The 2012 CQ Ranking Manager Game

[The Hitch]

You're right. Especially since will10 brought up the winner's score last year.

But this is what my ESTIMATIONS concluded, I'll show you...

LAST NAME / FIRST NAME / EXPECTATION / PRICE / WORST CASE

KREUZIGER Roman 1000 528 450
BRESCHEL Matti 900 98 300
ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor 850 634 500
BOONEN Tom 850 502 300
SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon 800 439 350
BOOM Lars 750 609 550
BRAJKOVIC Janez 750 562 500
VELITS Peter 750 205 250
DI LUCA Danilo 700 232 300
CIOLEK Gerald 650 365 200
DE GENDT Thomas 650 485 450
PHINNEY Taylor 550 344 300
POZZATO Filippo 500 301 250
ROGERS Michael 500 137 300
STEEGMANS Gert 500 125 100
DAVIS Allan 450 118 100
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis 450 190 100
KEUKELEIRE Jens 450 178 100
PORTE Richie 450 261 250
BERTAGNOLLI Leonardo 400 59 40
BLYTHE Adam 400 173 150
SLAGTER Tom Jelte 250 41 30
DEVOLDER Stijn 350 145 100
MAASKANT Martijn 350 47 30
MASCIARELLI Francesco 350 127 50
STETINA Peter 350 162 150
VANMARCKE Sep 350 128 100
BOECKMANS Kris 300 86 50
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben 300 81 50
SICARD Romain 300 0 50
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 250 60 50
VAUGRENARD Benoît 250 11 50
KASHECHKIN Andrey 200 28 50

I'm no longer confident about DI LUCA Danilo's forecast, BOOM Lars was always an iffy one...

Why did you pick boom for 600 if you only think he can improve his score only by 150.

 

[bicing]

How did you determine a worst case scenario score of 15000pts if not from the worst case scores of each rider? Where do the other 8400pts come from?

I already told you, my spreadsheet failed.

Why did you pick boom for 600 if you only think he can improve his score only by 150.

Low risk PLUS I ran out of riders I was confident could increase by more than 150 with such small risk factor. There were riders I thought could make big gains like Farrar and Froome but when I assessed their worst casesa as 800 and 400 respoectively, this was too risky given their prices of 953 and 779 respectively.

 

[Ruby United]

Chichichi or whatever his name is has two wins in two days? Bite me!

Chicchi actually performed very well last year and he is very promising. I considered picking him, (also, if Boonens leading him out, as he is faster then boonen, it shows how good he already is!)

 

[Froome19]

Chicchi actually performed very well last year and he is very promising. I considered picking him, (also, if Boonens leading him out, as he is faster then boonen, it shows how good he already is!)

as has been said before just because he is faster in january doesn't prove anything, especially given his usual trends to show form in the winter. Chances are he just trains very hard in the off season and is on better fitness than any of the other riders and much better fitness than boonen

 

[greenedge]

directvelo.com is good for startlist announcements in some of the smaller races, currently has etolie de besseges and tour of med

http://www.directvelo.com/actualite/16855-etoile-de-besseges-les-engages.html

http://www.directvelo.com/actualite/16929-tour-mediterraneen-les-engages.html

I have Poels, Pinot and Quintana in the latter and will be looking for Poels and Pinot to demonstate they're improved from last year's 3rd and 17th

Anyone who has Dan Martin in the Tour-Mediterranean i think will get a lot of points.

 

[greenedge]

I think Lars Boom, Brajkovic, Porte, Phinney, Ciolek & Di Luca will not make a profit for you and some of your other picks are questionable. No way will you make near 15,000.

Burghardt definetly has the potential to go well in at least one cobbled classic which would make 80+ for him. Iglinskiy is a very good pick and is again a talented classics rider who has potential to do well in a lot of different classics races. Velits has made above 70 on numerous other years and again will have more chances than at HTC. Like Velits, Wyss has doubled his score in the past and seems to pick up the odd top 10. If he doesn't make a profit for me it is not a big loss.

I agree with the Burghardt pick that he could go well. He did win G-W and a stage at the TDF. However he might have to work for other leaders. I have to agree with the Inglinsky pick as i chose him. The other two are risky but they could potentially double their scores and are no big loss.

I moved down places ( from 14th ) to 51. I am not happy.

I am happy that Boonen showed himself in a sprint and Ciolek gained some early points.

I hope you are wrong about; Brajkovic, Porte and Ciolek.

 

[Eric8-A]

If Rogers decides to do Tour, that'll be great. I thought he gave up on three week races. Even if he's in support of Wiggo, I can still see him land in the top 25 or so given the amount of TT kilometers.

 

[skidmark]

I agree with the Burghardt pick that he could go well. He did win G-W and a stage at the TDF. However he might have to work for other leaders. I have to agree with the Inglinsky pick as i chose him. The other two are risky but they could potentially double their scores and are no big loss.

I moved down places ( from 14th ) to 51. I am not happy.

I am happy that Boonen showed himself in a sprint and Ciolek gained some early points.

I hope you are wrong about; Brajkovic, Porte and Ciolek.

I dunno, I think ACF's assessment of your team is too pessimistic. He's saying he expects Phinney to not make as many as 344 points? That's crazy; I'd be shocked if he didn't have a major injury and got less than 500. I don't think Brajkovic is going to take over the world or anything, but an improvement of 100-400 points seems the most likely course... Boom is kind of iffy, and Ciolek is always a disappointment (I learned that when I picked him last year), but the others mentioned will for sure improve their score barring injury. Porte is already 20% there or so.

On the other hand, although someone like Burghardt could pick up a lucky win and a couple of hundred points, that's a gamble and it's not like he's going to go higher than that. I think your team will be alright.

 

[Eric8-A]

Burghardt will surely break even. But I opted not to choose him because BMC will surely be looking out more for Hushovd, Gilbert, and Ballan.

 

[just some guy]

Burghardt will surely break even. But I opted not to choose him because BMC will surely be looking out more for Hushovd, Gilbert, and Ballan.

And the letter childern

Gva and tjvg

Marcus is a work horse

 

[auscyclefan94]

I dunno, I think ACF's assessment of your team is too pessimistic. He's saying he expects Phinney to not make as many as 344 points? That's crazy; I'd be shocked if he didn't have a major injury and got less than 500. I don't think Brajkovic is going to take over the world or anything, but an improvement of 100-400 points seems the most likely course... Boom is kind of iffy, and Ciolek is always a disappointment (I learned that when I picked him last year), but the others mentioned will for sure improve their score barring injury. Porte is already 20% there or so.

On the other hand, although someone like Burghardt could pick up a lucky win and a couple of hundred points, that's a gamble and it's not like he's going to go higher than that. I think your team will be alright.

It was of Bicing's team. I am sceptical about how well Phinney will do looking at BMC and his price. Brajkovic won't gain many points if any and I really do question his quality as a top stage racer that he has been talked up to be. Boom rides for Rabobank and he could do well in some smaller classics and the odd short ITT at best but again don't see him as a big point gainer.

 

[gustienordic]

Bet he rides the tour a captain on the road and may dbl up in Spain

I don't think Sky's lineup for the Tour will include him...

I hope he rides all the small stage races and does well in those

 

[greenedge]

Brajkovic won't gain many points if any and I really do question his quality as a top stage racer that he has been talked up to be. Boom rides for Rabobank and he could do well in some smaller classics and the odd short ITT at best but again don't see him as a big point gainer.

Wasn't Brajkovic sick last year though??? Also Boom is still young ( if he can continue how he is at stage races like the ToB he could go well ), he does have classic potential. I do agree however that he is not the long ITT specialist that many think him to be.

 

[greenedge]

I did some research on this and the result is very surprising as the leader at this point last year had almost double the amount of points that just some guy has now (of course it helped that microdose's team was all Australian ). The only difference is that last year Tour San Luis was ridden simultaneously with TDU so the results from this race was included in last years update 2 (which is this years update 3).

Last years top 10 at this point (including San Luis points):

1. (1) microdose - 1718
2. (6) Kevin Rudd's Hairdryer - 1368
3. (2) Pcutter - 1271
4. (15) auto de fé - 1140
5. (4) Spider1964 - 1088
6. (20) Bicing - 896
7. (13) Moondance - 887
8. (57) lancaster - 850
9. (8) LukeSchmid - 849
10. (3) trotters aotearoa - 798

For fun I thought I would see where those "early leaders" ended up in the final update:

microdose: 70th
Kevin Rudd's Hairdryer: 36th
Pcutter: 22nd
auto de fé: 58th
Spider1964: 41st
Bicing: 42nd
Moondance: 65th
lancaster: 72nd
LukeSchmid: 8th
trotters aotearoa: 67th

Thx for that.

Luke/ PC went well though.

 

[ingsve]

Brajkovic won't gain many points if any and I really do question his quality as a top stage racer that he has been talked up to be.

Wasn't Brajkovic sick last year though???

Yes, when Brajkovic came to Astana they did a complete health check like they always do and they found out that Brajkovic had been suffering from mononucleosis for the previous 12+ months or something like that. He's supposedly healthy again now so we should really give him the chance to show what he can do now before dismissing him.

What I'm wondering is what type of incompetent doctors Radioshack had.

 

[mc_mountain]

Anyone know anything about the race programme of Selig @ Katusha. Done a quick search but nothing springs out.

 

[bicing]

Yes, when Brajkovic came to Astana they did a complete health check like they always do and they found out that Brajkovic had been suffering from mononucleosis for the previous 12+ months or something like that. He's supposedly healthy again now so we should really give him the chance to show what he can do now before dismissing him.

He must have been kssing Michael Rogers.

 

[skidmark]

It was of Bicing's team. I am sceptical about how well Phinney will do looking at BMC and his price. Brajkovic won't gain many points if any and I really do question his quality as a top stage racer that he has been talked up to be. Boom rides for Rabobank and he could do well in some smaller classics and the odd short ITT at best but again don't see him as a big point gainer.

Right, bcings team, sorry. Still, although I agree with your assesments and caution of Brajkovic and Boom (and Ciolek), you did say that they wouldn't gain him any points, meaning they'd get less than last year. There's a difference between that and 'not a big point gainer'. If I'm just misunderstanding, then maybe I agree. Phinney though, I am thinking there's a good chance he doubles his points. Excellent engine, great TTer, learning how to race finally, and can sprint too. He won't win Flanders or Roubaix or anything like that (esp. with the lineup BMC have), but I could easily see him getting in a small break at a semi-classic and winning the sprint from there (even like EBH at G-W in 2009).

 

[will10]

I think there's too many chiefs at BMC for Phinney to get many chances of his own, I considered him but suspect he'll have another season working for leaders.

 

[mc_mountain]

I think there's too many chiefs at BMC for Phinney to get many chances of his own, I considered him but suspect he'll have another season working for leaders.

Phinney is on my team this year mainly as he was on my team last year and didn't quite pay off as well as he could have done. I didnt want him to do well this year and my team not get the points. Anyway I thought he was good value at 217, he's not that more expensive at 344, but has proved he can compete in the pro ranks, and has his undertraining/overtraining out of his system.

I wouldn't be surprised if he has 600-850 points by the end of the year, and should atleast repeat his 2011 score unless misfortune befalls him, even in a team as stacked as BMC 2012.

 

[greenedge]

What I'm wondering is what type of incompetent doctors Radioshack had.

Even after all of JB's faith in him ( that we all thought was fruitless )

 

[greenedge]

I wouldn't be surprised if he has 600-850 points by the end of the year, and should atleast repeat his 2011 score unless misfortune befalls him, even in a team as stacked as BMC 2012.

If he develops more ITT wise he can easily rack up those points.

 

[Kevin Rudd's Hairdryer]

Yes, when Brajkovic came to Astana they did a complete health check like they always do and they found out that Brajkovic had been suffering from mononucleosis for the previous 12+ months or something like that. He's supposedly healthy again now so we should really give him the chance to show what he can do now before dismissing him.

What I'm wondering is what type of incompetent doctors Radioshack had.

The thing with mono, or glandular fever as it is also known, is that it can reoccur when the body is stressed. So hard training could result in him getting sick again at any time. That's why I left him out of my team. I was tempted though as he has potential. He may be OK though as Michael Rogers had it too and he's is going well at the mo.

 

[just some guy]

Got a couple riding tomorrow

http://www.directvelo.com/actualite/16895-grand-prix-la-marseillaise-les-engages.html

Thibaut PINOT
Leif HOSTE

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Got a couple riding tomorrow

http://www.directvelo.com/actualite/16895-grand-prix-la-marseillaise-les-engages.html

Thibaut PINOT
Leif HOSTE

Go Pinot
I've got him and Elissonde.