TDF 2016 design to give all the 'big 4' an equal chance?

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

I think they should re-run the 1979 tour: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Tour_de_France#Stages

If quintana can win this i'll start supporting him

TDF: Bernard, we'd love it if you could win a second Tour in '79, do you have any preferences for the route?
The Badger: Moar time trials.
TDF: Oh, go on then.

And despite that he won it by 3 minutes!*

*everyone else was more than 26 minutes back.

 

[whittashau]

Nibali's former great strength of descending won't be the factor it once was. The same thing that happened with Sammy Sanchez happened to him. He's not willing to take the risks he once did. Probably because he's a family man now. He's never going to be a bad descender of course, and you'll never see him lose time to his main adversaries, but the time where you'll see him taking big time on a descent is gone.

 

[Tonton]

For crying out loud, am I the only one here who knows that the start/finish cities/towns are for sale to the highest bidder? IT'S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY! What am I reading? "The organizers are trying to showcase France": my a$$! How about three days in the UK one year, three or four days in the Benelux another? Yum, Germany? IT'S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY! Check the route of the '74 edition and you'll see what a real Tour de France should look like. And it used to be 1000 km longer too.

If Froome really weakens on week 3, increase the mileage back to the '70s level, use back roads instead of the main, flatter "routes nationales" and pile up nasty climbs. You can make "Ronde on steroids" stages in places like the Jura, or Les Gorges Du Tarn. Sky will have to race differently or explode. Breakaways will succeed. Off-days will happen. And put enough ITT to be fair, an uphill ITT (Puy de Dome?) and a flat 50K.

But it's hard to do when they want the map to look good, i.e. look like a Tour de France. And make MONEY.

 

[malakassis]

Re: Re:

I think the best mountain stage for Quintana would probably be Bourg-Saint-Maurice -> Iseran -> Galibier -> Granon. 195km long that even if it only has three climbs (four with telelgraphe) would have about 5600m of vertical gain. All three climbs of high altitude as well.

bring it **** ON!

+1!!
also ASO could ski-label it "serre chevalier granon" or so. in 1993 they did a similar one with 180k including izoard,vars,bonette,isola2000.
lets bring dem high HC in for nairo. and maybe a panflat 50TT right before paris.

i like these oldschool profiles - remind me of 90s gazzetta

 

[valentius borealis]

Re: Re:

I think the best mountain stage for Quintana would probably be Bourg-Saint-Maurice -> Iseran -> Galibier -> Granon. 195km long that even if it only has three climbs (four with telelgraphe) would have about 5600m of vertical gain. All three climbs of high altitude as well.

bring it **** ON!

+1!!
also ASO could ski-label it "serre chevalier granon" or so. in 1993 they did a similar one with 180k including izoard,vars,bonette,isola2000.
lets bring dem high HC in for nairo. and maybe a panflat 50TT right before paris.

i like these oldschool profiles - remind me of 90s gazzetta

There is, of course, the other way to get from Briancon to Isola 2000.

 

[wwabbit]

Re: Re:

I think its more likely that Froome simply doesnt have the long term stamina to be at his strongest over a long tour and on tough multi mountain stages c.f. Quintana who basically gets better the tougher it gets. Its no coincidence that Froome put in his best performance in the first MTF stage which was an easy stage with a hard single climb. That suits him best

In 2011 Vuelta and 2012 Tour, Froome maintained his performance all the way to the end.
In 2014 Vuelta, Froome got better towards the end.

I don't think we can conclude that Froome always deteriorates towards the end.

 

[kiilike]

i would love to see:
- prolog 1.2km uphill
- crosswinds in third week
- hard but short mountain stages about 100km

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

Doing an ITT in a city means essentially shutting it down for a whole day. Locals often don't like that.

On top of that, race organisers also have the evidence of smaller TV audience figures.

 

[hrotha]

Re:

- crosswinds in third week

Those are comparatively rare because you need strong teams of rouleurs for that. Typically they're pretty burned out after the mountains and often they've already met their goals, so they don't bother setting up the echelons. More importantly, there's less of a fight for positions at the front of the peloton, so usually the GC guys have no problem staying near the front. There were crosswinds late in the 2001 Vuelta which cost Mercado the podium, but I'm not sure I can remember many other examples.

On top of that, race organisers also have the evidence of smaller TV audience figures.

Compared to mountain stages, yes, but I don't think that's necessarily true compared to flat stages.

 

[oncehadhair]

For crying out loud, am I the only one here who knows that the start/finish cities/towns are for sale to the highest bidder? IT'S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY! What am I reading?

That explains why there are several days in the alps and the pyrenees. Every year. There mustn't be much money in the rest of France. Apart from Paris where they always seem to have the last stage. Strange. Maybe you only think you know.

 

[fungusbear]

Would love to see big MTF dotted across the three weeks rather than buck loaded into third week (and some in 2nd week). Would mean that riders would have to be strong throughout the three weeks, and not peak just for the third week. Also at least 40km of ITT please.

 

[DBotero]

An ITT of at least 60km,a MTT of decent length and no more stacked mountain stages in the 3rd week.

 

[malakassis]

-2 proper queen stages in alps and pyrenees
-minimizing transfers (max one flight transfer and NOT on rest day for sake )

 

[lemon cheese cake]

Re:

i would love to see:
- prolog 1.2km uphill
- crosswinds in third week
- hard but short mountain stages about 100km

+1

 

[Hugo Koblet]

In a "normal" GT, I'd rate their chances something like this (assuming no one else has a chance):

Froome - 34%
Contador 27%
Quintana 25%
Nibali 14%

If we were to design a GT that made all four have 25% each, we would need:

- No ITT or TTT
- Longer stages with multiple climbs
- Cobblestones
- More Ardennes type stages
- A more "3rd week biased" GT
- More downhill finishes

Anything else? I find it hard to design a GT that would make all four have 25% each though, as it's gonna be tough to get Nibali to 25%.

 

[Steven Roots]

An ITT of at least 60km,a MTT of decent length and no more stacked mountain stages in the 3rd week.

According to UCI regulations, the ITT can not be longer than 60km.
Cannot agree more about the 3rd week, though. The tactical conservatism is painful enough as it is, giving them a valid reason to keep waiting by having huge stages on day 19 or/and 20 is not really the best way to have some sparks. It may help to have some suspense, good for the audience, but i think it has a negative impact overall on the race.

 

[Netserk]

An ITT of at least 60km,a MTT of decent length and no more stacked mountain stages in the 3rd week.

According to UCI regulations, the ITT can not be longer than 60km.
Cannot agree more about the 3rd week, though. The tactical conservatism is painful enough as it is, giving them a valid reason to keep waiting by having huge stages on day 19 or/and 20 is not really the best way to have some sparks. It may help to have some suspense, good for the audience, but i think it have a negative impact overall on the race.

Yes it can. There can be given a dispensation for one ITT longer than 60km in the race.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Would love to see big MTF dotted across the three weeks rather than buck loaded into third week (and some in 2nd week). Would mean that riders would have to be strong throughout the three weeks, and not peak just for the third week. Also at least 40km of ITT please.

That would be great yes, but unfortunately that would favor Froome even more. This thread is about creating a GT that favors everyone but Froome (mostly Nibali).

 

[Steven Roots]

An ITT of at least 60km,a MTT of decent length and no more stacked mountain stages in the 3rd week.

According to UCI regulations, the ITT can not be longer than 60km.
Cannot agree more about the 3rd week, though. The tactical conservatism is painful enough as it is, giving them a valid reason to keep waiting by having huge stages on day 19 or/and 20 is not really the best way to have some sparks. It may help to have some suspense, good for the audience, but i think it have a negative impact overall on the race.

Yes it can. There can be given a dispensation for one ITT longer than 60km in the race.

So, does that mean that you believe that Prudhomme and ASO will do something that might be adventurous ?

 

[Gigs_98]

I think its almost impossible to make a route that fits everyone as good as the other ones. I just hope that everyone of the big 4 will be at his best next year because that simply the best way to make a good tdf.

 

[SafeBet]

It should feature a DTT so we can assess if Froome is also the best descender other than the best climber and best time trialler.

 

[Tonton]

For crying out loud, am I the only one here who knows that the start/finish cities/towns are for sale to the highest bidder? IT'S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY! What am I reading?

That explains why there are several days in the alps and the pyrenees. Every year. There mustn't be much money in the rest of France. Apart from Paris where they always seem to have the last stage. Strange. Maybe you only think you know.

It goes without saying that ASO cannot sell the entire route to the highest bidder. But once you sell the first days, which is the case, the options for course design are greatly reduced. As you mention, the more or less three stages in the Pyrenees and three stages in the Alps are a must do. So now, that's something like 10 stages (4+3+3). Plus the finish in Paris: 11. Half of the Tour! Then you need to limit transfers, which reduces the options even further. Some regions see the TdF once a decade, and the peloton is often just passing by, using a flat route nationale. So much for "showcasing France" as you put it...Ask the French people if they "think I know". Read the French regional press the day after the route is made public. You'll see what I mean.

 

[Tonton]

Addendum: plus two ITT and one TTT. 11+3=14 stages. Not much left...

Back to the topic: to give the big 4 an equal chance means giving the lesser ones an advantage over the rider perceived as the strongest. Isn't it? To me, it can only be accomplished by making it impossible for one team to control the race.

 

[ray j willings]

Night time tt up Alp d' huez ....2 riders at a time. Start in reverse order....it would look spectacular.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Night time tt up Alp d' huez ....2 riders at a time. Start in reverse order....it would look spectacular.

I like the idea...