world‑class athletes, the performance itself becomes a data point that demands interpretation. Such evidence, when analysed holistically, provides enough information to strongly suggest, given the overall context of the sport’s history and current state, that Mr Pogacar is at least worthy of very close and sceptical attention. So, what’s the evidence, at least what we definitely know.
Pogačar wasn’t beating amateurs — he was beating the best in the world
This is the part people often gloss over. We’ve had plenty of examples of that here.
He wasn’t outperforming a weak generation. He wasn’t winning by a few seconds. He wasn’t simply “better.” He was:
- Younger
- More explosive
- More versatile
- More consistent
- More dominant across all terrains
- Dominant across the entire racing season
- More resilient under fatigue
- Immune to the impact of bad crashes
- Winning by often huge margins
And, since he turned professional, he was doing it against seasoned, highly trained, physiologically elite professionals and across all types of races across the entire race calendar, not merely targeting his efforts to ensure the best chance of success and guard against fatigue and injury. Able to beat anyone, anywhere at anytime. All the time.
When one rider suddenly appears head and shoulders above a field that is the fastest in history, it is natural — and rational — to ask what explains the gap. Not claim that there is none.
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram