Team strategies for Friday?

[Anonymous]

Its definitely the angle:

 

[byu123]

Again, I have never said he was not strong. I have just said he is not strong enough to win. Then again, I also don't think it is ludicrous that Kloden will outlast him.

I have expressed several times my problems with Mr Armstrong and none of is has to do with thinking he is not a gifted cyclist.

Well looks like we agree on this then. I agree that if AC is totally unleashed, then the "old guy" won't hang with him, but neither will anyone else (except maybe A.Schleck). However, if Astana plays the smart safe card and decide to have all 4 ride wheels for as long as possible while marking moves of everyone else . . . then I think the "old guy" hangs in there . . . Canchellara is dropped and "you know who" may be in yellow.

All depends on whether AC gets the unfettered green light or not. Seems as though the smart play given the gaps is for all four to ride wheels for as long as possible . . . even to the top.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Lance, bob roll, and Carmicheal have all stated that lance is lighter then he was in any of his previous tour attempts.

Well, that's it then. We all know what that means.

 

[byu123]

Well, that's it then. We all know what that means.

How much difference in your power/weight ratio on a TDF climb does a body weight of 157 vs 162 make??? It makes a difference obviously but someone professional here give some context to how much of a difference?? I know its impossible to determine for sure but speculate. How much is the weight loss offset by power loss as a result? etc.

 

[Publicus]

How much difference in your power/weight ratio on a TDF climb does a body weight of 157 vs 162 make??? It makes a difference obviously but someone professional here give some context to how much of a difference?? I know its impossible to determine for sure but speculate. How much is the weight loss offset by power loss as a result? etc.

I don't have the answer, but where are you getting those figures? Or are they guesstimates?

 

[richwagmn]

Well looks like we agree on this then. I agree that if AC is totally unleashed, then the "old guy" won't hang with him, but neither will anyone else (except maybe A.Schleck). However, if Astana plays the smart safe card and decide to have all 4 ride wheels for as long as possible while marking moves of everyone else . . . then I think the "old guy" hangs in there . . . Canchellara is dropped and "you know who" may be in yellow.

All depends on whether AC gets the unfettered green light or not. Seems as though the smart play given the gaps is for all four to ride wheels for as long as possible . . . even to the top.

I don't see how you can deny one of the strongest climbers in the world the opportunity to attach on an uphill finish? I think AC has free reign.

 

[davestoller]

How much difference in your power/weight ratio on a TDF climb does a body weight of 157 vs 162 make??? It makes a difference obviously but someone professional here give some context to how much of a difference?? I know its impossible to determine for sure but speculate. How much is the weight loss offset by power loss as a result? etc.

Lance is saying he is the lightest he has even been at the start of the TdF.
5 pounds is a LOT of difference.
It is the difference between staying with a rider or group or not.
157 lbs
71.4 kg.
Lets say for convenience that Lance's ower at threshold is 400 watts.

5.6 watts per kg

versus 5.47 watts per kg at the higher weight.
If he stayed at 162 pounds and wanter to reach the same watts per kg as the lighter weight afforded, he would have to increase power by 15 watts.

15 watts is a lot.
If you are around 400 watts thats a 4% bump.

 

[byu123]

I don't have the answer, but where are you getting those figures? Or are they guesstimates?

He was 160-161 for most of the 7 tours. And I read somewhere recently that he said he "weighed less" than then and saw another article that he was 157. Too lazy to do the Google hunt to find them. Not guesstimates but don't have the links handy.

 

[byu123]

Lance is saying he is the lightest he has even been at the start of the TdF.
5 pounds is a LOT of difference.
It is the difference between staying with a rider or group or not.
157 lbs
71.4 kg.
Lets say for convenience that Lance's ower at threshold is 400 watts.

5.6 watts per kg

versus 5.47 watts per kg at the higher weight.
If he stayed at 162 pounds and wanter to reach the same watts per kg as the lighter weight afforded, he would have to increase power by 15 watts.

15 watts is a lot.
If you are around 400 watts thats a 4% bump.

Assuming all that is true and assuming his power output is equal to when he won (per his coach Carmichael it is). Then theoretically (emphasis on this word) he should be 4% better climber now than then. Even if weight, power outpuet, etc. are equal or better now than then the 3 years older factor is an intangible that is hard to calculate. Plus, per Carmichael they pursued a "train high, train low" regimen that was different from any of the previous years (more altitude training in 2009).

I guess the million dollar question is . . . . Is a rider that is 104% of the 99-05 Armstrong as good as the 100% Contador in 2009? Guess we don't have long for that answer.

BTW . . . if forced to bet the farm . . . I'd still be on Contador . . . reluctantly.

 

[Cobblestones]

How much difference in your power/weight ratio on a TDF climb does a body weight of 157 vs 162 make??? It makes a difference obviously but someone professional here give some context to how much of a difference?? I know its impossible to determine for sure but speculate. How much is the weight loss offset by power loss as a result? etc.

Assuming same power/weight for both, but different weight, then the 3% difference in weight gives 3% more power (in favor of the heavy rider).

Assume the same power irrespective of weight, than of course both have the same power.

Now, this is not the end of the story, because power does not equal speed. If you neglect drag effects on a steep climb, then power is proportional to mass*speed (upwards). (With drag, there's another term proportional to speed squared and things get complicated because just to know that it's proportional isn't enough, you'd need to know the precise coefficients as well.)

Anyway, if we neglect the drag, then same power (3% difference in mass) translates to 3% more speed (in favor of the lighter rider), same power/weight (mass is irrelevant then**) means same speed for both. That's of course all very rough, back of the envelope.

Now, on the flat, power is simply proportional to drag coefficient and speed squared (no incline). Assuming equal drag coefficient, a 3% difference in power makes a 1.5% difference in speed. Equal power translates to equal speeds. Assuming same power output, the mass of the rider is irrelevant on the flat. Assuming same power/weight, the heavy rider has the 1.5% speed advantage.

That's in a nutshell, the difference between flat stages and climbing.

ETA: ** That's why 'Equipe calculates 'normalized' power output for a standard 70 kg rider on climbs.

ETA (2) The truth is in between 'equal power' and 'equal power/mass', the conclusions remain the same. Lighter riders get a relatively bigger advantage on the climbs than heavier riders get on the flat (TT). Hence a TT guy on the light side is more believable than a heavy climber.

TFF, in your photo, Lance looks like Meatloaf compared to Contador.

 

[Threshold]

LOL Meatloaf...

Geez in that pic LA does look like a cage fighter compared to AC.

LA did do a lot of gym work in his Star Banging time off the bike... had to buff up a bit for the Olsens etc I guess.

It has to be said that he does look a lot more solid in his arms and upper body than his winning years, so if he weighs less than before it must be muscle redistribution... not good.

Also it is a known scientific fact that the effects of drag make a difference down to very low speeds ie climbing speeds on all but the steepest slopes, ergo the long drags they face now.
LA is known to have bad drag numbers in TT postion and with that chest and shoulders he would push a lot more air than AC
Even small weight differences make a measurable time advantage over long/steep climbs there is a lot of test data available.

Looking at AC with that puny light frame and his TT speed I cant see LA staying with him for very long at all.
To finish if anyone thinks LA is anything like his best years you are sadly wrong...I also believe AC would have been destroyed by the LA of old.

That said LA is the master of deception... I hope he can hang with AC to keep it interesting because if he can not then it will get boring.

The fact there are so many LA posts/threads really contradicts all the ppl saying "FEK off Lance"!!!
We should be thankful LA is in this tour otherwise it would be the very predictable "Contador Show"

 

[Anonymous]

TFF, in your photo, Lance looks like Meatloaf compared to Contador.

Yea, I believe the whole "Lance is lighter" PR campaign is for a specific reason...same tune, different dance.

 

[byu123]

Yea, I believe the whole "Lance is lighter" PR campaign is for a specific reason...same tune, different dance.

Yeah part of his problem is that he was doing this during retirement as part of his "chick chasing campaign" . . . great for impressing Ashley Olsen, Kate Hudson, Anna Hansen, and the like . . . not good for going up mountains fast on a bike.

 

[blitzracer]

contador wins LA in the jersey

LA is ready to do battle. The guy knows watts.. he knows AC's watts. that is why he came back. If he knew that AC climbed at 7 to kilo and he was at 6.5 he wouldn't be talking so confident. He knows his weight and he knows what AC can do. No doubt he can't hang with AC when he attacks... but I think he can climb at the same pace minus the gap. Just like Pantani. AC didn't EXACTLY kill everyone on the climbs a few tours ago. I still remember a few riders hanging with him. If lance knew he didn't have a chance .....he would be humble. I think he knows he can hang. I won't say he will drop AC.. but I bet he is close. If he is close... then no one else will even be in the ball park. The 2 of them will slaughter everyone. Lets not forget ALP D Time trial the guy killed everyone. I won't bet against LA.... I love bike racers... he is proven.... AC is a complete bad ***.... Proven also....


For me it would be bigger for cancer patients if Lance wins. If I was sitting in a Hospital on chemo... and Lance won... that would be rad. This is bigger than sport. It doesn't matter how he wins. If he has to pay off Contador..... it would be the best 20 million dollars ever spent. I will give AC $20 bucks to not beat lance.
It will raise hundreds of millions if he wins. I don't even care about his ego. I don't know how he couldn't have one. It is easy for me to be humble.... I suck. It is easy for us to give him crap... none of us ride 5 hours a day and have 5% of the talent he has. Most of us have expensive bikes and have barely won a real bike race. Your local wednesday ride doesn't count. We are all the tallest miget talking crap about a rider who has done things on a bike that might never be repeated. Even if repeated ......it will be by another legend ....not one of us.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Evans, Sastre, Menchov and Schleck Bros have to attack straight away and continually if they are going to get time back on AStana. Everyone must isolate AC and attack him hard and continually. Other teams must collabarate to get rid of Astana. Should be some intersting racing.

 

[The GCW]

The program

The way it worked for Lance in the past is the way it's going to work for Astana on stage 7 and the other mountain stages.

The team is going to set the tempo high in the front and stay there.

Contador and / or Armstrong is going to be delivered to the base of the climb and will be given better team support as long as possible.

The rest of the story is the only question.

 

[rickibobbi]

Contador was 24 when he won, and wasn't a favorite, the need to think of LA as "da bears" like the old saturday night cartoon is not unexpected, (who would win, Godzilla or the front line of da bears..........DA BEARS!) AC is the real deal, he's coming into the prime TDF years, and most probably if he was racing against LA heads up, during LA's prime, would have taken it to him very hard, particularly given his way improved time trial skills. Its hard to say what the outcome would be but now, its pretty clear that Astana must have paid AC a great deal of money to stick around while LA is on the team. This is now the era of AC, like it was LA before and Indurain before that, Lemond then Hinault, etc.