Krebs cycle said:
In a pro-cycling world of unknowns, the best I can do is believe in probabilities and not absolutes. The person I am most certain is not doping is Cadel Evans, because (amongst other things) if you check the link above about VO2 and power output and then refer to the data that was posted (ie: 87ml/kg) you'll find that sits almost perfectly with his actual performances. Now I don't know for a fact that Cadel has never doped, but the evidence that points to him being a doper is virtually non-existent. I think we need a bit more than a meeting with Ferrari 12yrs ago as something to go on.
The dramatic performance loss after the introduction of the biopassport i certainly helpful, but the way I read Science of Sports they're not saying that the performances are within the provably possibly clean limit, simply that they aren't into the provably, or close to it, not-possible clean. I hope I'm wrong of cause, but I wouldn't take even odds that cadel, or wiggins or that just 1 tour winner in the last 20 years is clean.
Krebs cycle said:
Same goes for Wiggins. His performances are within the realms of known human physiology, and contrary to what some people have been saying he has not magically and suddenly increased his performance level in GTs, but rather it has been a steady improvement over a 7yr period.
This is just not true. This is the list of all of Wiggins GTs.
This doesn't come out well, see link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_Wiggins#Grand_Tour_General_Classification_results_timeline
Grand Tour General Classification results timeline
Grand Tour 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Giro 123 - - 134 71 40 -
Tour - 124 WD - 4 24 WD
Vuelta - - - - - - 3
WD = withdrew.
As you can see his performance is consistent, but not improving, between 2005 and 2008. Between 2009 and now it's varies wildly, but it can with a bit of good will, be seen as consistent and improving. The inconsistency between his fourth place in the Tour of 2009 however, and his result previous years is incredibly jarring. Blood doping has the proven ability to affect that kind of performance jump, but can you think of any comparable performance jump in pre-EPO times?
Krebs cycle said:
Lastly, neither he nor Cadel Evans have a list of witnesses a mile long ready to testify that they are dopers.
True, but the same can be said for several people who tested positive.
Krebs cycle said:
Had Rogers and Porte been sticking with the lead group until the end of the mtn stages I would be much more suspicious, but IMO it is believable that they can bury themselves early in the stage ie: they are working harder than the top GC riders, and so they paid for it on the final climbs and now sit miles back on GC.
Why would you find that suspicious. both Porte and Rogerns have far better pedigree GT wise than wiggins had pre 2009. Porte even has a top 10 in the Giro, which mathematically he'd have held even without his breakaway time (we can't know how the race would really have gone of cause). How can you say that him following the best would be suspicious and not see that Wiggins much, much greater performance jump at a higher age, is far more suspicious?
Krebs cycle said:
Froome has not come from nowhere and rapidly improved. He has also steadily improved over a several year period and the graphs that were posted previously clearly indicate that pro cyclists come into their peak around 27-30yrs of age, so this business about having to show GT potential when you are 21-25 is not mandatory. Obviously if you do show potential, that's great, you are likely to go on and be a GC contender, but there is no reason why someone with the right physiology cannot develop into a GC contender from the age of 26 through 29 as opposed to 22 through 25. In those early years they may have had a different focus in their career.
You're still ignoring the fact that before the development of synthetic EPO no Tour winner after WW2 has ever experiences a similar performance jump. That's a cold hard fact. Take away blood doping and talent shows early. Granted Frooms performance jump isn't nearly as jarring as Wiggins, having a 34th place in the Giro at age 24ish, but it's still somewhat suspicious.