I was trying to make up what else I could be doing instead of doing some actual work, and this little piece of statistics came out of it
I got an idea to look at, riders from which nations are most popular in this year's game. My analysis is not entirely precise and may have some flaws because I used 2014 ranking as the source and some riders were not in it, and I was too lazy to look up country for them, so whoever wishes to improve this is welcome to do so.
First I counted each pick separately, i.e. if a rider was picked 100 times, his nationality counted 100 times too. This approach shows, riders from which countries were most attractive to us. Here the most popular country is Italy, closely followed by Colombia and Australia:
1. ITA 12.2%
2. COL 11.9%
3. AUS 10.4%
4. FRA 9.6%
5. GBR 8.6%
6. BEL 8.0%
7. NED 6.6%
8. USA 5.4%
9. SLO 3.1%
10.NOR 3.0%
Then, I counted each rider only once, i.e. disregarding popularity. This result indicates how deep we went within pools of available riders from each nation. Here the winner was Italy again, with France and Belgium second and closely third:
1. ITA 13.5%
2. FRA 9.4%
3. BEL 9.2%
4. NED 6.9%
5. AUS 4.6%
5. USA 4.6%
7. COL 4.3%
8. ESP 3.9%
8. GBR 3.9%
10. GER 3.1%
Finally, I analysed full 2014 ranking to see what the distribution is among all ranked riders. Italy tops also this ranking, with France and Belgium second and third again:
1. ITA 8.0%
2. FRA 7.7%
3. BEL 6.6%
4. NED 5.4%
5. ESP 4.2%
6. GER 3.7%
7. COL 3.3%
8. AUS 3.0%
9. USA 2.9%
10. RUS 2.7%
A couple of my conclusions from all of this:
- We are in general relatively country-neutral in terms of picking riders to teams. We tend to pick more riders from those countries, which simply offer more riders to choose from (as the same countries top the 2nd and 3rd list). If a country has bigger share overall, we even tend to pick its riders more often (riders from top countries have 1.5-times bigger share than their normal share, with the exception of Spain, Germany, and Russia).
- Spain, Germany, and Russia are missing from the 1st list, which indicates that their riders, although represented by reasonable though relatively lower share of riders in our teams than their normal share, were in general relatively less popular. Russian riders are particularly low in popularity ranking, and to some extent also Belgian and Italian ones, as these nations improved their share if popularity effect was removed.
- On the other hand, some countries stand out a bit. Those riders from Colombia, Australia and Great Britain, which were picked, were generally among more popular picks. Therefore they rank higher in the 1st list, than in the 2nd. I don't think this is a surprise that there is some positive bias towards these nations among us CQ managers on this forum...
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