Team Rankings - GT qualificiation

[Anonymous]

So Fly V Australia and Vaconsoleil looking almost certain to miss out on a 2011 TDF place.

Depends if there are any scandals involving other teams of old men, sorry, teams, completely random unnamed teams, that lead the organisers to un-invite them i guess.

 

[JRanton]

Depends if there are any scandals involving other teams of old men, sorry, teams, completely random unnamed teams, that lead the organisers to un-invite them i guess.

True, that's one variable in their favour. The other would be if the Tour had more than 22 teams but I can't see it.

 

[ingsve]

So with Cervelo disbanding does that mean it's now down to the top 18 teams for the GT automatic qualification? (still 17 teams qualifying obviously but with Cervelo's current 13th place no longer meaning anything).

If that's the case AG2R would be the team to benefit based on the current rankings.

There will surely be 22 teams at the Tour again next year considering that three of the wild cards will have to go to French teams (FDJ, Cofidis and BBox). That just leaves two wild cards available which will surely go to Schleck's team and Geox.

So Fly V Australia and Vaconsoleil looking almost certain to miss out on a 2011 TDF place.

We simply don't know if there is any "reserves" for the guaranteed spots. My guess would be that there isn't. The rule as written is that the top 17 teams of the 2010 team ranking gets invited. So the 18th team would obviously not be in the top 17. I would think that they simply add another wild card if one of the top 17 teams can't show up for whatever reason (like disbanding).

 

[JRanton]

The UCI have publiched two mutually contradictory sets of admission criteria for Grand Tours and Monuments.

On the one hand they have said that any team who finish in the top 17 of the rankings have guaranteed entry into those races in 2011. This is not dependent on who they have in their squad by January 2011, but on who rode, and won points, for them in 2010.

On the other hand they have said that any non ProTour team will be limited as to how many of those events they will be able to enter as they will have only 18 points to spend, and entry to the 3 GTs alone would cost 21 points.

UCI seem to me to have two ways out of this: the honourable one would be to clarify that the 18 point rule was a proposal, but not taken up (the Press Release from the meeting at which it was to be discussed was silent on the issue)

Their second way out is in three parts: (a) be greatly relieved that Cervelo are not running a team next year, (b) make sure that BMC get a ProTour Licence, and (c) hope and pray that Nico Roche has a good Vuelta, or that AG2R otherwise get enough points in the last four events to overhaul Androni Giacattoli for 17th place. That way their inconsistencies will become redundant, and they will never have to face up to the consequences of such ill managed policies.

How litigious are the management teams behind BMC or Androni likely to be in the case of (b) or (c) not happening?

I don't see it as an issue really. BMC and Androni would be guaranteed entry into those races and just use their 18 points for other pro tour races (if there's actually any ''spend'' for those other races). The rule about the non-pro tour teams will surely only apply to the teams who don't make the top 17 in the UCI world rankings (top 18 really with Cervelo pulling out). All the more reason for Team Schleck and Geox to be allocated (or renewed in Geox/Footon's case) pro tour licences. Dump someone like FDJ or Euskatel along with Milram's spot being up for graps, because FDJ/Euskatel will be guaranteed entry to the top races in 2011 anyway.

So 10 teams already have PT licences for 2011.

Columbia, Astana, Liquigas will be renewed. Geox (Footon) and Movistar (Caisse) licences will effectively be renewed. Give new ones to BMC and Team Schleck and probably renew Euskatel's with FDJ missing out. It's not entirely necessary to grant a licence to BMC at the expense of FDJ but looking at the likely squads for next season it will happen anyway.

Fly V Australia, Cofidis, BBOX and Vacansoleil being the others to miss out on a PT licence.


EDIT - Actually FDJ would only be (relatively) certain of a Tour de France wild card so missing out on a pro tour licence would have very significant implications for them.

 

[JRanton]

We simply don't know if there is any "reserves" for the guaranteed spots. My guess would be that there isn't. The rule as written is that the top 17 teams of the 2010 team ranking gets invited. So the 18th team would obviously not be in the top 17. I would think that they simply add another wild card if one of the top 17 teams can't show up for whatever reason (like disbanding).

That's perfectly possible. However, with AG2R currently sitting in 18th place it wouldn't make much difference in terms of Tour spots because AG2R would be guaranteed that extra wild card over Vacansoleil/Fly V anyway. It would matter of course if Roche can get a high enough placing in the Vuelta to move AG2R above Androni into 17th place in the rankings. That is the best hope the Vacan/Fly V management are probably clinging on to at this stage.

 

[auscyclefan94]

So with Cervelo disbanding does that mean it's now down to the top 18 teams for the GT automatic qualification? (still 17 teams qualifying obviously but with Cervelo's current 13th place no longer meaning anything).

If that's the case AG2R would be the team to benefit based on the current rankings.

There will surely be 22 teams at the Tour again next year considering that three of the wild cards will have to go to French teams (FDJ, Cofidis and BBox). That just leaves two wild cards available which will surely go to Schleck's team and Geox.

So Fly V Australia and Vaconsoleil looking almost certain to miss out on a 2011 TDF place.

So the almost definites are:
1 ASTANA (AST) KAZ 980
2 TEAM SAXO BANK (SAX) DEN 851
3 RABOBANK (RAB) NED 768
4 TEAM HTC - COLUMBIA (THR) USA 765
5 TEAM KATUSHA (KAT) RUS 750
6 LIQUIGAS-DOIMO (LIQ) ITA 670
7 GARMIN - TRANSITIONS (GRM) USA 668
8 BMC RACING TEAM (BMC) USA 633
9 OMEGA PHARMA-LOTTO (OLO) BEL 631
10 CAISSE D'EPARGNE (GCE) ESP 616
11 TEAM RADIOSHACK (RSH) USA 593
12 LAMPRE-FARNESE VINI (LAM) ITA 506
14 EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI (EUS) ESP 428
15 SKY PROFESSIONAL CYCLING TEAM (SKY) GBR 375
16 QUICK STEP (QST) BEL 312

Then teams fighting it out for the other placings

17 17 ANDRONI GIOCATTOLI - SERRAMENTI PVC DIQUIGIOVANNI (AND) ITA 243
18 18 AG2R LA MONDIALE (ALM) FRA 198
19 19 COFIDIS, LE CREDIT EN LIGNE (COF) FRA 182

I think With results in la vuelta cofidis should go over AG2R.

Then we have newly formed teams or teams who we aren't exactly sure who they entirely have.
- Team Geox
- Fly V Australia
-Team Schleck's

Chris White (owner of Fly V) has said that FLY V with new signings should be in the 16 to 21st place bracket.

 

[JRanton]

Chris White (owner of Fly V) has said that FLY V with new signings should be in the 16 to 21st place bracket.

That won't make any difference for guaranteed 2011 GT qualification. And it won't help them in terms of being granted a Pro Tour licence because they need to have more points than Euskatel to give themselves a chance.

 

[Mambo95]

Probably more interesting than the top 17 rankings is who will get the Pro Tour licences for 2011. Without these, it's going to be hard to get into the top 17 next season.

14 teams going for 8 spots. Here's how Cycle Sport magazine in GB rate their chances out of ten:

HTC Columbia - 10
Liquigas - 9
Team Schleck - 9
Astana - 8
Geox - 8
Movistar (ex CdE) - 6
Euskaltel - 5
Francaise des Jeux - 5
BBox Bouygues - 5
Cofidis - 3
BMC - 3
Velocity (ex Milram) - 2
Vacansoliel - 2
Pegasus Sports (Fly V) - 1


If these ratings are close to reality, then I can see BMC stumping up the transfer fee for Cancellara.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Probably more interesting than the top 17 rankings is who will get the Pro Tour licences for 2011. Without these, it's going to be hard to get into the top 17 next season.

14 teams going for 8 spots. Here's how Cycle Sport magazine in GB rate their chances out of ten:

HTC Columbia - 10
Liquigas - 9
Team Schleck - 9
Astana - 8
Geox - 8
Movistar (ex CdE) - 6
Euskaltel - 5
Francaise des Jeux - 5
BBox Bouygues - 5
Cofidis - 3
BMC - 3
Velocity (ex Milram) - 2
Vacansoliel - 2
Pegasus Sports (Fly V) - 1


If these ratings are close to reality, then I can see BMC stumping up the transfer fee for Cancellara.

I doubt these rankings are close to reality.
Some of those ratings are a bit odd. Isn't it done on the rankings from this year which will determine some of the placings for PT licences next year. How is Team Schleck 9 when they are only starting up next year year and a sponsor is unknown? Fly V also has a very big budget so I would imagine their chances are 1 out of 10.

 

[Anonymous]

I doubt these rankings are close to reality.
Some of those ratings are a bit odd. Isn't it done on the rankings from this year which will determine some of the placings for PT licences next year. How is Team Schleck 9 when they are only starting up next year year and a sponsor is unknown? Fly V also has a very big budget so I would imagine their chances are 1 out of 10.

I know your partisan, but honestly i think you are kidding yourself if you think fly-v will get a pro tour spot. Its not just about budget, they have very little european experience, barely any known riders, and i think right now they would be out of their depth on all levels. Teams like vacon that have raced hard week in week out in europe etc are much more likely. Team Schleck have the riders and are taking existing or experienced pro tour management. The right aim for fly-v is trying to get pro continental (im not even convinced they would get that) and get as many invites as they can.

 

[tgsgirl]

I doubt these rankings are close to reality.
Some of those ratings are a bit odd. Isn't it done on the rankings from this year which will determine some of the placings for PT licences next year. How is Team Schleck 9 when they are only starting up next year year and a sponsor is unknown? Fly V also has a very big budget so I would imagine their chances are 1 out of 10.

They have the guy who came second in the tour, the only guy who looks likely to challenge Contador in the near future, experienced staff, a more than decent backbone to their squad* and do you really think guys like Voigt, Fuglsang and Monfort would sign if they didn't have a sponsor?
So far Fly V only has a sponsor, and nothing else.

I think those odds look right. Team Schleck to replace Milram, and apart from that everything stays as it is.

*Were those official signings?

 

[auscyclefan94]

They have the guy who came second in the tour, the only guy who looks likely to challenge Contador in the near future, experienced staff, a more than decent backbone to their squad* and do you really think guys like Voigt, Fuglsang and Monfort would sign if they didn't have a sponsor?
So far Fly V only has a sponsor, and nothing else.

I think those odds look right. Team Schleck to replace Milram, and apart from that everything stays as it is.

*Were those official signings?

No, but I think giving them a 9 is a bit too high. Teams that are in their this year which have been running for more than a year will have a better chance of going PT than them. that does not mean I don't think Schleck team won't go PT.

I know your partisan, but honestly i think you are kidding yourself if you think fly-v will get a pro tour spot. Its not just about budget, they have very little european experience, barely any known riders, and i think right now they would be out of their depth on all levels. Teams like vacon that have raced hard week in week out in europe etc are much more likely. Team Schleck have the riders and are taking existing or experienced pro tour management. The right aim for fly-v is trying to get pro continental (im not even convinced they would get that) and get as many invites as they can.

I don't think Fly V deserve Protour status straight away. i their are teams who are ahead of them in that line. Chris White (owner of team) has said they will definetly be Pro Conti next year. That is a certainty. They have had that many wins this season (yes in smaller races) but they definetly should be pro conti and with their new signings which include some top aussie pros and european pros (according to White) they should be pro Conti and should do well.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

No, but I think giving them a 9 is a bit too high. Teams that are in their this year which have been running for more than a year will have a better chance of going PT than them. that does not mean I don't think Schleck team won't go PT.

In a normal world maybe. But in an UCI controlled world, Team Schleck basically is sure of getting into the PT. Vacansoliel is basically sure they won't get one for the exact same reason. Signing Ricco of course doesn't help there.

 

[auscyclefan94]

In a normal world maybe. But in an UCI controlled world, Team Schleck basically is sure of getting into the PT. Vacansoliel is basically sure they won't get one for the exact same reason. Signing Ricco of course doesn't help there.

I don't think signing ricco will do much to them as the uci don't hate cheats too much if you know what I mean.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I don't think signing ricco will do much to them as the uci don't hate cheats too much if you know what I mean.

I know what you mean, but the UCI hates SOME cheats, and Riccò is one of them. Rasmussen is another. Sevilla is another, and Valverde is another.

Signing Riccò will be problematic for Vacansoleil because unlike Caisse (who will almost certainly sign Valerde back for 2012) they don't have a list of great triumphs in the ProTour to point at to make having them as part of the ProTour essential. Riccò will garner them invites to MSR, Lombardia, Tirreno-Adriatico and the Giro, but it's likely the rest of their season will be similar to this year, only with more of the Italian domestic calendar added for good measure.

 

[ingsve]

I doubt these rankings are close to reality.
Some of those ratings are a bit odd. Isn't it done on the rankings from this year which will determine some of the placings for PT licences next year. How is Team Schleck 9 when they are only starting up next year year and a sponsor is unknown? Fly V also has a very big budget so I would imagine their chances are 1 out of 10.

The sporting side of the criteria is based on the teams riders performances during the last two years so eventhough Team Schlux haven't existed before they will still benefit from what their riders have done. They will have 7 top 10s in the ardennes classics including a LBL win and several top 10s with lots of podiums in top stage races including 2-2-5 in the Tour and that's only counting what the Schleck brothers have done.