Skibby the bush kangaroo said:
That is a pretty good team! Perhaps we should include it in the excel file so we can keep track on this team?
What do you think guys?
That is a pretty good team! Perhaps we should include it in the excel file so we can keep track on this team?
What do you think guys?
- Dec 29, 2011
- 299
- 3
- 9,035
Skibby the bush kangaroo said:
The fun thing about this game is, you can end up with only 7 of these guys and still finish 30th.
Anacona, Vanendert, Chaves, Formolo, Boonen Yates and Aru were the only one I had last year..
Armchair Cyclist
Moderator
- Mar 22, 2010
- 14,323
- 10,114
- 28,180
Jancouver said:
The top 33 riders last year was only just over budget, at 7550, and would have scored 12936, which would have placed the "collective wisdom" team in 16th place at the end of the game.
BOONEN Tom 139 783
SCHLECK Andy 99 37
GOSS Matthew 217 66
MOSER Moreno 353 87
VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen 341 364
DE GENDT Thomas 154 54
KESSIAKOFF Fredrik 42 25
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 0 476
GERDEMANN Linus 0 111
ARU Fabio 262 1092
HESJEDAL Ryder 294 528
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 97 10
URAN URAN Rigoberto 742 938
VANENDERT Jelle 96 534
TAARAMÄE Rein 143 389
BOASSON HAGEN Edvald 743 429
EWAN Caleb 110 95
COPPEL Jérôme 163 288
PHINNEY Taylor 475 320
ANACONA GOMEZ Winner Andrew 20 308
YATES Simon 164 207
SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon 380 543
DUARTE AREVALO Fabio Andres 119 284
CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto 1228 2543
GUARDINI Andrea 182 289
MOHORIC Matej 126 55
NUYENS Nick 30 30
QUINTANA ROJAS Dayer Uberney 0 161
KRUIJSWIJK Steven 125 374
KENNAUGH Peter 93 600
VILLELLA Davide 219 292
DENNIS Rohan 394 528
HENAO MARIN Sebastian 0 96
What a difference with this year, where the top 33 riders are worth 10638 together.Armchair cyclist said:
- May 20, 2009
- 8,934
- 7
- 17,495
I constrained Purito to be in the team. Differences: Froome, Boom and Flakemoore => Rodriguez, Chaves, Phinney. Got a point better.Skibby the bush kangaroo said:
Rider Cost TimesPicked
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis 92 132
EWAN Caleb 95 130
PORTE Richie 415 124
CAVENDISH Mark 642 118
MOSER Moreno 87 116
GESINK Robert 274 115
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 10 114
YATES Simon 207 107
GOSS MATTHEW 66 106
DE GENDT Thomas 54 94
BOASSON HAGEN Edvald 429 93
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto 616 84
STANNARD Ian 250 72
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 102 69
HENAO GOMEZ Sebastian 96 60
MOHORIC Matej 55 59
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel 69 57
TALANSKY Andrew 534 52
JUNGELS Bob 240 49
TEUNS Dylan 167 47
QUINTANA ROJAS Dayer Uberney 161 41
STUYVEN Jasper 158 41
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim 1150 40
BRAJKOVIC Janez 172 40
HIVERT Jonathan 169 40
ELISSONDE Kenny 115 37
SCHUMACHER Stefan 60 36
KUMP Marko 28 34
VERVAEKE Louis 115 32
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 476 30
PHINNEY Taylor 320 30
LATOUR Pierre-Roger 71 30
MORTON Lachlan 0 30
Total 7495 2259
Hope I did the math right.
- Oct 21, 2012
- 3,653
- 2,958
- 19,180
ingsve said:
Me too. He was first on my list, and one of the last to get culled. The only reason is his tendency to crash. But if he stays upright, could easily be a +500-600 pointer. Must have got nearly all his points in the first few weeks of last year? The rest of the season was a bit of a write off from what I remember. Could be a great pick. Think I might have made a mistake
Hello, my TEAM for this game:
Nairo QUINTANA 1551
Chris FROOME 1437
Edvald BOASSON HAGEN 429
Lars BOOM 421
Richie PORTE 415
Taylor PHINNEY 320
Enrico BATTAGLIN 290
Robert GESINK 274
Alexander KOLOBNEV 261
Ian STANNARD 250 ((or Marco MARCATO 240, but my total is just 7500))
Bob JUNGELS 240
Simon YATES 207
Oscar GATTO 175
Ivan BASSO 128
Sondre Holst ENGER 118
Dylan GROENEWEGEN 117
Stefan KUNG 103
Luca PAOLINI 95
Caleb EWAN 95
Sergio HENAO 92
Moreno MOSER 87
Matthew GOSS 66
Johnny HOOGERLAND 65
Thomas BOUDAT 61
Daniele RATTO 55
Thomas DE GENDT 54
Luca WACKERMANN 37
Federico ZURLO 24
Jakub MARECZKO 15
Joseph Lloyd DOMBROWSKI 10
Nicolas MARINI 8
Lachlan MORTON 0
7500 points
Nairo QUINTANA 1551
Chris FROOME 1437
Edvald BOASSON HAGEN 429
Lars BOOM 421
Richie PORTE 415
Taylor PHINNEY 320
Enrico BATTAGLIN 290
Robert GESINK 274
Alexander KOLOBNEV 261
Ian STANNARD 250 ((or Marco MARCATO 240, but my total is just 7500))
Bob JUNGELS 240
Simon YATES 207
Oscar GATTO 175
Ivan BASSO 128
Sondre Holst ENGER 118
Dylan GROENEWEGEN 117
Stefan KUNG 103
Luca PAOLINI 95
Caleb EWAN 95
Sergio HENAO 92
Moreno MOSER 87
Matthew GOSS 66
Johnny HOOGERLAND 65
Thomas BOUDAT 61
Daniele RATTO 55
Thomas DE GENDT 54
Luca WACKERMANN 37
Federico ZURLO 24
Jakub MARECZKO 15
Joseph Lloyd DOMBROWSKI 10
Nicolas MARINI 8
Lachlan MORTON 0
7500 points
cineteq said:
I'll happily put both of these 'most popular' teams on the spreadsheet and track them if people are interested... not sure if they should be included on the rankings page, or maybe just have their own pages where people can check them out. I'm leaning towards the latter.
- May 15, 2011
- 45,171
- 617
- 24,680
So I haven't even gotten to talk about my team yet! I don't think I want to do it all in one blow right now, but I'm interested in at least talking about the (for me at least) unprecedentedly expensive top-end picks, as they were kind of what set my whole strategy. On my team, that was Sagan and Rodriguez.
So, Sagan was the most expensive pick I was considering even remotely seriously this year, or of anyone in any year of this game. 1606 points is a lot to rest on one guy's shoulders. One of the thought experiments I do on riders when trying to determine whether to pick them is what their floor is, and what their ceiling is. This is how I thought about Sagan and Rodriguez, vs. other expensive but maybe good picks like Froome and Quintana.
Sagan's floor is sky high, I think as high as any rider I can think of in this game, simply because he can win or place in just about anything. The most common way a rider can bottom out in points is injury, and there's no way to control that aside from avoiding riders that cost too much so the risk is lower. But even if Sagan gets a broken collarbone in March and misses the whole classics season, he has the talent to get 1500-2000 points with a back-loaded schedule. Another common way for a rider to bottom out is bad form, overtraining, whatever it is that makes an 'off year' happen. I felt like this was what I was seeing from Sagan this year.
As for ceiling... He showed last year at 23 that he can get 2600 points if things go well, and this year he has a new and much stronger team, and I can't see him somehow getting worse at 25. I'm of the belief that last year was a dip (and he couldn't get his form right around the worlds) rather than an indicator of a decline phase at an age where most riders aren't even peaking yet. The stronger team, of course, could actually could help someone like Breschel act as a Devolder-like foil, but after a year of not dominating things as much, I think people are going to be more likely to make the mistake of pulling in a chase group that has Sagan. At least until he wins a monument, which I think may happen before April even.
Applying the same floor/ceiling thinking to Rodriguez, I felt confident enough to pick him. How could his floor be lower than last year? He had his usual consistent spring with a win in Catalunya to boot, but then sustained a rib injury in the Ardennes, where he usually scores a ton. Then he worsened it at the Giro before he could really get going, and then rushed back to the Tour, always a minute behind on form. Then the Vuelta, where he still seemed a step behind, a bit anonymous, but hey, he still finished fourth. Two injuries at key times of the season and THEN mistiming form later in the season? I don't see how it could be worse.
The elephant in the room is, of course, his age, and the possibility that his poor 2014 was just masking a decline phase. And that is a fair thought for caution - 36 is about the age where a rider's performance can fall straight off a cliff. But with JRod, I just don't see it. Look at his palmares the last 5 seasons and you'll see a model of consistency that is crazy. He just performs in everything, pretty much. This year he's targeting the Tour as his first GT of the year, and I think it's a good move. Aside from the fact that the Huy stage gives him the best chance of his career to wear the yellow jersey, just map his Vuelta performance of this year onto the Tour and imagine where he'd end up. He finished behind Froome, Contador and Valverde. Replace Valverde with Quintana and add Nibali, and he'd be in with a shot at 5th in the Tour, emerging French talent aside. So, for this season, we have a relaxed spring season with a peak in form by the Ardennes without having to worry about holding it over for the Giro. Then we have some rest and training, coming back at the Dauphine to peak for the climber-friendly Tour, and holding it through the Vuelta. Not hard to imagine 2000+ points.
So that's great, but what about Froome? I think Froome's floor is quite high too - he had a bad year this year for what I think his level should be, but that meant: winning Romandie, tanking the end of the Dauphine, crashing out of the Tour, and getting 2nd at the Vuelta. He's gotta do better this year. But... I don't know. If he wins the Tour, he might just call it a season then, and I only see him as really valuable in CQ if he does 2 GTs (unless he runs the table on week long WT events ala 2013). It's just too iffy for me - he has a ceiling as high as Sagan's, but I can also imagine Rodriguez getting as many points as him while costing 300 fewer. I think both Froome and JRod will end up around 2000, but if I had to bet on only one of them making it, I'd go with the uber-consistent Purito.
Quintana is somewhat in the same boat. He's great and will perform wherever, but how much will he race and how much will he lead? He could also win the Tour, and then what? Even if he doesn't win the Tour, you can bet your bottom dollar that if Movistar go all in for him in the Tour, Valv is gonna be the leader for the Vuelta. And as a young rider going for 2 GTs, how much are Movistar gonna race him aside from that? This year he did 2 GTs not back-to-back and he didn't do too many races other than those. Again, I can see a good year in there, maybe 2000-2200, but he doesn't have as many options to pick up points as Sagan or Rodriguez.
I guess what it comes down to is who is going to have the most opportunities to score points, and Quintana is going to have to share the wealth with Valverde if they're both riding the same GTs. And, although Froome is the undisputed leader for Sky, they have so many options, he is not consistent (in 2013 it all came together, but 2014 was spotty and 2012 he wasn't good until the Dauphine), and so he's just too expensive to take the chance on, given that there are more solid bets around that price.
Anyone who picked Quintana and Froome see it differently? I'm interested.
So, Sagan was the most expensive pick I was considering even remotely seriously this year, or of anyone in any year of this game. 1606 points is a lot to rest on one guy's shoulders. One of the thought experiments I do on riders when trying to determine whether to pick them is what their floor is, and what their ceiling is. This is how I thought about Sagan and Rodriguez, vs. other expensive but maybe good picks like Froome and Quintana.
Sagan's floor is sky high, I think as high as any rider I can think of in this game, simply because he can win or place in just about anything. The most common way a rider can bottom out in points is injury, and there's no way to control that aside from avoiding riders that cost too much so the risk is lower. But even if Sagan gets a broken collarbone in March and misses the whole classics season, he has the talent to get 1500-2000 points with a back-loaded schedule. Another common way for a rider to bottom out is bad form, overtraining, whatever it is that makes an 'off year' happen. I felt like this was what I was seeing from Sagan this year.
As for ceiling... He showed last year at 23 that he can get 2600 points if things go well, and this year he has a new and much stronger team, and I can't see him somehow getting worse at 25. I'm of the belief that last year was a dip (and he couldn't get his form right around the worlds) rather than an indicator of a decline phase at an age where most riders aren't even peaking yet. The stronger team, of course, could actually could help someone like Breschel act as a Devolder-like foil, but after a year of not dominating things as much, I think people are going to be more likely to make the mistake of pulling in a chase group that has Sagan. At least until he wins a monument, which I think may happen before April even.
Applying the same floor/ceiling thinking to Rodriguez, I felt confident enough to pick him. How could his floor be lower than last year? He had his usual consistent spring with a win in Catalunya to boot, but then sustained a rib injury in the Ardennes, where he usually scores a ton. Then he worsened it at the Giro before he could really get going, and then rushed back to the Tour, always a minute behind on form. Then the Vuelta, where he still seemed a step behind, a bit anonymous, but hey, he still finished fourth. Two injuries at key times of the season and THEN mistiming form later in the season? I don't see how it could be worse.
The elephant in the room is, of course, his age, and the possibility that his poor 2014 was just masking a decline phase. And that is a fair thought for caution - 36 is about the age where a rider's performance can fall straight off a cliff. But with JRod, I just don't see it. Look at his palmares the last 5 seasons and you'll see a model of consistency that is crazy. He just performs in everything, pretty much. This year he's targeting the Tour as his first GT of the year, and I think it's a good move. Aside from the fact that the Huy stage gives him the best chance of his career to wear the yellow jersey, just map his Vuelta performance of this year onto the Tour and imagine where he'd end up. He finished behind Froome, Contador and Valverde. Replace Valverde with Quintana and add Nibali, and he'd be in with a shot at 5th in the Tour, emerging French talent aside. So, for this season, we have a relaxed spring season with a peak in form by the Ardennes without having to worry about holding it over for the Giro. Then we have some rest and training, coming back at the Dauphine to peak for the climber-friendly Tour, and holding it through the Vuelta. Not hard to imagine 2000+ points.
So that's great, but what about Froome? I think Froome's floor is quite high too - he had a bad year this year for what I think his level should be, but that meant: winning Romandie, tanking the end of the Dauphine, crashing out of the Tour, and getting 2nd at the Vuelta. He's gotta do better this year. But... I don't know. If he wins the Tour, he might just call it a season then, and I only see him as really valuable in CQ if he does 2 GTs (unless he runs the table on week long WT events ala 2013). It's just too iffy for me - he has a ceiling as high as Sagan's, but I can also imagine Rodriguez getting as many points as him while costing 300 fewer. I think both Froome and JRod will end up around 2000, but if I had to bet on only one of them making it, I'd go with the uber-consistent Purito.
Quintana is somewhat in the same boat. He's great and will perform wherever, but how much will he race and how much will he lead? He could also win the Tour, and then what? Even if he doesn't win the Tour, you can bet your bottom dollar that if Movistar go all in for him in the Tour, Valv is gonna be the leader for the Vuelta. And as a young rider going for 2 GTs, how much are Movistar gonna race him aside from that? This year he did 2 GTs not back-to-back and he didn't do too many races other than those. Again, I can see a good year in there, maybe 2000-2200, but he doesn't have as many options to pick up points as Sagan or Rodriguez.
I guess what it comes down to is who is going to have the most opportunities to score points, and Quintana is going to have to share the wealth with Valverde if they're both riding the same GTs. And, although Froome is the undisputed leader for Sky, they have so many options, he is not consistent (in 2013 it all came together, but 2014 was spotty and 2012 he wasn't good until the Dauphine), and so he's just too expensive to take the chance on, given that there are more solid bets around that price.
Anyone who picked Quintana and Froome see it differently? I'm interested.
- Apr 30, 2011
- 45,459
- 27,947
- 28,180
I never seriously considered Quintana. I thought long about picking Sagan, but my fear is that he with Tinkoff will aim on the big targets and keep his focus on those, meaning that he'll score less than usual in the small races. Ofc best case scenario he wins three monuments and the WC, but without a point haul in all the smaller races he probably won't break his '13 score.
I think Froome will almost certainly score 2000+ and best case scenario it'll be between 2600-3200. Ruta del Sol (2.HC next year iirc), Tirreno (WT1), Catalunya? (WT2), Romandie (WT2), Dauphiné (WT1), TdF and Vuelta. Loads of points on offer. After this year I think he will go full ***. Biggest risk is a positive and of course crashes/injuries (which is a far bigger risk with Froome than someone like Sagan).
I think Froome will almost certainly score 2000+ and best case scenario it'll be between 2600-3200. Ruta del Sol (2.HC next year iirc), Tirreno (WT1), Catalunya? (WT2), Romandie (WT2), Dauphiné (WT1), TdF and Vuelta. Loads of points on offer. After this year I think he will go full ***. Biggest risk is a positive and of course crashes/injuries (which is a far bigger risk with Froome than someone like Sagan).
skidmark said:
Sagan and Purito (despite having different characteristics) are both perfectly fitted for the CQ ranking module. They ride fast from February until September and excel on various types of terrain. I think it’s extremely plausible to claim Sagan could win any race from San-Remo to Liege Bastogne Liege for example (I don’t think he will win Liege this year) but potentially one day why not; he is just about as talented as they come.
I don’t see any sings of Purito slowing down what-so ever either. I re-watched a lot of the Vuelta on Youtube (in preparation to this game) and he still looks incredible, explosive and lucid on the bike. Climbing wise he is a notch below Contador, Froome and Quintana (in my opinion) but he always kind of been, and it has never stopped him from vacuuming lots of CQ points anyway!!!
It’s become almost an cliché to us the East-European disease phrase, but in Sagan’s case, it’s the only thing that has me wondering. Too much too soon? He earned a ton of money and who knows if it affects him a little mentally. I personally don’t think so, but that’s a question mark I thought of though… the reason I didn’t choose him myself is because he is up against great competitions in the Classics, for example, I think Sep Vanmarcke will be very, very hard to beat in Flanders and Roubaix ect Degenkolb, in San Remo and so on…
I picked Quintana myself. Nairo is a greedy competitor. Everyone around him highlights his firm mind-set and burning desire to always win, which I also hink is reflected in the way he rides his bike… This year many of the tours are extremely mountainous, not only the Tour de France, but also Tour de Suisse (with the TT up Rettenbachgletscher) good luck beating Quintana there, Tirreno-Adriatico will probably be decided on Terminillo, even races like Ruta del Sol will have a super finish on Hazallanas…
Anyway most of all I am just convinced myself Quintana, this year will manifest himself as the best GT rider in the world and thereby also score minimum 2000 points (barring accidents)… Then we can debate if its worth it or not, since he was rather expensive in the first place but my answer would be yes, because he at least is a pretty good and secure investment in banking those 1551 points, lots of riders in the 300 or 400 category are more insecure because lower caliber riders often have more ups and downs in their careers, where riders like Quintana (or Sagan and Purito if you will) have so much class they always are among the best in the world no matter what and no matter where they race. Again barring accidents. Another strategy is spreading the risk and go for a more all-round team... Despite having Quintana, I have tried that this year myself.
Anyway. Even if they don’t make a huge profit, they at least are a good bet to bring home their point already from this year (2014) if you can follow my logic… anyway that's just my take on things.
Armchair Cyclist
Moderator
- Mar 22, 2010
- 14,323
- 10,114
- 28,180
skidmark said:
You might have noticed the way I've displayed a Collective Wisdom team in my CQ games: I post at the bottom of the Results page with a couple of lines separation, and do not include it in the ranking range.
- Apr 27, 2012
- 92
- 1
- 8,685
From those big 4, I only picked one (Purito) because I wanted as many WT leaders or protected riders as I could get. Having one more as Froome would imply to let down some riders between Betancur, Cav, Barguil, Talansky, Porte, EBH or Roelandts, and I think all of them have the potential to go for a Gerranesque year, from ~500 to ~1500.
Purito was the one precisely because he is has been for the past few years the best CQ points gatherer in the whole peloton. He's the guy that in a good year, winning Flèche and Lombardia and performing well in Pays Vasco, Giro and Vuelta does the same amount of points as a Gilbert 2011.... My problem with his age was not some lack of ability, but the possibility that after a bad year he would loose his eager temperament for results, sitting confortably on his paywage. And kind of lost all my fears when I imagined his face getting in touch with 2015's Tour route....
Purito was the one precisely because he is has been for the past few years the best CQ points gatherer in the whole peloton. He's the guy that in a good year, winning Flèche and Lombardia and performing well in Pays Vasco, Giro and Vuelta does the same amount of points as a Gilbert 2011.... My problem with his age was not some lack of ability, but the possibility that after a bad year he would loose his eager temperament for results, sitting confortably on his paywage. And kind of lost all my fears when I imagined his face getting in touch with 2015's Tour route....
- Jul 21, 2011
- 983
- 60
- 10,080
Hmmmm one of the least popular teams, this could be very good or very bad.
13 riders with less than 10 people selected including 6 unique picks.
One of whom has retired, well fudge. Might have rolled over form last year or I confused him with somebody else.
Surprised that I'm the only on to pick Viviani, figure he is likely to be the primary sprinter at sky and should pickup some decent results even if he isn't winning a lot
13 riders with less than 10 people selected including 6 unique picks.
One of whom has retired, well fudge. Might have rolled over form last year or I confused him with somebody else.
Surprised that I'm the only on to pick Viviani, figure he is likely to be the primary sprinter at sky and should pickup some decent results even if he isn't winning a lot
- Mar 19, 2009
- 2,080
- 505
- 13,080
Tigerion said:
Which sprinter has excelled at Sky so far?
I think it's a very risky pick with Viviani, who needs nurturing to deliver results. I just don't see him getting the support he needs. Focus is on GC's, so anything he can take, he'll mainly have to do it himself.
- May 15, 2011
- 45,171
- 617
- 24,680
- May 28, 2012
- 2,779
- 0
- 0
Tigerion said:
Viviani's already been doing that for years at Cannondale with 85 racing days per year. And considering Sky doesn't ride most of the Italian .1 races he will miss out on a lot of points.
- May 15, 2011
- 45,171
- 617
- 24,680
The Hitch said:
I think it meant how many points less you'd score if you picked the next best rider in the same price category??
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