Team Ineos Discussion thread

[Netserk]

So Castroviejo instead of Dennis, the rest as expected:

Thomas
Carapaz
Porte
Hart
Castroviejo
Kwiatkowski
Van Baarle
Rowe

 

[Pinot's goat]

Dennis, Amador, De Plus, Dunbar, Sosa, Swift

3 of these won't do a grand tour this year.

 

[Leinster]

3 of these won't do a grand tour this year.

That seems crazy. No wonder Dennis is off.

Which 3 from the Giro/Tour teams are definitely doing the Vuelta to keep them out?

 

[Ilmaestro99]

I guess Amador is happy getting paid a lot to be home with his family. Which is understandable.

Dennis must've pissed somebody off.

 

[carolina]

Wouldn't Dennis be out to prepare for the Olympics? Ineos might have promised him full support for the games when he signed with them. Covid just messed things up last year.

Ineos usually manages to win, even when things don't seem to go their way, I expect them to win with someone.

 

[Pinot's goat]

That seems crazy. No wonder Dennis is off.

Which 3 from the Giro/Tour teams are definitely doing the Vuelta to keep them out?

Bernal, Carapaz, Sivakov.

 

[Leinster]

Bernal, Carapaz, Sivakov.

Of course.

Seems wild that after dominating the Tour de Suisse, 4 of their 7 from that race may not make a GT roster in 2021.

 

[Jan the Man]

My guess for Vuelta would be like

Bernal
Carapaz
Sivakov
Yates
Pidcock
Sosa
Dunbar
Amador

i guess it depends on how de plus recovers from his overtraining and how Carapaz comes out of the tour etx

 

[Pinot's goat]

My guess for Vuelta would be like

Bernal
Carapaz
Sivakov
Yates
Pidcock
Sosa
Dunbar
Amador

i guess it depends on how de plus recovers from his overtraining and how Carapaz comes out of the tour etx

I think that team is a little too climby, I think they have given up on Sosa so they will probably get a bigger guy in. Not sure what they will do with Rodriguez.

 

[Savant12]

Castro did a lot of work during the Giro, particularly in the last week. I hope he is properly recovered.

 

[KZD]

I was expecting Amador instead of Castroviejo but its no big shock. They clearly have the best team on paper. Let's see if their leaders are up to the challenge.

 

[JosefK]

I was expecting Amador instead of Castroviejo but its no big shock. They clearly have the best team on paper. Let's see if their leaders are up to the challenge.

Ineos could possibly have 3 riders in the top 5 on GC. That assumes no crashes or illness, etc.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Looks like Thomas will rely on TTs and mountain Sprints

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Looks like Thomas will rely on TTs and mountain Sprints

Bit like Roglic

 

[CTQ]

I think that team is a little too climby, I think they have given up on Sosa so they will probably get a bigger guy in. Not sure what they will do with Rodriguez.

According the Gazzetta, just before the Giro, rumours of Sosa leaving Ineos,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1390599213499756546

View: https://twitter.com/cirogazzetta/status/1390599213499756546?s=20

 

[Froome]

What happened with dennis? He was listed to the tour.

 

[Escarabajo]

What happened with dennis? He was listed to the tour.

He was long listed. Only short listed in this forum TBF. Few days ago I saw that they had added Castroviejo. That was strange. I feel like they want to win the Tour in the mountains and not in the cross winds. Strange.

 

[Escarabajo]

According the Gazzetta, just before the Giro, rumours of Sosa leaving Ineos,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1390599213499756546

View: https://twitter.com/cirogazzetta/status/1390599213499756546?s=20

Sosa has proven time after time that he sucks in races longer than 5 days. Completely sucks. No depth. He depletes himself in races with cross winds or long flat or undulating stages. He is the definition of a one trick pony.

 

[Escarabajo]

Looks like Thomas will rely on TTs and mountain Sprints

That's how he won the Tour. However Roglic does exactly the same. Counting on Thomas beating Roglic at the game would be completely nonsense!

 

[Escarabajo]

Wouldn't Dennis be out to prepare for the Olympics? Ineos might have promised him full support for the games when he signed with them. Covid just messed things up last year.

Ineos usually manages to win, even when things don't seem to go their way, I expect them to win with someone.

There is no way, if I am Ineos, that I would not take Rohan to the Tour for that reason. No way. You are a professional and you get paid for that reason. If that is the true reason then it is stupid decision IMHO.
As for my opinion of the team I say the team looks great as long as Castro is fully recovered.

 

[will-10]

Dennis was doing TdF-Olympics from early on in the year, I'm surprised Castro is doubling up ahead of Rohan and suspect it's tied in with the Jumbo rumours (i.e. one causing the other, or vice versa)

 

[Parker]

My guess for Vuelta would be like

Bernal
Carapaz
Sivakov
Yates
Pidcock
Sosa
Dunbar
Amador

i guess it depends on how de plus recovers from his overtraining and how Carapaz comes out of the tour etx

I doubt Carapaz will be there (regardless of the Tour). Sosa is leaving, so no. I think Pidcock won't be, I may be wrong. But he's had a long year. I'd expect Swift or Doull, maybe Hayter

 

[Summoned]

So, I have been thinking about the Ineos strategy/tactics for taking on Pogacar and Roglic in the Tour. Given the strength they have combined with the possibility that they will need to send one of their GC contenders on early or relatively early attacks during stages, I was trying to game that out in the framework of an individual stage.

Assuming that is what they do, and I freely acknowledge that is an assumption - they could end up trying a different approach to winning the Tour - they would be hoping for Pogacar and/or Roglic to either be unable or unwilling to chase down the attack, or to have one of their other GC contenders come over the top of the Slovenians when the original attack is brought back. Which makes sense, as far as it goes.

But two thoughts occur: first, with two riders/teams chasing one rider/team, if the Slovenians are willing to work together to counter such an attack, it will blunt the effectiveness of the tactic.

Second, this does not even consider what the other teams in the race may want to do in such a scenario. While I think it overwhelmingly likely that the winner of the Tour will come from the Ineos team or Pogacar and Roglic, I don’t think all of the contenders are conceding the Tour. They may well have roles to play in chasing attacks down, if not in a realistic hope of winning the Tour, then of placing a rider on the podium, or even in the top 5 or 10. Their teams may not be much help, though I think Movistar at least may be able to do something if they function as a team, but the individual contenders themselves can assist to some degree.

These considerations do not necessarily make the early attack a hopeless cause, but it is not a tactic that I think it makes sense to base the team’s entire approach to the Tour around. I think that Ineos are going to have to have multiple approaches they are willing to utilize, and will have to probably make snap decisions about when to switch tactics. More than any other GT, I think this is where we find out if Ineos have more to work with than the generally more than sufficient strength of their team and riders.

 

[gregrowlerson]

So, I have been thinking about the Ineos strategy/tactics for taking on Pogacar and Roglic in the Tour. Given the strength they have combined with the possibility that they will need to send one of their GC contenders on early or relatively early attacks during stages, I was trying to game that out in the framework of an individual stage.

Assuming that is what they do, and I freely acknowledge that is an assumption - they could end up trying a different approach to winning the Tour - they would be hoping for Pogacar and/or Roglic to either be unable or unwilling to chase down the attack, or to have one of their other GC contenders come over the top of the Slovenians when the original attack is brought back. Which makes sense, as far as it goes.

But two thoughts occur: first, with two riders/teams chasing one rider/team, if the Slovenians are willing to work together to counter such an attack, it will blunt the effectiveness of the tactic.

Second, this does not even consider what the other teams in the race may want to do in such a scenario. While I think it overwhelmingly likely that the winner of the Tour will come from the Ineos team or Pogacar and Roglic, I don’t think all of the contenders are conceding the Tour. They may well have roles to play in chasing attacks down, if not in a realistic hope of winning the Tour, then of placing a rider on the podium, or even in the top 5 or 10. Their teams may not be much help, though I think Movistar at least may be able to do something if they function as a team, but the individual contenders themselves can assist to some degree.

These considerations do not necessarily make the early attack a hopeless cause, but it is not a tactic that I think it makes sense to base the team’s entire approach to the Tour around. I think that Ineos are going to have to have multiple approaches they are willing to utilize, and will have to probably make snap decisions about when to switch tactics. More than any other GT, I think this is where we find out if Ineos have more to work with than the generally more than sufficient strength of their team and riders.

I see Ineos racing fairly normally, despite not having the strongest gc rider on paper. They will look for an opportunity that arises in crosswinds, and if Porte is dropped, but so is Pogacar or Roglic, then that's a win for Ineos, and they will try to drive home that advantage. Ineos' best chance is that entering the Pyrenees, one of the Slovenians is out of contention, and Ineos still have 2 cards to play at that point, so they can double team that favourite. I doubt that Ineos would attack before the final climb though. "Long range" would be Carapaz attacking at the bottom of the final climb on stage 17 or 18 when a minute down on gc; that sort of scenario.

 

[Anybody_but..]

They will not create crosswinds themselves but either will try to eliminate 0,5-1 km mountain finishes by final 3-5 km repeated attacks or will lose the Tour.
9, 17 and 18 stages might be not sufficient but shouldn't wait till 3rd week and try attacks also at 8, 11 or 15.