I was kind of hoping Betancur could already show us he's 'improved' a lot since last year, and at least let show himself. But atm i already value Ulissi a lot higher then Betancur, sad i didn't pick him instead.
- Oct 23, 2011
- 3,846
- 2
- 0
NairoQ said:
C'mon it's his first race and it's January. Last year he lost 13 minutes on this climb and he still got wins including PN when he came to Europe. This year he only lost 5 minutes.
I mean, who knows what Betancur will do, but today's performance is in no way indicative of whether or not he will have a good season. If he comes into Europe with a half decent shape and continues building and losing weight till the Giro - and considering he won't go back to Colombia it's not all that unlikely - he'll be a good pick in my opinion. It only huts that he doesn't do the Ardennes.
I told that to myself too, but then again I think it would be a lot more satisfying to see him at least try to get in front and ride for the prizes. Besides, if he has a season like last year I will consider him a bad pick, because I hope he can get a lot more.
I know this is not an indicator for the rest of the season, but a small sign that it's not just words when he talks about being motivated was what I hoped for. It's not to hard to imagine he could be more motivated when riding a nearly 'home-game'.
I picked Betancur in the hope he could get a year in which he displays his talent and is eager to win, not to scratch some points together and get 6-700, because that's not to difficult for him, i think. It's just the fact that he doesn't seem to care to much anymore, and while he says he's taking a new start this year I at least expected him to try to hang on.
I know this is not an indicator for the rest of the season, but a small sign that it's not just words when he talks about being motivated was what I hoped for. It's not to hard to imagine he could be more motivated when riding a nearly 'home-game'.
Maaaaaaaarten said:
I picked Betancur in the hope he could get a year in which he displays his talent and is eager to win, not to scratch some points together and get 6-700, because that's not to difficult for him, i think. It's just the fact that he doesn't seem to care to much anymore, and while he says he's taking a new start this year I at least expected him to try to hang on.
Thanks for the update.
I guess my high hopes for TDU points are over with Cam Meyer and Durbo both turned into breakaway riders and Flakemore crashed out and broke his collarbone
At least Anton is showing some signs of life at San Luis.
I guess my high hopes for TDU points are over with Cam Meyer and Durbo both turned into breakaway riders and Flakemore crashed out and broke his collarbone
At least Anton is showing some signs of life at San Luis.
- Oct 23, 2011
- 3,846
- 2
- 0
NairoQ said:
The difference with last year is that he will continue racing longer this spring. If he rides like last year and continues building form up to a good Giro, I can see him getting 1000 points or something. The year where he had 900 points he sucked in San Luis, sucked in Catalunya, did okay in Pais Vasco then did good Ardennes and Giro and then he went back to Colombia and did nothing in the second part of his season. This year we will do the same except no Ardennes and with an extra TA before Catalunya. No Ardennes is what's the problem for me. If he would do Ardennes I'm quite confident that he would get ~1000 points even he has the level and build up of last two years.
But hey, it can all go down too. Everybody knew Betancur was a risky pick.
Netserk said:More than 20 participants scored, so I can't see why it shouldn't count. This was a flat sprint stage that didn't matter (much) GC-wise, but a stage win is still a stage win
Yup, sorry I should have noted that in the update - I'm gonna give updated green jersey standings separately this week, but am gonna integrate them into the main update in future weeks, once I have more than a minute or two to spend on the spreadsheet. Or actually, I'm toying with giving a separate green jersey update just to have something else to talk about, so it's not all at once. Any preferences?
Either way, I'm just starting a new job and new school program so I'm a bit swamped, so pardon if I'm a bit off my game (sloppily edited spreadsheets, non-explained lack of updates on the points). I am excited about this game but have been a bit distracted.
Weekly points competition update!
So this was a quiet week in terms of actual CQ points, but the 'green jersey' portion of this game gives equal points every week. So Ferminal is rewarded for picking 2 quite unique riders by getting the full 45 points, with his 73 CQ points. Hitch and search, tied for 2nd, split the difference between 2nd (35) and 3rd (30) by each getting 32.5 points. DJ Sprtsch and Popchu get 26 and 22 points respectively, and everyone else from 6th to 21st split the remainder of the points equally - this works out to 6.875 points per team (I have decided to not round to the nearest point with the exception being that 1 point is the lowest a team can get. Cumulative points will be rounded to the nearest point for reporting purposes, but fractions of a point will still be tracked in the spreadsheet calculation.)
Full points totals after 2 weeks:
Rank Team Points
1 Kjellus 47
1 ingsve 47
3 Ferminal 45
4 The Hitch 33
4 search 33
6 Lortnoc 30
7 DJ Sprtsch 26
7 trackstand 26
9 Popchu 23
10 Object 22
11 ItalianGigolo 20
12 Ruvu75 19
12 Multispeed 19
12 MADRAZO 19
15 PeterB 18
16 Geraint Too Fast 16
17 Total Package 7
17 just some guy 7
19 topprak 7
19 the_sceptic 7
19 Schleckamagurky 7
19 Ruudz0r 7
19 nuvolablu 7
19 knallertjeblaf 7
19 hilltopfinisher 7
19 freshman 7
19 fauniera 7
19 CraZyCaLL 7
19 Ceramiche_Cauz 7
30 Wallenquist 1
30 merengues 1
30 martybart 1
30 Kazistuta 1
30 Hugo Koblet 1
30 Cykeltyven 1
30 *Falze* 1
So this was a quiet week in terms of actual CQ points, but the 'green jersey' portion of this game gives equal points every week. So Ferminal is rewarded for picking 2 quite unique riders by getting the full 45 points, with his 73 CQ points. Hitch and search, tied for 2nd, split the difference between 2nd (35) and 3rd (30) by each getting 32.5 points. DJ Sprtsch and Popchu get 26 and 22 points respectively, and everyone else from 6th to 21st split the remainder of the points equally - this works out to 6.875 points per team (I have decided to not round to the nearest point with the exception being that 1 point is the lowest a team can get. Cumulative points will be rounded to the nearest point for reporting purposes, but fractions of a point will still be tracked in the spreadsheet calculation.)
Full points totals after 2 weeks:
Rank Team Points
1 Kjellus 47
1 ingsve 47
3 Ferminal 45
4 The Hitch 33
4 search 33
6 Lortnoc 30
7 DJ Sprtsch 26
7 trackstand 26
9 Popchu 23
10 Object 22
11 ItalianGigolo 20
12 Ruvu75 19
12 Multispeed 19
12 MADRAZO 19
15 PeterB 18
16 Geraint Too Fast 16
17 Total Package 7
17 just some guy 7
19 topprak 7
19 the_sceptic 7
19 Schleckamagurky 7
19 Ruudz0r 7
19 nuvolablu 7
19 knallertjeblaf 7
19 hilltopfinisher 7
19 freshman 7
19 fauniera 7
19 CraZyCaLL 7
19 Ceramiche_Cauz 7
30 Wallenquist 1
30 merengues 1
30 martybart 1
30 Kazistuta 1
30 Hugo Koblet 1
30 Cykeltyven 1
30 *Falze* 1
- Jul 5, 2011
- 3,348
- 1
- 13,480
- Aug 3, 2009
- 1,562
- 0
- 0
Does not look so bad this week, Sepulveda up there in Argentina and Dennis bossing TDU, throw in some points by the Manxman and I will have something to look forward to in the next update
The recent talk about Betancur on this thread, who is the only one of the 12 most popular riders I don't have on my team, combined with the success (so far) of Rohan Dennis, my most unique pick over 200 points (16 teams have him), has made me think about mid-level picks. I spilled a bunch of thoughts a few weeks ago about the over 1000-point picks, and my reasoning for choosing Sagan and Rodriguez (basically, high level consistency year-round).
Because of picking those two expensive guys, my spots for 'mid-level' picks (something I'd think of as a rider between 300-600ish points) were really sparse compared to previous years, so when I was putting together my team and decided to go for the expensive gambles, I had to be really careful who I picked. I picked:
- Mark Cavendish, Richie Porte, Edvald Boasson Hagen: Hopefully these 3 picks are self-evident, as they are the 3rd, 4th, and 11th most popular picks. Cav, despite being beaten twice this week, still 'has it' I believe (hell, Kittel hasn't even been able to contest a stage yet, and people aren't talking about him not having it), and his 2014 was focused largely around a Tour he crashed out of before it really began. Give him a 2nd GT and some placings in the Tour, minus long recovery time of 2014, and the points will come. EBH will have more chances at MTN, and even if he's not going to be the Merckx people thought he would be at age 19, he's still a top-notch, if mercurial, rider. These were all slam dunks for me.
- Rohan Dennis: this was a tougher pick, given the competition. He was almost the same score as his non-GT-finishing, Dauphine-winning former teammate Andrew Talansky. Both of them are favourites of mine in this game, as I've picked both twice before. I picked Dennis because he's still improving, hasn't shown fully what he could do yet (although now he's off to a good start), and seems to be at the head of a young-trending BMC squad. I see him as a complementary talent to van Garderen, whereas Talansky's role is more complicated in a team with Hesjedal, and a Tour suited to non-TTer Dan Martin. Anyway, the other two guys I've picked 3 years in a row (Battaglin and Sicard) didn't really pan out well, so I'm hoping to buck the trend with Dennis. I think he's a 1200+ point talent.
Who I didn't pick in that bracket but was on my list, were the following:
- Betancur: it's been summarized by a few people, but for me he's like an alternate-reality Purito - always up in the mix when he's healthy, but then, unpredictably, he might just not be there the next race. Last year he was so overweight, still somehow won Paris-friggin-Nice (nonchallenging course as it was, he won over top-level talent), making me wonder what he'd be like on regular weight. And then, nosedive, disappointing Ardennes, disappearing act before the Tour, coming back to lanterne rouge it at the Vuelta. WTF? I truly believe that on top form, he could podium this year's Tour. And that top form will come. Do I trust it to stick around? Hell no. He's the guy who will get you 250 points in a week and you think everything's on the up and doing pro-rated calculations for the rest of the year, and then he'll get you that amount in the next 3 months. Kudos to those who could take that risk; I just couldn't.
- guys like Nico Roche, Intxausti, Poels, LL Sanchez, Fuglsang would all be borderline good picks if they weren't on such large teams that their talents would be swamped with the megastars they are with.
- guys like Valgren Andersen, Barguil, Zoidl, Alaphilippe, Cort Nielsen and Meintjes are all attractive riders who are improving at a young age, similar to Dennis, but my take on their ability to grow, CQ-wise, isn't as much of a potential high as Dennis, and I only had one spot really. Valgren Andersen was so, so impressive around the Worlds last year and hung tight in the long races, which was amazing for a neo-pro. But he'll trade his high placings at smaller races with a bit lower places at larger races this year and get about the same. Cort Nielsen is one among many at OGE; Meintjes seems like a real talent but will be blooded at the Tour where a top 20 will be amazing, but not exactly a top 10 Vuelta finish, points-wise. Alaphilippe was the most tempting, as he fills a niche at OPQS not as swamped with talent as the cobbles, but in the end I couldn't.
- guys like Vichot, Bakelants, Boom, and Viviani I thought were good but their ceilings seem just a little too low for me (if Bakelants can prove me wrong by repeating his freakish 2013, I'll be impressed). Boom might be an exception in a classics-starved Astana lineup, but his career has been too mercurial for my liking.
- guys like Schleck, Roelandts and Cunego were attractive from a points perspective, but I just think they don't have much room for growth based on their age (and once I heard Roelandts wasn't riding the classics).
One special exception is Taylor Phinney. I really like the guy, and have picked him a couple of times in this game. It's just - it's hard to pick a guy that might be a completely different rider when he comes back, and is not coming back until halfway through the year. If he was Henao cost, I could take a similar risk (because Henao's return to form is no sure thing given the injury he suffered), but 320 points is just too much. I wish him a full recovery in real life, but in this game I don't believe it enough to take him.
Anyone else have thoughts on why they picked their 300-700 point guys?
Because of picking those two expensive guys, my spots for 'mid-level' picks (something I'd think of as a rider between 300-600ish points) were really sparse compared to previous years, so when I was putting together my team and decided to go for the expensive gambles, I had to be really careful who I picked. I picked:
- Mark Cavendish, Richie Porte, Edvald Boasson Hagen: Hopefully these 3 picks are self-evident, as they are the 3rd, 4th, and 11th most popular picks. Cav, despite being beaten twice this week, still 'has it' I believe (hell, Kittel hasn't even been able to contest a stage yet, and people aren't talking about him not having it), and his 2014 was focused largely around a Tour he crashed out of before it really began. Give him a 2nd GT and some placings in the Tour, minus long recovery time of 2014, and the points will come. EBH will have more chances at MTN, and even if he's not going to be the Merckx people thought he would be at age 19, he's still a top-notch, if mercurial, rider. These were all slam dunks for me.
- Rohan Dennis: this was a tougher pick, given the competition. He was almost the same score as his non-GT-finishing, Dauphine-winning former teammate Andrew Talansky. Both of them are favourites of mine in this game, as I've picked both twice before. I picked Dennis because he's still improving, hasn't shown fully what he could do yet (although now he's off to a good start), and seems to be at the head of a young-trending BMC squad. I see him as a complementary talent to van Garderen, whereas Talansky's role is more complicated in a team with Hesjedal, and a Tour suited to non-TTer Dan Martin. Anyway, the other two guys I've picked 3 years in a row (Battaglin and Sicard) didn't really pan out well, so I'm hoping to buck the trend with Dennis. I think he's a 1200+ point talent.
Who I didn't pick in that bracket but was on my list, were the following:
- Betancur: it's been summarized by a few people, but for me he's like an alternate-reality Purito - always up in the mix when he's healthy, but then, unpredictably, he might just not be there the next race. Last year he was so overweight, still somehow won Paris-friggin-Nice (nonchallenging course as it was, he won over top-level talent), making me wonder what he'd be like on regular weight. And then, nosedive, disappointing Ardennes, disappearing act before the Tour, coming back to lanterne rouge it at the Vuelta. WTF? I truly believe that on top form, he could podium this year's Tour. And that top form will come. Do I trust it to stick around? Hell no. He's the guy who will get you 250 points in a week and you think everything's on the up and doing pro-rated calculations for the rest of the year, and then he'll get you that amount in the next 3 months. Kudos to those who could take that risk; I just couldn't.
- guys like Nico Roche, Intxausti, Poels, LL Sanchez, Fuglsang would all be borderline good picks if they weren't on such large teams that their talents would be swamped with the megastars they are with.
- guys like Valgren Andersen, Barguil, Zoidl, Alaphilippe, Cort Nielsen and Meintjes are all attractive riders who are improving at a young age, similar to Dennis, but my take on their ability to grow, CQ-wise, isn't as much of a potential high as Dennis, and I only had one spot really. Valgren Andersen was so, so impressive around the Worlds last year and hung tight in the long races, which was amazing for a neo-pro. But he'll trade his high placings at smaller races with a bit lower places at larger races this year and get about the same. Cort Nielsen is one among many at OGE; Meintjes seems like a real talent but will be blooded at the Tour where a top 20 will be amazing, but not exactly a top 10 Vuelta finish, points-wise. Alaphilippe was the most tempting, as he fills a niche at OPQS not as swamped with talent as the cobbles, but in the end I couldn't.
- guys like Vichot, Bakelants, Boom, and Viviani I thought were good but their ceilings seem just a little too low for me (if Bakelants can prove me wrong by repeating his freakish 2013, I'll be impressed). Boom might be an exception in a classics-starved Astana lineup, but his career has been too mercurial for my liking.
- guys like Schleck, Roelandts and Cunego were attractive from a points perspective, but I just think they don't have much room for growth based on their age (and once I heard Roelandts wasn't riding the classics).
One special exception is Taylor Phinney. I really like the guy, and have picked him a couple of times in this game. It's just - it's hard to pick a guy that might be a completely different rider when he comes back, and is not coming back until halfway through the year. If he was Henao cost, I could take a similar risk (because Henao's return to form is no sure thing given the injury he suffered), but 320 points is just too much. I wish him a full recovery in real life, but in this game I don't believe it enough to take him.
Anyone else have thoughts on why they picked their 300-700 point guys?
- Oct 23, 2011
- 3,846
- 2
- 0
One interesting middle pick I think is Jurgen van den Broeck. I already said before I'm quite surprised that he wasn't a very common pick. IIRC last year 341 at points he was one of the most common picks. This year for 364 points only 21 picked him. I know last year was very disappointing and he has amassed a reputation of under-performing and for all I know he might crank out ~350 points again, but to me it seems that a normal season for him is something like ~750 points making him a good pick.
One thing that has always limited his points is only focusing on the TDF; but it's clear that he changed his attitude a bit, since he will do Giro/Vuelta this year. If he rides at a normal level in the Giro/Vuelta and he gets a few okayish results in prep races he should score even higher than his 2010/2011/2012 season when he focused on the TDF with some success.
But I guess everybody just lost faith in Jurgen?
Also, on another note, Valgren is a poor man's Wellens. Just sayin'
One thing that has always limited his points is only focusing on the TDF; but it's clear that he changed his attitude a bit, since he will do Giro/Vuelta this year. If he rides at a normal level in the Giro/Vuelta and he gets a few okayish results in prep races he should score even higher than his 2010/2011/2012 season when he focused on the TDF with some success.
But I guess everybody just lost faith in Jurgen?
Also, on another note, Valgren is a poor man's Wellens. Just sayin'
- May 15, 2011
- 45,171
- 617
- 24,680
Maaaaaaaarten said:Also, on another note, Valgren is a poor man's Wellens. Just sayin'
Hey!
I picked Valgren ...
750 points I expectoh and Valgren said he will take his first win in Paris-Nice.. just saying!
Maaaaaaaarten said:
This was my thinking in picking him: he is likely to increase his point total by not focusing on the TDF. I'm also surprised that more people didn't think that way.
- Jan 6, 2014
- 548
- 0
- 0
I'm pretty pleased with the 119 points Ruben Fernandez scored in Australia.
Bentancur can be an all or nothing guy, I only considered him when I saw the pictures from the training rides in Colombia where he looked slimmer than the year before. He hadn't many race days, so I guess he will at least score his 2014 points with a good chance to double them.
Cavendish also hadn't many race days, even if his best days might be over he will score more points than last year.
Roelandts also missed some races last year where he would normally score big points. And he was in good form, so I guess he's a pretty safe pick.
König is a bit risky when he won't be a protected rider in many races. I do hope however that he will only help Froome in the Tour and will get his chances at smaller races and at least one GT (Giro?). And before the start of the season I didn't think Porte will reach his 2013 level. :roll eyes:
EHB: He will get more chances at MTN and be probably very motivated this year. So he too can be good for 1.000 points and I don't think he will score less than his costs.
I didn't pick Porte as I don't like him and I didn't think he would be that good. I might regret not picking him at the end of the season but then I'm only competing for the top 100.
skidmark said:
Bentancur can be an all or nothing guy, I only considered him when I saw the pictures from the training rides in Colombia where he looked slimmer than the year before. He hadn't many race days, so I guess he will at least score his 2014 points with a good chance to double them.
Cavendish also hadn't many race days, even if his best days might be over he will score more points than last year.
Roelandts also missed some races last year where he would normally score big points. And he was in good form, so I guess he's a pretty safe pick.
König is a bit risky when he won't be a protected rider in many races. I do hope however that he will only help Froome in the Tour and will get his chances at smaller races and at least one GT (Giro?). And before the start of the season I didn't think Porte will reach his 2013 level. :roll eyes:
EHB: He will get more chances at MTN and be probably very motivated this year. So he too can be good for 1.000 points and I don't think he will score less than his costs.
I didn't pick Porte as I don't like him and I didn't think he would be that good. I might regret not picking him at the end of the season but then I'm only competing for the top 100.
- May 15, 2011
- 45,171
- 617
- 24,680
I think I scored about 300 total this week 290 from riders everyone else has too
I'm just waiting for Ruta del Sol to pounce
290 from riders everyone else has too I'm just waiting for Ruta del Sol to pounce
skidmark said:
It is interesting that you say this because also I was trying to find out about his plans and obviously read the CN article which said:
CN said:
The point is that this article in my understanding did not mean to say he would not ride any classics, but rather that he would not ride any additional classics to what he rode in 2014. Otherwise the ending remark would not make sense... But it was all very ambiguous I must admit, so who knows?
GP Blanco said:
This is why TDU is a small treasure for this game - riders get WT points for HC-like performances
But Grmay's performance was really quite unexpected and he now looks to be a very promising pick so good for you and four others who believed in him!
- May 9, 2010
- 11,070
- 2,540
- 28,180
Rohan Dennis already at 357 points. Interesting. I never considered him at all, but in hindsight I can see why a few have picked him. He does have the qualities to score a lot of points.
I doubted for a long time about my 300-700 riders. Happy I picked Dennis, seems he really found his place now at BMC, I see a lot of potential in this guy. He can score some good points in TTs and smaller stage races (with or without TT). I don't see him as a real GT contender. I'll like to compare him with Dumoulin, maybe with even better climbing skills.
Considered for a long time Alaphillipe, but didn't pick him in the end. He got already quite some points (350 I believe) and don't think he can score he can score much more this year (in this squad).
Porte was an obvious choice, he can score much more than he did last year.
Others didn't race yet, so we'll see that later..
btw also very happy with Wouter Wippert (2 picks), now he can race in bigger races he can score more points I hope.
Considered for a long time Alaphillipe, but didn't pick him in the end. He got already quite some points (350 I believe) and don't think he can score he can score much more this year (in this squad).
Porte was an obvious choice, he can score much more than he did last year.
Others didn't race yet, so we'll see that later..
btw also very happy with Wouter Wippert (2 picks), now he can race in bigger races he can score more points I hope.
- Aug 3, 2009
- 1,562
- 0
- 0
Hugo Koblet said:
I hope you are right, I picked him because I see a lot of potential for those week long races without high mountains and a ITT. Could win quite a few.
- May 15, 2011
- 45,171
- 617
- 24,680
TDU results for my team
JUUL JENSEN Christopher - 5
PORTE Richie - 223
STANNARD Ian - 5
CRADDOCK Lawson - 0
MOSER Moreno - 17
250 exactly
JUUL JENSEN Christopher - 5
PORTE Richie - 223
STANNARD Ian - 5
CRADDOCK Lawson - 0
MOSER Moreno - 17
250 exactly
- May 15, 2011
- 45,171
- 617
- 24,680
my teams for the next few races
Challenge Mallorca (4x 1.1)
LASCA Francesco
VERHELST Louis
JANSE VAN RENSBURG Reinardt
MOHORIC Matej
Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race (1.1)
EWAN Caleb
MOSER Moreno
PORTE Richie
STANNARD Ian
Grand Prix Cycliste la Marseillaise (1.1)
ELISSONDE Kenny
HIVERT Jonathan
Challenge Mallorca (4x 1.1)
LASCA Francesco
VERHELST Louis
JANSE VAN RENSBURG Reinardt
MOHORIC Matej
Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race (1.1)
EWAN Caleb
MOSER Moreno
PORTE Richie
STANNARD Ian
Grand Prix Cycliste la Marseillaise (1.1)
ELISSONDE Kenny
HIVERT Jonathan
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