The 2024 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

Page 22 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Still no update, so I had time to finish the second half of my team rundown...

[snip]
Great rundown of your team, skidmark. We have 23 riders in common so I'm not too unhappy about that given your accomplishments in the game. Between you and me it's Busatto, Kyffin, Piganzoli, Gelders, Lecerf, Foss, Rodriguez, Valgren, Plapp and Del Toro on your side vs. Tulett, Poole, Tiberi, Fisher-Black, Vansevenant, Van Uden, Covi, Berhe, Christen and Nordhagen on my side. Let the battle begin :cool:

Kyffin I've never head of, but he looks like a fun gamble with an interesting story. Those kind of riders are the most fun to follow and the most rewarding if they turn out good.

Lecerf and Piganzoli I briefly considered, but I just found them both a little bit too expensive given their age. They both definitely seem like big talents though, so they could give a good return for sure.

Good luck and thanks again for keeping the game going!
 
Still no update, so I had time to finish the second half of my team rundown...

Luke Lamperti (176, 39): The Wolfpack may have become a less powerful collective over the last couple of years after capitulating to a single GC-oriented Alpha, but I’m not done believing in Lefevre’s ability to maximize the potential of young classics and sprint talent. Lamperti himself convinced me to take him in an interview when he noted he was basically #2 behind Merlier in the sprinters at the team. That both speaks to the change in perspective that’s made QST a bit less of a guarantee for picking riders in the game, and to the fact that he’ll have opportunities in the smaller races with a support network that’s still solid, if not head and shoulders above everyone else like it used to be.

Antonio Morgado (132, 37): I’m not sure exactly what to expect from him in his neo year. Last year, of course he got 2nd at the U23 worlds, and he was pretty much at the top of most of the races on his calendar, but the big 3 marquee stage races for U23s (Giro, Aosta, Avenir) he rode all 3 and got no results. So I expect a bit of a learning curve to the highest level, but the upside is enough to take him.

Thomas Gloag (171, 33): He had a great start to last year, then got parachuted into the Giro on literally hours’ notice, did the whole thing to understandably anonymous personal results, took a long break, did San Sebastien and immediately got hit by a car in training and ended his season. It’s been hard to find info on what he’s aiming for this year or even how he’s doing, but I trust what I saw in the early season last year.

Axel Laurance (187, 31): I almost took him for over 300 last year despite his devo team contract, figuring his big result in a WT race augured well for consistent success. Glad I didn’t, but again his U23 Worlds win showed a solid strength that I can hope translates to more dates on the calendar. And at a cheaper price!

Michael Valgren (89, 27): Valgren was one of those picks for years that I always considered after a down year, but couldn’t trust. Now he’s coming back from a major, major setback, and used 2023 to build back up – again, I’m a sucker for a comeback story. But he a) is cheap enough to take a flyer on, and b) showed some decent results by the end of the year. So I think a few hundred is definitely possible.

Darren Rafferty (103, 26): A decent heuristic I have to choose someone for my team is if you finish 1st and 2nd in two of the three marquee U23 stage races and don’t cost too much, you’re worth taking. If that’s the case, I can take a look to see if there are any other red flags, but really don’t need to overcomplicate it.

Carlos Rodriguez (810, 24): One of the key riders on my team, both in the process of choosing it and also the outcome. Ayuso was more of a no-brainer, but taking a chance on someone else this expensive is a bit more deliberative. I thought about Gregoire (worried that bigger races would mean a higher level would not translate to points as he’d sacrifice the #1 points of his lower level wins in 2023) and Demare (getting older, lower ceiling despite the team switch), or just going with a few riders with lower price. But ultimately, what got me about C-Rod is the same as what I said about Carapaz. He’s a triple threat – he just always delivers in 1-days, weeklong stage races, and GTs. Rodriguez was top 20 in every 1-day he finished in 2023, and top 10 in every stage race. 2022, similar story (15th in Catalunya and 37th in Itzulia, and two 1-day results being the exceptions). That dependability is key for a rider this expensive, as I know even if his schedule gets disrupted he’ll make the most of the chances he gets. Plus he’s 22 years old still! Improving his 5th in the Tour would be a bit of a pipe dream with the big 4 there, but turning his 5th and 7th in Lombardia the last 2 years into a podium? Being healthy and getting a result in Liege? Pulling in points from the Olys/Worlds? The possibilities are broad.

Emil Herzog (4, 23): I shied away from him as he didn’t seem to handle the step up to even U23 very well, despite two dominant years as a junior, suggesting he might need a year or two at the pros (if he can even hang – is he another Silvio Herklotz?) But after I was convinced by my own long-winded logic to take the above-mentioned Rodriguez and his 810 points, I needed some cheap lottery tickets and hey why not.

Tobias Foss (197, 20): He really had a horrorshow of a year, with 36 days racing. He’s finished top 10 in a GT and won a worlds TT, and even in bad years pulls out form at some point. I’m just hoping for some consistency, and if not, he’s got both World and Oly TTs to pull a rabbit out of his hat – 250 for first in either would put him in profit! I kid, I kid, that was a one-off. But he can pull out a podium on a good day, and if he can actually ride a GT solidly he’ll be a good pick.

Leo Hayter (97, 18): I have not been able to find no info – during the season or after – as to why he only raced 29 days, and barely anything after a promising result in Coppi e Bartali in March. But he was a rider I had some belief in to include in my cheap sweep at the end when I needed to get x more riders for y more points.

Fracesco Busatto (186, 16): I actually know little about him, I was just taken in by his range of decent placings in 1-day races all over the calendar. It’s easy to forecast a few better results with a step up to WT team support. I was also drawn in by the appeal of his extensive racing calendar already being laid out on his PCS page – I don’t even care what he’s racing, it’s just easy to look at a bunch of race days and think “wow that’s a lot of chances for points”. I wasn’t thinking at my highest level by the time I added him, but I still think he’s a good add.

Alexy Faure Prost (36, 14): I worry that he’s a little young and needs another year before being a worthwhile pick. He definitely seemed to struggle in his pro races later in the season. But top 5 in both Aosta and Giro at least suggests some pedigree and consistency, so when filling out the last spots on the team with lower budget riders, I don’t mind taking a chance.

William Junior Lecerf (182, 13): A bit on the expensive side for a neo who isn’t a guarantee by any means, but he had enough consistency in stage races (including a top 5 in Avenir) and enough promise in 1-day races (won baby Lombardia, 11th in Piemonte with the pros) that I feel he’s a solid enough choice. I was a bit worried so many of his points came from Rwanda but turns out he’s doing it again so hopefully that’s replicable.

Gil Gelders (56, 10): I didn’t think much of including him in the team until I had to look for cheaper riders to finish the roster, but the more I looked the more I liked him as a pick. Admittedly I haven’t seen him race, I’m just going off of the pattern of his results, but he won U23 Gent Wevelgem solo, got 7th out of 13 in the finale of U23 LBL, won an 18-rider sprint for 2nd in U23 P-R, held off the pack by 6 seconds in a hilly finish of a Giro stage, and had some alright results in the 2nd half of the season. Always being there across a variety of terrains is a good baseline for someone to get some results at QST. A bit of an unknown factor to me but that’s a good results pattern.

Davide Piganzoli (177, 7): The last addition to my team. Again, haven’t seen him race much, but third in Avenir is an eye-catcher, and consistently decent placings make him a ‘why not’ choice. A brace of top 20s and 30s in almost 10 year-end Italian classics – including finishing in a group with Barguil, Madouas and Majka in Lombardia – is a good indicator that he has the consistency to be a decent pick if he gets those placings a little higher in 2024.

Zeb Kyffin (107, 2): I had no idea who this guy was before the team-building process, just noted him down as a curious rider on my longlist. First year scoring any CQ points and he’s 25 years old, despite 5 years showing up in the database? Moving to Pro Conti? Then I found this article where he discusses racing a continental team schedule while working a more-than-full time job until the end of 2022, with 2023 being the first year he gave it a real go. 6th in the ToB ahead of some pretty decent riders is promising, and I mostly am interested in the upside of such a raw potential talent. Plus it’s a fun story, so that’s always a good tiebreaker!
Wow, still can beat Hugo Koblet by one rider. I counted 24 riders in common with you. That´s quite a lot.
My main difference to a lot of the other players high in the popularity ranking and also against you is that I don´t have Ayuso and also not Uijtdebroeks. Really have to hope for bad seasons for them..
 
Leo Hayter (97, 18): I have not been able to find no info – during the season or after – as to why he only raced 29 days, and barely anything after a promising result in Coppi e Bartali in March. But he was a rider I had some belief in to include in my cheap sweep at the end when I needed to get x more riders for y more points.
He didn't go into details but he was affected by illness for all those months.

As for Busatto, I interviewed him last year before he won LBL U23 and I was impressed with the awareness of his strengths and weaknesses. Very explosive on short hills, can sprint, will suffer on climbs longer than 15 minutes. It's basically your typical Italian U23 rider. I'm a more confident in him than most of his peers for a couple of reasons:
a) the team he's riding for (perfect calendar + they like him a lot from the info I gathered)
b) he has already shown a good level in international races
I suspect he could massively improve his TTing if necessary. After last year's Giro Next Gen TT he stated he was surprised he was the best placed Italian rider since he never trains on the TT bike.
 
GAZZOLI Michele - came back from his suspension like a bullet, curious to see what he can do in a full season
RONDEL Mathys - I'm probably crazy but I think his ceiling is similar to Del Toro's (at a cheaper price). Tudor likes to develop their talents slowly but I'm expecting a big step up this year.
Yours looks like a very dangerous team. All picks seem solid.

We others gotta hope that Ackermann continues the trend of older sprinters not scoring in recent years, and that THJ has too many points from small races that he won't defend. But I picked him last year and was disappointed that he didn't score more (the disrupted spring being the main culprit), so I clearly believe in his talents. And his consistency post-Tour was insane. Van Eetvelt can also maybe struggle to kick on enough for him to score big, as I don't think he's an absolute top level talent, but as I said in my Segaert assessment, Lotto-Destiny are really specializing in point-scoring these days. Maybe THJ and LVE are indeed slightly safer alternatives to my Poole, Tiberi and Onley.

Gazzoli, who I've highlighted with the quote, is someone I definitely would have picked in a year of less options in the 100-200 range. If Astana gives him a nice calendar, he can potentially be a gem. They used him as a leadout in Turkey, but that was probably just to give him race days, and I think his main strength is tougher races so he shouldn't be wasted in a sprint train in 2024.

Rondel is also super exciting, with him being so new to cycling. I was surprised he wasn't promoted to the main team, but he will probably get enough juicy races anyway. Also a slightly left-field pick that would be typical for me if there weren't so many good mainstream options.

I'm also intrigued by Gelders. He could end up totally anonymous, or he could get the Quickstep neo-pro magic. I'm always a bit wary of consistency issues with riders winning the occasional race due to solo attacks, like Gesbert or Nans Peters, but Gelders might be more well-rounded and is worth a shot. It's worrying that skidmark has him, too.

At best you could look at managers that have consistently overperformed the field (like yourself or skidmark) and see if they have riders that they pick a lot more/less often than the rest of the field and use that to slightly adjust expectations for those riders.
Busatto strikes me as such a pick this year. He seems very popular among us 'usual suspects'.

Someone (might have been Hakkie2) once did a pre-game run-down of which riders were 'over-picked' by players with certain achievements in the game. But it's a rather flimsy metric, of course.
 
TDU is soon starting and looking at the startlist, I will have some riders starting their season.

Line-up:
HODEG Álvaro José
MORGADO António
DEL TORO Isaac
PLAPP Luke
GIRMAY Biniam
MIHKELS Madis
TARLING Joshua
RYAN Archie

A pretty young squad, but a pretty balanced team for this race. Points will probably depend on how up to speed the riders are and how hard the race is.
 
Del Toro
Plapp
Gelders
L. Hayter
Staune-Mittet
Ryan
Boven
Don't really have high expectations for any of those except Plapp but Plapp has already disappointed me in TdU before, so I don't hope for many points out of this race.
 
TDU Team
  • TARLING Joshua
  • GIRMAY Biniam
  • MIHKELS Madis
  • VIVIANI Elia
  • RYAN Archie
  • KANTER Max
Probably too heavy on sprinters but that doesn't have to be bad for the TDU.
Viviani is a unique pick so there's some hope of doing something. I hope his generally stronger form in order to be good at the Olympic track will outweigh him racing fewer days to focus on the Olympic track.
 
TDU

GIRMAY HAILU Biniam
MORGADO Antonio Tomas
DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac
STAUNE-MITTET Johannes
VERGALLITO Luca
RYAN Archie

Decent amount of intrigue for a January race. First look at a few talented youngsters, the debut of Girmay's revenge tour and the opportunity to see if Vergallito belongs at the WT level.
 
For fun, I tried calculating which riders are the most decisive in the game. I looked at their price compared to how many times they were picked. My thought proces was that the closer the rider is to "cut the field in half" the more important he is. We're 94 players, so for instance a rider picked 44 times is more important than someone picked 69 times (44 is closer to 47 which is half of 94). This might be methodically unsound, but it's the best I could come up with while drinking my morning coffee before work :D I'm sure there are better ways of calculating this, so if someone can come up with another - or better - way of measuring it, I'd be very interested in seeing it. I actually think I did this in a previous year and someone corrected my method then, but I don't remember when, who or why, haha. Feel free to criticize it though ;)


Here's the top 20 most important riders according to this method:

1. Girmay
2. Hayter
3. Ayuso
4. Del Toro
5. Uijtdebroeks
6. Bernal
7. Plapp
8. Van Aert
9. Rodriguez
10. Demare
11. Sheffield
12. Turner
13. Carapaz
14. Mas
15. Pidcock
16. Lamperti
17. Martinez
18. Hart
19. Johannessen
20. Staune-Mittet
I also made this calculation today based more or less on the same assumptions, but personally opted the calculation method a bit.

This had been the order of most important riders for this season, which I determined:
AYUSO PESQUERA Juan
1289,925​
UIJTDEBROEKS Cian
874​
HAYTER Ethan
679​
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos
666​
PLAPP Lucas
641​
GIRMAY HAILU Biniam
604,8​
BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley
519,85​
SHEFFIELD Magnus
480,15​
LAMPERTI Luke
464,1​
NYS Thibau
423,5​
MORGADO Antonio Tomas
399,6​
BENNETT Sam
391,3​
DEMARE Arnaud
391,125​
GLOAG Thomas
388,575​
LAURANCE Axel
377,425​
HIGUITA GARCIA Sergio Andres
375,5​
MAS NICOLAU Enric
362,6​
DEL TORO ROMERO Isaac
349,8​
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
348,6​
VAN AERT Wout
342,15​
WRIGHT Fred
328,9​
PICCOLO Andrea
325,05​
CHRISTEN Jan
323,1​
JAKOBSEN Fabio
320,8​
TARLING Joshua
311,25​
VANSEVENANT Mauri
304,2​
HAGENES Per Strand
304​
COSNEFROY Benoît
300,8​
TURNER Ben
297,7​
MOSCON Gianni
294,4​
 
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TDU:

Covi
Fisher-Black
Morgado
Girmay
Staune-Mittet
Ryan

I hope that Fisher-Black can surprise, but other than that I don't have that high hopes of getting off to a good start compared to the Plapp teams (and perhaps Del Toro teams).
 
I think people might be overhyping De Toro a bit. Let's give the guy some time to accustom himself to the pro scene. Don't think he will show anything extraordinary already in TDU, although the overall quality of the field might not be what's usually to be expected in the World Tour races.
 
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I think people might be overhyping De Toro a bit. Let's give the guy some time to accustom himself to the pro scene. Don't think he will show anything extraordinary already in TDU, although the overall quality of the field might not be what's usually to be expected in the World Tour races.
Yeah, I think there's a bigger chance of Morgado delivering early. He said recently that he was surprised he wasn't up there in the GCs of the big U23 races last year, but that he knows what went wrong and how to correct it.
 
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I think people might be overhyping De Toro a bit. Let's give the guy some time to accustom himself to the pro scene. Don't think he will show anything extraordinary already in TDU, although the overall quality of the field might not be what's usually to be expected in the World Tour races.
I don't expect too much from Del Toro, but being on one of the 47 teams that don't have him, I fear him. Whether he's overhyped or not, I don't know but I hope it 😁

By the way, I do think that Morgado could surprise already at TDU as well, and I actually think there's some value to be found, if one's into betting on cycling.
 
I agree with Morgado, but have neither of them. It just seems a big engine bodes better for quick success on the pro scene. That's why I actually see Theodor Storm as a better chance for early points than Albert Philipsen. That's a great engine!
 
So. Alaphilippe. Starts at the TDU. Only ten of us have him. I kind of see him as a barometer of my chances this year. I view him as having Valverde like potential for late career points... clealry I am in the minority. But I like riders like him, who can mix it on mountains, in classics and in sprints.
Interested to hear thoughts... although I will obviously employ confirmation bias.
 
Personally I really like Alaphilippe, but after having him last year and not really seing any real reasons to his lackluster performances other than decline, I feared that I would do another Sagan-choice and pick a favorite rider when everything points to a rapid decline.
 
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Jan 10, 2021
17
10
2,560
My TDU team
FISHER-BLACK Finn
HODEG Alvaro
PLAPP Lucas
MIHOLJEVIC Fran
GIRMAY Biniam
VAN TRICHT Stan

Hope for FISHER-BLACK and PLAPP to get a good GC result and for GIRMAY to get some nice placings in the sprint. Everything else will be a bonus.
 
So. Alaphilippe. Starts at the TDU. Only ten of us have him. I kind of see him as a barometer of my chances this year. I view him as having Valverde like potential for late career points... clealry I am in the minority. But I like riders like him, who can mix it on mountains, in classics and in sprints.
Interested to hear thoughts... although I will obviously employ confirmation bias.
I don't necessarily think people are doubting his potential. It's more the combination of his price, the lack of easy explanation for his lackluster season in 2023 and the fact that there are a lot of enticing options around 500 points that feel both safer and also carry significant upside.

Alaphilippe chasing stages in the Giro instead of the Tour should bring in more points so that's at least a step in the right direction.
 
I don't necessarily think people are doubting his potential. It's more the combination of his price, the lack of easy explanation for his lackluster season in 2023 and the fact that there are a lot of enticing options around 500 points that feel both safer and also carry significant upside.

Alaphilippe chasing stages in the Giro instead of the Tour should bring in more points so that's at least a step in the right direction.

I think some pretty bruising injuries and illness compromised last year. I am hoping that he's closer to his normal form this year, But it is just hope. I too got Sagan'd the last 2 years.
 

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