TDU race thread

[theyoungest]

Obviously Kelderman.

Kelderman is so last year. Haas is the word and the word is Haas.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

He won a bit more then that in the Australian domestic scene. Fair enough if Bobridge won the Sun Tour and people were gloating about him but he didn't. Give Haas some credit for riding on a Continental team and then beating plenty of WT riders in the process, the same team that won the Japan Cup. I don't think anybody thinks he will win the TDU or a stage or to be Australia's next cycling superstar.

I give haas not much credit at all. he beat after a full season riding in australia against weak competition in weak short races(australia have like 40 km stages) a bunch of tired wt riders.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Well, he did beat Bobridge, the guy you've just mentioned as a big favourite for the TDU. On a pretty similar climb to Willunga Hill. Add to that he's Australian, and thus in great form for this race.

I think the hype comes more from his Japan Cup win, against Cunego and some Liquigas dudes.


He was close, but Hermans was better. Matthews might be a good bet, on bonus seconds (if his team doesn't use him as a leadout for Renshaw, that is... last year they went for Graeme Brown in the first stages).

I think this year with hillunga are 2 hard finishes right? 2 finishes that renshaw or brown for sure can't do so 1 stage for matthews on bonusseconds and willunga self. if rabo aren't total idiots and matthews is in shape they should go only for him

 

[theyoungest]

I give haas not much credit at all. he beat after a full season riding in australia against weak competition in weak short races(australia have like 40 km stages) a bunch of tired wt riders.

Tired WT riders like Bobridge? How many race days did he have?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Tired WT riders like Bobridge? How many race days did he have?

close or around 50 racing days and that's excluding all the track he did last year

 

[craig1985]

I give haas not much credit at all. he beat after a full season riding in australia against weak competition in weak short races(australia have like 40 km stages) a bunch of tired wt riders.

They are crits and generally they are held for logistical reasons. I don't see how it's different for him peaking in the biggest race he will do in Australia in 2011 then what the Argentine and Chilean riders do for San Luis against guys just starting off their racing season.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

except that in san luis the sotuh americans beat fresh european riders the stature of basso, nibali, serpa etc, something else than bobridge after a full season

 

[theyoungest]

except that in san luis the sotuh americans beat fresh european riders the stature of basso, nibali, serpa etc, something else than bobridge after a full season

Lol. Where you say "fresh", another person might say "out of shape".

 

[craig1985]

So they beat them in when they are not in their best condition either. I personally would if they went up Mt Baw Baw again, now that is a selective MTF.

 

[Parrulo]

paulinho is extremely good in extreme heat. is the only reason he won silver that day. also in races now in extreme heatr he is always very strong. I think tour de france 2 years ago or something

as good as he is with extreme heat that can't be the only reason why he was the only guy capable of following bettini on his first attack on the main hill of the course and then able to follow him in the iirc 2 attempts bettini made to drop him on the last 2 laps.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

he had a superday of course but still is was really the heat. if you saw the peloton sprint it was ridiculous. never seen such a race

 

[greenedge]

Haas had planned his season around the Sun Herald Tour though ( won it impressively/ as you pointed out other riders from Argentina do the same in preparing for races where teams come and race ). I'm basing my predictions on him able to go well at the TDU on that performance and the fact that most Aussies are well prepared for the early start of the season.

 

[JRanton]

What's the scale of bonus seconds for stage finishes here? 10, 6, 4?

EBH must be a threat if he's in good form although I read that Sky would probably be using Sutton in the sprints and Rogers for GC.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

Greipel ftw. Wins the sprints and doesn't lose enough on stage 5 to cancel out the time bonuses.

 

[roundabout]

I doubt it, Willunga is what 3km or so at over 7%? Can Greipel finish within 20 seconds of the winner there?

 

[Captain_Cavman]

I doubt it, Willunga is what 3km or so at over 7%? Can Greipel finish within 20 seconds of the winner there?

Where did you get 20 seconds from? I was looking at 40ish.

 

[theyoungest]

Where did you get 20 seconds from? I was looking at 40ish.

He won a grand total of zero stages last year... to go from there to winning them all (except Willunga) might be a bit of a leap.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

He won a grand total of zero stages last year... to go from there to winning them all (except Willunga) might be a bit of a leap.

New team with the most inept lead out I've ever seen. (or not really seen as my eyes hadn't got attuned to the kit and I had no idea they were even in the race until I saw the results). I digress. What happened the year before?

 

[Ferminal]

Where did you get 20 seconds from? I was looking at 40ish.

That would require winning five stages, which is more WT stages than he won for the entire year in 2011.

Goss, Haussler, Petacchi, Bennati, Feillu, Rabobank, Sky... it's hardly a field he can walk over. The Stirling stage will also be out of his hands, if others decide to race hard - only a Greipel in top shape would be able to challenge for it.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

That would require winning five stages, which is more WT stages than he won for the entire year in 2011.

Goss, Haussler, Petacchi, Bennati, Feillu, Rabobank, Sky... it's hardly a field he can walk over. The Stirling stage will also be out of his hands, if others decide to race hard - only a Greipel in top shape would be able to challenge for it.

1. it's January, they won't be racing that hard.
2. Greipel's still the quickest of the sprinters there
3. He's dominated an edition of this race recently.
4. he showed at MSR he is quite capable of powering up short hills.
5. No-one's going to be in great shape so the guy who peaks and troughs least through the season has an advantage. And that guy is Greipel (although I have no idea why I think that).
6. Lotto have brought a team this year that could deliver Greipel to the head of affairs unlike last year.
7. It's a sh**ty small race; Greipel's good at those.
8. It's still only January, who knows what's going to happen, it's just a punt. Greipel may lead out for Henderson.

 

[theyoungest]

New team with the most inept lead out I've ever seen. (or not really seen as my eyes hadn't got attuned to the kit and I had no idea they were even in the race until I saw the results). I digress. What happened the year before?

The year(s) before Greipel peaked too early. He wants to be good in the Tour, not in the Tour Down Under.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

The year(s) before Greipel peaked too early. He wants to be good in the Tour, not in the Tour Down Under.

He'll take what he can get. He can get this. Or maybe not, neither of us know what his attitude is to this race. Or indeed anyone else's attitude apart from the local riders. If he really goes for it, what's to stop him?

 

[theyoungest]

He'll take what he can get. He can get this. Or maybe not, neither of us know what his attitude is to this race. Or indeed anyone else's attitude apart from the local riders. If he really goes for it, what's to stop him?

I don't know, Matthew Goss?

 

[Captain_Cavman]

I don't know, Matthew Goss?

Well yeah, Matthew Goss obviously. But apart from him?

 

[Kvinto]

Since we have an additional Stirling lap and Willunga hill being a mtf it should be interesting how the GC turns out. If Hagen won't ride it hard, i'd say Lulu or Gerrans. Of course Willunga mtf not quite suits Lulu, but it's definitely his time of year, given that he's preparing to Paris - Nice (or isn't he?) and with his usual shedule (which he comes back to in 2012) he is always strong in Down Under. I rate him higher than Matthews anyway. Gerrans is an Aussie who rides in the Australian team so i hope this race does matter for him, especially now when it suits him (i just hope he won't pull an 'Arddennes type Gerrans' widely known by his effective (or half-effective) invisibility).

Though, on the other hand, i hope that 'EBH rides it easy' is a bluff, but being in good form (given that in first races of the season, a form is more important than a 'suitness' of the race) Rogers is a good bet for top-5.

I reckon there are too many names in the startlist (including Valverde) that could do well on this parcours, but their form is pretty unknown.

I also look forward to the teams which are expected to struggle in the case of scoring PT points during the year, first and foremost FDJ - it's a shame that Pinot is not in their line-up

I don't care too much about wintertime sprints, but i hope Robbie will get a farewell stage win in his home race.