The 2024 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[Hugo Koblet]

Whew, I finally got through all the posts since the reveal. It's so much fun - and very interesting - to hear everyone's thoughts on their - and others - riders. Here are some thoughts from me.

First, let's go through a couple of riders I didn't pick (but would have liked to now...):

Sheffield I just couldn't fit into my team. I'm actually surprised that he's picked this often (22 times), especially with Uijtdebroeks at the (almost) exact same price, whom I consider a safer pick. I believe Sheffield to be a huge talent, and I'm kind of torn now as I have a soft spot for him and I really hope that he does well but can he please just wait a year now that I don't have him on my team? One thing that put me off is that I think that he will do a GT in 2024 which is a lot of wasted race days and I have a feeling (it's just a hunch) that he doesn't recover too well, so I fear that GT might exhaust him as well.

As is the case with Sheffield, I have a soft spot for Plapp as well. In a non-CQ game I put a lot of trust in him last year, and I just think the fact that he let me down in that game made me look towards other options in the same price range. I think there's a lot of exciting riders in this price range like Nys, Poole, Onley, Tiberi, Tulett etc., and I guess I just wanted to try someone else. Now that I see how many teams have picked Plapp (40) I kind of regret that decision and in non-CQ game manner, I wish him all the best. I was also kind of worried that his track focus would hinder his scoring capabilities this year, so hopefully I can pick him for a fair price next year.

Del Toro I honestly never considered, but by the looks of it I should have for sure. He just slipped my mind, and had you asked me who won l'Avenir this year I wouldn't have been able to tell you. Looking through his results, he does look like the real deal but (and perhaps this is just to calm myself) I think he'll have a tough time breaking through at UAE already this year. 400 points does look feasible, but if that's the case, it's not the worst thing in the world for us non-Del Toro teams.

Speaking of neo-pros there were quite a few I missed that I would have liked to include - had I just known about their existance. Magnier and Gelders especially. They seem like obvious picks but I've simply not heard enough about them for them to be on my radar, and I must not have scouted the QuickStep youngsters good enough. They both seem like great talents so I'm sorry to miss out on them.

Busatto is another youngster that flew under my radar, which sucks because he seems to be held in high regard by a lot proven CQ gamers - and because I tend to have a soft spot for young Italians which his exact qualities, so I would have loved to have him on my team as well.

Hagenes I had a quick look at and just as quickly dismissed as too expensive for a neo pro, but perhaps I should have taken another look at him. He does seem like the real deal and him being picked by 20 teams makes me wonder if I missed out on this years big break through rider. Hopefully it's a year too early for him, but I fear that it might not be.

I think those are the ones I'm most upset about not having in my team. Other popular riders (20+ picks) that I didn't pick include Moscon, Valgren, Bennett, Stewart, Walls, Riccitello, Wright, Vandenebeele, Schachmann, Higuita and Foss, but I'm not regretting those as much. Walls I didn't spot, and he's probably the one of those I fear the most and had I known about him being available for 18 points I would have picked him. Moscon is a cheap gamble with a high upside and not much of a downside, so I like that pick, but I just think he's done, so I didn't want to use a slot on him. Riccitello is a pick I like as well and considered for a while, but there's only room for so many riders in your team, right? Higuita is a good gamble as well I think, and I could also have gone for him instead of Hayter, but I just like Hayter a bit more. The other I don't rate too highly (watch this comment come back and bite me...).

Now a few riders I did pick that I want to add a small comment to:

Nys is of course a very big talent, but I'm starting to second guess my decision to include him. Nys was one of the very first riders on my team and I've always been certain that I wanted him, so I never really pondered the choice very much afterwards. I did start to become a bit concerned when he got exhausted in the middle of the cross season, and just now I find out that he's not starting his road campaign until Romandie which I definitely didn't see coming. I thought he was a sure bet for the classics, so that's definitely worrisome. However, he didn't really do many races before Romandie last year either, so maybe it's not that bad. He's such a big talent that he should be able to improve quite a bit regardless.

Fisher-Black was picked 15 times which is probably thereabouts I would have guessed, but I think he could be very good pick. Of course he's on a stacked team, but his showings this year - especially in the Vuelta - was very promising coming back from a very serious injury. I think - and hope - that he can potentially top 3 Tour Down Under and then he's already off to a very good start, and will only need to get his own chances a few more times.

Tiberi was also just picked 15 times, and I'm very happy with that as I have high expectations for him this season. I found him very promising in 2023 both as a stage racer but also in one day races. I think he's on a very nice trajectory and hope that he'll double his points this season.

Tulett was only picked 9 times which is a bit surprising to me. Of course he comes with quite a bit of a price tag, but I've always considered him a huge talent. His qualities in time trials and on punchy climbs (I see him more as a classics rider than af GC rider actually) is a good combination in terms of scoring potential. Now of course the big question mark is his role in the team, but Visma's classics team isn't actually that good so hopefully Tulett will get his chances in those kind of races - as well as some minor stage races. I don't expect too much from him in the Vuelta with Vingegaard and Kuss on the team as well.

Van Uden was also only picked 9 times. He's definitely not a rider I expect a major break through from and he was one of the last riders to get into my team to make the puzzle fit, but despite his lackluster 2023 I think he has the potential to become a good sprinter. DSM seem to have a lot of faith in him and despite them not being the best team for a sprinter (in my opinion), he should get a lot of chances to score points.

Berhe was another rider I included last minute to make the team fit the budget, and while Del Toro is probably a bigger talent, I think that Berhe could be better pick this year, as he already has a season among the pros under his belt and he'll get a lot more chances as leader in stage races. To be fair, I don't know too much about him, but I found him quite promising last year. Time will tell.

Good luck to everyone! It will be interesting to see who has cracked the code this year 😉

 

[Panda Claws]

In hindsight I should probably have gambled a lot more on obvious talents like Del Toro.
In the past pretty much every Tour de l'Avenir winner has made a profit the next year.

2022 Winner UIJTDEBROEKS Cian went from 253 to 574.
2021 Winner JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland went from 237 to 462.
2019 Winner FOSS Tobias Svendsen went from 127 to 99 but we all know what happened in 2020.
2018 Winner POGACAR Tadej went from 361 to 1519.
2017 Winner BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley went from 766 to 1130.
2016 Winner GAUDU David went from 196 to 352.
2015 Winner SOLER GIMENEZ Marc went from 111 to 155.
2014 Winner LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel went from 71 to 297.
2013 Winner FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben went from 67 to 163.
2012 Winner BARGUIL Warren went from 120 to 342.
2011 Winner CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban went from 64 to 314.
2010 Winner QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander went from 72 to 60.

Essentially since the start of this game only Quintana and Foss have not entered into profit in the year after their Tour de l'Avenir victory. Everyone else barring Soler, Gaudu and perhaps Bernal and Johannessen were really solid picks too.

Ridiculous that I had such significant doubts about the (absolute) top youngsters being able to improve on their scores in their first pro year.

Edit: Funnily enough if you do the same exercise but with the U23 WCRR then only 5 out of 12 riders made profit.

 

[Squire]

In hindsight I should probably have gambled a lot more on obvious talents like Del Toro.
In the past pretty much every Tour de l'Avenir winner has made a profit the next year.

2022 Winner UIJTDEBROEKS Cian went from 253 to 574.
2021 Winner JOHANNESSEN Tobias Halland went from 237 to 462.
2019 Winner FOSS Tobias Svendsen went from 127 to 99 but we all know what happened in 2020.
2018 Winner POGACAR Tadej went from 361 to 1519.
2017 Winner BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley went from 766 to 1130.
2016 Winner GAUDU David went from 196 to 352.
2015 Winner SOLER GIMENEZ Marc went from 111 to 155.
2014 Winner LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel went from 71 to 297.
2013 Winner FERNANDEZ ANDUJAR Ruben went from 67 to 163.
2012 Winner BARGUIL Warren went from 120 to 342.
2011 Winner CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban went from 64 to 314.
2010 Winner QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander went from 72 to 60.

Essentially since the start of this game only Quintana and Foss have not entered into profit in the year after their Tour de l'Avenir victory. Everyone else barring Soler, Gaudu and perhaps Bernal and Johannessen were really solid picks too.

Ridiculous that I had such significant doubts about the (absolute) top youngsters being able to improve on their scores in their first pro year.

I think rather than indicating you should always pick the l'Avenir winner, this list shows that it's very far from a given that they'll be a great pick. To your list of Quintana, Foss, Soler, Gaudu, Bernal and Johannessen as not great picks, I'd add Fernandez too. You usually want more than that from your cheap picks. That leaves only 5/12 as good picks, and only Pogi improved to an extent where you'd be really hard pressed to find better picks in his price range. Chaves and Lopez also scored about as well as you can expect from riders at their price.

But it does also show that with the best youngsters, they're likely to give you at least some profit.

I don't think Del Toro is guaranteed to be a fantastic pick either, as I'm a bit unsure about how good the level of the top U23 climbers was in 2023. Except maybe JSM, none of the protagonists of the Baby Giro, Valle d'Aosta and l'Avenir scream instant WT results.

Whew, I finally got through all the posts since the reveal. It's so much fun - and very interesting - to hear everyone's thoughts on their - and others - riders. Here are some thoughts from me.

An interesting read!

I think Fisher-Black is a very underrated pick. He just got better and better last year, and UAE have quite a set roster of domestiques that always do the donkey work (Laengen, Majka, Oliveiras, Bjerg, Novak etc.) and I don't think FFB will join that group yet, so he should have chances.

I've seen several people question Plapp on the basis of Olympic track stuff. Where do you have that info from? Is he even still on the Aussie track team? Everything I've read indicates full focus on road cycling.

As I've also mentioned, Walls is a bit scary not to have. Especially now that Penhoet is out for a bit. I guess Walls is now a given to do the ultimate CQ boosting race, Clasica de Almeria. Let's hope (for our sake, not for his) that his lack of durability saves us.

 

[Squire]

Other popular riders (20+ picks) that I didn't pick include Moscon, Valgren, Bennett, Stewart, Walls, Riccitello, Wright, Vandenebeele, Schachmann, Higuita and Foss, but I'm not regretting those as much. [...]The other I don't rate too highly (watch this comment come back and bite me...).

I'll set an alarm to remind me about this comment on the day of the Olympic TT!

 

[ingsve]

You usually want more than that from your cheap picks. That leaves only 5/12 as good picks, and only Pogi improved to an extent where you'd be really hard pressed to find better picks in his price range.

I think it's a lot to expect that all young riders in your team turn out to be great picks so with that in mind you could categorize the l'Avenir winner as a rather safe pick that is unlikely to let you down and that is more than likely to at least break even and still with a chance to be great.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I'll set an alarm to remind me about this comment on the day of the Olympic TT!

Haha, you make sure do that

Regarding Plapp and the Olympics, I'm not sure at all if he's doing the Olympics or even doing much track anymore. I guess it was just a voice in the back of my mind telling me that, as I read somewhere sometime that he would focus on track until after Paris 2024, but I haven't followed his track ambitions at all.

 

[Squire]

I think it's a lot to expect that all young riders in your team turn out to be great picks so with that in mind you could categorize the l'Avenir winner as a rather safe pick that is unlikely to let you down and that is more than likely to at least break even and still with a chance to be great.

I completely agree, and it's basically how I've constructed my entire team this year. I have a lot guys (hopefully) on the verge of a breakthrough, both neo-pros and some slightly more experienced riders. I've learnt the painful lesson from past years that older riders bounce back a lot less than I want them to. If a younger rider decides that this is not his year to break through yet, that's a lot less frustrating than some older guy continuing his decline and making me look like a fool for picking him. I've even had several picks retire mid-season before. If my post came across as indicating that picking youngsters is a bad idea, I might have worded it a bit clumsily.

 

[ingsve]

I completely agree, and it's basically how I've constructed my entire team this year. I have a lot guys (hopefully) on the verge of a breakthrough, both neo-pros and some slightly more experienced riders. I've learnt the painful lesson from past years that older riders bounce back a lot less than I want them to. If a younger rider decides that this is not his year to break through yet, that's a lot less frustrating than some older guy continuing his decline and making me look like a fool for picking him. I've even had several picks retire mid-season before. If my post came across as indicating that picking youngsters is a bad idea, I might have worded it a bit clumsily.

Ya, I at least tried to avoid those older riders who look like a steal based on the past results but they are at an age where they are likely just on a permanent decline. I ended up not following that 100% though since I ended up picking Alaphilippe and Moscon for example but I think I have fewer of those than in the past at least.

 

[Salvarani]

I thought Moscon would be picked a lot more because of his price and the team he ended up signing for. Mostly the latter for me. SQS is one of few teams that might bring him back to a good level again.

32 picks is "only" around 1/3 of the teams. I thought he would be on 60% of the teams at least.

One of the first riders I picked, with Quintana, who were never in danger of coming off.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Oh, one rider I didn't mention, who I did heavily consider is Oldani whom I think could be a great pick. In the end I chose Berhe instead. Oldani might be the safer (and perhaps better) choice, but Berhe is a little bit more fun to follow I think.

 

[hfgon1]

...Berhe was another rider I included last minute to make the team fit the budget, and while Del Toro is probably a bigger talent, I think that Berhe could be better pick this year, as he already has a season among the pros under his belt and he'll get a lot more chances as leader in stage races. To be fair, I don't know too much about him, but I found him quite promising last year. Time will tell....

Had him in my team last year, made 120 points profit and had him on my radar for this year too. I think a lot depends on his racing schedule. Last year he had some injury issues after starting his season and had no points till the Tour de Suisse. Later on he was sent to the Vuelta, which came too early in my eyes. He didnt finish it and had no points from the start of the Vuelta. But he still scored 134 points at the Tour de Suisse (finished 16th), Austrian Tour (finished 6th) and the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon (finished 9th).

In the end he scored all his points during a great 6-week-span. Without injuries and a schedule with some 2.1 and 2.Pro races, I think he can be a great pick with at least 300+ points which would be ok as profit. Bad thing is that he looked like a pure climber. His classics results were not much promising, so it looks like his points need to come from stage races mostly. If his calendar is World Tour based, it can be hard for him to score a lot.

 

[Squire]

I thought Moscon would be picked a lot more because of his price and the team he ended up signing for. Mostly the latter for me. SQS is one of few teams that might bring him back to a good level again.

32 picks is "only" around 1/3 of the teams. I thought he would be on 60% of the teams at least.

One of the first riders I picked, with Quintana, who were never in danger of coming off.

Having had Moscon in my team every year over the past four editions, I might be a bit scarred.

Twice he has been one of my most expensive picks and scored next to nothing. And then he of course was a great pick in between those years. I just haven't seen anything that indicates that his post-Covid woes are behind him, and there were so many other exciting picks to chose from.

I'm a big fan of him as a rider though, and a bit of a fan of his new team as well, and usually that's enough to sway me on those decisions. But enough is enough. I cut my losses on Intxausti, Halvorsen, König, Froome and Kittel earlier than most other CQ managers, and that turned out to be correct decisions. The major one that I got wrong was Cavendish in 2021, and that hurt even more because it meant the difference between me winning the game and coming 2nd. Let's hope Moscon doesn't come back to haunt me like that after having already haunted my team previously by being in it!

In the end I chose Berhe instead.

Berhe must be one of the most un-hyped talents out there at the moment. I don't think I'd ever heard of him before I started working on my CQ team. And that is weird considering how much (largely unjustified) hype there was around Teklehaimanot, Berhane, Kudus etc. when they came through. It's a bit different now that Eritreans and Ehtiopians are a bit more numerous in the peloton of course, but Werhe definitely has some promising results and is probably the best African GC talent out there.

Berhe faced very stiff competition in his price range to get into my team though, and I don't quite trust the East Africans to deliver on their promise. Nobody has really managed it yet, with Girmay being somewhat of an exception, but he's also a very different rider type and has been in the European system from an early age.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Berhe must be one of the most un-hyped talents out there at the moment. I don't think I'd ever heard of him before I started working on my CQ team. And that is weird considering how much (largely unjustified) hype there was around Teklehaimanot, Berhane, Kudus etc. when they came through. It's a bit different now that Eritreans and Ehtiopians are a bit more numerous in the peloton of course, but Werhe definitely has some promising results and is probably the best African GC talent out there.

Berhe faced very stiff competition in his price range to get into my team though, and I don't quite trust the East Africans to deliver on their promise. Nobody has really managed it yet, with Girmay being somewhat of an exception, but he's also a very different rider type and has been in the European system from an early age.

I had Berhe last year and it was very much fun to have him on te team. He lost out on some points even, as he would have probably ended up second in Österreich Rundafrt had he not suffered a mechanical near the finish on stage 1. But for some reason I didn't keep him for this year. I hope I am not going to regret it too much come November.

 

[repre]

I thought Moscon would be picked a lot more because of his price and the team he ended up signing for. Mostly the latter for me. SQS is one of few teams that might bring him back to a good level again.

32 picks is "only" around 1/3 of the teams. I thought he would be on 60% of the teams at least.

One of the first riders I picked, with Quintana, who were never in danger of coming off.

SQS is not what it used to be, they are not classics team anymore... Not saying Moscon won't profit, i almost picked him, but i really dislike the guy

 

[Anderis]

I thought Moscon would be picked a lot more because of his price and the team he ended up signing for. Mostly the latter for me. SQS is one of few teams that might bring him back to a good level again.

32 picks is "only" around 1/3 of the teams. I thought he would be on 60% of the teams at least.

One of the first riders I picked, with Quintana, who were never in danger of coming off.

After what Quick Step has done with Cavendish, no way I'm not picking someone like Moscon for 68 points.

 

[Kazistuta]

I've seen several people question Plapp on the basis of Olympic track stuff. Where do you have that info from? Is he even still on the Aussie track team? Everything I've read indicates full focus on road cycling.

After seing these arguments post-reveal I tried to find some articles about it. The best I could do was articles from 2022, where Plapp himself stated his desire to compete in Paris, both on track (madison and 4000 m relay) AND road (the time trial in particular, but also the road race). I think that was somewhat crazy ambitions, but nevertheless it tells us that Plapp always desired to go for the road as well. His statements from the end of 2023 mostly points towards road racing, not track, and regardless he shouldn't be your typical Olympic track cyclist with almost blindfolded sight of the Olympics. for half a year. Let's see how he does tomorrow morning, I'm sure he'll get points, but I have a feeling Jayco is in it for Ewan.

 

[Squire]

Let's see how he does tomorrow morning, I'm sure he'll get points, but I have a feeling Jayco is in it for Ewan.

Ewan has never survived that route, and luckily there are riders on non-Jayco teams who can make it hard. Bad weather is also not very Ewan friendly I think. But I think that if Jayco are gonna win it, it's gonna be a bit of a lottery if it's Plapp or Harper or Hamilton who gets away in the finale. I expect Plapp in the top 5 anyway though. TDU is where I have hopes for some real Aussie summer points for him.

 

[will-10]

Ewan has never survived that route, and luckily there are riders on non-Jayco teams who can make it hard. Bad weather is also not very Ewan friendly I think. But I think that if Jayco are gonna win it, it's gonna be a bit of a lottery if it's Plapp or Harper or Hamilton who gets away in the finale. I expect Plapp in the top 5 anyway though. TDU is where I have hopes for some real Aussie summer points for him.

He was 2nd behind Haussler in '15 and 4th in '18 on Buninyong (and won the U23 in '14)

 

[Kazistuta]

... and I still recall his drive up Poggio in 2021, where he was in form and with a stated goal. Just like now, he seems very motivated.

 

[repre]

... and I still recall his drive up Poggio in 2021, where he was in form and with a stated goal. Just like now, he seems very motivated.

and never been the same since injuries

 

[jon ezeitza]

I see that people don't like taking the expensive ones. I have KOOIJ and ZINGLE exclusively and sharing SKJELMOSE with another. All three are young and have a promising future. I expect a lot from them, like last year from VINGEGAARD, who gave me almost 1,000 tip points .

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Tulett was only picked 9 times which is a bit surprising to me. Of course he comes with quite a bit of a price tag, but I've always considered him a huge talent. His qualities in time trials and on punchy climbs (I see him more as a classics rider than af GC rider actually) is a good combination in terms of scoring potential. Now of course the big question mark is his role in the team, but Visma's classics team isn't actually that good so hopefully Tulett will get his chances in those kind of races - as well as some minor stage races. I don't expect too much from him in the Vuelta with Vingegaard and Kuss on the team as well.

You know how high I am on his potential so I think it's a really good pick. I had him on my team until the very end before swapping him ( + Turner and Christen) out for Cian (who has more potential upside in my opinion). I could probably have found a way to keep him and move someone else off the team but with Uijtdebroeks, Hagenes, Staune-Mittet and Gloag I had already reached my Visma quota lol. The last cuts from my team always seem to dominate so you can thank me when he reaches 1000 points.

 

[armchairclimber]

Well Plapp is doing all he can to keep half the field happy. Nice start to the campaign.

 

[ingsve]

Well Plapp is doing all he can to keep half the field happy. Nice start to the campaign.

Ya, then again he is only 30 points ahead of last year so this should perhaps be expected.

 

[Anderis]

Ya, then again he is only 30 points ahead of last year so this should perhaps be expected.

I didn't really account for that in my calculations. Forgot how much CQ overrates NCs compared to PCS.

Not bad for a 300-pointer to be on almost 50% return before the first international race has even started. It's more points than if he would've finished 3rd in a race like Itzulia.