Tadej Pogacar and Mauro Giannetti

[Cookster15]

You make several assumptions about aero advantage and larger body mass....I can tell you that bigger rouleurs can murder small, tired guys on the flats; particularly if the smaller guys are tired or there is a wind.

Agree. The assumption is shorter means more aero. If this was true the best TTers would always be small riders - except its the opposite. The aero drag equation is Cd x A. As well as their power advantage taller riders usually have a longer flatter more aero back. So better Cd to offset the greater frontal area (A).

 

[Oldermanish]

More evidence the biological passport is great in theory but not in practice. Since the 2020 Giro there seems a step up in the peloton. I wonder how hard the UCI is really trying? Not sure they want to catch any big fish let alone Pogacar. Much easier to let the show go on.

There's also the possibility that everyone's historical numbers have advanced based on non-ped innovations that it's difficult to chart outliers. That; and perhaps there are recovery aids just on the edge of legal we don't know about.
As I said earlier; unless the Vampires track them down at the far-flung altitude camps and test there what value can we assume from reported profiles? Like you said in practice; it may be a beaten system.

 

[Ripper]

Not sure Ayuso's entitled non team player attitudes at UAE have any link whatsoever to Pogi's doping? Ayuso seems a bit delusional about where he sits in that team. He hasn't been reliable support for Pog and that was evident at the Tour before he dropped out. Almeida showed how it should be done.

Ayuso is only 22. But if he was really that confident of his ability he should forget money and go to another team where he is the number one rider. Except he just signed with UAE until 2028. When Ayuso signed that contract he knew all about Pogacar good, bad and ugly.

No idea about Ayuso. But he seems to be the closest someone at UAE might be when it comes to disgruntled. FAIK he just is a jerk. Then again, perhaps he has seen stuff that doesn't jive with his morals. No idea!

 

[Oldermanish]

Not a realistic possibility, considering WADA blanket bans compounds with the modes of action that would cause such a crazy performance enhancement.

I'd hope so. Pre-cursors pretty much cover everything unless there is an otherworldly sleep aid that turns 4 hours of sleep into a magical 11 hr recovery.
As for the first part of the statement; a consistent rise in overall performance based on better nutrition, training and resting is possible.

 

[Oldermanish]

That's why a second tier rider having career "numbers" and results will be where they'll start after the current UCI guy gets his dream job and leaves.
That'll show those dirty riders!

Kinda like this:
Franck Bonnamour has announced that he's calling an end to his cycling career, citing the financial strain of attempting to fight against his suspension from racing over biological passport anomalies.


The UCI provisionally suspended the Frenchman in February over "unexplained anomalies in his biological passport", which reportedly arose following a test on stage 20 of the 2022 Tour de France.


Bonnamour's team, Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale, fired him in late March, having stated that the case dated to "checks carried out before his arrival in the team on January 1, 2023." In the meantime, he has continued to fight his case, insisting that he is innocent of the charges.

As I noted above the top guys are very visable and adored by their countrymen and most other riders respect them. Lance was clearly another type of businessman and sought out the same sort of guys to cover for him.

Hard to say but history usually provides us with a candidate from a second tier racer/team that suddenly has results that aren't explainable. It helps if their own federation isn't in bed with them or the UCI has an axe to grind. The top guys now are independent and would work in a small circle. Visma has moved on from riders, trainers and administrators lately; there could be some disgruntled retirees from that pool but it's a guess.

 

[Rob5091]

It's really not, unless we're supposed to accept the sports science did nothing for 20 years and then started improving performance by 5% per year or some ludicrous number starting in 2020.

My favorite part in all of this is many of the modern 'inventions' cited you can literally find research papers dating back 20 years saying the same damn thing.

The nutrition angle especially, where the narrative becomes that they basically discovered eating carbohydrates is good, and that's why they went up by a full W/kg makes my *** eyes bleed

Not only will 120g/hour up your speed but means you'll ride faster all day plus recover to be 100% ready to go the next day. Damn those gels sure are something!

 

[Oldermanish]

It's really not, unless we're supposed to accept the sports science did nothing for 20 years and then started improving performance by 5% per year or some ludicrous number starting in 2020.

My favorite part in all of this is many of the modern 'inventions' cited you can literally find research papers dating back 20 years saying the same damn thing.

The nutrition angle especially, where the narrative becomes that they basically discovered eating carbohydrates is good, and that's why they went up by a full W/kg makes my *** eyes bleed

Sorry your eyes are bleeding but, as you point out the discipline of race feeding and recovery isn't all new science.
It has been ignored by antiquated programs that won't spend money to support adequate measures and racetime support.
It's helpful for progressive improvement that refugees from sh*tty support programs, like Movistar: spend their own dough to determine what keeps them competitive in a one week race. Actually a program that supports several one week races where they beat Remco and almost defeat Primoz. That rider also is able to finish a Tour towing his team's Golden Boy through troubled sections to finish what were that riders "best numbers" for a Tour podium guy. The self-supporting rider also picked up a couple one day wins.
The point was referring to the general peloton getting more educated and that cohort able to compete more completely with results following. It makes the discussion less simplistic for those that want a dirty villain but it does contribute to a higher general performance. It's not just a cover for a dominant rider claiming the major prizes from March to October, though. Wipe those eyes, Red. It's all good.

 

[Oldermanish]

Problem is just that none of the arguments hold up.

1. The notion that nobody got their feeding right while the science was out there is extremely implausible. Especially when we do have evidence for teams absolutely chasing marginal gains like bubble wrap TT suits
Never suggested nobody got it right. That almost all riders are getting closer to perfection, discipline and race support would increase performance to a broader rider base.
2. Performances are going way past previously established limits of oxygen consumption. Therefore these improvements cannot only be due to higher availability of the correct substrate, but there must be higher oxygen consumption, which is mostly done using oxygen vector doping. Agreed, particularly in established riders that show sudden improvement.

3. Results of better carbohydrate uptake would be directly mimicked by higher fat oxidation at the same intensity but being at a lower % of overall VO2 max.

4. The pattern in changes of performance between easy unipuerto days, MTTs and very hard stages hasn't changed all that much. Nearly all riders will still do much bigger numbers on an easy stage rather than a very hard multi mountain stage, and I don't think the gap between these has changed all that much. Based on what? It appears that more riders are able to confidently hang in tougher climbs; until they can't.

5. Optimal feeding, especially if it's based on relatively old science, should if anything cause more riders to perform at their ceiling, and should thus increase the population of competitive riders at the top, not decrease it.
That's who I'm referencing-the general peloton. See response to 4 above. Key to this is race support in the form of quality pre-race meals, and timely delivery during an event. Bad teams wreck their chances and some have a reputation for weak support. With the exception of this year's Pogacar romps the number of riders involved in tight podium competition has become more of the norm with week long and 3 week races having serious parity into the last stages.
To me, the nutrition argument doesn't pass the sniff test in any way, and we're only talking about it cause so many pundits and riders who are clearly part of the Omerta are talking about it. Not in any way?

Not part of any Omerta effort.

 

[troll hunter]

I mean, Chris Froome's face is right in the thumbnail

Froome is cool, he's just a cheater, not a war criminal.

 

[Pannenkooky]

There's also the possibility that everyone's historical numbers have advanced based on non-ped innovations that it's difficult to chart outliers. That; and perhaps there are recovery aids just on the edge of legal we don't know about.
As I said earlier; unless the Vampires track them down at the far-flung altitude camps and test there what value can we assume from reported profiles? Like you said in practice; it may be a beaten system.

I think they've figured out how to microdose or use something that isn't detectable. Back in the day they figured out how to microdose EPO so that it wasn't detectable, I'm sure the doc at UAE has the bases covered

 

[Oldermanish]

I think they've figured out how to microdose or use something that isn't detectable. Back in the day they figured out how to microdose EPO so that it wasn't detectable, I'm sure the doc at UAE has the bases covered

....and at Visma, Redbull, Soudal/QS, Alpecin. Good news travels fast and we may be missing that it's a more effective use of the old and the new.

 

[Pannenkooky]

....and at Visma, Redbull, Soudal/QS, Alpecin. Good news travels fast and we may be missing that it's a more effective use of the old and the new.

Do you think the playing ground is level and Pogi's just the best of it? When you mention it, I can't wait to see Remco catch up.

 

[Oldermanish]

Do you think the playing ground is level and Pogi's just the best of it? When you mention it, I can't wait to see Remco catch up.

The only way to know is if, somehow; all of these marquee Dudes show up healthy enough to compete. A season is long and trying to get back on track even missing a week or two with illness can wreck training plans. The shortcuts that can be taken to catch up usually come with a toll later on; particularly with broken bones that affect nerves and muscle function.
It doesn't help that the teams totally lack patience and pressure their stars to get back in the game.

 

[Cookster15]

Do you think the playing ground is level and Pogi's just the best of it? When you mention it, I can't wait to see Remco catch up.

Currently this is what I think. I don't think Remco will catch up let alone surpass Vingegaard. Only reason I think this was before and even during the Tour Remco himself said Pogacar was untouchable. I don't think he held that view because he wasn't on the same "sauce".

 

[Tricycle Rider]

The only way to know is if, somehow; all of these marquee Dudes show up healthy enough to compete. A season is long and trying to get back on track even missing a week or two with illness can wreck training plans. The shortcuts that can be taken to catch up usually come with a toll later on; particularly with broken bones that affect nerves and muscle function.
It doesn't help that the teams totally lack patience and pressure their stars to get back in the game.

I'm questioning Pog's longevity - I think Pog is, no doubt, an amazing talent, but at what cost will he remain on the top? In terms of longevity I kind of feel like he's currently burning the candle on both ends, so it'll be fascinating to see how long he can last.

 

[Extinction]

Currently this is what I think. I don't think Remco will catch up let alone Vingegaard. Only reason I think this was before and even during the Tour Remco himself said Pogacar was untouchable. I don't think he held that view because he wasn't on the same "sauce".

This would apply to say Armstrong vs Ullrich too, no? Unless you think Lance was genetically superior to Jan. Or did Lance just have the better program, guidance, etc.? "Same sauce" is not the only factor, but responsiveness, alchemy and protection are others. So the only way to know is if everybody were clean. But that's not possibile.

At any rate, unless Pogacar has adverse side effects, Remco won't catch up.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

This would apply to say Armstrong vs Ullrich too, no? Unless you think Lance was genetically superior to Jan. Or did Lance just have the better program, guidance, etc.? "Same sauce" is not the only factor, but responsiveness, alchemy and protection are others. So the only way to know is if everybody were clean. But that's not possibile.

At any rate, unless Pogacar has adverse side effects, Remco won't catch up.

Realistically I don't see Remco being able to catch up either no matter how much weight he loses, Pog, in addition to being a talent, may also be a better responder. And it's not very helpful that Remco seems to have such a defeatist attitude before the race even starts, at least I haven't observed that from Vingo's camp. (Vingo has to focus on getting back to 100%, he may still be the only one who can challenge Pog in the Tour.)

 

[Oldermanish]

This would apply to say Armstrong vs Ullrich too, no? Unless you think Lance was genetically superior to Jan. Or did Lance just have the better program, guidance, etc.? "Same sauce" is not the only factor, but responsiveness, alchemy and protection are others. So the only way to know is if everybody were clean. But that's not possibile.

At any rate, unless Pogacar has adverse side effects, Remco won't catch up.

Those two were different personalities if their life outcomes is any indication. Ullrich certainly had the training aids on his side but his discipline to continue was not there.
Pogacar, like Remco and Jonas are at risk of succumbing to over-pressurized expectations. Roglic has the advantage of seeing retirement on the horizon but those other guys have to deal with serious situations. In the context of the Armstrong/Ullrich comparison Jonas might be the first to walk away. He seems to prioritize his family's happiness and probably doesn't lust for the cash and notoriety of Pogi and Remco. Both of whom have just enjoyed a seriously impressive year. Attrition could be the major impact on the sport's current top guys; kinda like it always has been.

 

[Extinction]

Those two were different personalities if their life outcomes is any indication. Ullrich certainly had the training aids on his side but his discipline to continue was not there.
Pogacar, like Remco and Jonas are at risk of succumbing to over-pressurized expectations. Roglic has the advantage of seeing retirement on the horizon but those other guys have to deal with serious situations. In the context of the Armstrong/Ullrich comparison Jonas might be the first to walk away. He seems to prioritize his family's happiness and probably doesn't lust for the cash and notoriety of Pogi and Remco. Both of whom have just enjoyed a seriously impressive year. Attrition could be the major impact on the sport's current top guys; kinda like it always has been.

Vingegaard doesn't seem to like the spotlight and pressure that comes with being Tour champion. Although I actually think, doping aside, Ullrich had way better genetics than Armstrong. The German simply had head issues to a degree that the American didn't in a cavalier way. Now take into consideration a Ferrari working exclusively with Lance and Jan, well, being Jan, loses out even on a good program. Only a clean playing field gives us any real indication of what one is capable of doing on natural talent, minus the psycho-head issues one may have.

As far as Pogacar and Remco is concerned, let's hope the Belgian can reasonably close the gap, otherwise we'll have to endure 100 km triumphal marches from February to October from Gianetti's protege for another six years.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Vingegaard doesn't seem to like the spotlight and pressure that comes with being Tour champion. Although I actually think, doping aside, Ullrich had way better genetics than Armstrong. The German simply had head issues to a degree that the American didn't in a cavalier way. Now take into consideration a Ferrari working exclusively with Lance and Jan, well, being Jan, loses out even on a good program. Only a clean playing field gives us any real indication of what one is capable of doing on natural talent, minus the psycho-head issues one may have.

As far as Pogacar and Remco is concerned, let's hope the Belgian can reasonably close the gap, otherwise we'll have to endure 100 km triumphal marches from February to October from Gianetti's protege for another six years.

Obviously Remco can still improve and he's also quite young but as far as the near future is concerned IMO Vingo is the only man who may threaten Pogi's dominance.

 

[YellowSocks]

As far as Pogacar and Remco is concerned, let's hope the Belgian can reasonably close the gap

I hope he won't...

 

[Oldermanish]

Vingegaard doesn't seem to like the spotlight and pressure that comes with being Tour champion. Although I actually think, doping aside, Ullrich had way better genetics than Armstrong. The German simply had head issues to a degree that the American didn't in a cavalier way. Now take into consideration a Ferrari working exclusively with Lance and Jan, well, being Jan, loses out even on a good program. Only a clean playing field gives us any real indication of what one is capable of doing on natural talent, minus the psycho-head issues one may have.

As far as Pogacar and Remco is concerned, let's hope the Belgian can reasonably close the gap, otherwise we'll have to endure 100 km triumphal marches from February to October from Gianetti's protege for another six years.

Agree on Ullrich's genetics. Former teammate rode against him when Jan was first/second year pro and said he was a good rider. That was in Deutsche/Telcom era. Jan also was affected by East German early sports. The threshold for considering doping a moral issue was probably absent. Armstrong knew what he was doing before he was even a senior amateur and wanted more. He just lacked a moral barrier at all to ambition.

I would have to think that Pogacar has graduated from the Gianetti influence to a great degree and that may explain last year's season-long improvement. He has much to risk with his circle of coaching and having the team DS still involved is a bad business decision. Remco may still carry the load of too much family counsel on such matters and follows an older regime.
Vindegaard is a pure product of whomever has coached him. Their challenge is to build him up again as the Prime Contender and he may not be psychologically up to it. Easier to reach a peak than stay there and make the personal sacrifices.

 

[Cookster15]

Obviously Remco can still improve and he's also quite young but as far as the near future is concerned IMO Vingo is the only man who may threaten Pogi's dominance.

Agree with this. But after he was spanked in 2022 and 2023 by Vingo, 2024 must have been a psychological breakthrough for Pogacar. And we should also keep in mind he is nearly two years younger than Vingegaard. But I will be surprised if Remco can challenge Pog in the next three years.

 

[Pannenkooky]

This would apply to say Armstrong vs Ullrich too, no? Unless you think Lance was genetically superior to Jan. Or did Lance just have the better program, guidance, etc.? "Same sauce" is not the only factor, but responsiveness, alchemy and protection are others. So the only way to know is if everybody were clean. But that's not possibile.

At any rate, unless Pogacar has adverse side effects, Remco won't catch up.

Remco's faster in TTs, mostly. And he's hungry. Can't discount that. As for Lance v Jan...Lance was far more disciplined, and psychologically he wore down Jan, I think. Jan had a cycle of gaining weight in the off season and I think mental health stuff contributed to him getting stuck in the "eternal second" spot and not always showing his full potential. Daniel Friebe's book on Ullrich has a lot of insight into this

 

[Peyroteo94]

Remco's faster in TTs, mostly. And he's hungry. Can't discount that. As for Lance v Jan...Lance was far more disciplined, and psychologically he wore down Jan, I think. Jan had a cycle of gaining weight in the off season and I think mental health stuff contributed to him getting stuck in the "eternal second" spot and not always showing his full potential. Daniel Friebe's book on Ullrich has a lot of insight into this

He is faster in flat TTs. Why I am saying this? These days, Tour is designed with a pattern. There is always a hilly TT or a MTT so Remco will end up losing time in TTs against Pogacar.
2025 Tour will have a MTT
2024 Tour had a MTT or hilly TT
2023 Tour had a hilly TT
2022 Tour no
2021 Tour no (Pogacar still won the flat TT)
2020 Tour had a MTT
2019 Tour had a hilly TT
2018 Tour had a hilly TT
2017 Tour no
2016 Tour had a MTT or hilly TT

So if Remco wins a tiny margin in flat TTs (he can't gain a lot on Pogacar), he will end up losing even more in the MTT or hilly TT.
Other pattern even more important is how they are reducing TTs mileage since Armstrong's era. So unless Remco close the gap in the mountains, he won't be a factor in TdF against Pogacar or Vingegaard.