The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[skidmark]

Also @Skidmark it seems that GEBREIGZABHIER Amanuel Werkilul is such a unique pick for me that he has a popularity of 0 and is missing from your popularity list.

Oh darn, when I was finalizing the spreadsheet I went over all the teams on the Rankings page and compared with my list, and realized that although I had entered your team in your tab on the spreadsheet, I hadn't made a line linking to it in the Rankings, which I then did right before publishing the spreadsheet. I forgot that of course when I was compiling the popularity rankings earlier I had done it through the front sheet, so yours was the only team I missed. It's corrected now, although I haven't made a new popularity table yet. But all your riders have a +1 popularity now.

 

[ingsve]

Are we getting points for presentation ?

Ya, nice presentation, though you should have probably filled your team out to the maximum of 33 riders. You could have just added a bunch of 0-cost riders and any points they bring would have been pure bonus.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Let me start by saying I don’t particularly like Kittel as a rider, and I don’t like Katusha’s ability to help their rider perform to the best of their abilities but I never thought about taking him out the team. I get your point about the GC not being there for sprinters anymore but if there’s one guy that won’t suffer too much it might actually be him. He was so bad at climbing he was already getting zeroes across the board outside of Dubai (47 points outside of Dubai the last three years combined), and it’s not like he has a lot of points there to defend this year. When he gets to 50 race days he has never scored below 750 pts in a season (6 of 7 seasons he got 1000+). Sure, Giant and Quick Step provided a better platform for his ability so he’ll probably get fewer points at Katusha but we’ve also seen him come back from a crappy year with the highest scoring year of his career before. There are more than a few points available at the Tour. I mean he can literally get his 2018 score with a good week there, I don’t think I can say the same with too many guys in his price range. In the end, he’s cheap enough that I don’t think the risk of passing on him is worth it.

Disappointed not to have a unique pick. Seriously who else thought that picking Menten and Canellas was a good idea, you should be ashamed of yourselves

Surprised by the lack of love for De Buyst though.

 

[Koronin]

Let me start by saying I don’t particularly like Kittel as a rider, and I don’t like Katusha’s ability to help their rider perform to the best of their abilities but I never thought about taking him out the team. I get your point about the GC not being there for sprinters anymore but if there’s one guy that won’t suffer too much it might actually be him. He was so bad at climbing he was already getting zeroes across the board outside of Dubai (47 points outside of Dubai the last three years combined), and it’s not like he has a lot of points there to defend this year. When he gets to 50 race days he has never scored below 750 pts in a season (6 of 7 seasons he got 1000+). Sure, Giant and Quick Step provided a better platform for his ability so he’ll probably get fewer points at Katusha but we’ve also seen him come back from a crappy year with the highest scoring year of his career before. There are more than a few points available at the Tour. I mean he can literally get his 2018 score with a good week there, I don’t think I can say the same with too many guys in his price range. In the end, he’s cheap enough that I don’t think the risk of passing on him is worth it.

Disappointed not to have a unique pick. Seriously who else thought that picking Menten and Canellas was a good idea, you should be ashamed of yourselves

Surprised by the lack of love for De Buyst though.

LOL, I also liked Canellas.

I left Kittel off because he didn't fit with points and I don't fully trust him. He could have a great season.

 

[Squire]

Re: Re:

I think I'll skip making a list of my non-picked popular riders. There weren't too many interesting points to be made. Except the riders you're asking about:

I'm interested in hearing what you have to say about Gav, and very especially about Nibali. You must have some very specific thoughts about Nibali, because I can't think why you wouldn't have included him otherwise. And if it was like Gav in terms of 'has crashes that derail his season', or if it was 'he's 34', that doesn't track with you picking Porte as your most expensive pick. So I'm curious.

When I started making my team about a month ago, I looked at Nibali and thought "most obvious pick ever" and stuck him in my team as the first rider I chose. But then I started thinking. If you remove the freak MSR win, his season up until the Tour last year was absolutely nothing even though there was nothing particularly wrong with him. And he wouldn't have podiumed the Tour. He might have had a better late season without the crash, but he still scored quite a few points without actually looking too good. I think Nibali seems to have declined more than Porte (who I don't think has declined at all), but the big difference between them for this game is race schedule. As he has shown the last few years, Nibali does little in the spring, and his schedule this year is not great for the spring version of Nibali. Tirreno is so unsuitable. Additionally, with the Giro-Tour plan, he'll probably be even less inclined to start scoring early. Which brings me to: The Giro field is stacked! No gurarantee of a podium, and he'll be toast by the time the Tour rolls around. Late season might make him a good pick, but too many things need to go right for him to make him worth it. In comparison, a guy like Gallopin (who I picked) will start scoring early, and if something untoward happens, his season is geared so that he can recuperate those lost points somewhere else later. I feel Nibali's season is more like 'perform in your target races or become a bad pick'. And finally I don't like the "98% recovered" talk.

Gaviria, with all his unprovoked crashes, hasn't even had storming seasons at Quickstep, so how can I expect him to do it at UAE? Support there is so much worse, and from what I've seen, I just don't think he has what it takes for the cobbled classics. Which means less points opportunities at a team like UAE, who doesn't ride all the Belgian one-dayers that Quickstep riders use to beef up their CQ values. I'll have a problem if he wins the Worlds though, but hopefully it'll be too hard.

A couple of other things:

I'm thrilled to have TWO unique picks! Must be the first time ever. I'll be cheering extra for Vichot and Brøchner.

I was also quite close to picking Quintana, Padun, Lambrecht, Stannard, Vliegen, Barbier, Barcelo etc. I believe all of those can be good picks. A reason why I'm not overly confident this year is that at least some of the expensive picks like Quintana (especially), Nibali, Landa, Froome, Ewan or Bernal are going to have great seasons. It's not like last year, where I could be pretty certain that Alaphilippe+Thomas or Valverde were the only viable strategies. Now I have to hope that Porte matches the other riders with good seasons.

And a final note: I'm becoming quite certain that Ruvu75 and TheArt, who I was battling for the win last year, must be twins or something. For the second year running they have almost identical teams. Hopefully it's not one person submitting two teams. That would be rather unfair.

Right, now I think I have covered most things worth mentioning about my team. As you have pointed out a few times, skidmark, it's rather self-indulgent, this CQ debate!

 

[skidmark]

Re: Re:

I think I'll skip making a list of my non-picked popular riders. There weren't too many interesting points to be made. Except the riders you're asking about:

I'm interested in hearing what you have to say about Gav, and very especially about Nibali. You must have some very specific thoughts about Nibali, because I can't think why you wouldn't have included him otherwise. And if it was like Gav in terms of 'has crashes that derail his season', or if it was 'he's 34', that doesn't track with you picking Porte as your most expensive pick. So I'm curious.

When I started making my team about a month ago, I looked at Nibali and thought "most obvious pick ever" and stuck him in my team as the first rider I chose. But then I started thinking. If you remove the freak MSR win, his season up until the Tour last year was absolutely nothing even though there was nothing particularly wrong with him. And he wouldn't have podiumed the Tour. He might have had a better late season without the crash, but he still scored quite a few points without actually looking too good. I think Nibali seems to have declined more than Porte (who I don't think has declined at all), but the big difference between them for this game is race schedule. As he has shown the last few years, Nibali does little in the spring, and his schedule this year is not great for the spring version of Nibali. Tirreno is so unsuitable. Additionally, with the Giro-Tour plan, he'll probably be even less inclined to start scoring early. Which brings me to: The Giro field is stacked! No gurarantee of a podium, and he'll be toast by the time the Tour rolls around. Late season might make him a good pick, but too many things need to go right for him to make him worth it. In comparison, a guy like Gallopin (who I picked) will start scoring early, and if something untoward happens, his season is geared so that he can recuperate those lost points somewhere else later. I feel Nibali's season is more like 'perform in your target races or become a bad pick'. And finally I don't like the "98% recovered" talk.

Gaviria, with all his unprovoked crashes, hasn't even had storming seasons at Quickstep, so how can I expect him to do it at UAE? Support there is so much worse, and from what I've seen, I just don't think he has what it takes for the cobbled classics. Which means less points opportunities at a team like UAE, who doesn't ride all the Belgian one-dayers that Quickstep riders use to beef up their CQ values. I'll have a problem if he wins the Worlds though, but hopefully it'll be too hard.

A couple of other things:

I'm thrilled to have TWO unique picks! Must be the first time ever. I'll be cheering extra for Vichot and Brøchner.

I was also quite close to picking Quintana, Padun, Lambrecht, Stannard, Vliegen, Barbier, Barcelo etc. I believe all of those can be good picks. A reason why I'm not overly confident this year is that at least some of the expensive picks like Quintana (especially), Nibali, Landa, Froome, Ewan or Bernal are going to have great seasons. It's not like last year, where I could be pretty certain that Alaphilippe+Thomas or Valverde were the only viable strategies. Now I have to hope that Porte matches the other riders with good seasons.

And a final note: I'm becoming quite certain that Ruvu75 and TheArt, who I was battling for the win last year, must be twins or something. For the second year running they have almost identical teams. Hopefully it's not one person submitting two teams. That would be rather unfair.

Right, now I think I have covered most things worth mentioning about my team. As you have pointed out a few times, skidmark, it's rather self-indulgent, this CQ debate!

Well, if ever there is a time to be self-indulgent, it's around the team reveal. Fair enough, although I may ask you about some other riders of yours once I come back to this thread - I'm done for the day, it's Friday night here and I've gotta get out of the house.

I will briefly say this as someone who picked Nibali and Gaviria - for Nibali, yeah he had a lackluster season start and I wouldn't count on a repeat MSR win, but still. He did 2 GTs, and although maybe he wouldn't have made the podium in the TdF, he was 4th when he crashed out so it's not a crazy stretch. Then he essentially wasted 21 race days at La Vuelta trying against the odds to get in shape for the Worlds. Nibali's a variable rider, but a 21-day race tends to smooth out the bad days, lest we forget what he looked like five days before winning the Giro a couple of years back. Loaded Giro field or no, he can top 5, and depending on how he is in the Tour, he could get a few hundred for GC or maybe stage & mountains. And given the whole fall to concentrate on the Italian year-end calendar, I don't mind his odds, especially given that his worst season other than last year since 2010 was still 1200 points, which I'd be happy with for his price. For Gaviria, I feel like his 1200 point season in 2017 is storming enough for me to pick a rider who a) hasn't hit his full potential yet, and b) hasn't been able to lead at the classics yet. And he's slated to do the Giro and Tour, so there'll be enough chances. I see your point on both, but lean the other way.

 

[Ferminal]

omg haha so after 8 years of this game starting with the Aussie nationals, I only searched "Australian National Road Race" in December to set the start date... and just realized now that the New Zealand TT nats happened a few hours ago!! So for the first time ever, this game starts after CQ points have been awarded :redface: :surprised:

I'll be sure to check that next year; I await the barrage of team changes that come with the competitive advantage of knowing who got those 15 points.

30 points, 30 points for Patrick Bevin winning the ITT.
Maybe young McCormick coming in third would've been a good pick this year?

I doubt it, McCormick is a talented guy, but usually the small Aussie teams barely do any UCI races. Last year BridgeLane's best scoring rider was Alexander Evans with 51 points

edit: he is also too old for Avenir, U23 worlds and stuff like that, nor will he be picked up as a stagiare elsewhere - so on from now his point scoring potential will probably be limited more or less to New Zealand Classic, Herald Sun Tour and the Oceanian Championships.

BridgeLane merged with the old ACJ setup, not entirely clear the extent of his active involvement but I'd definitely expect a good run in Asia.

 

[barmaher]

FROOME Chris
PORTE Richie
NIBALI Vincenzo
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
GAUDU David
KITTEL Marcel
MARECZKO Jakub
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
FELLINE Fabio
STANNARD Robert
MOSCHETTI Matteo
MEINTJES Louis
HINDLEY Jai
DEWULF Stan
WILLIAMS Stephen
BETTIOL Alberto
KÄMNA Lennard
PETILLI Simone
BARBIER Rudy
MORTON Lachlan
HAMILTON Lucas
KENNAUGH Peter
MEINTJES Louis
CAVENDISH Mark
RIABUSHENKO Aliaksandr
HONORE Mikkel Frølich
CONTRERAS PINZON Rodrigo
PEDERSEN Casper Phillip
VALLS FERRI Rafael
BOSWELL Ian
KUSS Sepp
CUMMINGS Stephen
HOFSTEDE Lennard

I made two mistakes. I submitted a team with two Meintjes, and I am in hospital, so I didn't have a chance to see the warning email from Skidmark.

Secondly, I excluded riders with zero points for whatever reason. Evenepoel and Vakoc would have been nice.

 

[Kazistuta]

Re: Re:

@ Kazistuta, an interesting read!

CAPIOT Amaury: Had the unlucky Capiot last year, when yet another injury forced him to miss a big part of the season. I feared he might’ve retired, but he returned to action late season, which convinced me he’s ready to take another stab at the Belgian Calendar as Topsports designated sprinter. Potential 600 points.

I've had Capiot for the last two years. He's like the ultimate CQ guy. But even though I was close to picking him this year as well, I've finally lost faith in a Theuns-like year. His placings in the races he did before his injury weren't too convincing, and some young guys on his team are starting to show some promise in the sprints. A little too risky for me, unfortunately.

LONARDI Giovanni: When one of the most talented Italian sprinters chose Nippo, it did stink a bit at first. But then, at second thought, now he will get a chance in many of the odd Asian races, where sprinters like Guardini and Mareczko get a lot of points. Count me in! Potential 500 points.

I like Lonardi too, and has kept an eye on him for a few years now. But they have so many sprinters! Canola, Lobato, big brother Cima and the very talented younger Cima (who's now more experienced than the one year older Lonardi). I think Lonardi is fast, but I fear he might not even be their China guy. Now, Dainese, that's the real Italian sprint talent!

Well,boring but steady top5 placings in smaller races can easily bring Capiot 300 points. If he tops that off with a couple of wins,he might turn into a very good pick. Never really considered his in-team competition,though.
Regarding Lonardi,I fear only young Cima. Lobato and Canola are IMO not pure sprinters and have other focuses. Dainese looks promising too,but only on a continental team, he was just considered for my youth team.

I am still begrudging my total lack of finding the obvious pick that is Nibali......

 

[vladimir]

Always fascinating to check all the different teams and the popularity ranking. I was pleased to see that the highest ranked rider I had forgot this year was Lars Boom. I have had him in my team in previous years, and would probably have taken a place if I had checked him. For the more popular I have decided against are:
Remco Evenepoel - Gamble, but I trust that this season will be a learning season and that he will struggle to score many points
Fernando Gaviria - The sprinters field is wider than ever, so he needs to perform steadily in the spring classics to reach 1000+ points. On a weaker team and based on last year I find this quite unlikely. But if he is indeed a new Sagan I am toast
Peter Vakoc - There are always a few riders coming back from lenghty abscece that are very popular in this game. I am afraid that Vakoc will be another Malori.
Ilnur Zakarin - Very close to be in my team. But when finalizing my team I had to drop riders with my expected 2019 score less than 70% above 2018. Zakarin was on 69%....

Last year I had Laporte as a brilliant unique pick. Don't expect anything like this for my unique trio this year:
Valerio Conti - scored 262 points as a 21 year old in 2014. Not fullfilled his potential since (apart from an impressive stage win in la Vuelta) but I still believe he has the potential to be a very good rider in short stage races and hilly one day races. Afraid that he will spend most of the season working for Aru/Martin though
Edward Ravasi - also a younger talented Italian climber on UAE. Same fear as with Conti, but hope he will get his chances in breakaways and races like California/Poland
Yevgeni Gidich - More surprised that he was unique! Showed promising climbing skills in Croatia last year and is also quite fast. Still only 22 so should have a lot of improvement in him.

 

[barmaher]

I was close to picking Ravasi.

 

[Salvarani]

Wow, really expected Ewan to be on a lot more teams than that

 

[Total Package]

My team:

LANDA MEANA Mikel
NIBALI Vincenzo
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
ZAKARIN Ilnur
BOUHANNI Nacer
ARU Fabio
KITTEL Marcel
MARECZKO Jakub
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
FELLINE Fabio
SPILAK Simon
KENNAUGH Peter
O'CONNOR Ben
PLANCKAERT Baptiste
BAUHAUS Phil
SIVAKOV Pavel
PADUN Mark
THEUNS Edward
STANNARD Robert
DURBRIDGE Luke
HALVORSEN Kristoffer
MEINTJES Louis
CAVENDISH Mark
BAKELANTS Jan
GIBBONS Ryan
BARBIER Rudy
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin
BETTIOL Alberto
LIETAER Eliot
BOOM Lars
KÄMNA Lennard
EVENEPOEL Remco
VAKOC Petr

I can't wait for the season to start!

 

[armchairclimber]

After a season based largely upon Valverde and Alaphilippe's exploits I'm trying something different. Yes, obvious bounce back picks like Nibali and Kittel and 0 point no-brainers like Vakoc and Evenepoel. I've stuck with Gaviria again. He owes me a good year if he can learn to ride a bike.
For the most part though I've looked for riders who showed promise last year ... the future stars, I'm hoping. Oomen, Schachmann, Van Aert, Gaudu (again), Hodeg (again), Kanter (again) ... well, they're there to see. Lots of youth. I can't see it being a winning strategy but it's a romantic one. I'm low with popularity. I hope that doesn't necessarily translate into CQ points. If it does, I'm jiggered.

SCHACHMANN Maximilian 777
NIBALI Vincenzo 693
OOMEN Sam 648
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 602
VAN AERT Wout 597
HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose 558
CICCONE Giulio 426
POGACAR Tadej 361
PHILIPSEN Jasper 357
LAMBRECHT Bjorg 337
GAUDU David 299
KITTEL Marcel 296
MARECZKO Jakub 289
DUNBAR Eddie 278
HIRSCHI Marc 266
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 263
KANTER Max 200
VINCENT Léo 77
TANFIELD Harry 76
AFFINI Edoardo 41
CASTRILLO ZAPATER Jaime 40
TANFIELD Charlie
SCOTSON Callum 7
TIMMERMANS Justin 5
EVENEPOEL Remco 0
JOURNIAUX Axel 0
DAVY Clément 0
GUERNALEC Thibault 0
NISHIMURA Hiroki 0
SCHREURS Hamish 0
MORIN Emmanuel 0
VAKOC Petr 0
KÖNIG Leopold 0

 

[Salvarani]

Below is my team and some thoughts.

LANDA MEANA Mikel 779 - he was just okay last year and was a bit unfortunate with a crash that also ruined the last few months of the season. I’m expecting him to be better this season. Riding 2 GTs should mean more points, for GC and stages.

EWAN Caleb 776 - Im expecting wins, a lot of points and big year from this guy. So, I was quite surprised to only see him on 18 teams.

GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 602 - He was unlucky a lot last year. A lot of minor crashes that ended races. New team and hopefully feeling he got something to prove.

TRENTIN Matteo 581 - He was on a new team in 2018, and still made some results but he has a lot of potential to improve that looking at his 2017 points for example in comparison to last year. Can win some of the harder one-day races and classics. Last year: 11th E3, 7th GW and won European Championship for example. I think he can translate this into more wins this year.

ARU Fabio 400 - If Aru gets it together. He should be able to improve on those 400 points he managed last year. (like a lot of others also seem to think, seems like a must have)

POWER Robert 363 - 6th at SB and won two other one-day races. Changed team from Mitchelton-Scott to Sunweb for 2019. Only 23 years old. He is only on 5 teams, so really hope he gets it going at Sunweb

GAUDU David 299 - Hopefully will take another step this year.

KITTEL Marcel 296 - Seemed like a must have.

MARECZKO Jakub 289 - They dont have another sprinter, so expecting him to get a lot of opportunities and support. Will hopefully translate to points and a few wins.

CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 263 - Had a lot of time off to recoup. They finally know what has been bothering him, so Im hopeful for his return. Also seemed like a must have, if he comes back strong.

MÄDER Gino 255 - Has a lot of potential and I hope he will be given opportunities to shine, and on Dimension-Data he should get opportunities to ride for himself.

DE PLUS Laurens 226 - Hopefully takes another step this year.

O'CONNOR Ben 219 - Caught my eye during Tour Of The Alps last year with an impressive stage win. Then was kinda unlucky in the Giro with having to leave the race, and I believe he crashed on one of the stages before that. Was 12th on the GC at that time. I like the potential with him.

TOUZE Damien 209 - He has a good sprint. Won points classification in Tour de l'Avenir. Rides for Cofidis this year and I think he will be able to get points with that calender.

KANTER Max 200 - Another young rider with a good sprint.

BAUHAUS Phil 196 - Changed from Sunweb to Bahrain Merida this season. I think he will be able to improve on those 196p from last year.

ANTUNES Amaro Manuel Reposo 196 - CCC don’t have that many climbers or guys for GC, so choosing him made sense to me. He gonna be their guy for that, or he will be able to go in breaks and for stage wins.

VLASOV Alexander 180 - Young rider with potential.

KNOX James 165 - A shot in the dark honestly.

HAMILTON Lucas 149 - Had some minor results last year that was enough for me to pick him.

FRANKINY Kilian 138 - From BMC to Groupama this year. Young climber with potential. My only unique pick

RIABUSHENKO Aliaksandr 109 - Didn’t show much last year, but could have been a learning curve on a team that didn’t show much last year. He has potential to improve a lot on those 109 points from last year I think.

CONCI Nicola 98 - Trek has a trio of talented young Italians with Ciccone, Moschetti and Conci. Opted for Conci as the others was a bit too expensive this year I thought. Moschetti was on my team last year though. Picked him for 0 or under 10 points at that time. Maybe a mistake not picking him again this year

GIBBONS Ryan 96 - Has a good sprint and should be able to improve on 96 points. Rides for Dimension Data and should get chances.

BARBIER Rudy 90 - Really bad year last year on A2GR, only managed to get 90 points. Dont know why it was that bad? Now rides for Israel Cycling Academy. Think he should be able to improve on those 90 points.

MCLAY Daniel 88 - Should be able to improve from last year.

VERVAEKE Louis 66 - Still only 25. A lot of races he left and had to DNF or DNS right in the end of them, last year. Catalunya was his biggest achievement last season. I think he can get some better results this year. Will probably be riding in a supporting role most of the times though.

ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves 64 - A guy with potential.

BETTIOL Alberto 50 - Back to his old team and must do better than last year. Seems like a must have.

RIVERA SERRANO Kevin 20 - Next Ivan Sosa at Androni? Maybe.

OSORIO CARVAJAL Alejandro 17 - New Colombian star? Who knows. Showed potential at Tour de l'Avenir and for so few points? Why not pick him. Now at Nippo Fantini for this season also.

MUÑOZ LANCHEROS Cristian Camilo 13 - Good climber. Young. Colombian. Now he is at UAE for this season.

VAKOC Petr 0 - Hopefully comes back this year and wins a couple of races. Chose him last year for like 400 points before the horrible crash happened and for 0 points this year, I had to have him on my team again.


Seems like a lot of people have made that Porte x Nibali combination, and not chose Ewan for example. I wonder if that was the correct way to go or not...

 

[vladimir]

Re:

Below is my team and some thoughts.



FRANKINY Kilian 138 - From BMC to Groupama this year. Young climber with potential. My only unique pick

Well you nearly didn't have any unique picks :razz: Frankiny was together with Zakarin the two riders that was closest to be in my team. And Frankiny was probably the closest of the two, as I would simply replaced Pöstlberger with him without having to do any other changes

 

[tobydawq]

Popularity part 2:

I don't know if you have an easy way of finding out on which teams the mistakes have been made, but I spot an EVENPOEL Remco, an EVENEPOEL Remco (a space after the first name), an INTXAUSTI Beñat (no Elorriaga) and two KONIG Leopold (no umlaut) in your list.

 

[Kryvo]

1 NIBALI Vincenzo
2 VAN AERT Wout
3 VAN DER POEL Mathieu
4 MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe
5 BOUHANNI Nacer
6 CICCONE Giulio
7 ARU Fabio
8 TOLHOEK Antwan
9 KUSS Sepp
10 KITTEL Marcel
11 KUDUS Merhawi Gebremedhin
12 CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban
13 FELLINE Fabio
14 O'CONNOR Ben
15 DE PLUS Laurens
16 ASGREEN Kasper
17 SIVAKOV Pavel
18 THEUNS Edward
19 STANNARD Robert
20 HALVORSEN Kristoffer
21 MOSCHETTI Matteo
22 MEINTJES Louis
23 BAKELANTS Jan
24 RODRIGUEZ GARAICOECHEA Oscar
25 BARBIER Rudy
26 SWIFT Ben
27 BETTIOL Alberto
28 STALLAERT Joeri
29 FERASSE Thibault
30 RASTELLI Luca
31 KÖNIG Leopold
32 VAKOC Petr
33 EVENEPOEL Remco


I had a first draft of my team (with lots of riders that had a bad 2018 season). However, I decided to change most of them and add young riders that may have a great season. I enjoyed watching them last year, so I decided to include them in my team:

O'Connor, Daniel Martínez, Ciccone, Tolhoek, Kuss, De Plus.

Of course, Van Aert and MVDP are also in my team.

Kudus, my captain.

Luca Rastelli, unique pick. Go Go Go!

 

[greenedge]

omg haha so after 8 years of this game starting with the Aussie nationals, I only searched "Australian National Road Race" in December to set the start date... and just realized now that the New Zealand TT nats happened a few hours ago!! So for the first time ever, this game starts after CQ points have been awarded :redface: :surprised:

I'll be sure to check that next year; I await the barrage of team changes that come with the competitive advantage of knowing who got those 15 points.

30 points, 30 points for Patrick Bevin winning the ITT.
Maybe young McCormick coming in third would've been a good pick this year?

I doubt it, McCormick is a talented guy, but usually the small Aussie teams barely do any UCI races. Last year BridgeLane's best scoring rider was Alexander Evans with 51 points

edit: he is also too old for Avenir, U23 worlds and stuff like that, nor will he be picked up as a stagiare elsewhere - so on from now his point scoring potential will probably be limited more or less to New Zealand Classic, Herald Sun Tour and the Oceanian Championships.

They've merged with Avanti, so they'll have more potential to ride in Asia than Mobius did last year.

 

[Simurgh]

Feeling so dumb, that I didn't dare to ask whether riders not on the list (zero pointers) were allowed...turns out, that I made it more difficult for myself..Well, there is always next year!

NIBALI Vincenzo 693 - A must-have, I dare say (along with Kittel and Chaves). Even though I think, his best days are behind him, he is still among the very best, and he will show that this year.
KITTEL Marcel 296 - A real bargain, but not one I would consider an entirely safe bet, reason being that he is riding at Katusha, who has had a horrible year. But if he (and the team) bounces back, he is still the fastest of them all.
GAUDU David 299 - Nice showings especially by the end of the year, so I have faith in him continuing his upward trajectory.
NIZZOLO Giacomo 444 - Hoping that he will be better than this year.
CAVENDISH Mark 125 - Nothing rational about this, because I don't believe that he will be good, let alone getting the couple of Tour stages, that he wants, but I hope that he can end his career on a high (or at least not this low)
O'CONNOR Ben 219 - He was good in the spring, and he will probably improve even more.
BATTAGLIN Enrico 324 - somewhat a risk, hopefully with great rewards. Or at least break even.
MOSCHETTI Matteo 144 - He's gonna be great, also one of Contador's youngsters haha
HAGEN Carl Fredrik 249 - his story has a similarity with Roglics, being a former winter sports athlete.
FELLINE Fabio 257 - I like this guy, and he has done well in the past years, so why not?
LAMBRECHT Bjorg 337 - hoping he can step up this year, and he is still very young, so there ought to be room for improvement!
KÜNG Stefan 437 - he's gonna be so good for FDJ and Thibaut, I am sure of it!
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 1118 - I couldn't afford Pinot, and I was not too sure that he could improve his points tally that much anyway, but even though it has been almost three years ago, we last saw proof of Nairo being the 2nd best GC-rider in the world, I hope that his return to his old approach in training/spring etc. can pave the way for the return of the vintage Nairo, who was only surpassed by Froome and Contador (Tirreno 2014, and that's all I have to say )
THEUNS Edward 191 - had a bad year at Sunweb, and I think that his change of scenery (back to Trek) will do him good.
PANTANO GOMEZ Jarlinson 157 - His potential is so much more than this. Still remember his 2016 Tour and 2017 helping Contador.
SIVAKOV Pavel 195 - his entrance wasn't like Bernals, but he is still a great talent. Question is, whether SKY will give him freedom to score some points for me?
DE PLUS Laurens 226 - noticed him last year, and he is gonna be even better, I am sure of it.
MARTIN Tony 248 - He will be a lot better with Jumbo now, mentoring and getting results at the same time.
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 263 - A bargain, and I am certain that he will bounce back from that horrible Giro, where he suddenly got sick after a rest day (I think it was).
ARU Fabio 400 - Never really been fond of him, but this decline has been sad to watch, so I hope that he can improve this year. Nibali's heir? Definitely not, but a good rider capable of doing better than last year? I think so.

And these couple of guys, mostly because they were cheap and have a hope (not grounded in something really substantial), that they will prove themselves. Truthfully, I consider them longshots, where I hope for the best.
GAUTIER Cyril 96
DE BUYST Jasper 233
DEWULF Stan 101
BETTIOL Alberto 50
THOMAS Benjamin 103
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 61
ROSA Diego 200

 

[jsem94]

Ah, was going to make a team but I ended up forgetting. Haven't done too well previously anyway but will be fun to see what my shortlist would have done.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Despite my team being mostly picked by heart I appear to have a nice mix of popular riders and not so popular ones. No unique picks. Might be a good recipe for success, who knows.

My popular picks:
NIBALI Vincenzo 693 87
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 602 83
ZAKARIN Ilnur 473 69
BOUHANNI Nacer 441 51
ARU Fabio 400 96
GAUDU David 299 57
KITTEL Marcel 296 99
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 263 90
FELLINE Fabio 257 63
THEUNS Edward 191 61
BETTIOL Alberto 50 92
EVENEPOEL Remco 0 89

My slightly popular picks:
PADUN Mark 191 30
HALVORSEN Kristoffer 162 35
MOSCHETTI Matteo 144 28
BARBIER Rudy 90 36
ROWE Luke 70 28

My (relatively) rare picks:
BARGUIL Warren 447 12
One of the riders I thought most about and gave me a real headache. Realistically, he isn't going to double his score, but as the leader of his team I could see him reach his 2017 score again. He is a rider I really like and in this points range was the only pick I fancied that wasn't on my team already. In other words, there was a Barguil-sized gap on my team.

KÜNG Stefan 437 14
One of my favorite riders, and finally he has left the nest and will have freedom to pursue his goals. Of course it helps that he's now on my favorite team as well and hopefully he will have a breakthrough in the spring classics.

WALSCHEID Maximilian 389 6
Another rider that gave a headache, too expensive for the type of rider he is, i.e. a talented but not (yet) top sprinter, however I saw some performances last year that gave me the feeling he can do more and do better.

CATTANEO Mattia 295 2
Wow, I am shocked he is a near unique pick, but I kinda understand it, I believe he scored almost half of his current score in the last week and a half of his season and he is now probably a little too expensive. However, it also gives me the feeling he can score much better if he is more consistent, as evidenced as well by his 2017 season. I wanted either him or Masnada on my team as well, and Masnada got even more expensive in his final race, so it was an easy choice.

VENTURINI Clément 183 4
I still believe in Venturini. He doesn't have much competition on AG2R but despite that, he had an underwhelming season last year. I believe he can do better and am looking forward to cheering him on.

STANNARD Robert 172 14
I'll admit, he got on my team when I was still under the impression he would be a 2nd year neo pro. And I never considered removing him when I found out he would be a 1st year neo. Probably a bit too expensive, but at the same time he is so talented and seems to be pretty allround as well, with a good sprint in his legs, decent climbing skills and a good TT.

GARCIA CORTINA Ivan 153 14
Was a no-brainer for me, very strong rider, I expected a breakthrough last year but it didn't happen, but what he showed made me even more convinced he can become a real star.

HAMILTON Lucas 149 10
Was one of the most promising talents when he became pro last year but struggled, in fact most of his points came from the Hammer Series. However, the talent is still there, I am sure of it, and a difficult first year as a pro isn't that rare.

FABBRO Matteo 116 10
Very talented pocket climber, and I'm sure if he hadn't scored those 62 points in Turkey in October he'd be on many more teams. He needs to take a small step ahead and he'll easily double or even triple his score.

VLIEGEN Loïc 109 11
Pretty surprised he was only picked by 10 other people, but on the other hand he was a late addition to my team because I'd overlooked him. Was considered a big talent several years ago but had a lot of problems with his health. I like Wanty as a team for him and think he'll have a nice calendar and plenty freedom.

RIABUSHENKO Aliaksandr 109 9
His 2018 wasn't spectacular, but his 2nd place on that stage in Pais Vasco convinced me: he has talent and if it is nurtured, he could do great things. UAE may not be the best team for this, but we'll see.

CONCI Nicola 98 8
Another rider similar to Riabushenko and Fabbro, in how he made his way onto my team. Out of the 3, he had the most consistently high level. No real stand-out performance, but I am eager to see how he develops this year.

TANFIELD Harry 76 7
A little old for a neo pro, but that means he is also stronger and more experienced. Good TTer, decently talented, seems like a good bloke, was a no-brainer to me.

CIMA Imerio 66 3
Call me crazy, but he was one of the first riders on my team. I wanted to include him last year, didn't, it worked out okay because he needed an extra year to find his way in the pro peloton. Very young still (turned 21 at the end of October) and already, he has quite fast legs. If he gets a full-blown Asian calendar, with some minor Italian races mixed in, watch out for him.

AFFINI Edoardo 41 13
Another easy pick for me. Very strong, very good TTer. The kind of neo pro I like.

ALBANESE Vincenzo 38 9
Yes, I still have faith and am not giving up. Dubbed by some as the new Sagan, I am not expecting him to ever reach that level, but I am convinced there is definitely quite a bit of talent in him that hasn't yet come out. Come on Vincenzo, prove me right.

Popular riders I didn't pick:
MEINTJES Louis 79 - Too boring, not feeling it.
CAVENDISH Mark 79 - Don't believe in it.
VAKOC Petr 73 - Sad to say, but feel he will be the next Malori. Hope I'm wrong.
BOOM Lars 66 - Refuse to cheer for him.
SWIFT Ben 53 - Was on my team until the San Juan amendments made me 2 points over budget and his spot went to Rowe. A shame because I like him and think he is a more interesting pick than Rowe (who only ever seems to score in the same 3 or 4 races).
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 46 - Looked at him, but really don't see it.
BAKELANTS Jan 38 - Not really I rider I can get excited about.
KÄMNA Lennard 38 - I might be wrong, but I was under the impression he had some motivational issues last year.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

EWAN Caleb 776 - Im expecting wins, a lot of points and big year from this guy. So, I was quite surprised to only see him on 18 teams.

Strongly considered Ewan as well as I also expect a great year for him, but he was just a bit too expensive for me. I wonder where his ceiling is as I have a hard time seeing him score much more than 1000.

KNOX James 165 - A shot in the dark honestly.

I think he could be good. Nice pick.

FRANKINY Kilian 138 - From BMC to Groupama this year. Young climber with potential. My only unique pick

VERY nice unique pick, I'm jealous. I strongly considered him as well and think he could have a breakthrough year.

CONCI Nicola 98 - Trek has a trio of talented young Italians with Ciccone, Moschetti and Conci. Opted for Conci as the others was a bit too expensive this year I thought. Moschetti was on my team last year though. Picked him for 0 or under 10 points at that time. Maybe a mistake not picking him again this year

I wanted all three and ended up with just Conci and Moschetti. I am expecting a good year for Conci. Moschetti is obviously very talented and I followed him a lot last year so I felt I had to include him, but to be honest I am not too sure he will be a great pick. So a bit surprised he is on so many teams.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Popularity part 2:

I don't know if you have an easy way of finding out on which teams the mistakes have been made, but I spot an EVENPOEL Remco, an EVENEPOEL Remco (a space after the first name), an INTXAUSTI Beñat (no Elorriaga) and two KONIG Leopold (no umlaut) in your list.

This is what happens when people don't copy the names... a lot of extra work for skidmark

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

A few ideas for this year:

I'm banking on the 'Greipel effect'. His presence on a team that normally stirs up the French races should increase the likelyhood of a lot of French and Belgian races ending in bunch sprints, hence the pro-conti sprinters. And they all had bad years which are likely to be improved on anyway.

And I'm also trying to cash in on the auto-wildcard system for next year. If the strong pro-conti teams have their wits about them, they'll all employ the Wanty strategy of carpet bombing the calendar with race days, getting as many points as possible. And it'll largely be up to the big hitters like Barguil, Vichot, Bouhanni, Coquard etc to get the job done. Michael Boogerd, DS of Roompot, has actually stated that they'll race more structured this year in order to score as many points as possible. Other DS'es should think likewise.

My omission of Kittel, Cavendish, Bauhaus etc comes down to a few things, among them the extinction of stage races where pure sprinters can score GC points. A lot of the big scoring seasons by pure sprinters have significant contributions from Qatar, Dubai (and Worlds) etc. Their team also plays a major role. Some teams, like Bahrain and Sunweb, just don't race 1.1 races, where all the sprinter points are. Bauhaus could finally find a way to stay healthy and have a great season but score very few CQ points. As for Kittel, nothing has really changed this year: Crap leadout, crap climbing and positioning skills. Sure, he could win quite a few flat stages here and there, but now that he has no Dubai GC points, it's not gonna amount to much. Kittel is not the kind of guy who grits his teeth to hold the wheel of Maxim Vantomme across some windy Flandrian country road in order to sprint for 4th behind the breakaway in GP Jef Scherens. I don't care if he drags his fingers through his perfect hair on the TDF podium a few times; that's not where the points are. I'll be surprised if he reaches 600.

Very interesting considerations! Thanks for sharing! Especially the Greipel effect sounds intriguing.