This is my third year participating in this game.
For the past 2 seasons my uninspired strategy was getting lots of consistent guys who had a relatively good chance of doubling their previous CQ score. I believe that’s a great strategy for an average-to-good team (I finished between the 20th and the 40th position in both years) but gives you zero chances of winning the whole thing.
This year I changed my strategy a bit, especially for my top picks. I went for riders who can win and win big. Most of them could score less than last year (which was a nightmare for me when picking riders in the past) but they can also trash their previous scores if all stars align.
So here’s my team.
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley (1130 points) - 26 picks
A once in a lifetime talent, the kind of talent who could win a Giro as a rookie. Had 1000+ points in his first WT season while often riding for others. I know it sounds crazy but I believe there’s room to score well over 2000 points. This guy has everything and more: team, recovery, climbing, time trialling, smarts.
NIBALI Vincenzo (693) - 87
Probably my most conservative pick. I don’t think he’s past it, every single word I’ve heard from him since the season ended screamed confidence. This Bahrein budget issue is no good news, but it could mean he’s fighting for a contract.
VAN AERT Wout (597) - 16
We’ve only scratched the surface of his potential last year. He’ll ride for a WT team in 2019 which means better preparation, better support, better attention to details (and Jumbo was a goldmine last year). A risky pick at that price, although his skillset is wide enough to score throughout the whole year.
VAN DER POEL Mathieu (539) - 19
I’m quoting skidmark here: his efficiency last year was crazy. I don’t know if this will translate to being as consistent on a tighter schedule but I don’t wanna miss the boat in case it does. He’s fast enough to beat competent sprinters at any level and he’ll be fighting for a lot more points this year. Exceptional talent with a chance to top 1500 points.
ZAKARIN Ilnur (473) - 69
Not much explanation needed here. Unless you think Katusha will be as bad as last year. Spoiler: I don’t.
ARU Fabio (400) - 95
This is actually the pick I like the least in my team. With Saronni stepping down UAE might be a lil better but it still looks like a mess. I’m taking a flier on Aru anyway, he can score 1000+ if he goes back to the basics.
LAMBRECHT Bjorg (337) - 22
One thing I like about this guy: he’s eager, even impatient at times. Setting is perfect at Lotto, with countless chances to ride for himself, especially in one week long races. Was the first guy I selected on my long list back in November, never left.
KITTEL Marcel (296) - 98
I can see Squire’s point on Kittel but I just couldn’t cut him from my team.
MCNULTY Brandon (273) - 7
I knew this would be a rare pick, but whenever I watched this guy race last year he was sensational. Admittedly, this could be the pick that ruins my game but I felt I needed to be bold to have a shot. It was a coin toss between him and Gaudu, and I dropped the frenchman just a couple of hours before sending my team in. Why did I do that? I feel like Gaudu is a great talent (I had him last year) but he will go through some more growing pains and the schedule won’t help him. McNulty on the other hand will ride a similar schedule to last year in a very protected environment and with zero pressure.
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban (263) - 89
Health seems fine, which is all I needed to know.
FELLINE Fabio (257) - 63
I didn’t really consider him until I read an interview where he said he felt completely healthy after a while.
O'CONNOR Ben (219) - 36
Seriously what’s not to like about this kid? 23 years older with top20s in TdU and Catalunya, wins a stage in Trentino, goes toe to toe with the best in the business for almost 20 days in the Giro and then crashes out. He’ll be good.
TOUZE Damien (209) - 8
Had to choose between him and Cosnefroy for my Madouas’ 2019 wannabe. I believe Cosnefroy is the better talent but Touze is a tad faster. There are a few mouths to feed at Cofidis but also a ton of .1 races to score points in France. I’m confident.
PLANCKAERT Baptiste (206) - 27
Kind of a no brainer for me. Goes back to the level he belongs to, will ride a ton of one day races and stop wasting time in GTs/one week races.
BAUHAUS Phil (196) - 37
One of my last picks, can’t say I’m happy about it. I guess it’s boom or bust.
THEUNS Edward (191) - 61
Sunweb was clearly not the right fit.
PADUN Mark (191) - 30
Wanted to pick him last year but thought it was early, now I’m fully on the bandwagon. A beast at U23 level, huge engine, competent on all terrains. I don’t know how many opportunities he’ll get to ride for himself but I believe he’s on the verge of breaking through.
GARCIA CORTINA Ivan (153) - 14
I’ll keep picking him until he wins something big, which probably means I’ll pick him forever. Heart over head.
MEINTJES Louis (141) - 79
Bores me to death, but I can’t deny the ceiling.
CAVENDISH Mark (125) - 79
I didn’t have him on my team until the last day. Then I told myself: f*ck it, I want one last ride with the old man.
TORRES AGUDELO Rodolfo Andres (111) - 1
Can’t believe this is my unique pick, which is actually my first unique pick ever. I like the move to Team Illuminate: they race a ton of .1 asian races and don’t have any other leader. I mean Jorge Castiblanco and Martin Laas scored over 100 points last year on that team. Torres will kill it at that level, unless there’s something I don’t know about his health.
VAN ASBROECK Tom (95) - 19
At first I wanted no part of the ICA crowd of 3rd tier sprinters, but Van Asbroeck will mainly ride on home soil. He has scored big in belgian semi-classics before, so why not?
SWIFT Ben (72) - 53, ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin (61) - 46, BETTIOL Alberto (50) - 92
You know the drill here.
KUMP Marko (54) - 26
His Adria Mobil seasons don’t lie. He’s tailor made for that level.
BANASZEK Alan (40) - 8
There goes another rider I absolutely wanted last year but couldn’t fit in the budget. Turns out he disappointed big time in 2018 and is now much cheaper. He DNFed an astonishing amount of races last year which is obviously a big concern, but he is strong and fast. A change of scenery might do wonders for him, especially if Caja Rural races a few of those .1 french races.
KÄMNA Lennard (37) - 38
I knew about the motivational issues, but too big of a talent to pass at that price.
SENNI Manuel (34) - 14
I’ve got kind of a fetish for reaching precisely 7500 points and he was the rider I liked the most in that price range anyway. Broke a leg during last year’s Giro and his season was gone at that point, He’s out of contract at the end of the year, which is a bonus considering his last year at BMC.
BOOM Lars (37) - 66
No explanation needed.
RIVERA SERRANO Kevin (20) - 30
A gamble, since he was dreadful last year. Savio loves him though and he’ll get plenty of opportunities.
EVENEPOEL Remco (0) - 86, VAKOC Petr (0) - 73
Not expecting much from either.
I'll post some more thoughts on riders I didn't pick later.
For the past 2 seasons my uninspired strategy was getting lots of consistent guys who had a relatively good chance of doubling their previous CQ score. I believe that’s a great strategy for an average-to-good team (I finished between the 20th and the 40th position in both years) but gives you zero chances of winning the whole thing.
This year I changed my strategy a bit, especially for my top picks. I went for riders who can win and win big. Most of them could score less than last year (which was a nightmare for me when picking riders in the past) but they can also trash their previous scores if all stars align.
So here’s my team.
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley (1130 points) - 26 picks
A once in a lifetime talent, the kind of talent who could win a Giro as a rookie. Had 1000+ points in his first WT season while often riding for others. I know it sounds crazy but I believe there’s room to score well over 2000 points. This guy has everything and more: team, recovery, climbing, time trialling, smarts.
NIBALI Vincenzo (693) - 87
Probably my most conservative pick. I don’t think he’s past it, every single word I’ve heard from him since the season ended screamed confidence. This Bahrein budget issue is no good news, but it could mean he’s fighting for a contract.
VAN AERT Wout (597) - 16
We’ve only scratched the surface of his potential last year. He’ll ride for a WT team in 2019 which means better preparation, better support, better attention to details (and Jumbo was a goldmine last year). A risky pick at that price, although his skillset is wide enough to score throughout the whole year.
VAN DER POEL Mathieu (539) - 19
I’m quoting skidmark here: his efficiency last year was crazy. I don’t know if this will translate to being as consistent on a tighter schedule but I don’t wanna miss the boat in case it does. He’s fast enough to beat competent sprinters at any level and he’ll be fighting for a lot more points this year. Exceptional talent with a chance to top 1500 points.
ZAKARIN Ilnur (473) - 69
Not much explanation needed here. Unless you think Katusha will be as bad as last year. Spoiler: I don’t.
ARU Fabio (400) - 95
This is actually the pick I like the least in my team. With Saronni stepping down UAE might be a lil better but it still looks like a mess. I’m taking a flier on Aru anyway, he can score 1000+ if he goes back to the basics.
LAMBRECHT Bjorg (337) - 22
One thing I like about this guy: he’s eager, even impatient at times. Setting is perfect at Lotto, with countless chances to ride for himself, especially in one week long races. Was the first guy I selected on my long list back in November, never left.
KITTEL Marcel (296) - 98
I can see Squire’s point on Kittel but I just couldn’t cut him from my team.
MCNULTY Brandon (273) - 7
I knew this would be a rare pick, but whenever I watched this guy race last year he was sensational. Admittedly, this could be the pick that ruins my game but I felt I needed to be bold to have a shot. It was a coin toss between him and Gaudu, and I dropped the frenchman just a couple of hours before sending my team in. Why did I do that? I feel like Gaudu is a great talent (I had him last year) but he will go through some more growing pains and the schedule won’t help him. McNulty on the other hand will ride a similar schedule to last year in a very protected environment and with zero pressure.
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban (263) - 89
Health seems fine, which is all I needed to know.
FELLINE Fabio (257) - 63
I didn’t really consider him until I read an interview where he said he felt completely healthy after a while.
O'CONNOR Ben (219) - 36
Seriously what’s not to like about this kid? 23 years older with top20s in TdU and Catalunya, wins a stage in Trentino, goes toe to toe with the best in the business for almost 20 days in the Giro and then crashes out. He’ll be good.
TOUZE Damien (209) - 8
Had to choose between him and Cosnefroy for my Madouas’ 2019 wannabe. I believe Cosnefroy is the better talent but Touze is a tad faster. There are a few mouths to feed at Cofidis but also a ton of .1 races to score points in France. I’m confident.
PLANCKAERT Baptiste (206) - 27
Kind of a no brainer for me. Goes back to the level he belongs to, will ride a ton of one day races and stop wasting time in GTs/one week races.
BAUHAUS Phil (196) - 37
One of my last picks, can’t say I’m happy about it. I guess it’s boom or bust.
THEUNS Edward (191) - 61
Sunweb was clearly not the right fit.
PADUN Mark (191) - 30
Wanted to pick him last year but thought it was early, now I’m fully on the bandwagon. A beast at U23 level, huge engine, competent on all terrains. I don’t know how many opportunities he’ll get to ride for himself but I believe he’s on the verge of breaking through.
GARCIA CORTINA Ivan (153) - 14
I’ll keep picking him until he wins something big, which probably means I’ll pick him forever. Heart over head.
MEINTJES Louis (141) - 79
Bores me to death, but I can’t deny the ceiling.
CAVENDISH Mark (125) - 79
I didn’t have him on my team until the last day. Then I told myself: f*ck it, I want one last ride with the old man.
TORRES AGUDELO Rodolfo Andres (111) - 1
Can’t believe this is my unique pick, which is actually my first unique pick ever. I like the move to Team Illuminate: they race a ton of .1 asian races and don’t have any other leader. I mean Jorge Castiblanco and Martin Laas scored over 100 points last year on that team. Torres will kill it at that level, unless there’s something I don’t know about his health.
VAN ASBROECK Tom (95) - 19
At first I wanted no part of the ICA crowd of 3rd tier sprinters, but Van Asbroeck will mainly ride on home soil. He has scored big in belgian semi-classics before, so why not?
SWIFT Ben (72) - 53, ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin (61) - 46, BETTIOL Alberto (50) - 92
You know the drill here.
KUMP Marko (54) - 26
His Adria Mobil seasons don’t lie. He’s tailor made for that level.
BANASZEK Alan (40) - 8
There goes another rider I absolutely wanted last year but couldn’t fit in the budget. Turns out he disappointed big time in 2018 and is now much cheaper. He DNFed an astonishing amount of races last year which is obviously a big concern, but he is strong and fast. A change of scenery might do wonders for him, especially if Caja Rural races a few of those .1 french races.
KÄMNA Lennard (37) - 38
I knew about the motivational issues, but too big of a talent to pass at that price.
SENNI Manuel (34) - 14
I’ve got kind of a fetish for reaching precisely 7500 points and he was the rider I liked the most in that price range anyway. Broke a leg during last year’s Giro and his season was gone at that point, He’s out of contract at the end of the year, which is a bonus considering his last year at BMC.
BOOM Lars (37) - 66
No explanation needed.
RIVERA SERRANO Kevin (20) - 30
A gamble, since he was dreadful last year. Savio loves him though and he’ll get plenty of opportunities.
EVENEPOEL Remco (0) - 86, VAKOC Petr (0) - 73
Not expecting much from either.
I'll post some more thoughts on riders I didn't pick later.
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram