Team Ineos (Formerly the Sky thread)

[function]

A) Pre-2009 is highly relevant, even if you would rather it weren't. He seems to have become much lighter without much drastic decrease in his power. In fact, he is better than he ever was TTing. Even then, he rode a road season - he had plenty of time to try and get some results.

Could you elaborate further for me? Are you saying that training and targeting track events specifically would have no effect on tour preparation?

 

[Bag_O_Wallet]

Kinda like Wiggins being a trackie? But I agree it was a bad example from me. I assumed his palmares on wikipedia would stata his participations in a TDF. Obviously, I was wrong.

It did. You just didn't read far enough.

 

[Cerberus]

And herre is another example of someone not doing much untill they got quite old. Antonio Gelabaert, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonio_Gelabert.

He won his first Vuelta andmwas 28 or 29 at the time.

I think the notion that no one came from nowhere to good results while being quite advanced in age will not stand up to close scrutiny.

What Vuelta did he win? all I can see is a stage win. As for your first example it's already been pointed out he had previous GC results, a fact which could be seen from your own link.

Also of cause you're naming people who (you think) did well in their first GT. My point is that all the eventual winners do well in their first GTs, even when young, not that an old guy can't do well in their first GT. Wiggins horrible GC placements in his first many GT's set a baseline. If he'd never ridden a GT before 2009 I'd have been less suspicious because I wouldn't have a baseline showing that Wiggins if he wins has the worst early GC record of any Tour winner post WW2. The only one how even comes close is Bjarne Riis, and I don't think that comparison is very favorable to Wiggins.

ETA: Indurain also had very bad early GC results, but again not an example that support a clean Wiggins.

Here is another one, age 32, didn't do anything in the GT's before that:

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Garin

Clearly this is quite common place.

 

[function]

The only explanation for Wiggins is that he was incredibly lazy and uncommitted as a road cyclist until 2009.

Agreed, it's obvious he dedicated all his focus and efforts on the track and it clearly worked for him as he came away with 2 golds. It's apparent he couldn't divvy up his focus towards achieving gold in the pursuit and having a good road season.

Disclaimer: before anyone attacks me, i'm not defending any doping suspicions, just his track vs road career before 2009.

 

[hrotha]

Hahaha, digging up results from 50-70 years ago to explain Wiggins.

 

[Choocher]

A) pre-2009 isn't really relevant given he was still concentrating on the track until 2008.

b) Since 2009 he has 4th in the TdF, 2010 Sky cocked up on many levels, 2011 crash in TdF but 3rd in Vuelta. So in the relevant time period the improvements are not exactly stratospheric or "incredible". Unless of course Cadel going from 26 in 2010 TdF to 1st in 2011 is equally unbelievable...

I see your point regarding focus on the track, though it seems to me as if he should have been closer back then to where he is now. Regarding Wiggins' 2009 Tour and 2011 Vuelta rides, I agree that they show a jump in performance, but those looked suspect to me too.

Regarding Evans, I believe that 2010 was the year he broke his elbow and soldiered on afterwards. It makes sense that his GC position would slide.

I would like to believe in Wiggins. He has a great back-story and he is an undeniably talented cyclist, plus, I like his independent and original personality. Believing that he can win the GC in Grand Tours clean, though, seems like a huge, and unwarranted, leap of faith to me.

 

[Bonkstrong]

Don't worry I'm always silly

Point being, track achievements are no indication of what one may achieve in their road career. Simply saying that one has world records and gold medals in other disciplines doesn't guarantee that they will be successful, let alone dominant, road cyclists. There are no guidelines for turning a top 4km'er into a top stage racer. Boardman maybe, but there is too much noise there. McGee's stage racing peak was also his pursuiting peak. There are many developing riders in pro teams who have done top 4km times, is there now a "Wiggins Model" they can follow to become record-breaking stage racers?

The only explanation for Wiggins is that he was incredibly lazy and uncommitted as a road cyclist until 2009.

Maybe Greame Brown was just being lazy?


I totally agree that track results are no indication of GT domination per se, but there is a repeated argument in our blessed Clinic that Wiggins has come from nowhere to what he's doing now and that alone is evidence of doping. Common sense says that 4 years is a long time and more than enough to turn a powerful persuit engine into an engine capable of winning a fairly soft GT on a course suited to the engine in question.

 

[will10]

Simon Jones ‏@jonessimon2000
@bradwiggins Your numbers have always been high - 495w for 20 min back in 2004. Now you have endurance and 8 kg lighter. #validperformance

 

[Sigmund]

It did. You just didn't read far enough.

True, only excuse is that the riveting action on todays stage ruined my concenteation.

 

[_frost]

Point being, track achievements are no indication of what one may achieve in their road career. Simply saying that one has world records and gold medals in other disciplines doesn't guarantee that they will be successful, let alone dominant, road cyclists. There are no guidelines for turning a top 4km'er into a top stage racer. Boardman maybe, but there is too much noise there. McGee's stage racing peak was also his pursuiting peak. There are many developing riders in pro teams who have done top 4km times, is there now a "Wiggins Model" they can follow to become record-breaking stage racers?

The only explanation for Wiggins is that he was incredibly lazy and uncommitted as a road cyclist until 2009.

4k pursuit power is very much dependend on VO2Max (over 80% of energy supplied is produced aerobically). Obviously it doesn't directly translate to road success but tells about the potential.

 

[roundabout]

Simon Jones ‏@jonessimon2000
@bradwiggins Your numbers have always been high - 495w for 20 min back in 2004. Now you have endurance and 8 kg lighter. #validperformance

Assuming that Wiggins is 69kg now, then it was about 6.4 w/kg.

 

[Sigmund]

Hahaha, digging up results from 50-70 years ago to explain Wiggins.

Not at all, quite a few people on this thread have stated that pre EPO days no one ever achieved their firat good results in a GT if they hadn't showed provess in a grand tour at a very young age. I merely started in 1950 and did a cursory and quick check to see if this notion stood up to scrutiny.

Obiously, I wasn't thourough enough in but it looks like it is not uncommon that riders acieved a top 10 finnsih without having done much before. Much defined as having best placed no better than top 30. Some were in their late 20s when that happened.

 

[Mongol_Waaijer]

Simon Jones ‏@jonessimon2000
@bradwiggins Your numbers have always been high - 495w for 20 min back in 2004. Now you have endurance and 8 kg lighter. #validperformance

So Wiggins weighed 77 kg in 2004 - and was doing 495w for 20 mins.

That's 6.4 w/kg

If you take Functional Threshold Power as around 90% of 20 minute power Wiggins had a 2004 FTP of 5.8 - 6.0 w/kg.

Isn't that around the same as he is doing now, only at a lighter weight?

 

[Cerberus]

Not at all, quite a few people on this thread have stated that pre EPO days no one ever achieved their firat good results in a GT if they hadn't showed provess in a grand tour at a very young age. I merely started in 1950 and did a cursory and quick check to see if this notion stood up to scrutiny.

Obiously, I wasn't thourough enough in but it looks like it is not uncommon that riders acieved a top 10 finnsih without having done much before. Much defined as having best placed no better than top 30. Some were in their late 20s when that happened.

You've misunderstood me, I said they did well in their first GTs, not that their first GTs was at a young age. Also top 10 is very different from winning.

 

[roundabout]

So Wiggins weighed 77 kg in 2004 - and was doing 495w for 20 mins.

That's 6.4 w/kg

If you take Functional Threshold Power as around 90% of 20 minute power Wiggins had a 2004 FTP of 5.8 - 6.0 w/kg.

Isn't that around the same as he is doing now, only at a lighter weight?

I think Vaughters mentioned 6.1 w/kg for Wiggins. So yeah, around 6 may be about right.

 

[Ferminal]

4k pursuit power is very much dependend on VO2Max (over 80% of energy supplied is produced aerobically). Obviously it doesn't directly translate to road success but tells about the potential.

Why is Wiggins the pioneer then? Thomas has gone quicker than Wiggins (I think?) over 4km, when will he become a stage racer?

Who of Phinney/Sergent/Bobridge/Dennis/Hepburn will win a Grand Tour?

To me, the lack of evidence thus far makes the 4km = stage racer link rather weak. As things stand, Wiggins is a top stage racer because of his own unique qualities, not those inherent in a champion pursuiter. Maybe things will look different ten years down the track.

 

[Tyler'sTwin]

Ok, so answer the 20 min effort vs 40+ minute effort question, I only have limited information from elite athletes, so this isn't a University study....

That said: CVV can produce about 5.9 watts per kg in peak form for 40+ minute climbs, Wiggo is a bit more at 6.1 w/kg for this length of effort.
From the pre-Tour tests both riders have done up Rocacorba (a 33 minute climb) I know that Wiggo was at 6.1w/kg and CVV was 5.7 w/kg (He was off form a bit in June). However, Wiggo did a local 10 mile TT in GB about 2 weeks before the Tour, or 5 days before the Rocacorba test. He posted a time of 18mins flat (and was disqualified for using a 1080 wheel...funny rules over there). Anyhow, his power was 482 watts, so using his Tour weight of 72 kgs, so 6.7 w/kg. So, anecdotally, there's about a 9% decrease in power when going from a 20 min effort to a 40+ min effort. At 6.7 w/kg you certainly can climb at a VAM of 1750, but at 6.1 you wont even hit 1700 (again, anecdotal based on experience).
The last TT in the Tour Wiggo averaged 434 watts, consistent with his previous tests of 40+ minutes and just about 6.1 w/kg. I dont have any data for Wiggo up climbs in the Tour, as he didnt use a PowerTap.

JV

10 characters

 

[red_death]

A) Pre-2009 is highly relevant, even if you would rather it weren't. He seems to have become much lighter without much drastic decrease in his power. In fact, he is better than he ever was TTing. Even then, he rode a road season - he had plenty of time to try and get some results.

B) Since 2009, he has gone from struggling to hold onto the favourites to dominating the entire calender. That is pretty impressive. Cadel's jump is irrelevant - he had been there or thereabouts for years, and had 2 below-par years.

You can't have it both ways and say that context is important/not-important for one and not the other!

As I said on another thread I am not sure that BW TT'ing is that much better, I think the course suited him (and CF) and TM/FC were not on top form. The reality was that prior to 2009 BW's focus was not the road despite the fact he spent a lot of time on it.

 

[Bonkstrong]

Why is Wiggins the pioneer then? Thomas has gone quicker than Wiggins (I think?) over 4km, when will he become a stage racer?

Who of Phinney/Sergent/Bobridge/Dennis/Hepburn will win a Grand Tour?

It's almost the "perfect storm" situation.

If any of those above turn their back on the track and work for 4 solid years with their sole fucus of winning a GT, have a team with an almost unlimited budget and some extremely talented domestiques, then all the serious competition is neutralized by injury, suspension, crash or other problems, the GT route is almost taylor made to their strengths with plenty of TT km's - then I don't see it as impossible.

Unfotunately, most of the above is out of their hands. One thing I'm positive about (no pun intended) is that it can indeed be done without the need for PED's.

 

[Choocher]

I cited links from Dutch media regarding what former Rabo riders said about Leinders - and they told me that just because something was published elsewhere without resulting in legal action that didn't mean it wasn't "libellous".

There is a guy on the Live coverage who is getting some digs at Sky into the feed.

Is this the Guardian still? Their response seems really weak to me, though it's their prerogative. I suppose they've been sued before and just need to cover themselves.

It's too bad that society has devolved to the point where their readers can't even share opinions based upon what people have actually said and done. I guess, technically, it is a comments, and not debate, section though.

The interview with Wiggins I was referring to came from the World Cycling Productions TdF DVD from 2006. I think Gary Imlach did the interview.

 

[The Cobra]

So from the last half dozen pages:

1) Wiggins has always had top level power in the 5.8-6.1 W/kg range.

2) Pre 2009 didnt care about the road and was focused only on the track where he was successful.

3) Now that the road scene is cleaning up somewhat Wiggins level which has been fairly consistant throughout his career is finally good enough to start winning some big races.

Maybe, just maybe Wiggins really is a big big talent and is doing it clean. I know this doesn't fit in with clinic logic but there you go.

 

[Choocher]

So from the last half dozen pages:

1) Wiggins has always had top level power in the 5.8-6.1 W/kg range.

2) Pre 2009 didnt care about the road and was focused only on the track where he was successful.

3) Now that the road scene is cleaning up somewhat Wiggins level which has been fairly consistant throughout his career is finally good enough to start winning some big races.

Maybe, just maybe Wiggins really is a big big talent and is doing it clean. I know this doesn't fit in with clinic logic but there you go.

It's possible, and I would like to believe that. It's just that I don't at this point, and it's interesting to get other perspectives. It would be cool to watch a Tour with the assumption that the top riders are clean. I'm not there yet.

 

[mastersracer]

So from the last half dozen pages:

1) Wiggins has always had top level power in the 5.8-6.1 W/kg range.

2) Pre 2009 didnt care about the road and was focused only on the track where he was successful.

3) Now that the road scene is cleaning up somewhat Wiggins level which has been fairly consistant throughout his career is finally good enough to start winning some big races.

Maybe, just maybe Wiggins really is a big big talent and is doing it clean. I know this doesn't fit in with clinic logic but there you go.

+ a Tour route that looks like he chose it
+ the absence of the top 2 riders
+ the biggest threat on his own team controlled

Wiggins will be a one-off grand tour winner. He's already shown his vulnerability. An HC climb finish would have popped him.

 

[red_death]

Why is Wiggins the pioneer then? Thomas has gone quicker than Wiggins (I think?) over 4km, when will he become a stage racer?

Who of Phinney/Sergent/Bobridge/Dennis/Hepburn will win a Grand Tour?

To me, the lack of evidence thus far makes the 4km = stage racer link rather weak. As things stand, Wiggins is a top stage racer because of his own unique qualities, not those inherent in a champion pursuiter. Maybe things will look different ten years down the track.

I don't think anyone is saying that it is nailed on that a pursuiter will necessarily make a good stage racer, but equally to say that a pursuiter can't make a good stage racer (and is therefore a sure sign of a doper) is equally ridiculous.

Thomas wore the White jersey for a period on either 2010 or 2011. Hasn't he said that he wants to concentrate on the road after the Olympics.

CE and BW in many ways have adopted a similar (Indurain like) template to the Tour - limit losses in the mountains and win it on the TTs. BW hasn't had Contador or A Schleck to deal with so it has been easier for (a very strong) Sky team to control the race.

 

[red_death]

+ a Tour route that looks like he chose it
+ the absence of the top 2 riders
+ the biggest threat on his own team controlled

Wiggins will be a one-off grand tour winner. He's already shown his vulnerability. An HC climb finish would have popped him.

I suspect you might well be right on all those counts.