Still no update, so I had time to finish the second half of my team rundown...
Luke Lamperti (176, 39): The Wolfpack may have become a less powerful collective over the last couple of years after capitulating to a single GC-oriented Alpha, but I’m not done believing in Lefevre’s ability to maximize the potential of young classics and sprint talent. Lamperti himself convinced me to take him in an interview when he noted he was basically #2 behind Merlier in the sprinters at the team. That both speaks to the change in perspective that’s made QST a bit less of a guarantee for picking riders in the game, and to the fact that he’ll have opportunities in the smaller races with a support network that’s still solid, if not head and shoulders above everyone else like it used to be.
Antonio Morgado (132, 37): I’m not sure exactly what to expect from him in his neo year. Last year, of course he got 2nd at the U23 worlds, and he was pretty much at the top of most of the races on his calendar, but the big 3 marquee stage races for U23s (Giro, Aosta, Avenir) he rode all 3 and got no results. So I expect a bit of a learning curve to the highest level, but the upside is enough to take him.
Thomas Gloag (171, 33): He had a great start to last year, then got parachuted into the Giro on literally hours’ notice, did the whole thing to understandably anonymous personal results, took a long break, did San Sebastien and immediately got hit by a car in training and ended his season. It’s been hard to find info on what he’s aiming for this year or even how he’s doing, but I trust what I saw in the early season last year.
Axel Laurance (187, 31): I almost took him for over 300 last year despite his devo team contract, figuring his big result in a WT race augured well for consistent success. Glad I didn’t, but again his U23 Worlds win showed a solid strength that I can hope translates to more dates on the calendar. And at a cheaper price!
Michael Valgren (89, 27): Valgren was one of those picks for years that I always considered after a down year, but couldn’t trust. Now he’s coming back from a major, major setback, and used 2023 to build back up – again, I’m a sucker for a comeback story. But he a) is cheap enough to take a flyer on, and b) showed some decent results by the end of the year. So I think a few hundred is definitely possible.
Darren Rafferty (103, 26): A decent heuristic I have to choose someone for my team is if you finish 1st and 2nd in two of the three marquee U23 stage races and don’t cost too much, you’re worth taking. If that’s the case, I can take a look to see if there are any other red flags, but really don’t need to overcomplicate it.
Carlos Rodriguez (810, 24): One of the key riders on my team, both in the process of choosing it and also the outcome. Ayuso was more of a no-brainer, but taking a chance on someone else this expensive is a bit more deliberative. I thought about Gregoire (worried that bigger races would mean a higher level would not translate to points as he’d sacrifice the #1 points of his lower level wins in 2023) and Demare (getting older, lower ceiling despite the team switch), or just going with a few riders with lower price. But ultimately, what got me about C-Rod is the same as what I said about Carapaz. He’s a triple threat – he just always delivers in 1-days, weeklong stage races, and GTs. Rodriguez was top 20 in every 1-day he finished in 2023, and top 10 in every stage race. 2022, similar story (15th in Catalunya and 37th in Itzulia, and two 1-day results being the exceptions). That dependability is key for a rider this expensive, as I know even if his schedule gets disrupted he’ll make the most of the chances he gets. Plus he’s 22 years old still! Improving his 5th in the Tour would be a bit of a pipe dream with the big 4 there, but turning his 5th and 7th in Lombardia the last 2 years into a podium? Being healthy and getting a result in Liege? Pulling in points from the Olys/Worlds? The possibilities are broad.
Emil Herzog (4, 23): I shied away from him as he didn’t seem to handle the step up to even U23 very well, despite two dominant years as a junior, suggesting he might need a year or two at the pros (if he can even hang – is he another Silvio Herklotz?) But after I was convinced by my own long-winded logic to take the above-mentioned Rodriguez and his 810 points, I needed some cheap lottery tickets and hey why not.
Tobias Foss (197, 20): He really had a horrorshow of a year, with 36 days racing. He’s finished top 10 in a GT and won a worlds TT, and even in bad years pulls out form at some point. I’m just hoping for some consistency, and if not, he’s got both World and Oly TTs to pull a rabbit out of his hat – 250 for first in either would put him in profit! I kid, I kid, that was a one-off. But he can pull out a podium on a good day, and if he can actually ride a GT solidly he’ll be a good pick.
Leo Hayter (97, 18): I have not been able to find no info – during the season or after – as to why he only raced 29 days, and barely anything after a promising result in Coppi e Bartali in March. But he was a rider I had some belief in to include in my cheap sweep at the end when I needed to get x more riders for y more points.
Fracesco Busatto (186, 16): I actually know little about him, I was just taken in by his range of decent placings in 1-day races all over the calendar. It’s easy to forecast a few better results with a step up to WT team support. I was also drawn in by the appeal of his extensive racing calendar already being laid out on his PCS page – I don’t even care what he’s racing, it’s just easy to look at a bunch of race days and think “wow that’s a lot of chances for points”. I wasn’t thinking at my highest level by the time I added him, but I still think he’s a good add.
Alexy Faure Prost (36, 14): I worry that he’s a little young and needs another year before being a worthwhile pick. He definitely seemed to struggle in his pro races later in the season. But top 5 in both Aosta and Giro at least suggests some pedigree and consistency, so when filling out the last spots on the team with lower budget riders, I don’t mind taking a chance.
William Junior Lecerf (182, 13): A bit on the expensive side for a neo who isn’t a guarantee by any means, but he had enough consistency in stage races (including a top 5 in Avenir) and enough promise in 1-day races (won baby Lombardia, 11th in Piemonte with the pros) that I feel he’s a solid enough choice. I was a bit worried so many of his points came from Rwanda but turns out he’s doing it again so hopefully that’s replicable.
Gil Gelders (56, 10): I didn’t think much of including him in the team until I had to look for cheaper riders to finish the roster, but the more I looked the more I liked him as a pick. Admittedly I haven’t seen him race, I’m just going off of the pattern of his results, but he won U23 Gent Wevelgem solo, got 7th out of 13 in the finale of U23 LBL, won an 18-rider sprint for 2nd in U23 P-R, held off the pack by 6 seconds in a hilly finish of a Giro stage, and had some alright results in the 2nd half of the season. Always being there across a variety of terrains is a good baseline for someone to get some results at QST. A bit of an unknown factor to me but that’s a good results pattern.
Davide Piganzoli (177, 7): The last addition to my team. Again, haven’t seen him race much, but third in Avenir is an eye-catcher, and consistently decent placings make him a ‘why not’ choice. A brace of top 20s and 30s in almost 10 year-end Italian classics – including finishing in a group with Barguil, Madouas and Majka in Lombardia – is a good indicator that he has the consistency to be a decent pick if he gets those placings a little higher in 2024.
Zeb Kyffin (107, 2): I had no idea who this guy was before the team-building process, just noted him down as a curious rider on my longlist. First year scoring any CQ points and he’s 25 years old, despite 5 years showing up in the database? Moving to Pro Conti? Then I
found this article where he discusses racing a continental team schedule while working a more-than-full time job until the end of 2022, with 2023 being the first year he gave it a real go. 6th in the ToB ahead of some pretty decent riders is promising, and I mostly am interested in the upside of such a raw potential talent. Plus it’s a fun story, so that’s always a good tiebreaker!
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram