The 2016 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[LaFlorecita]

First points for Meersman - third in Handzame Classic

 

[skidmark]

Yeah that Hanzame finale was such a good example of why sprinting in these small 1-days in Belgium is such a lottery. If you weren't in the first 3 when the sprint started, you were dashing all over the road trying to get wheels, that was nuts. Either way, 40 points from Meersman, and more importantly, he shows that he's actually able to be up there in a finale, which I was worried about due to his invisibility this year so far. He's going to Catalunya, where the sprint stages suit his qualities quite well. First points of the year for Bauhaus as well, which is great, and Grosu picks up 10 more. Not exactly a haul, but it's a good sign and those points add up.

 

[Gigs_98]

I really didnt expect that Demare would be more important for me in Milan Sanremo than Cancellara, but actually its good for me since he is in less teams (still a very popular pick though)
Besides that I'm a bit sad Kwiatkowski wasnt able to stay away because he is very rare. On the other hand he looks very good for the Ardenne Classics so I'm okay with it.

 

[skidmark]

Well, the first monument is done and dusted - how did your team do?

A quick glance through the standings says to watch out for mc_mountain lurking in the top 15 already, with both Demare and Swift on his team.

As for my team, I certainly can't be upset with Demare's big points haul, but it's hard not to think of what could have been if Gaviria hadn't fallen right at the end... not only would have have likely gotten huge points, but Cancellara would have used his leadout to top 5 or 10 for sure, rather than the 5 points he got for 31st. Well, all of those guys are relatively popular riders, but having them helps in the sense of taking points away from other potentially picked riders. I think most of the riders in the top 10 were relatively rare picks, though.

 

[Pentacycle]

FDJ got me some serious points today with Vichot, Démare and Offredo. Though I would've loved if Jasper Stuyven had been on Trek for MSR, come on don't they know anything about good weather favouring sprinters over Cance there?? Hope he gets the chance in the future. Most of all I'm glad that EBH dropped back after his late attack, I'm sorry for the people that had him.

 

[the asian]

Good day for me with Demare and Swift fetching me 450 Points,

It was completely unexpected too.

Believe I'll maintain my Top 10.

 

[skidmark]

Re:

Good day for me with Demare and Swift fetching me 450 Points,

It was completely unexpected too.

Believe I'll maintain my Top 10.

I dunno how I missed your team in the top 10 with Swift too! I name-checked mc_mountain as I thought he was the highest-ranked with both, but obviously I did some shoddy investigative work there, haha. I'd say you will move up handily with those two.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

At least I have Demare, but he's quite popular I guess, not ubiquitous, but still quite a common pick. Also nice that Pozzato is showing signs of life just before the cobbled classics get underway. He's somewhat rare IIRC for some reason unbeknown to me, so that's nice.

 

[PeterB]

So, after a very slow start, which was not unexpected, Catalunya is here and I have one of the biggest teams I remember I ever had in this game for a stage race:
van Garderen, Tejay
Hesjedal, Ryder
Talansky, Andrew
Frank, Mathias
Zaugg, Oliver
Pardilla, Sergio
Navarro, Daniel
Roche, Nicolas
Martin, Daniel
Meersman, Gianni
Kišerlovski, Robert
Gerrans, Simon
Haig, Jack
ten Dam, Laurens

Unfortunately there will also be many other quality riders at this race, but come on, certainly at least one of my riders can do something..?!

 

[mc_mountain]

Points wise I'm glad Demare is demonstrating he is good value, but perhaps without the crash/motor aided ascent, Swift-Demare 1-2 would have been the nicer result. Not enough other points this week, for it to be a stellar total, but might creep up a few places.

If Landa can show something when he makes his delayed start to the season, things are looking ok for Team Emcee.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Next week will have a fair amount of points to be earned. Will be interesting to see what's going to happen. Landa will be very important for me. Not that I expect him to earn a lot of points in his first race after illness, but he's an important pick for me, so I hope he shows a decent level so that I am at least assured he'll be there when he has to in the Giro.

Volta Ciclista a Catalunya
VAN GARDEREN, Tejay
MARTIN, Daniel
LÓPEZ, Miguel Ángel
GERRANS, Simon
FORMOLO, Davide
KUDUS, Merhawi

Dwars door Vlaanderen
GAVIRIA, Fernando
MARTIN, Tony
LUDVIGSSON, Fredrik
POZZATO, Filippo

Settimana Internazionale Coppi e Bartali
LANDA, Mikel

E3 Harelbeke
DÉMARE, Arnaud
ENGER, Sondre Holst
BETANCUR, Carlos
CANCELLARA, Fabian
POZZATO, Filippo

Critérium International
JEANNESSON, Arnold
MARTINEZ, Yannick
ENGER, Sondre Holst

Gent - Wevelgem
GAVIRIA, Fernando
MARTIN, Tony
PHINNEY, Taylor
CANCELLARA, Fabian
DÉMARE, Arnaud
BETANCUR, Carlos

 

[HelgeBlendet]

Cancellara, Kwiatkowski and Nibali staying away would have catapulted me up the rankings I guess. Glad Demare won, but I hope he won't turn into Goss2.0.
Elsewhere Vanbilsen and Senechal scored some nice points with Lietar adding 5 as well.

Not sure what to expect in Catalunya:
Dayer
De Plus
Martin (Dan)
Kudus
Thurau
Lecuisinier

Doesn't sound like much, but they could do something. Martin/Kudus vor GC, rest for stages/KOM and such.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I love when there are so many races going on at the same time

Volta a Catalunya
VAN GARDEREN Tejay
MARTIN Daniel
MEERSMAN Gianni
ROSA Diego
GERRANS Simon
VERMEULEN Alexey
CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto
ZAUGG Oliver
HARDY Romain
4 guys who can finish top 10 (Tejay, Dan Martin, Alberto and Rosa) and Gerrans and Meersman who can score stage points.

Dwars door Vlaanderen
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
MARTIN Tony

Coppi e Bartali
-

E3 Harelbeke
LANGEVELD Sebastian
DEMARE Arnaud
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
CANCELLARA Fabian

Critérium International
JEANNESSON Arnold
MARTINEZ Yannick
NERZ Dominik

Gent-Wevelgem
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
MARTIN Tony
PHINNEY Taylor
CANCELLARA Fabian
LANGEVELD Sebastian
DEMARE Arnaud
OFFREDO Yohan
ZURLO Federico - not sure after his crash I guess
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
RUFFONI Nicola

 

[LaFlorecita]

My points this week

Tirreno
Cancellara 50
Zurlo 33
Martin 23
Van Garderen 11
Gaviria 10
Nerz 5
Capecchi 5
Phinney 5

Handzame
Meersman 40

Classic Loire Atlantique
Offredo 24

MSR
Demare 280
Vichot 28
Cancellara 5
Jeannesson 5
Nerz 5
Gaviria 5
Capecchi 5

Total 539
Not too unhappy but next week has to be better

 

[GP Blanco]

The Tirreno was a disaster with Van Garderen caught behind a crash but fortunately Démare won MSR.

Volta Ciclista a Catalunya
VAN GARDEREN Tejay
QUINTANA ROJAS Dayer Uberney
MARTIN Daniel
DE PLUS Laurens
LÓPEZ MORENO Miguel Ángel
GERRANS Simon
HAIG Jack
VERVAEKE Louis
BARGUIL Warren
KELDERMAN Wilco
FORMOLO Davide
KUDUS GHEBREMEDHIN Merhawi
DEGAND Thomas

At least some quantity and some riders who could score a decent amount of points.

Dwars door Vlaanderen
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
MARTIN Tony
MEZGEC Luka

A cobbled classic and halve of my team is from Colombia.

 

[jaylew]

I have a bunch of super talented riders in Catalunya, both for GC and stages. Unfortunately this race also has AC, Froome, Nairo, Aru, Purito, Thomas, Bardet, and Porte among others and those guys will likely take most of the top 10 spots

 

[skidmark]

Fun week with a bunch of varied races coming up.

Catalunya

Tejay Van Garderen
Dan Martin
Gianni Meersman
Miguel Angel Lopez
Simon Gerrans
Louis Vervaeke
Warren Barguil
Matej Mohoric
Davide Formolo
Merhawi Kudus

Whoa! What a lineup. Too bad basically the entire lineup of the world's top stage racers are also here to scoop up points. But seriously, Tejay has been good here the last two years, Dan Martin has won it, and I'm reaaaaal curious to see how Lopez holds against the world's best (and, with slightly lesser expectations, Kudus). Gerrans and Meersman should be well suited to the hilly small group finishes, and Formolo will be in his element without a TT stage to lose him time. Mohoric and Barguil back from injury too, good news!

Dwars Door Vlaanderen

Fernando Gaviria
Tony Martin
Jasper Stuyven
Magnus Cort
Sylvain Chavanel
Adrien Petit
Phil Bauhaus

This is what I hoped Trek would do with Stuyven last year - have him as a leader for smaller races, a foil for Canc in the bigger ones. Gaviria seems like he can do anything, and Chavanel is great on cobbles. We'll see.

Coppi e Bartali

nobody, unless the final startlist has Grosu, or someone I have gets tossed on the 'Italy' team.

E3

Arnaud Demare
Sondre Holst Enger
Magnus Cort
Fabian Cancellara
Jasper Stuyven
Sylvain Chavanel

Some good options here - Canc and Demare are certainly good bets, Chavanel could do well, Stuyven we shall see, while Cort and Enger are unproven albeit talented.

OK Criterium International isn't final yet and G-W is a pretty different lineup from E3, so I'll save those for later in the week. That's already enough races!

 

[Nicosix]

Tirreno Adriatico
Kwiatkowski 108
Cancellara 53
T.Martin 23
Van Garderen 11
Gaviria 10
Benoot 5
Phinney 5
Stuyven 5

Nokere Koerse
Van Keirsbulck 12

Handzame Classic
Bauhaus 12

Milan San Remo
Demare 280
Vichot 28
Boom 14
Cancellara 5
Gaviria 5
Jeannesson 5
Kwiatkowski 5
Vanendert 5

591 points for a decent week

 

[GP Blanco]

My string of bad luck continues, Kelderman abandoned today.

 

[skidmark]

Update #10 - There Arnaud ways to the top without Demare

The first Monument of the season wrapped up on Saturday, and some of the 97 teams with Arnaud Demare have rocketed up the standings like a cyclist holding onto a car up a hill. But you can't get to the top of the weekly standings without a bit of extra help, like a teammate pushing you up another hill. So naturally, the winner of this week has both Demare and Bouhanni. It's the work of the whole team that really counts.

This week's top scorers

Rank Team Points this week
1 Emericlabordure 826
2 jeroenk 777
3 squire 753
4 HelgeBlendet 743
5 the asian 735

Newcomer to the game Emericlabordure wins big this week with Bouhanni and Demare (their team also has the third big French sprinter Coquard), but also supplements with big points from Bob Jungels (picked by 9 teams) and a number of riders in the 30-40 point range. Second place jeroenk has points from Demare and Jungels as well, but supplements it from other sources such as Pozzato and a smattering of smaller points. Third place Squire follows a similar path, with Kreuziger thrown in for good measure.

This week's high movers

Rank Team Up/down
1 Emericlabordure (+47)
2 search (+33)
3 scrooll07 (+31)
4 Sneekes (+29)
5 HelgeBlendet (+28)
5 squire (+28)

Not surprising for a team with a few expensive sprinters (including one that's been injured for awhile), Emericlabordure takes the high movers prize as well. search gets points from rare pick Reichenbach to complement Demare in helping their team jump over 30 places.

Green Jersey

Rank Team Total
1 Pentacycle 90
2 jeroenk 80
2 ironted 80
4 Nicosix 72
5 karaev 70

jeroenk leaps into a tie for 2nd with 35 points on the week, their team's 4th scoring week in the competition. No other movement in the top 5.

Polka Dot Jersey

Rank Team Points
1 LosBrolin 42
2 ironted 39
3 the_fool_on_the_hill 33
4 Schleckamagurky 32
4 LaFlorecita 32

No changes in the top 5 this week, but with Catalunya and the cobbles happening this week, it's likely we'll see lots of different riders scoring this week, so the table could get turned upside down with a lot of movement.

Top 10 Overall

Rank Up/down Team Points
1 (-) Pentacycle 3601
2 (+1) Nicosix 3544
3 (+1) Ferminal 3473
4 (+5) the asian 3453
5 (+7) jeroenk 3434
6 (-4) StephenC2020 3431
7 (-1) skidmark 3309
8 (+7) shalgo 3263
9 (-2) karaev 3257
10 (+10) Falze 3256

There's movement down below, but the king stay the king. Pentacycle maintains a lead (albeit a smaller one than last week), and everything is shaken up below that. the asian and jeroenk use their big weeks to catapult into the top 5 (in jeroenk's case, also into the top 10), and shalgo and Falze leap into the top 10, leaving togo95, The Instigator, and ironted (who drops precipitously into 34th from 5th) the odd teams out from last week's top 10.

Spreadsheet at dropbox

 

[Squire]

Cheers for the update! Great week for me. Even though I have the most popular team, the rare picks do the job for me this week.

A few game related observations:
Pentacycle was agonisingly close to beating the all-time record for post-Sanremo score, just 90 points off Mellow Velo's 2012 record.

As was predicted in the beginning of this thread, it seems like we're in for a rather high-scoring year. The post-Sanremo update has generally been a good indicator for this. 2012 and 2015, the two highest scoring years, stand out at this point of the season too. Compared to last year, the current 2016 top team is 129 points ahead, and as mentioned, 90 points behind 2012. The no. 10 spot is interestingly 26 points behind last year's no. 10, but as much as 274 points ahead of 2012. All other years are hundreds of points behind these figures. (For reference, each year's top 3 final scores can be found in the OP of this thread)

Now, the big question is; can we beat 2012, the year the CQ stars aligned? There are reasons both for and against, but the main reason why I think it won't happen is this: Some quite major points were scored in WT stage races that year, while this year we have a lot of unpicked top GC riders who are likely to take away many top five/ten spots. On the other hand, this year we have some popular established riders who are looking very likely to bring in a huge amount of points: Cancellara, Kittel, Gerrans, Demare etc. This means we don't need the crazy amount of insanely profitable, cheap and popular riders of 2012. Just a couple of those unexpected 800-1000 pointers for a lucky team could be enough to tip the balance if the big guys continue like they've started. But as I mentioned, I still think it's unlikely, and the 2015 score is a much more attainable target for this year's winner.

On a side note, this year's discussion thread has been rather quiet compared to other years.

Now for my team

After my excellent week, mostly thanks to Demare, Jungels, Cancellara, Pozzato and Kreuziger (three of whom are pretty rare), I've now moved to 30th. It's quite a bit closer to where I'd like to be at this stage of the season. I'm undecided about the Tirreno cancellation. I could have gotten a lot more points if the stage had been ridden, from TJVG, Kreuziger and Peraud, and perhaps Jungels could've managed a top 10/15. But on the flipside, it took away Nibali points, and the inflated amount of rare Jungels points really sets me apart from a lot of teams. Still, I'm convinced Kreuziger could've top fived, and Peraud possibly top ten, so I guess it's 50-50 whether the cancellation was good for me.

Pozzato riding a perfect Sanremo positioning-wise and finishing 8th is very good news. I now look a lot more forward to the cobbled classics. I still have a few slow starters, but most riders have points on the board, and most are around about where I would want them, with the exception of some bad Peraud luck (puncture in Besseges) and a couple of similar cases (Barguil, Talansky, Lopez). At least no-one is seriously injured or hampered in other ways, and speaking of Peraud, he can get me a nice Corsica podium shortly! It's onwards and upwards for my team.

@skidmark: In the prestigeuos Grosu vs Ciolek/Farrar classification, the former is comfortably leading the two old dogs by 43 to 15 points.
I think Ciolek can do some damage in the coming weeks, but I'm becoming more and more convinced that picking Farrar was a big mistake.

Oh, and by the way, I would still prefer to see my username with a capital S

 

[skidmark]

oh shoot, well I updated your user page to be 'Squire' and did that in the summary, but I guess it didn't carry through automatically to the update pages (which are still 'squire'), which I copied and pasted. I guess if that's the biggest thing I'm doing wrong I'm doing well!

And we shall see about Farrar and Ciolek - it's early yet. But yeah, Farrar certainly seems to be embracing the role of helper. I know he looked strong in Richmond, but I'm beginning to think that was more of putting on a show for the fans rather than any promise of regaining old speed. I mean, he can still be really strong and be primarily a helper, but that's why Stijn Vandenbergh doesn't get a ton of points.

 

[barmaher]

I still can't believe I didn't pick Gerrans. It was so obvious.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Now, the big question is; can we beat 2012, the year the CQ stars aligned? There are reasons both for and against, but the main reason why I think it won't happen is this: Some quite major points were scored in WT stage races that year, while this year we have a lot of unpicked top GC riders who are likely to take away many top five/ten spots. On the other hand, this year we have some popular established riders who are looking very likely to bring in a huge amount of points: Cancellara, Kittel, Gerrans, Demare etc. This means we don't need the crazy amount of insanely profitable, cheap and popular riders of 2012. Just a couple of those unexpected 800-1000 pointers for a lucky team could be enough to tip the balance if the big guys continue like they've started. But as I mentioned, I still think it's unlikely, and the 2015 score is a much more attainable target for this year's winner.

I don't think anybody will come close to skidmark 2012 team. We're already off the pace of that year (albeit only slightly) and that's before taking into account Boonen absurdly good haul from the flemish classics (Cancellara will offset some of that this year but no way is he getting the clean sweep like Boonen did). Maybe if the top team this year is still close after PR, I'll start believing (though skidmark had an very strong finish to the season so even then it's not a given) it might happen.
Sure, established popular riders seem to do well for the moment but so did Rogers/LLS and a couple others back then. Good luck trying to find riders as profitable as Moser/Demare/Durbridge/Quintana in 2012. Iglinskiy was super cheap too and he won a monument.
The one advantage that people have this year is that they don't have a sunk cost like Offredo.

 

[shalgo]

I'm also of the school of thought that it will be very hard to beat the 2012 scores, but this year promises to be very high-scoring as well. One thing to keep in mind is that this too is an Olympic year, which could mean extra points for a number of teams, especially from the time trial if, for example, Tony Martin, Cancellara, and Phinney get points there.

I am pleasantly surprised to see my team move back into the top ten. I didn't expect that. Now I just need Pozzato to ride the cobbled classics like it is 2009.