There is no "agenda"?
I simply find last year's Vuelta weak in terms of GC field and i honestly don't understand there is such an upset about me thinking so. It's an opinion, not an agenda. (Or at least i wouldn't know what makes it an agenda, since that implies you have ulterior motives for something). You claim Valverde is like Nibali... He's not though. As far as GT/GC performances, Nibali is by far the better cyclist. As much as you may like Valverde (there are a lot of reasons to like him, and in some things he's better than Nibali, i agree) he is not nearly as good a GC rider as Nibali. On top of that, he is also 4 years older than Nibali. When a guy, then 38, who once won one GT (the "most mellow" one of all), 10 years earlier, before a doping ban, finishes 2nd, i think it's safe to say the line-up was not very impressive. Pogacar did fantastic, but still finished behind Valverde. The fact that Roglic couldn't beat Nibali and Carapaz in Italy, and the fact that the two guys on the podium behind him weren't exactly guys that "should" be in the mix for a GT win, for me is very telling. The fact that Teuns, Knox (and i do not rate these guys highly as GC riders, and have stated so in the past numerous times) only finish just outside the top 10. That Kelderman, who had been riddled with injuries most of the year, has always been somewhat of an underachiever, finished 7th and still better than the year before. CF Hagen finished 8th. I mean, seriously. Before the race started didn't most of us think it was either gonna be Lopez or Roglic? Lopez disappointed, sure, Quintana did what was expected (or about what i expected at least). It boggles my mind a bit that some people keep seeing it as a personal insult that i found 2019 Vuelta disappointing in that sense. My reference for 2019 Vuelta isn't Pogacar, it's Valverde. We all know what he can do, but we also know, that he isn't a top tier GT/GC rider, and at 38 of age, shouldn't be on the podium of what would be seen as anything but a weak and underperforming line-up.
To compare it to this year's Giro lineup (or the one that was innitially in the cards) holds no water. Nibali, Carapaz, Yates, all won a GT before, and unlike Valverde and Quintana have still been very much in the mix in the past couple of years. This years Giro GC lineup might not have been "bigger" in terms of quantity, but certainly in terms of quality, imho. I'm talking about the pre-corona line-up. That's my opinion. Now with Yates possibly dropping the Giro, it remains to be seen if others take his place (or if he sticks to riding the Giro). If not, then it might end up being similar i guess.
Since you bring up Evenepoel, this is actually a reason why i do want Evenepoel to ride the Giro (instead of Liège), because i'm very aware the opposition isn't the best. The route suits him and, yes IF he proves he can follow the big boys for 3 weeks and in the high mountains (and to me, that is still a big IF, regardless of what i think of him as an allround talent) he might have a chance to surprise. Could he win? I would still say no (few months ago i said top 20 would be great... but that was before Algarve), but on the other hand, if he's good enough to finish top 5, a guy like him might very well be good enough to win it as well, i guess? As an overall talent, i think i rate him higher than Pogacar, but whether he will be better over 3 weeks (especially in his first GT)? At this moment, i'm still inclined to say "no", i'm afraid he will get carried away and pay the price later on. Unlike Pogacar, he's still relatively new to cycling, has very little experience (racing tactics, riding economical etc for more than 5 days), didn't even ride l'Avenir. But i am very aware of the fact that should he prove to be up to perform 3 weeks in a row, and if they can contain him, that this year might be a great opportunity for Evenepoel to do something great. And so if he does, i'll be the first to admit the line-up was not much better than last year's Vuelta ;-) An aging Nibali, no Bernal, no Froome, Dumoulin or Roglic... While it would be glorious for a 20 year old, i'm not a lunatic as you seem to take me for, and as such wouldn't claim it to be anywhere near a top field simply because he did well. Well, unless the line-up changes significantly by October.
Great reply, thank you. Of course everyone is entitled to their own opinion.
I'm not arguing Nibali vs Valverde as GC riders in general. Of course Nibali has been better throughout their careers. Like Koronin as our Movistar and Valverde expert explained, Valverde in La Vuelta is a different beast. Shorter and steeper climbs fits him like a glove. He is always a threat to be on the podium there. Even with Froome, Roglič, Dumoulin, Nibali, Bernal... on the startlist.
I think we both agree that you can't use the A>B, B>C therefore A>C logic in cycling. It's not an exact science. There are millions of variables that specify the outcome of a race, especially a three week race like a GT. So I'm not going into details of what went wrong for Roglič in the Giro, because I won't change the mind of those who haven't yet accepted that his illness, peegate and DS incompetence were not science fiction but a reality show. All I say is...If Nibali and Carapaz beat Roglič in one GT, that doesn't tell me a whole lot to me in the gran scheme of things. What happened when Froome beat Contador in a GT for the first time? Did that tell you a lot? And what happened when the next year Contador returned the favour to Froome? Did you change your mind or were you of the same opinion? Oh wait, but the following year Froome came out ready and showed Contador who is the boss. So your opinion now is...ufff, I've lost track already, what about you? Maybe it's better to wait for a couple of years and then decide who is who, what do you think? I honestly can't decide who is better between them and where they stand in terms of best GT riders in the World. We know who Nibali is, he is still going strong. I need to see more from Roglič and even more from Carapaz. Let's give them a couple of years.
Pogačar. Why is he not supposed to be there on the podium? It is maybe because he hadn't achieved a podium before that? No ***, it was his first attempt in his first year as a pro. I don't understand the logic..."
Well, he doesn't have the result yet so I don't believe he is capable of doing it. He has to show me first then I'll believe it. " This always applies, doesn't it. Remember a certain Andy Schleck. He was 2nd in the Giro in which he wasn't supposed to, because he hasn't show us before that he is capable of achieving such result. So the only sensible decision is to proclaim the 2007 field weak even though in becoming 2nd he beat former Giro winners and legends like Simoni, Cunego, Savoldelli, Garzelli and a guy named Cobra who somebody of you might have heard of (Nibali was 19th BTW). This Andy guy hears the rumours of a weak field and decides to make all the Tour fields weak in the following years. So he collects a bunch of 2nd places in the Tour. It's a little known fact that he's awarded the Tour title in exchange for one of those second places, not because of clinic reasons, but because Tour organisers had enough of this weak field farce going on. Little they knew that by doing so the field became even weaker ha!
I am half joking with the paragraph above of course. I wanted to use also this year's Tour for reference and Bernal's victory, but things are a little bit different for the Tour. There are almost supposed to be all the best cyclist in the World at the moment, including all the best GC riders. That wasn't the case in 2019, but that doesn't change the fact that Bernal was going to be one of the favourites to win with or without all the best, even though he hasn't done it before.
Even though I find it sillier and sillier the comparison between the Vuelta 2019 and Giro 2020 startlist , because the Giro startlist is only imaginary for now and we won't know who is going to be at the start till October (hopefully), I'm still going to replay to some of your points:
1. I don't know Hagen that well. It was his first GT. He might become a perennial top10 GC rider or even better for what we know. Also he entered in top10 thanks to a breakaway and hung on for dear life to stay in the 10. Congrats to him. You have every now and then riders who enter in top 10 thanks to breakaway more often in the Giro than in other GTs. Jan Polanc has two of those If I'm not mistaken (twice top15 I checked).
2. All the riders I mentioned (20 names cca) in my first post are all candidates for a top 10 spot in any Giro or Vuelta they enter if the startlist isn't an outlier. The 2019 Vuelta had also some casualties at the top (i.e. Uran, Krujswijk). Try to imagine the Giro 2020 without two of the top contenders and think of what the final top 10 would look like
3. For some time we've been spoiled with the Froome vs Contador vs Nibali vs Valverde vs Purito battles in La Vuelta, but the lists of top contenders weren't always that strong. Remember recently it was also a Yates vs Mas vs Lopez battle, a Doumulin (who at the time really wasn't suppose to be not even close in that situation) vs Aru vs Majka battle, a Chris Horner opera, a Nibali (when he wasn't Nibali yet) vs Anton battle, an unknown (are you kidding me) Froome vs Cobo battle and so on...
4. Sorry I forgot what I wanted to say. Maybe later or tomorrow I'll remember.
My whole point is that judging the strength of the GT field is not always black and white and it's extremely hard to do. Anyone can twist things in ways to support their narrative. Having said that, after all I've written, I have to say that our opinions aren't that dissimilar and I agree with you on a lot of things (including on Evenepoel). I can accept if you think that the 2019 Vuelta field is on a weakish side. I think it was average. To compare it with Giro 2020 we'll need to wait. Maybe not just till October but for a couple of years.