TdF '17 - stage 5: Vittel>La Planche des Belles Filles 160km

[clydesdale]

Re: TdF '17 - stage 5: Vittel>La Planche des Belles Filles 1

I voted for Aru, so I expect I should pick him. Instinctively, it seems like a climb he'd like. More generally, I don't think the time gaps will be more than a handful of seconds between whoever ends up being the cream of the crop this early (which may mean nothing grand scheme).

Aru
Froome, Quintana, Thomas (+3)
Bardet (+7)
Contador, Porte, Majka, Meintjes (+20)

 

[Robert5091]

Sky train leads Dawg & LRP to top - Froome gets yellow, the race is over, we can all go back to our day jobs.
(The only hope is that Landa's "radio does not work" and he attacks!)

 

[Kjellus]

Dream scenario would be for Chaves to sneak away with the win. *Smile*

 

[Red Rick]

I'm also very interested in what Quintana does today.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

I'm gonna go with a daft win for Martin, with the other favourites all within about 20s of each other. I think Contador will do his own race and leave the others to do battle with him staying close by reserving energy for later in the race. I think he will go on the attack later in the 3rd week and try and get yellow before the TT when he may have a little more energy than the others.

 

[Robert5091]

Teams need to go from ca 20 km out - where the road starts going up - Aru & Fugelsang or Movistar or Yates & Chaves. Otherwise it's following Sky.

 

[python]

conta will be the1st to go...but after what i saw in the 1st itt, my guess is that it is the nairo stage.

froome will run out of road he needs to rev up the engine...

 

[del1962]

Either Porte to win by a small gap from Froome or they finish together and Froome wins sprint

 

[saneguy]

I'd actually love to see Thomas dragging Froome to the top and then distancing him and take the stage.

2012 in loop mode. Actors changed though

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Thomas to pull a Froome.

 

[MartinGT]

Re: TdF '17 - stage 5: Vittel>La Planche des Belles Filles 1

Betancur FTW!

 

[spalco]

It would be funny if Thomas plays with Froome the way Froome played with Wiggins in 2012.

edit: just saw I'm the third guy having that thought in the last five comments, sorry, should've finished reading the thread first.

 

[DFA123]

Got a feeling for Aru here. He looks to be on peak form, he's aggressive, he may be given a bit of rope by Froome/Porte/Quintana and he has the kind of style which will make a win on 20% gradient look epic.

 

[dacooley]

Re:

Got a feeling for Aru here. He looks to be on peak form, he's aggressive, he may be given a bit of rope by Froome/Porte/Quintana and he has the kind of style which will make a win on 20% gradient look epic.

his inferior climbing class (thus far) might be an issue. would be really surprised about none of froome and porte being the strongest from gc contenders.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Got a feeling for Aru here. He looks to be on peak form, he's aggressive, he may be given a bit of rope by Froome/Porte/Quintana and he has the kind of style which will make a win on 20% gradient look epic.

his inferior climbing class (thus far) might be an issue. would be really surprised about none of froome and porte being the strongest from gc contenders.

I thought he looked just about the strongest out of everyone on Mont Chat in the Dauphine - which has pretty similar gradients.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The beginning of Buchmann's TDF Dominance

 

[TourOfSardinia]

I predict a Yo-yo moment

 

[King Boonen]

Barguil, Latour, Meintjes, Froome, De Gendt.

Nothing to do with my Velogames team at all, obviously...

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Got a feeling for Aru here. He looks to be on peak form, he's aggressive, he may be given a bit of rope by Froome/Porte/Quintana and he has the kind of style which will make a win on 20% gradient look epic.

his inferior climbing class (thus far) might be an issue. would be really surprised about none of froome and porte being the strongest from gc contenders.

I thought he looked just about the strongest out of everyone on Mont Chat in the Dauphine - which has pretty similar gradients.

yes, but he wasn't marked as much as first tier contenders who were playing their own game on Chat imo

 

[Eclipse]

If Porte doesn't win this we can write him off winning the tour on the back of his own strength

I like the Aru suggstion as well as an outside bet. He's a strong rider on a climb like this and usually looks to animate things if his legs are there. Think there's a decent chance he'll be left to ride away for a bit if he goes early too given the others will probably be looking at each other.

 

[May0maniac]

If he's actually a marked man I don't see Aru winning here, the climb is probably a bit too short for him.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

Thomas to pull a Froome.

G is too heavy, I think. Won't be among the very best today, IMO

 

[MartinGT]

I am surprised that Sky havent tried getting shut of yellow for now. They have pressure on them with carrying it for so long. The press confs, the interviews, and especially today, they have the pressure now to control the race.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

If he's actually a marked man I don't see Aru winning here, the climb is probably a bit too short for him.

I would think he would be.

This climb isn't as steep as some are thinking. For all of it bar the end 200m it stays in single digits, Mont Du Chat us far steeper.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

There's nothing quite like the first MTF of the Tour. Probably my favourite cycling day each year.

Better than last few K of Fleche?

Those are the best 3 minutes of cycling.