Okay, since I'm sick in bed and have time, and since a few people mentioned in the wrap-up of last years' thread that since I did well last year they'd be interested in hearing me explain some picks, I'm gonna do it in gory detail (enough detail for more than one post, according to CN's character limit - I didn't even know there was one). Of course, I probably would anyway, i have for the past 2 years as well. I guess I just like writing about this stuff.
Here's my team, top to bottom:
Philippe Gilbert - 1086:
most expensive pick I've ever had, but definitely far from the riskiest. While I don't think he'll scale the heights of 2011 and triple that, even on an off year he should do better than this year of awfulness. He's just such a brilliant rider, and world champion to boot, and he always has among the heaviest race schedules in the peloton, and he's always a threat in every race, etc etc. A no - brainer.
(sidenote on this level - I see a lot of people picked Canc and Cavendish - I was tempted to pick Canc, but am hesitant to put too much in one rider - hard enough to pick Gilbert. Plus, Canc would have had a MONSTER year sans crashes, but as it stood his year was okay with the TDF points. I don't see him getting more than 14-1600, but I will cheer for him every race regardless. Cav I didn't consider at all, don't see how he can make it worthwhile)
Tyler Farrar - 521:
I don't really like Tyler Farrar. But I do believe that he's a better sprinter than he showed this year. Hell, he was one of the last cuts off my team last year at 952 or whatever, I can't overlook him at 521. I feel like he had some crashes and bad luck, and maybe he's past his magic years as a sprinter despite being still young, but he's THE sprinter in Garmin and he'll get chances at the GTs, and he'll clock up points unless he crashes even more.
Pippo Pozzatto - 460:
One of the last additions to the team, I hemmed and hawed about whether he'd be able to reach his previous heights. He's still got wonderful form on the cobbles, and sticking with an Italian team should give him a few smaller Italian races to grab some points. Again, don't like the guy, but he's a fighter and I wouldn't be surprised to see him reach 8-900 again.
Thibaut Pinot - 442:
Just found out he has tendonitis, but that really doesn't sound too serious (unless it turns into a Sicard type thing). His talent is obvious, and last year I didn't pick him because in 2011 he got six hundred something points from mostly smaller races, and I knew as he improved at bigger races he'd get more refined opportunities. So, while his CQ ranking in 2012 is lower than 2011, 10th at the Tour is different than top 5 in Turkey or Tre Valli or wherever (going by memory here). I'm hoping he can get some higher results in the one-weeks and place a bit higher in a climb-happy Tour to score at least 800.
Andrea Guardini - 404:
Astana has a recent history of not knowing what to do with some of their incoming talent, but I'm hoping that Guardini gets tons of chances as a sprinter. With two years seasoning, he could take on anyone anytime. I'm just hoping that the times where that Guardini shows up are more frequent. His Giro win in the latter days of his first GT convinced me more than anything.
Wilco Kelderman - 401:
Picked him 2 years in a row now. Trying to predict the progress of Dutch talent in the Rabo system is a nightmare. Add to that Kelderman's crash-reputation with the cynical dutch forumites around here, and he may be a gamble. But his skillset is broad enough (with good TT, climbing, and even sprint) that I feel like his progress should be reflected in his CQ score with plenty of opportunities throughout the year.
JJ Rojas - 366:
Another guy I don't love (especially since I think Libertine mentioned he's a Francoite!) but gotta respect his tactical nous and sheer audacity. He knows how to get on the right wheel and propel his inferior sprinting ability to podium finishes. 2012 was not good for him, but he's still Movistar's primary sprinter and should double in 2013 at least.
Michael Matthews - 359:
Remember when he beat Degenkolb and Phinney in the U23 worlds? That's the Matthews I want, as good as those 2 dudes. Okay, maybe he's not developed into as versatile a sprinter as Deg or a rider as Phinney (who was never primarily a sprinter obviously), but he should be in the 800-1000 range, even on a sprint-heavy GreenEdge.
Matti Breschel - 329:
Fingers crossed. Riis, work your magic!
Davide Rebellin - 276:
Okay, he's 42. Okay, you may not like his tax-related or clinic-related practices. But seriously, the guy is one of the most consistently great competitors in the history of cycling. Not always good enough to win the sprint, but often enough to place high, and always willing to follow or start a move (and often the right one), and more importantly, ALWAYS willing to do what it takes to try to place as high as possible, the guy is like a Poulidor or Zoetemelk with slightly less glittering palmares. 2011 - seriously, 889 on a continental team you started with in April?!? That's UNHEARD of. This year, doesn't start until like December (exaggeration), with Meridia-Kamen or whatever who get barely any invites, and gets 276 competing to the end in stuff like the Hellas Tour. Yeesh. A ride with ProConti will do him worlds of good, especially in that handful of Polish 2.1 races that no other real teams ride except CCC. Seriously, the guy's still good enough to top 5 Pologne, I'd lay money on it. One of the easiest picks for me.
Rohan Dennis - 271:
Expensive for a neo-pro, yes. But what do top neo-pros get? Last year it was Henao (doesn't really count) and Moser around 1000, then Demare and Quintana etc around 7-800. Totally worth it if he gets that. And why shouldn't he? Vaughters described him as a 'game-changer'. And yes, Willunga Hill ain't the Alpe D'Huez, but he has already gone toe-to-toe with pros and done just fine. His wide acclaim as a time-triallist really just seems like an insurance policy for a rider like this - there are always small races that you can do well on the TT and place highly (hello 2012 Durbridge). Not to mention his climbing. I expect big things.
Bob Jungels - 233:
One of the last picks I put on after hemming and hawing. On a big team where he won't necessarily get a huge chance in smaller races (unlike French or Italian teams), but still a solid rider with a great TT at times and some good punchiness in small groups and breakaways. The 9th place in the HC Tour of Luxembourg was the thing I kept coming back to to convince me he could make it in the pros.
Joe Dombrowski - 194:
Duh. Did you see him last year? Sure he's on mega-loaded Sky, but they're also excited about him so I'm sure they'll put him in some varied situations. And the situations he's in where he has his own opportunities, I'm sure he'll take advantage.
Thomas Dekker - 186:
Only on my team because I had 32 riders I liked and 207 points left, and he was the best rider around that point range of the riders I had earlier considered and discarded (I almost took Garzelli before realizing that taking someone who's trying to rejuvenate their career might be better than someone who's winding it down). We'll see how it goes, but I know he wants to continue improving so even if he doesn't get back to clinic Dekker levels, I'm confident he'll do better than last year.
Geraint Thomas - 181:
He spent most of his year focusing on track, and missed where he showed the most promise in 2011, which was the classics. Doesn't hurt that he's a great tt rider, he should be good for 5-600? More?
Thomas Lofkvist - 170:
A bit of a leap of faith, but he's still young, and he was clearly given up on by Sky, who recruited him as a leader and then didn't need him anymore by last year. But he's still good in the short stage races, and with little competition for leadership at Iam, I can see him getting back up to decent (500 point) level.
Fabio Aru - 162:
The neo-pros I already have listed are impressive, but I almost expect more out of Aru than any of them. Dude's ready for the pros. I wonder where Astana will give him chances, but he's the type of rider who tends to make his own chances.
Matteo Trentin - 158:
One of the last additions, hesitated due to his being a helper on a mega-team. But he was an incredibly impressive helper last year, and obviously would've scored over 100 more points if it weren't for that crazy crash in the final corner of MSR. The fact that he could last the distance of 290k or whatever as a neo-pro, and be in the group ahead of uber-Boonen of last year, gives me confidence.
Enrico Battaglin - 152:
I was actually surprised last year that he took his time to adapt to the pros, he looked among the most ready. There seems to be a watershed with young Italian talent used to success, with some riders flying onto the pro success and others never living up to the hype and seemingly faltering due to lack of confidence. I am wary of Battaglin ending up in the latter, but still think he'll be part of the former.
Steele von Hoff - 142:
His results were too consistent to ignore, and although Garmin has a few 'second-tier' sprinters behind Farrar, he should get opportunities and it's not like he's 20 years old - he's been solid on the domestic scene, and should be weathered enough to be solid at the pro level.