TDF Stage 14: Saint-Gaudens - Plateau de Beille 168km

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Jun 14, 2010
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benpounder said:
Basso,and Evans (and Leipheimer) dont need to "get away", they all have the capacity to ride someone off their wheel. Contador and Schlecks (as was Marco Pantani) are expolsive. Rather than a relentless wearing down of opponents, the later destroy by forcing another to match accelerations. Tomorrow (today for those across large ponds) will show, hopefully*, which style is more successful. But note, the grinders tend to be better ITTists.

But someone with the capacity to attack also has the capacity to ride someone off their wheel no?

Take Basso riding someone of his wheel. He does so by riding a pace of say 16km/h (for argument purposes)

Now Contador, he wins a stage by putting in an attack. But the attack gets him say 10 seconds, 20 seconds, and after the attack, hes back to riding the mountain at his own pace.

But in order to get to the top he has to then too ride a pace of 16km/h. If he rides 14km/h then he will get caught. In fact Contador and Schleck probably ride more like 17 or 18km/h. If they didnt they wouldnt stretch their lead after the initial attack.

So if they are capable of doing 17km/h then surely they are also capable to do Basssos 16km/h and hence ride people off their wheel.
 
May 19, 2011
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sure but what if in fact Contador and Schleck can only ride 13km/h for argument sake after attack then they will get caught, it really depends how you perform on the climb, let's see tomorrow
The Hitch said:
But someone with the capacity to attack also has the capacity to ride someone off their wheel no?

Take Basso riding someone of his wheel. He does so by riding a pace of say 16km/h (for argument purposes)

Now Contador, he wins a stage by putting in an attack. But the attack gets him say 10 seconds, 20 seconds, and after the attack, hes back to riding the mountain at his own pace.

But in order to get to the top he has to then too ride a pace of 16km/h. If he rides 14km/h then he will get caught. In fact Contador and Schleck probably ride more like 17 or 18km/h. If they didnt they wouldnt stretch their lead after the initial attack.

So if they are capable of doing 17km/h then surely they are also capable to do Basssos 16km/h and hence ride people off their wheel.
 
Apr 1, 2009
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Basso and Evans are 34 now. After 32 Grand Tour riders begin rapidly lose their strength. I think Basso is still good, but not good to win Le Tour, Evans will bonk.
Franck is now the best climber. Andy has not his best legs in this tour. Conta is dead.

So favourites are Franck, Samuel and may be Cunego.
 
May 31, 2011
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i can't believe there are people moaning about this stage, it was very entertaining and well contested.

when is the last time anyone saw a stage where one mountain split the favourites? even on the big ventoux stage a few years ago it was a disapointment because all the riders were too strong. you need multiple climbs to soften everyone up before you are likely to get gaps. the leopard domestiques aren't going to drop AC or evans or basso, andy and frank will have to do that themselves.

some people need to get a grip. OMG i want MTF111111 i'd rather see racing and tactics than guys flogging themselves over mountains with very little narrative or tension which was most of this years giro.
 
Jul 22, 2009
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Tuarts said:
Yeah of course, he was the first one to abandon wasn't he? I suppose it all leads into the question of whether or not fatigue plays a major part in crashes and risk of injuries



Prehaps but seeing what a 3 week GT does to their bodies is still an unknown quantity and you can't expect them to perform as a hardened 30 year old would. It'as probably one advantage Danielson has over 4-5 other top 10 aspirants, he can GT. He just has other problems to deal with...

***

Found a insightful article, taking a scientific approach to stage 12. Putting aside the obvious clinic parts I thought the stage analysis was good and backed up some of my thoughts, the pace should be faster and if Contador did lose time because of form loss, he's going to lose a whole heap more today.

http://feedly.com/k/ptKmZpg

Schlecks being the only ones to attack is probably true as well. That may introduce another new dynamic of what will Andy do if Frank is again the better climber and riders himself 20-30secs clear and into the yellow? Will he ride all out for him on stage 18 + 19 so Frank can gain as much time as possible before the Time Trial or will he go for his own glory. Jens himself reckons they rider either/or so Andy riding for his brother would be a sight to see.

Basso and Evans, likely to be the only 2 with them may have to try and team up to combat them, in an "Aldo Sassi" alliance, but what exactly can they do? They're both tempo riders so attacking won't suit them. Only thing I can imagine is combining what domestiques/gregarios they have before the ultimate climb or pacesetting together on the Plateau.

Sanchez will be a spanner in the works, he won't be allowed the same leash as Ardiden, gc radar + parcours.

Likely top 6 in all those names mentioned.

Could you post the link again, not working here..

Thanks!
 
Jun 1, 2011
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Awesome preview!!!
I have been following this forum for a few months now and I just love Hitch's previews. Keep up the good work....

The Hitch said:
Due to its length its gradient, its position as the final climb of a 3 day mountain effort, the Plateau de Beile is all set to have the biggest impact on the 2011 Yellow jersey battle of all the mountains in the race.

Due to the 30km of flat preceeding it, the main contenders, exhausted as they may be, are likely to come into the climbs opening 6.9% kilometre together.

Some might argue that it is better to have 2 major climbs in a row, the format the other 3 major mountain stages of this years Tour have adopted, rather than 30km of flat leading up to the Mountain top finish.

But it is important to remember that while there may be no Tourmalet, Iozard or Galibier to launch attacks off, or to tire the riders out immediately before the finale, most often the contenders go into the final climb together anyway. This was after all the case on Saturday at Luz Ardiden, which had been immediately precceeded by 2 major climbs.
The 6 catergorised climbs that precceed the Beille, will have done more than enough to tire the riders out.

And at the end of the day when the riders, tired, legs aching, approach the final 20k of a mountain stage, and the only thing standing between them and the stage finish, between them and glory, is a Hors Caterfory Mountain.

Whats the difference?

PreviewFile.jpg.ashx


The Plateau de Beile is the hardest climb of this years Tour. It is the steepest of all the HC mountains, and one of the longest. At 8% for 15.7km it is longer than Alpe d Huez by 1.7km, while maintaining a similar steepness.

The fact that the second kilometre with an average of 10% already brings the riders into double figure grades, shows just how much of a challenge the climb will pose.

But Beille’s importance goes beyond that. One major critiscism of the big mountains in the Tour de France is that they are used to often. The Tourmalet has been used 4 times in 3 years. Alpe has more times than not in the last half century. Galibier, Aubisque, fans are used to these names. But the Plateau de Beille. This beast has only been used 4 times as a summit finish in the history of the Tour.

And here is where the legend comes in. Only 3 people have won on the Plateau de Beile. Marco “Il Pirata” Pantani. Lance “The Boss” Armstrong. Alberto “ El Pistolero” Contador. The 3 Greatest climbers of all time.

You have to be special to win here.

Plateau-de-Beille-Les-Cabannes-profile.jpg



Km 3-6 all stick at around the climbs average of between 8 and 9% before falling to 7.6 % for 2km.


The gradient then increases greatly to 8.8% 9.6% and 8.6% for the next 3 kilometers respectively. Coming after 7km of climbin this section provides the toughest challenge on the mountain, is the best place for attacks to stick, and is likely to prove the graveyard for some contenders Tour de France hopes.

The last time the Tour came here, it was 2007 and featured the Contador vs Rasmussen battle at its peak. For those who like their facts, it was stage 14 of that yearsTour, which featured the Plateau de Beille and finally Contador raising his arms into the air.

In stage 14 of this years Tour, Can Contador repeat his heroics?


Kilometer 12 is on paper the easiest of the Beille at 6.4% but with any momentum long gone slipstraeam is unlikely to play much of a role. Its still a long way to the top and the climb gets steeper still.

Cycling nuts will line the steep ramps. For Samuel Sanchez and his Pro Continental support team, this is the last chance in front of their own fans. Can they make the most of it?

ae2650c0_Plateau-de-Beille.jpg


Anyone looking for time will have made their move by now and this makes Kilometers 13 and 14 at 7.7% and 7.4% crucial. On this section, approaching the finish, riders will do their best to either create or limit time gaps approaching the final straight. The climb does not ease of at all though. The final 1.5km, where should a small group make it to the top together, the stage will be contested, comes in at 7%.

The battle for the stage and the GC will be equally intriguing.

Whoever is victorious, should not get too far ahead of themselves however. The Alpes are still to come, the main event awaits. But they can permit themselves a smile, and hold one little fact close to their hearts. A record unique in cycling.

On the 4 occasions the Plateau de Beile has been used in the Tour, the winner has gone on to wear Yellow up on the top step in Paris.

As goes the Plateau so goes the Tour.

How will they go this year?

On Saturday, the world finds out.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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The Hitch said:
In the same way people say Bolt is the fastest man of all time because he has the fastest time, Pantani Armstrong and Contador on time are the greatest climbers of all.

Pantani and Armstrong have the 2 best times up Alpe.

Contador has never gone fully up that but on this climb he beat Armstrongs record significantly and came very close to Pantanis even though when Pantani won the stage finished further down the mountain.


Contador 44:08
Armstrong 45:30
Armstrong 45:43


Pantani 43:30*

Of course this is just one way of looking at it, and I am being unfair to the legends that came before as they never had a chance of posting these kind of times in their eras, but is it such a stretch to suggest that these are the 3 greatest climbers?

You can remove Armstrong's name; drugs don't count
 
Jun 22, 2010
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It will be an epic battle, IMO! I am counting on the Schlecks to do some major damage after the prelude on Luz Ardiden. Contador might be dropped again. Darkhorse for the stage will be Ullrich.
 
May 27, 2010
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BullsFan22 said:
It will be an epic battle, IMO! I am counting on the Schlecks to do some major damage after the prelude on Luz Ardiden. Contador might be dropped again. Darkhorse for the stage will be Ullrich.

WHAT!?:eek:

anyway I hope to see evans, basso and schlecks battle it out. im slighty worried about how evans will handle the 1 2 attack from the schlecks as he cant just let frank gain time eventhough his TT is terrible. I wanna watch at least 3 hours of this stage.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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Publicus said:
Just looking at the profile of the stage the last time the Tour finished here (2007), it was a MUCH easier stage compared to what is on tap for tomorrow:

_TDF_2007_PROFIL14.gif


PROFIL.gif


I have to think they aren't going to race too hard until they descend off of Port de Lers.

Don't underestimate the difficult of the Port de Pailheres. Lesser climbs doesn't mean less difficulty. There are also some long descents and gaps bettern many of the climbs. You also have to consider that there are two HC climbs one after the other. Will also depend on how they race it and if leopard Trek want to save their 'petrol tickets' for later in the stage. This stage is also shorter.
 
May 23, 2011
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dlwssonic said:

Ullrich will spring out of the crowd wearing a Leopard-Trek jersey, deliver the ol' grosseneckundbreakinchoppin to Andy Schleck, steal his bike, and solo to the finish. Leopard will not complain because they will figure that Ulle has more experience (at coming in second) than Schleck.
 
Jun 17, 2009
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Fabulous intro Hitch, well done.

You should offer it as a PDF so we can keep it as a souvenir. Add couple hi res photos after the finish.

Keep up the good work.

PS: I like the bit about the three best climbers adding to the mystique of the stage.



Hugh
 
Mar 17, 2009
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auscyclefan94 said:
Don't underestimate the difficult of the Port de Pailheres. Lesser climbs doesn't mean less difficulty. There are also some long descents and gaps bettern many of the climbs. You also have to consider that there are two HC climbs one after the other. Will also depend on how they race it and if leopard Trek want to save their 'petrol tickets' for later in the stage. This stage is also shorter.

Not underestimating anything. There will be more vertical meters of climbing tomorrow (or today for you) than there were on the stage in 2007 over a shorter distance. Which is why I don't think they will race hard until later in the stage. I of course could be VERY wrong since I also didn't see Leopard laying down the law on the Tourmalet on Thursday either.

In any event, we'll have our answer soon enough.
 
Apr 18, 2010
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remember the introduction to the giro's crostis stage?? well, thanks a LOT, hitch. at least i know who to blame when, as the result of each team having your preview read to them at the morning meeting, a unified peleton protests the inhumane difficulty - the downright cruelty - of one BIG hill too far...the climb of plateau de beille is canceled. :p


i know i would like to see contador win this stage, though i will be thrilled if he loses half a minute or less. i have no doubt alberto would rather not have lost time in thursday's stage. in my *opinion*, he did a lot more than just survive stage 12. he covered every attack except for frank schleck's last attack. when evan's went and no one else made a move, he covered that move. he hung with cade let al with andy on his wheel until he could not hang anymore....and did not lose massive time.


this keeps me hopeful for contador in yellow in paris 'cause if THAT is a struggling, out of form contador....the rest of the boys better get their act together soon...like today.


contador has repeatedly said or inferred that while the pyranees are important...it is the alps that will make or break him. unlike too many present day elite cyclists, contador does not merely "ride." he races to win. he is vino-esque in that there are times he attacks not only because he can, but because he just can't help himself.

other than delusional "purist" cycling fans...who doesn't love vino, huh huh huh??? :D



between racing the giro and his crashes in the tour, how *can't* he be physically depleted at this stage of the race? unlike a chain dropping gc rival, contador did not whine or carry on about about the additional time loss in stage 1 when he was held up by the group in the second crash inside the 3km mark. he DID say that he could have been closer to the front when he crashed at the 10k mark. his other crashes....wrong place at the wrong time, the misfortunes of racing. for the things just mentioned alone, this is where his psychological strength, his quiet self confidence, his *heart* can keep him in contention at a time most other riders would be toast.


in my opinion, he has the same or greater psychological strength as armstrong...without being the monomaniacal, dictaorial, 'if ya ain't with me, yer agin' me" *** armstrong was and is.


i understand all of that comes off as rather fanboyish - it is not. i do not and will never claim i am *the* authority on cycling. i will say that while i've been following pro cycling for 4 decades, how or what any cyclist will do on a particualr stage or on a particular day still baffles me. ergo, any and all of the views expressed are based on what i have read and watched in that time.



one thing i am speculating about contador and his crashes and bike changes: he is riding on a new frame (tarmac sl-4) which specialzed claims is the most rigid frame EVER. so i think "hmmmmm....more rigid = less give, less give = a nano second less time to correct a wheel lockup or weight shift overcompensation, miniscule as that weight shift may be, and that vino, van garderen, kreuziger rode or are riding the same frame, and how are things working out for THEM, and....and....and.....ahhhhhhhh, nevermind. i'm just another chamois sniffing fanboy on a interwebz forum. what do i know??" :)


thank you again for the stage preview - how's things coming along on the queen stage intro???
 
Mar 14, 2010
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Great intro. I guess I am up at real early on the West Coast for this one.

I am hoping for a stage full of fireworks! Also ready to be disappointed. Seems that the more hype a stage gets, the riders don't ride the way we think they will or the way we think they should.

I want racing! I don't want marking until the last 5 k. I don't want to wake up that early for a replay of Thursday's stage where the GC favorites let others go while they mark each other.

If AC can't go FTW by working with Samu, then hoping for Basso and Cadel do what they do and not lose time.

Serves everyone right if Tommy V extends or maintains his time gap on everyone here.
 
Jul 9, 2011
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much ado about nothing?

Can the GC contenders smell the blood of Alberto.Will they attack?
Two diesels Basso and Evans are unlikely. I expect more of a rematch of Monte Zoncolan from the last year between those two, just riding their tempo.
Andy- it tells me a lot when he was crossing the line of Luz Ardinen and almost rode himself into a barrier- that spent!
Will Leopard DS have courage to put his money on Frank? I doubt unless Andy cracks big time.
Albert- seems to be on a survival mode hoping for a recovery miracle one day.
Little Prince, impressive, but looks only like a good bet for top 10.
Samuel still tired from Thursday's effort- but one should admire his panache!
All makes me think:
Allez Tommy allez!!! (joking but next to Gilbert and Hushovd a true star of this Tour)
 
Apr 18, 2010
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psycholist said:
Has anyone here ever ridden up a climb in a race situation on max!!

no. but following an eight hour day of lifeguarding on cloudless, humid, hot as hell day in the ancient time that was my youth, i DID unrelentingly blaze up and down the last 15km of the daily 42k commute home. that last leg included one long, moderately steep hill and four short, very steep hills. my legs were beyond screaming, but i did not pause to give them a rest. though i have no idea how fast i was riding (the strong tail wind sure helped!), i did not care, i was not thinking "whoah! new sustained speed record!" because, because, well....when the object of the ride changes from "have a good ride home" to "if i don't get home or at least to some relatively safe place before that violent thunderstorm gets to my rear wheel, i'll be in seriously deep doo-doo."

about five minutes after i got home, safely collapsed in a chair, the skies opened up. it was as though some cosmic spigot was turned on: vision limiting sheets of rain. thunder roared, lightning cracked, trees and tree limbs came down.
it took a while to realize how spent i was and how much my now jello-like legs hurt. heh - i guess that's what adreneline and "i'm too young to die!" will do, huh?

that said: what i experienced post-ride home that day ain't nothin' compared to what a bunch of guys are gong to feel like at the end of tomorrow's stage.
 
May 20, 2010
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airedefuego said:
Albert- seems to be on a survival mode hoping for a recovery miracle one day.

A recovery without a positive for a banned substance would be a miracle.

Go Schleck brothers, Evans .... Anybody but AC.
 
Jun 1, 2011
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:p:p
Good one!!!!

Damiano Machiavelli said:
Ullrich will spring out of the crowd wearing a Leopard-Trek jersey, deliver the ol' grosseneckundbreakinchoppin to Andy Schleck, steal his bike, and solo to the finish. Leopard will not complain because they will figure that Ulle has more experience (at coming in second) than Schleck.