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Can't find mine either, so I assume it's due to it being a work in progress rather than an error.@skidmark maybe I am extremely blind but I cant find my team in the "rank popularity" tab. If it still under work, then no worries.
My team this year. Maybe One of the teams with the most popular riders on it!?
I can’t remember if that is a good or bad thing looking back at the previous years...
....
SAGAN Peter |
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel |
VAN AVERMAET Greg |
DENNIS Rohan |
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley |
THOMAS Geraint |
LUTSENKO Alexey |
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando |
TRENTIN Matteo |
BARDET Romain |
NAESEN Oliver |
MOLLEMA Bauke |
TURGIS Anthony |
FORMOLO Davide |
BOL Cees |
GILBERT Philippe |
TEUNISSEN Mike |
BUCHMANN Emanuel |
HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose |
RIVERA SERRANO Kevin |
POLITT Nils |
SARREAU Marc |
VANMARCKE Sep |
NEILANDS Krists |
KRUIJSWIJK Steven |
PIDCOCK Thomas |
BEVIN Patrick |
LATOUR Pierre |
JANSEN Amund Grøndahl |
FROOME Chris |
LAWLESS Christopher |
CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander |
ARCHIBALD John |
For tomorrow, I have Gallopin, Laporte, Lawless, Langeveld, Trentin adn Latour.
Let's go!
I see your reckoning! Take as many riders as possible who start the only race of the season... here comes your overall win...
Good point... there is one pick for Roniel Campos Lucena. DJ Sprtsch is out in front already. Ten teams already off the mark.I should just have picked the top 33 riders on the current table. They have 446 points combined. That would have given me a nice head start and some glorious weeks in front.
My main argument against Kristoff is that he tends to score a lot points in .1 and HC races, and I'm really not sure how many of them will go through.I have to say I'm thrilled to see Kristoff only being picked by 14 teams. A guy who could triple his score from 500 if he just does what he usually does (and also has a good Worlds course) was a no-brainer to me, yet here we are.
IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Ion | 8 |
WALLS Matthew | 7 |
BOUDAT Thomas | 5 |
HAVIK Piotr | 5 |
JULES Justin | 5 |
BARBIER Pierre | 3 |
So, who's the most important and decisive riders to look out for? I decided to come up with an approach to study this, and while the approach probably isn't methodically sound, I still thought it was be fun to share it with you.
What I did was that I looked at the popularity table and the 2020 score. The higher the 2020 price, the more important it is to have that particular rider perform well. Regarding the popularity score, I figured that if all teams have picked a certain rider, he has no impact on the game - and the same is true if noone picked that rider. Hence, the closer the rider is to have been picked by half the teams, the more impact he will have on the game.
Therefore I substracted the number of times each rider was picked by 46,5 (half the teams: 93/2 = 46,5) and divided the rider's price with this number. The higher the result, the more impactful the rider is.
An example: Miguel Angel Lopez was picked by 15 teams and had a price of 655. His "impact value" is then 655 / (46,5 - 15) = 20,8 (he just didn't make cut to the top 20 most impactful riders).
With 47 picks (and hence 46 non-picks), Bardet perfectly divides the cq gamers in two equally large camps and is by far the most crucial pick using this method. Not surprisingly, Evenepoel and Sagan are next, while Naesen and Alaphilippe round off the top 5. Surprising for me is that Pogacar and Demare makes the list, having been picked by only two and one teams respectively.
This is the top 20:
Bardet: 716
Evenepoel: 122,4
Sagan: 90,2
Naesen: 76,4
Alaphilippe: 64
Pogacar: 45,9
Van Aert: 41
Van Avermaet: 37,3
Trentin: 35,2
Van der Poel: 33,1
Higuita: 30,5
Hirschi: 30
Thomas: 28,1
Gaviria: 27,6
Mattews: 27,2
Demare: 27,2
Vlasov: 26,1
Lutsenko: 25,6
Pinot: 23,8
Sivakov: 23,7
Again, a different (and likely better) approach could have been used as well, but this was what I came up with - take it for what it is
My team this year. Maybe One of the teams with the most popular riders on it!?
I can’t remember if that is a good or bad thing looking back at the previous years...
EVENEPOEL Remco
SAGAN Peter
THOMAS Geraint
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley
WELLENS Tim
LUTSENKO Alexey
TEUNS Dylan
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
TRENTIN Matteo
SIVAKOV Pavel
HAIG Jack
BARDET Romain
LEKNESSUND Andreas
MOLLEMA Bauke
TEUNISSEN Mike
BUCHMANN Emanuel
LAPORTE Christophe
JUNGELS Bob
VINGEGAARD RASMUSSEN Jonas
POLITT Nils
BJERG Mikkel
VANMARCKE Sep
MOSCON Gianni
SOSA CUERVO Ivan Ramiro
PIDCOCK Thomas
KRUIJSWIJK Steven
LATOUR Pierre
TERPSTRA Niki
FROOME Chris
CAVENDISH Mark
VANSEVENANT Mauri
DE PLUS Laurens
UMBA LOPEZ Abner Santiago
Yeah, for sure the approach can be improved upon and yours seems good! It was honestly just an idea I quickly came up with to have some sort of method in determining the most crucial picks.Interesting approach. However, it is much too sensitive with riders picked very close to half of the teams (as you can see with Bardet). If another rider had been picked just one more time than him, he would have had to have a cost of three times that of Bardet to get as high a score as him through this formula (and what would we have done if there had been an even number of teams and one was chosen by exactly half of the teams)?
Something needs to be done with the denominator.
Maybe we can take a random number, let's try with 2, and add it to the numerical difference of 46.5 and the number of picks:
So it would go like this: price tag/(2+|46.5-number of picks|).
In this way we wouldn't see such a weird pattern for riders picked close to half of the time, because the denominator is kept firmly away from 0.
This way, Bardet gets 143.2 points, Evenepoel 96.6, Sagan 73.0 and Naesen 52.9, while all others of course lose a few points through being divided by a number which is 2 higher than before.
Yes...feels like I have cheated. But didn't someone mention he signed for a Portuguese team? Maybe it was not true.Good point... there is one pick for Roniel Campos Lucena. DJ Sprtsch is out in front already. Ten teams already off the mark.
Time to present my team and thoughts.
ALAPHILIPPE Julian: 1247 points, 27 teams
Absolute must pick in my opinion. Having the option to pick a 1200 points rider who's very likely to double his points next season is very rare and having a 1200 points rider double his points is much more valuable than having a 600 points rider double his points. I'm very happy that he's selected by relatively few teams.
SAGAN Peter: 767 points, 55 teams
I'm a bit surprised he's picked by this many teams to be honest as he's a bit of a gamble in my opinion as he has been on the decline the last two seasons. However, I just couldn't resist picking a rider who has averaged more than 2000 points the last 10 seasons and lost a good chunk of points deciding not to do the classics campaign last season. He has become a slow starter who needs a lot of kilometres in his legs, so I'm happy to see that he's doing a lot of races this year, including two Grand Tours.
YATES Adam: 592 points, 13 teams
Probably the biggest gamble on my team, and you could argue that there were better options in his price range. However, my hope is that he's focusing on one day races and week long stage races this season, as he has shown that he's one of the absolute best one week stage racers in the peloton and he has also shown that he's a great classics rider. Fingers crossed!
KRISTOFF Alexander: 519 points, 14 teams
Originally not in my team, Kristoff made his way into it when I decided to ditch Evenepoel, but now I'm quite happy that I picked him. He has averaged more than 1700 points the last 7 seasons, and he hasn't really shown signs of decline yet. His schedule is absolutely insane for a massive points haul.
VAN AVERMAET Greg: 503 points, 3 teams
Quite a similar story to that of Kristoff. He also only made it to the team when I dropped Evenepoel; he has averaged 1600 points the last 8 seasons, and his schedule is crazy good. I think he's past his peak, but he should still be able to improve his 2020 score a lot.
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley: 450 points, 83 teams
Not much to say here. A must have.
WELLENS Tim: 431 points, 18 teams
I'm absolutely shocked that he's only picked 18 times. One of the best picks in the game this year in my opinion and one of the first riders to make it onto my team. He's only been improving the last couple of seasons and is intering his prime. Could easily tripple his score.
LUTSENKO Alexey: 397 points, 31 teams
Lutsenko was also one of the first riders on my team. However, I'm actually not sure that he's such a no-brainer pick that I initially thought, as I think I might be overemphasizing his 2019-season. He was just so strong that year though, that I just auto-included him in my team without really thinking twice about it.
TRENTIN Matteo: 370 points, 36 teams
Also one of the no-brainer picks for me this year and another rider I just put onto my team and never thought about it again. Should pretty easily be able to tripple his 2019 score, although I might overestimate him.
NAESEN Oliver: 344 points, 42 teams
Quite a similar story to that of Trentin and should also be able to tripple his score from last year. He's quite an underrated classics rider in my opinion, but he's just below the very best as one of the most reliable hardmen out there.
TEUNISSEN Mike: 172 points, 34 teams
I've been following Teunissen for quite some time, so I was happy to see him break through two years ago (despite him not being on my team then). His 2019 season might have been a fluke, but he wasn't actually that bad last year - he just didn't race much. I'd be very happy to see him back at his best in 2021 but less will do as well.
BUCHMANN Emanuel: 157 points, 79 teams
No-brainer pick.
DAINESE Alberto: 137 points, 19 teams
One of the most promising young sprinters in the peloton. Already last year he was given a lot of support and that won't change this season. I think he could have a "Jakobsen 2018"-kinda year. He's also one of the riders I'm looking forward to be following the most.
JUNGELS Bob: 136 points, 61 teams
I've never really been a fan of Jungels, but he improved on me when he started focusing on other goals than stage races, and with his win in Liege, he showed that that was the right decision. He will get a lot of freedom at Ag2r, and I expect him to bounce back into the 500-600 points range.
LAPORTE Christophe: 136 points, 32 teams
He had two good years in 2018 and 2019 and he should be able to score a lot of points on the French cycling scene in which many races suit him well. He's also fun to have on the team for memes.
HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose: 129 points, 25 teams
I actually think that Hodeg is pretty overrated although he has shown some good sprinting skills once in a while. With Jakobsen likely out, he will have much more room to make results and I expect him to improve his score quite a bit even though he won't set the world on fire.
DUPONT Timothy: 114 points, 13 teams
Very boring pick. I don't even know what the guy looks like. He's just here because he's consistently been scoring a lot of points in smaller Belgian races and should do so again this year. Of course the big question mark is which races will get cancelled, but if the season is more or less back to normal, he should be a good pick.
POLITT Nils: 89 points, 65 teams
Had a massive 2019 and a very bad 2020. He's still a big talent with a huge engine and the move to Bora should benefit him I feel like. I don't expect another 2019 but less will do as well.
PLANCKAERT Baptiste: 86 points, 4 teams
Another boring pick and another rider I don't know what looks like. He's also my most unique pick which I kinda had expected. He's definitely not gonna set the world on fire but a solid points haul is what I expect instead. I probably should have picked another rider instead though - Calmejane or Groves perhaps.
DEKKER David: 70 points, 10 teams
Finally a rider I'm very excited about and really look forward to follow the next year. He's very talented as his performance and result in Le Samyn showed. 2021 might be a tad too early for him to really break through, but I would be kicking myself had I left him out and he scored 500 points.
SARREAU Marc: 70 points, 43 teams
As other have mentioned, he was involved in the Jakobsen crash which ended his season. I've not read up on him so I just hope he's fine and able to compete again. If so, his move to Ag2r should be good and a lot of the smaller French races suit him very well.
VANMARCKE Sep: 70 points, 62 teams
I don't actually expect that much from Vanmarcke, but at 70 points he was too cheap to leave out. More like a defensive pick than anything else.
SOSA CUERVO Ivan Ramiro: 68 points, 42 teams
Hailed as the next Bernal, Sosa had a horrible 2020. He's not on a good team to be able to ride his own chances, but on the other hand, Ineos is very good at nurturing their young riders. He did show some glimpes of his talent in 2020, so here's to hoping he'll show a lot more of that this year.
TEJADA CANACUE Harold Alfonso: 67 points, 12 teams
Tejada impressed me quite a bit in 2020 with his performances in the Mount Ventoux Challenge and the Tour. I had never heard of him before, so he was a revelation for me. I think he'll get some chances to ride for himself in 2021, but I don't expect the big breakthrough, just a solid points improvement.
ARENSMAN Thymen: 65 points, 24 teams
Speaking of riders who impressed me in Grand Tours. Arensman was really impressive in the Vuelta last year, getting into the right breaks and riding very well on the Covatilla stage. Many young riders experience a massive increase in performances after their first Grand Tour, so I can't wait to see what he's capable of in 2021. DSM is also one of the best teams for young riders to improve and get their own chance.
BOUDAT Thomas: 61 points, 5 teams
Only 5 teams picked Boudat? Maybe I'm missing something here, but if not, he should be a pretty solid choice, picking up some points in French races.
PIDCOCK Thomas: 57 points, 76 teams
Arguably the biggest talent out there (not withcounting Evenepoel, of course) - and almost everyone else thinks the same. Not much to add here.
KRUIJSWIJK Steven: 57 points, 72 teams
Another must have. He's likely to not reach his 2018-2019 level again, but much less will also do. Not much to add here either.
LATOUR Pierre: 49 points, 61 teams
Yet another very obvious pick. His progression seems to have stalled, but at 49 points he should still be profitable. The move to Direct Energie is a good one for him, I think.
VAN WILDER Ilan: 26 points, 18 teams
Van Wilder was actually pretty decent in 2020, but had some bad luck. A very big prospect, but 2021 could be a season or two too son for him to break through. I have hopes for a good season, though.
VANSEVENANT Mauri: 15 points, 28 teams
This pick is solely based on his amazing performance in Fleche Wallone, where I instantly became a huge fan of this young kid. I'm looking forward to following him the next many season and I think something big is awaiting for him in the future.
DE PLUS Laurens: 5 points, 56 teams
A pretty boring pick. He won't do much, but likely he'll do some and be worth his 5 points.
BRENNER Marco: 0 points, 31 teams
Another huge talent. Too cheap to risk miss out on as he could have a break through season already this year.
Some of the most popular riders that I left out include Evenepoel, who was the first rider on my team - and the last to get the axe. I really wanted him as he's by far the most exciting rider out there, and it might turn out to be a mistake ditching him. I was just scared to include him because of the recent news regarding his injury. If he does score 3000+ points, I'll still be happy though, as I'm a big fan of his. Froome I completely forgot about, which will probably come back to haunt me, but I'm pretty confident that he won't be anywhere near his peak level. He could still score a good chunk of points though, of course. Bardet is really dividing the waters here. I'm not a big fan of him, and I don't think he's that good anymore. There were several other riders I would have picked over him in his price range like Thomas and Sivakov.
@skidmark maybe I am extremely blind but I cant find my team in the "rank popularity" tab. If it still under work, then no worries.
He did score some impressive results earlier in his career, yes, but looking at him ride, I've only seen him become stronger and also more versatile. His 2020 wasn't good, I'll admit, and he's very good at training himself into shape and usually starts his season with a blast, so on paper he should have been one of the riders benefiting the most from the covid-lockdown but 2020 was just such a weird season that I don't read too much into that.I strongly disagree with the assessment that Wellens has only been improving the last couple of years. In 2014 and 2015, he won the BinckBank Tour and in 2016, he won the Tour de Pologne. He has kept posting similar performances throughou the years until 2019 but last he was pretty bad until he won a couple of breakaway stages in a Vuelta where I think many riders were pretty fatigued. I'm not saying he is bad now but I just can't see anything that should suggest him being on an upwards trajectory. I didn't consider him for a second.
He did score some impressive results earlier in his career, yes, but looking at him ride, I've only seen him become stronger and also more versatile. His 2020 wasn't good, I'll admit, and he's very good at training himself into shape and usually starts his season with a blast, so on paper he should have been one of the riders benefiting the most from the covid-lockdown but 2020 was just such a weird season that I don't read too much into that.
Time to present my team and thoughts.
WELLENS Tim: 431 points, 18 teams
I'm absolutely shocked that he's only picked 18 times. One of the best picks in the game this year in my opinion and one of the first riders to make it onto my team. He's only been improving the last couple of seasons and is entering his prime. Could easily tripple his score.
PLANCKAERT Baptiste: 86 points, 4 teams
Another boring pick and another rider I don't know what looks like. He's also my most unique pick which I kinda had expected. He's definitely not gonna set the world on fire but a solid points haul is what I expect instead. I probably should have picked another rider instead though - Calmejane or Groves perhaps.