Team Ineos (Formerly the Sky thread)

[The Hitch]

So once again, are you going to respond to any of the challenges made to your theories, or just ignore them and ignore them and ignore them?

For example care to explain how Froome " did better than the white jersey" on Alpe d huez when he finished considerably behind it?

. And, yes, doing better than the white jersey on the Queen stage of your first Tour, is an indication of potential.

Or respond to this challenge that was specifically adressed at you?
And the whole forum is waiting for your response to this

once again with this?

Giro d'Italia 2008, General classification:

1. CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 89h56'49" 500
2. RICCO Riccardo SDV 01'57" 375
3. BRUSEGHIN Marzio LAM 02'54" 315
4. PELLIZOTTI Franco LIQ 02'56" 270
5. MENCHOV Denis RAB 03'37" 245
6. SELLA Emanuele CSF 04'31" 220
7. VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen SIL 06'30" 195
8. DI LUCA Danilo LPR 07'15" 170
9. POZZOVIVO Domenico CSF 07'53" 155
10. SIMONI Gilberto SDA 11'03" 140
11. NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 20'14" 125


Tour de France 2008, Stage 4 : Cholet I.T.T. (29.5 km):

9. NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 29" 2
31. FROOME Chris BAR 01'31" 0

Tour de France 2008, Stage 6 : Aigurande - Super Besse (195.5 km)

49. NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 02'19" 0
73. FROOME Chris BAR 04'48" 0

Tour de France 2008, Stage 9 : Toulouse - Bagnères-de-Bigorre (224 km)

12. NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 01'17" 0 (with all the favourites)
46. FROOME Chris BAR 01'57" 0

Tour de France 2008, Stage 10 : Pau - Hautacam (156 km)

9. NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 03'40" 2
115. FROOME Chris BAR 33'14" 0

Tour de France 2008, Stage 15 : Embrun - Prato Nevoso (Ita) (183 km)

19. NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 05'46" 0
125. FROOME Chris BAR 25'33" 0

Tour de France 2008, Stage 16 : Cuneo (Ita) - Jausiers (157 km)

31. NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 05'13" 0
136. FROOME Chris BAR 31'56"

Tour de France 2008, Stage 17 : Embrun - L'Alpe-d'Huez (210.5 km)

30. FROOME Chris BAR 11'41
40. NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 17'21" 0

Tour de France 2008, Stage 20 : Cérilly - Saint-Amand-Montrond I.T.T. (53 km)

14. FROOME Chris BAR 02'39" 0
47. NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 05'07" 0

Tour de France 2008, General classification

18. NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ 28'33" 82
81. FROOME Chris BAR 2h22'33" 20

you keep giving the ApD result as a prof of froome's immense talent and give nibali as comparing device as they are roughly the same age yet you ignore all the circumstances that shown that at the time nibali was about 20 leagues ahead of froome and the only reason why froome gained time on nibali over the last 2 important GC stages was because nibali was completely cooked from doing a Giro- Tour double as a 23 year old.

You know, since you care so much that people respond to questions asked of them

I'm still waiting on your citations as per your post I responded to yesterday...

 

[the sceptic]

The real problem is this: there are no laws of rider development. There are simply trends. The variance depends on the variance of the developmental paths riders take. Since the sport was so long entrenched in Europe, these paths were quite narrow until recently. It is absurd to apply the progression schedule of a European pro to Froome - in any case, trends always have outliers.

What does that even mean? So just because Dawg didnt get to train on european roads his development cant be compared to european riders? Doesnt that mean he is even more of an outlier, since you know, african riders arent exactly known for winning the tour.

 

[mastersracer]

So once again, are you going to respond to any of the challenges made to your theories, or just ignore them and ignore them and ignore them?

For example care to explain how Froome " did better than the white jersey" on Alpe d huez when he finished considerably behind it?



Or respond to this challenge that was specifically adressed at you?
And the whole forum is waiting for your response to this



You know, since you care so much that people respond to questions asked of them

I did in other posts - not directly to yours. From the context of what I said, I meant Nibali on Alpe D'huez, not Schleck (yes, Nibali lost the white jersey to Schleck on the previous stage). Re Parrulo, I had already stated earlier that Froome was not aiming for a GC placing in 2008 Tour. It was Nibali's 3 grand tour, and it would be absurd to suppose Froome could only demonstrate potential by a high GC placing or beating Nibali on GC. Fact is, he was able to make a very select group on stage 17 - even his DS was elated by it. Fine if you don't think that shows potential. I think it does. As does his ITT performances in that Tour.

 

[mastersracer]

What does that even mean? So just because Dawg didnt get to train on european roads his development cant be compared to european riders? Doesnt that mean he is even more of an outlier, since you know, african riders arent exactly known for winning the tour.

Yes, he's even more of an outlier. But I also meant even within a typical developmental environment there will be outliers. Coyle, who wrote Armstrong's War also wrote a book called The Talent Code - as he illustrates, 'talent' isn't randomly distributed - it's clustered. There are lots of reasons for this, including what James Flynn calls social multipliers:

http://www.psychometrics.cam.ac.uk/page/125/flynn-8-basketball.htm

 

[Ferminal]

I know I shouldn't be doing this, but how much did Froome develop between 2008 and 2010?

Not even the early edition of Sky marginal gains made him a better rider than he was at Barloworld.

But hey, a development curve is a development curve.

He wasn't the only one who struggled in 2010.

On that note it's funny that Petrano, or was it Siusi, hasn't been mentioned.

 

[Ripper]

Fair points! Not sure Andy will be coming second in anything much now, though.

Very true.

 

[Ripper]

....

OC and time on hand. Wow.

 

[Ferminal]

So what, if you have talent it will show. My local club produced a pro cyclist and for a long time there was little to no cycling culture in our area or the country for that matter. If there were 20 guys even cycling in a 100 mile radius, that was it. The highest level rider our club ever produced was a an A2 standard amateur rider and then boom, out of nowhere one of the best current cyclists our country ever produced, no cycling background, nothing.

Just to add to that, coming from South Africa didn't stop Robbie Hunter from winning a GT stage as a first year pro.

Actually it's time this has some discussion.

If you come from Spain/France/Italy, as an u23 you ride for an amateur team and hardly leave the country. The racing is hot, but unless you're targeted by a pro team you're probably not getting elite support. Most of them would have their own coaches, just like Froome would have had in the Republic.

By the time Froome turned pro, he had raced in Africa, Australia, Asia and Europe. In 2007 he rode for an established Continental team, a team which Augustyn had graduated from a year earlier and showed very good climbing form in his debut pro season. You may have also heard of Peter and Martin Velits, they spent two years at the same team. The year after Peter left he was still an u23 (winning the Worlds of course) but raced quite often against the pros - with very good results.

Sure, Froome's development may not have been what you'd get in Australia or The Netherlands, but let's not pretend he was more disadvantaged than anyone else. His final u23 season was actually solid, he was more than ready to become a pro.

 

[Ripper]

I did in other posts - not directly to yours. From the context of what I said, I meant Nibali on Alpe D'huez, not Schleck (yes, Nibali lost the white jersey to Schleck on the previous stage). Re Parrulo, I had already stated earlier that Froome was not aiming for a GC placing in 2008 Tour. It was Nibali's 3 grand tour, and it would be absurd to suppose Froome could only demonstrate potential by a high GC placing or beating Nibali on GC. Fact is, he was able to make a very select group on stage 17 - even his DS was elated by it. Fine if you don't think that shows potential. I think it does. As does his ITT performances in that Tour.

Looks to me like his only aim was to survive that Tour ...

 

[Parrulo]

I did in other posts - not directly to yours. From the context of what I said, I meant Nibali on Alpe D'huez, not Schleck (yes, Nibali lost the white jersey to Schleck on the previous stage). Re Parrulo, I had already stated earlier that Froome was not aiming for a GC placing in 2008 Tour. It was Nibali's 3 grand tour, and it would be absurd to suppose Froome could only demonstrate potential by a high GC placing or beating Nibali on GC. Fact is, he was able to make a very select group on stage 17 - even his DS was elated by it. Fine if you don't think that shows potential. I think it does. As does his ITT performances in that Tour.

you indeed weren't talking about GC, but you were comparing both riders performance on that particular stage (the AdH one) as if nibali's performance on that stage was the norm for him at that stage of his career and not an exception to the norm caused by being a 23 year old riding at the end of his second straight GT completely exhausted, not only that you also willingly ignored the massive gap in results between them up to that point in the race.

what you did was a bit like saying Eros capechi has certainly shown to be a massive talent bigger then kreuziguer(both the same age and 25 at the time of the example) because he was with the best for first few km's of the giau on the stage to Cortina d'Ampezzo and finished the stage minutes ahead of kreuziguer who already had a good record in GT's, ignoring completely that kreuziguer cracked big time that day because of an hunger knock and that for the rest of the race kreuziguer was much superior even winning one of the tougher stages of the race.

 

[Parrulo]

Actually it's time this has some discussion.

If you come from Spain/France/Italy, as an u23 you ride for an amateur team and hardly leave the country. The racing is hot, but unless you're targeted by a pro team you're probably not getting elite support. Most of them would have their own coaches, just like Froome would have had in the Republic.

By the time Froome turned pro, he had raced in Africa, Australia, Asia and Europe. In 2007 he rode for an established Continental team, a team which Augustyn had graduated from a year earlier and showed very good climbing form in his debut pro season. You may have also heard of Peter and Martin Velits, they spent two years at the same team. The year after Peter left he was still an u23 (winning the Worlds of course) but raced quite often against the pros - with very good results.

Sure, Froome's development may not have been what you'd get in Australia or The Netherlands, but let's not pretend he was more disadvantaged than anyone else. His final u23 season was actually solid, he was more than ready to become a pro.

this, chris froome had better training and racing conditions as an u23 then all the u23 riders from countries like portugal and the eastern block.

 

[DirtyWorks]

this, chris froome had better training and racing conditions as an u23 then all the u23 riders from countries like portugal and the eastern block.

This is not sufficient conditions to make a GC contender though.
-If he had destroyed important development races, then I'd have no choice but to agree.
-If the rest of the Pro field had gotten slower presumably because they were really, really off the oxygen vector doping and then here comes Froome developing at the perfect time sort of clean like the rest, then I'd have no choice but to agree.

I was going to mention how USA Cycling flies riders all over the world, but that federation is not a good reference. Instead, how about comparing Talansky and Mini Phinney both podiumed key U23 events and did well almost right away in the Pro peloton. Not so with Froome.

 

[Franklin]

Froome and his family moved to South Africa when he was 14 and he was already cycling by then. How many eventual pro's take up the sport later than that? Lots.

According to Robbie Hunter, the cycling scene in South Africa is pretty big, they had an international race in the 90's called the Rapport Tour and lots of amateur/leisure cyclists. Sounds like there was a bigger scene in South Africa than where I come from.

Again, Robbie Hunter who is of course South African won a Vuelta stage in his first year as a pro. Care to address this??

And here is another sledgehammer to the argument.

It seems Del didn't read the scripture and kinda forgot that not only Froome wasn't raised in the bush, he actually matured in South Africa.

It's time the argument should wind down both Froome's potential as his so called disadvantaged youth are thoroughly and utterly debunked.

 

[fruit bars with eyes]

Dan Martin came from a cycling background, son of a cyclist, nephew of a grand tour winner, while Froome grew up in Kenya/SA very far from the pro cycling scene, comparing their first year pro results is not really fair

nephew of a doper too

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

And here is another sledgehammer to the argument.

It seems Del didn't read the scripture and kinda forgot that not only Froome wasn't raised in the bush, he actually matured in South Africa.

It's time the argument should wind down both Froome's potential as his so called disadvantaged youth are thoroughly and utterly debunked.

Aint it grand?

On the one hand we have him coming from a third world country that would explain his late blossoming, on the other hand we have him coming from being used to living at altitude what would explain his capabilities.

We must assume Darryl Impey is yet to peak then. And, not to mention MA Haijun, the Chinese TT king of 2007.

 

[Spencer the Half Wit]

Serious question re Froome. If (and it is a big if) he is clean and now a GC contender and given his background, the fact that it was his first tour, the possibility of him having Bilharzia and the fact that some(most) of the peleton were using PEDs where would you have expected him to finish in the 2008 TDF? What sort of potential should he have shown?

I can recall the Eurosport commentators in the 2011 Vuelta saying a number of teams had been interested in signing him, as SKY hadn't offered him a contract. JV has recently said he was interested in signing him, so he can't be an absolute donkey. However, as LS so eloquently stated, a lot of things have to fall into place for him to have such a stellar rise cleanly.

 

[DirtyWorks]

Aint it grand?

On the one hand we have him coming from a third world country that would explain his late blossoming, on the other hand we have him coming from being used to living at altitude what would explain his capabilities.

What's wrong with you? Why do you hate cycling? Pat and Hein are trying to grow a sport by attracting viewers and enrich themselves leveraging their UCI leadership.

And yes, the new viewers will be asked to believe something like that.

 

[mattghg]

Serious question re Froome. If (and it is a big if) he is clean and now a GC contender and given his background, the fact that it was his first tour, the possibility of him having Bilharzia and the fact that some(most) of the peleton were using PEDs where would you have expected him to finish in the 2008 TDF? What sort of potential should he have shown?

I can recall the Eurosport commentators in the 2011 Vuelta saying a number of teams had been interested in signing him, as SKY hadn't offered him a contract. JV has recently said he was interested in signing him, so he can't be an absolute donkey. However, as LS so eloquently stated, a lot of things have to fall into place for him to have such a stellar rise cleanly.

I don't think he had bilharzia as far back as 2008.

 

[Spencer the Half Wit]

I don't think he had bilharzia as far back as 2008.

Fair enough, it's difficult to pin down exactly when he says he's had it.

 

[Ferminal]

Serious question re Froome. If (and it is a big if) he is clean and now a GC contender and given his background, the fact that it was his first tour, the possibility of him having Bilharzia and the fact that some(most) of the peleton were using PEDs where would you have expected him to finish in the 2008 TDF? What sort of potential should he have shown?

The 2008 Tour was pretty clean after the CERA guys, put it this way - if Froome/Contador/Rodriguez ride like they have been, they aren't going to do a 41 and a half minute Alpe d'Huez as was the case for the top GC guys after Sastre.

As for the question, I don't think it matters. You can't pick out one performance/race and say it is or isn't indicative of future potential. Of course if he had a debut like Pinot you would be expecting big things of him in the future, but he didn't. That he didn't is not to say that rules him out of ever being a top3 rider. There are too many reasons why one may or may not have a good GT debut. In the case of Froome I think we are better overlooking the race rather than pretending it showed anything other than being a solid professional that comes with finishing your debut GT and not being in the bus every day. It tells us nothing about his lower/upper limits.

His most interesting 2008 performances are the 2nd ITT, Appennino and beating Lars Bak on Mt. Buller.

The reason for the surprise of Froome in 2011 is that he was rarely present at the sharp end of any race. Most riders who jump from the pack into the top few riders in a GT do so on the back of one two three years progression in shorter races where they have already achieved very good results. Froome was rather static (for whatever reason) for three years as a solid professional who could ITT and climb ok so it's no surprise that people were a bit shocked to see him dropping Cobo.

Was it expected, was it normal? No. Does it guarantee that he doped? No.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Good thing nothing Wiggins says is believable...

https://twitter.com/owenslot/status/317188414611005440

According to Wiggins, his performances in training have outstripped anything he did before the Tour de France last year

 

[Wiggo Warrior]

Quite possibly.

But we're then believing that Froome was developing his skill set (to the point where, were it not for the illness, he'd be becoming a GT contender) but the illness was simply preventing him from reaching that. Not only that but as his skill set increased, the vice-like grip of the illness got worse so that despite improving as a bike rider his results were actually worsening.

Then, the illness suddenly was treated when his contract was due, and he was able to use all of the skills he'd picked up over the last 3 years clandestinely and without anybody ever noticing, and turned into a GT podium rider. You'd have thought that even as he was physically unable to produce the same results, he might have been able to at least stagnate by compensating with improved nous.

It's just too many leaps of faith for a transformation so absurd. The Alpe d'Huez day that mastersracer points out showed enough promise to say that Froome could be a decent pro bike rider, but it's nothing like enough to say that suddenly materialising into a guy who would have won two GTs had it not been for bonus seconds or being hampered by his own team - and who is now seen as the elite climber in the péloton bar none - is not utterly ridiculous. Remember: Emanuele Sella had a good day in the mountains an awful lot before 2008. He still looked ridiculous when that year rolled around.

Change the flag next to his name. Make it a Spanish one. He doesn't have to be a genuine Spaniard as you could then make the argument of growing up with cycling - he could be Argentine or something, like Flecha. Now how's he looking? I have a chaque he wouldn't have so many defenders in the Clinic, and the thread about him would have petered out in a few pages of people agreeing that he was doping.

Great post as usual, but the timeline here's a little off according to what I've read. Diagnosis of the parasite in Kenya was reportedly made in November 2010 while he was over there for a family wedding, presumably treatment one followed shortly thereafter and repeated after 6 months in April/May 2011. He still seems to be following the same approximate 6 monthly cycle of checks/treatment if necessary (although I believe the early 2012 treatment was brought forward to aid his recovery from the post Algarve bout of pneumonia).

Regarding the picking up skills part of the post I don't believe there's any evidence for that. His reaction to the bilharzia affecting his endurance seems to have been spending two years overtraining himself and attempting to ride the same as he used to be able to and therefore bonking on climbs etc.

He started working with Bobby J at the start of 2011 and his words about this period (2012 Procycling print version, no link that I've seen) were telling "Chris didn't know how to race. I needed to teach him to get the watts out at the right time. To do that we tried to hold him back in the first few stages in the Vuelta last year, get him to race steadily. It worked there and this year we've basically used the same tactic at Romandie, the Dauphine and the Tour"

Considering his performance at Vuelta 2012 I am not sure the lessons had been securely learned even then, since he made several moves that seemed to hurt his overall chances, but he does seem to be doing better this year.

Maybe it is a result of my recent entry into watching road cycling but a persons nationality has no bearing on whether I think they are doping, nor does the 'nice guy' label some people have given him. Chris Froome may indeed be doping in which case I hope he is caught. He may also be clean and in my opinion he is, not because of his nationality or personality but because there are plenty of indications in print that to at least some of those within the pro peloton and on staff at Aigle his potential was recognised as early in his career as 2007. The fact that it has taken so long for this manifest potential to be realised in races is a shame, but his breakthrough results at the Vuelta in 2011 are not an absolute indicator of doping starting in 2011, although I will not attempt to argue they aren't suspicious.

 

[pmcg76]

Great post as usual, but the timeline here's a little off according to what I've read. Diagnosis of the parasite in Kenya was reportedly made in November 2010 while he was over there for a family wedding, presumably treatment one followed shortly thereafter and repeated after 6 months in April/May 2011. He still seems to be following the same approximate 6 monthly cycle of checks/treatment if necessary (although I believe the early 2012 treatment was brought forward to aid his recovery from the post Algarve bout of pneumonia).

Regarding the picking up skills part of the post I don't believe there's any evidence for that. His reaction to the bilharzia affecting his endurance seems to have been spending two years overtraining himself and attempting to ride the same as he used to be able to and therefore bonking on climbs etc.

He started working with Bobby J at the start of 2011 and his words about this period (2012 Procycling print version, no link that I've seen) were telling "Chris didn't know how to race. I needed to teach him to get the watts out at the right time. To do that we tried to hold him back in the first few stages in the Vuelta last year, get him to race steadily. It worked there and this year we've basically used the same tactic at Romandie, the Dauphine and the Tour"

Considering his performance at Vuelta 2012 I am not sure the lessons had been securely learned even then, since he made several moves that seemed to hurt his overall chances, but he does seem to be doing better this year.

Maybe it is a result of my recent entry into watching road cycling but a persons nationality has no bearing on whether I think they are doping, nor does the 'nice guy' label some people have given him. Chris Froome may indeed be doping in which case I hope he is caught. He may also be clean and in my opinion he is, not because of his nationality or personality but because there are plenty of indications in print that to at least some of those within the pro peloton and on staff at Aigle his potential was recognised as early in his career as 2007. The fact that it has taken so long for this manifest potential to be realised in races is a shame, but his breakthrough results at the Vuelta in 2011 are not an absolute indicator of doping starting in 2011, although I will not attempt to argue they aren't suspicious.

This is a perceptive post for a relative newcomer as you say. The last sentence nails it for me. I actually don't automatically label people as dopers but I have my own particular suspicion index and Froome is defo a 9-10 on that index. Guys improving from nowhere is not normal but improving from nowhere to be at a level of being in the top 2 GT riders in the peloton is sorta unbelievable, something that only really happened in the EPO years.

Good to see Del162 did actually stop with the nonsense.

 

[The Hitch]

This is a perceptive post for a relative newcomer as you say. The last sentence nails it for me. I actually don't automatically label people as dopers but I have my own particular suspicion index and Froome is defo a 9-10 on that index. Guys improving from nowhere is not normal but improving from nowhere to be at a level of being in the top 2 GT riders in the peloton is sorta unbelievable, something that only really happened in the EPO years.

Good to see Del162 did actually stop with the nonsense.

Top 2? Who in the peloton has been close to froome in the last 1 and a half years.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

Serious question re Froome. If (and it is a big if) he is clean and now a GC contender and given his background, the fact that it was his first tour, the possibility of him having Bilharzia and the fact that some(most) of the peleton were using PEDs where would you have expected him to finish in the 2008 TDF? What sort of potential should he have shown?

When he would have had bilharzia that Tour he would be a dead man.

But, for your question, I should say top 50. And, not being in the autobus for 3/4 of the Tour except for one stage. Lets say for example Thomas de Gendt in his first Tour.

Most riders who jump from the pack into the top few riders in a GT do so on the back of one two three years progression in shorter races where they have already achieved very good results.

Yupz, that would be a normal trajectory/carreerpath.

Great post as usual, but the timeline here's a little off according to what I've read. Diagnosis of the parasite in Kenya was reportedly made in November 2010 while he was over there for a family wedding, presumably treatment one followed shortly thereafter and repeated after 6 months in April/May 2011. He still seems to be following the same approximate 6 monthly cycle of checks/treatment if necessary (although I believe the early 2012 treatment was brought forward to aid his recovery from the post Algarve bout of pneumonia).

That would not explain him hanging on a motorbike on the Mortirolo and subsequently being disqualified, in 2010 that is.

On the 2011 treatment:

“I’ve had to repeat the treatment after the Tour de Suisse and I hope it’s over now”, he said, as this cost him a start at the Tour de France, a race he experienced as early as in 2008 as a neo-pro with Barloworld.

http://www.realpeloton.com/

So, in 2011 he receives treatment and thus misses the Tour that starts 3 weeks after Suisse. Do note, Froome had pretty decent results at that Tour de Suisse, that does not sound like someone fighting a serious disease.
http://www.teamsky.com/race-hub/0,27714,21502,00.html

Headlines on the SKY site:
SOLID DISPLAY FROM FROOME
TOP-10 TT FOR FROOME
QUIET DAY IN SWITZERLAND
“Froomey didn’t have the legs today that he had yesterday, which is a bit disappointing, but by no means a disaster''

That does not strike me to be a rider that is sick.

In 2013 he gets treatment in the middele of januari and rocks the peloton 3 weeks later and for the weeks to follow. Same thing happened last year [2012] just before Romandie.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/froome-still-battling-parasitic-infection

Six weeks later he again is [one of] the best GT rider in the peloton, for two and a halve months! Remember how good he was in the first week or so of the Vuelta.

On the other hand, how come Team SKY let a rider start the Tour de Romandie who is fighting a disease that attacks red bloodcells? Would Geert Leinders do so?

there are plenty of indications in print that to at least some of those within the pro peloton and on staff at Aigle his potential was recognised as early in his career as 2007

Have you seen Thomas Dekker's when he was still a junior de facto?

Perhaps you have a source on those 'Aigle numbers'?

I like your open mind.