TDF 2016 design to give all the 'big 4' an equal chance?

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Personally I would have only four MTFs, and spread them around as much as possible to stop the usual thing of the last week being mountain-dominant but everyone being too tired to take full advantage of it, and over 120km of TTing.

120km of ITTing combined with only 4 MTFs would mean the likelihood of winning would be 80% for Froome, 8% Contador, 8% Nibali and 4% Quintana. Not an exactly equal chance

Sorry I completely lost sight of the purpose of the OP. I think Contador and Froome would have an equal chance under those rules anyway.

Only if Froome crashes Contador would lose about 3 minutes on Froome in those ITT km.

 

[hrotha]

- Cobbles. Real ones, not like this year's (yes, last year the rain had a massive impact, but the cobbles by themselves were also harder).
- Crosswinds are great, so make sure the first week has some stages with a good chance of featuring them.
- Proper time-trialing. At least 90 km of ITT (55 flat + 35 hilly, for example).
- At least one +230 km properly designed mountain stage, with most others being around 175-220. Short mountain stages are fine for a change and should definitely be included, but we need to make sure the contenders have proper endurance.

This kind of parcours should favour Froome and an in-form Contador (though I doubt he'll be at his best next year). While it doesn't favour Quintana as much as this year's ridiculously lopsided route, it'd give him more than enough opportunities to take back time, effectively making sure he earns his status or stops being one of the big anything. Nibali wouldn't be a top favourite, though.

 

[bajbar]

Re: Re:

Personally I would have only four MTFs, and spread them around as much as possible to stop the usual thing of the last week being mountain-dominant but everyone being too tired to take full advantage of it, and over 120km of TTing.

120km of ITTing combined with only 4 MTFs would mean the likelihood of winning would be 80% for Froome, 8% Contador, 8% Nibali and 4% Quintana. Not an exactly equal chance

Sorry I completely lost sight of the purpose of the OP. I think Contador and Froome would have an equal chance under those rules anyway.

Only if Froome crashes Contador would lose about 3 minutes on Froome in those ITT km.

I don't agree. I don't think Froome would have gained a single second on Contador on the Giro TT this year. Contador in top shape is at least equal in time trialing to Froome, especially if the course is not completely flat.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I would like to see the penultimate day time trial (~40 km) balanced by a MTT. I would also get rid of the TTT unless it is a short one on stage one. But that is obviously not possible for 2016 based on the released start details.

EDIT. agree with those who dislike the backloading of mountain stages for 'drama'.

 

[TMP402]

A serious one for all four of them
Prologue (1.2km)
Stage 1: hilly finish
Stage 2: sprint stage with huge crosswind probability
Stage 3, 4: boring flat sprint stages
Stage 5, 6: hilly finish
Stage 7, 8: MTF
Stage 9: hilly finish
Stage 10, 11: MTF
Stage 12, 13: flat sprint
Stage 14: an ITT starting 100m before the top of the Col d'Allos, then the descent and the climb to Pra Loup
Stage 15: hilly finish
Stage 16: flat sprint
Stage 17, 18 MTF
Stage 19: Mont Ventoux ITT
Stage 20: Champs-Élysées

 

[Brullnux]

60km of ITT, 40 flat/slightly rolling and an MTT of about 20km up Mont Ventoux, or another difficult climb. The flat ITT will help Froome and Contador and to a lesser extent Nibali, who is a strong TT-ist when in top shape (see 2014). The MTT will be awesome to see, all of them are good climbers and I still don't know in top, top shape who is the strongest in an MTT, as we have never seen them all in top shape at the same time and never in a MTT apart from Nibali and Contador where Nibali lost 30-40 seconds but Contador was insane in 2011 and Nibali has improved a lot, and we know Nibali is great in MTT after the Giro 2013, and Quintana in Giro 2014. Froome? He time trials up some mountains when he can't deal with the attack so he will be good.

The descent of Monte Crostis, in the rain
Seriously, 2 or more technical long descents either as the finish or before another climb.

A long mountain stage 230km+ with little or no flat. Froome's biggest weakness in my opinion is a long, attritional race in rain with up and down (Tirreno 2013, WC 2013).
/
A stage for Froome that is _________________/

Tricky first week

Cobbles

4/5 MTF's. And an easy one after a hard climb.

Actually, I'd rather see them all at the Giro

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Re:

60km of ITT, 40 flat/slightly rolling and an MTT of about 20km up Mont Ventoux, or another difficult climb. The flat ITT will help Froome and Contador and to a lesser extent Nibali, who is a strong TT-ist when in top shape (see 2014). The MTT will be awesome to see, all of them are good climbers and I still don't know in top, top shape who is the strongest in an MTT, as we have never seen them all in top shape at the same time and never in a MTT apart from Nibali and Contador where Nibali lost 30-40 seconds but Contador was insane in 2011 and Nibali has improved a lot, and we know Nibali is great in MTT after the Giro 2013, and Quintana in Giro 2014. Froome? He time trials up some mountains when he can't deal with the attack so he will be good.

The descent of Monte Crostis, in the rain
Seriously, 2 or more technical long descents either as the finish or before another climb.

A long mountain stage 230km+ with little or no flat. Froome's biggest weakness in my opinion is a long, attritional race in rain with up and down (Tirreno 2013, WC 2013).
/
A stage for Froome that is _________________/

Tricky first week

Cobbles

4/5 MTF's. And an easy one after a hard climb.

Actually, I'd rather see them all at the Giro

Do you work for The Hitch as he is Monte Crostis Propoganda Minister?

 

[SeriousSam]

You cannot give them an even chance because the best climber among them is also the best time trialler, as he showed in 2013.

All I want is a long MTT.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

You cannot give them an even chance because the best climber among them is also the best time trialler, as he showed in 2013.

All I want is a long MTT.

Don't think you can declare Froome the best climber given that Quintana appeared to peak in the 3rd week, while Froome peaked in the 2nd

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

You cannot give them an even chance because the best climber among them is also the best time trialler, as he showed in 2013.

All I want is a long MTT.

Wouldn't that skew the odds even further in favor of the guy who is both the best climber and the best time trialler?

 

[Eclipse]

You can't have a parcours that gives all the top 4 an equal chance. The nice thing about Cycling is that you can have parcours for the same event that suit different riders and it's up to the others to overcome that.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

You cannot give them an even chance because the best climber among them is also the best time trialler, as he showed in 2013.

All I want is a long MTT.

Don't think you can declare Froome the best climber given that Quintana appeared to peak in the 3rd week, while Froome peaked in the 2nd

It's been reported Froome was suffering from sickness towards the end.

Quintana is better at recovering than seemingly anyone, though, a huge asset, even if his absolute best up a mountain isn't quite Richie Porte's level.

 

[TheGreenMonkey]

Re:

- Cobbles. Real ones, not like this year's (yes, last year the rain had a massive impact, but the cobbles by themselves were also harder).
- Crosswinds are great, so make sure the first week has some stages with a good chance of featuring them.
- Proper time-trialing. At least 90 km of ITT (55 flat + 35 hilly, for example).
- At least one +230 km properly designed mountain stage, with most others being around 175-220. Short mountain stages are fine for a change and should definitely be included, but we need to make sure the contenders have proper endurance.

This kind of parcours should favour Froome and an in-form Contador (though I doubt he'll be at his best next year). While it doesn't favour Quintana as much as this year's ridiculously lopsided route, it'd give him more than enough opportunities to take back time, effectively making sure he earns his status or stops being one of the big anything. Nibali wouldn't be a top favourite, though.

Excellent post, agree with it all.

This year had a lack of real mountains stages as well as a lack of TTing. The lack of a couple of really long mountain stages probably hurt Quintana a bit, although not as much as the lack TTing hurt Froome.

If you make the mountains stages of a good length and one of the two TTs is a hilly one where being a good climber is a good thing then you can have a lot of TTing.

Four MTF is enough also long as they are well designed and there is other mountain stages (2 or 3) with descent finishes and some good hilly stages as well. If a mountain stage is short (<150km) it needs to be jam packed full of climbs from start to finish and the other mountains stages need to be all quite a bit longer. Mountain stages cannot have a long flat period to the finish, it is just stupid and almost guarantees a boring stage.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

You cannot give them an even chance because the best climber among them is also the best time trialler, as he showed in 2013.

All I want is a long MTT.

Don't think you can declare Froome the best climber given that Quintana appeared to peak in the 3rd week, while Froome peaked in the 2nd

It's been reported Froome was suffering from sickness towards the end.

Quintana is better at recovering than seemingly anyone, though, a huge asset, even if his absolute best up a mountain isn't quite Richie Porte's level.

True, guess we'll find out more if Froome really was ill over the next few days. I for one was surprised Froome cracked like that given how low his level was in the Dauphine, suggesting he'd be a lot better in the 3rd week than he was in 2013 (and he lost the same to Quintana on Alpe d'Huez despite suffering a hunger knock in 2013, and probably in worse form by that point)

 

[whittashau]

Re:

Just force Froome to ride with Barguil on every descent - it would become equal very quickly

Barguil was hit by TJVG before he hit Thomas. He's actually a very good descender

 

[saganftw]

i want a downhill TT

 

[willbick]

Re: Re:

You cannot give them an even chance because the best climber among them is also the best time trialler, as he showed in 2013.

All I want is a long MTT.

Don't think you can declare Froome the best climber given that Quintana appeared to peak in the 3rd week, while Froome peaked in the 2nd

It's been reported Froome was suffering from sickness towards the end.

Quintana is better at recovering than seemingly anyone, though, a huge asset, even if his absolute best up a mountain isn't quite Richie Porte's level.

True, guess we'll find out more if Froome really was ill over the next few days. I for one was surprised Froome cracked like that given how low his level was in the Dauphine, suggesting he'd be a lot better in the 3rd week than he was in 2013 (and he lost the same to Quintana on Alpe d'Huez despite suffering a hunger knock in 2013, and probably in worse form by that point)

I cant believe Froome was genuinely ILL in the last few days. OK he may have had a v mild bit of bronchitis or something but any genuine illness would have stopped him winning. You dont ride up alp duez a minute behind quintana if you are ILL. TJVG was genuinely ill - he couldnt ride uphill faster than a pensioner and had to pull out of the race immediately.

I think its more likely that Froome simply doesnt have the long term stamina to be at his strongest over a long tour and on tough multi mountain stages c.f. Quintana who basically gets better the tougher it gets. Its no coincidence that Froome put in his best performance in the first MTF stage which was an easy stage with a hard single climb. That suits him best

 

[Poursuivant]

Has there been any rumours of next years parcours? I know it starts in France, but that's about it. You would expect more TT, I will predict a hilly TT of 35km.

 

[GP Blanco]

Re:

A serious one for all four of them
Stage 14: an ITT starting 100m before the top of the Col d'Allos, then the descent and the climp to Pra Loup

I like the idea, but even Zomegnan would not come up with this madness.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

You cannot give them an even chance because the best climber among them is also the best time trialler, as he showed in 2013.

All I want is a long MTT.

Don't think you can declare Froome the best climber given that Quintana appeared to peak in the 3rd week, while Froome peaked in the 2nd

It's been reported Froome was suffering from sickness towards the end.

Quintana is better at recovering than seemingly anyone, though, a huge asset, even if his absolute best up a mountain isn't quite Richie Porte's level.

True, guess we'll find out more if Froome really was ill over the next few days. I for one was surprised Froome cracked like that given how low his level was in the Dauphine, suggesting he'd be a lot better in the 3rd week than he was in 2013 (and he lost the same to Quintana on Alpe d'Huez despite suffering a hunger knock in 2013, and probably in worse form by that point)

I cant believe Froome was genuinely ILL in the last few days. OK he may have had a v mild bit of bronchitis or something but any genuine illness would have stopped him winning. You dont ride up alp duez a minute behind quintana if you are ILL. TJVG was genuinely ill - he couldnt ride uphill faster than a pensioner and had to pull out of the race immediately.

I think its more likely that Froome simply doesnt have the long term stamina to be at his strongest over a long tour and on tough multi mountain stages c.f. Quintana who basically gets better the tougher it gets. Its no coincidence that Froome put in his best performance in the first MTF stage which was an easy stage with a hard single climb. That suits him best

It clearly wasn't severe, but at elite level, anything that leads to even a slight reduction in performance is significant

 

[SeriousSam]

Who knows how much time Froome lost due to being ill. Might have been 2 minutes.

 

[Afrank]

Re:

Some cobbles or just something very technical with hills (like the TA stage that Nibs won on a few year ago), 50-80 km's of TT's (included one that is either uphill or very hilly), a few downhill finishes, and of course some difficult multi-mountain stages (long ones, at least 250 km) where long-range attacks are possible.

This Tour actually wasn't too bad. For all 4 to have an equal chance, even more important then the route is there fitness. They all have to peak for the Tour and not have done the Giro beforehand.

i want a downhill TT

This as well.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I like to see a 50km flat ITT and a tough MTT incorporated.

The rest seems like details.

 

[whittashau]

And him being getting ill is almost a given isn't it? With being THAT skinny. It's like the risk you take to climb a mountain faster by being so light. I'm sure some of the other riders could attempt to get that skinny too, but most feel it leaves themselves too susceptible to getting sick

 

[Netserk]

I think the best mountain stage for Quintana would probably be Bourg-Saint-Maurice -> Iseran -> Galibier -> Granon. 195km long that even if it only has three climbs (four with telelgraphe) would have about 5600m of vertical gain. All three climbs of high altitude as well.