One thing to expect it... harder to deliver, but he did that so it is all good so far.
- Mar 12, 2009
- 5,213
- 1,030
- 20,680
He has won the road race three years in a row now though, and the ITT for a 2nd time. Not sure what it says about the nation when a rider can win the RR three times in a row at such a highly ranked nation. My guess is that it has a lot to do with the time of year when the competition is held and that many riders are still in the midst of off-season training and are not planning on being in shape until later in the year while others are getting in shape for TDU etc.
Neither here or there imo, for this game every point counts. He is off to a good start. We will see what happens in TDU and onwards, but he has set himself up to score a decent profit if he can have a good season.
- Mar 14, 2011
- 1,127
- 24
- 10,530
First of all, a sincere thank you to @skidmark for organizing this game once again - the efforts cannot be underestimated! Found some time to submit a team again, even though the time spent in building my team decreases every year. And even in the years I was putting quite some time in it, I never cracked a decent placing, so again no high hopes for me. 
Not a full breakdown of my team as I do not have an impressive track record in this game, just a quick view on the riders in my team which are quite unique (i.e. picked 10 times or less)
Rider to watch this year for me is Tobias Halland Johannessen, considering that he is quite expensive and is not chosen too much. He really impressed me (again) last year, and given his broad skillset, I am hoping for the real breakthrough this year.
Julian Alaphilippe is in his last contract year so I expect a revival, so my hope is that he will have a great season in order to score one last, big multiyear contract in his career at one of the French teams. If injury free, I am sure we will see the 'old' Alaphilippe again - not the 2018/2019 level, but way better than last two years.
Having his first pro year (and grand tour) in the bag, I expect Lennert Van Eetvelt to take another step in his career. I think he will regularly compete for the win in some second tier races, and battle for top 10 GC placings in the biggest races - should be a nice profit after this season.
Ewen Costiou - always nice to have very rarely picked riders in my team, they are fun to follow. Being a quite allround strong rouleur, I hope he can grab quite some points in the French circuit. Not a fast man, but very strong rider.
Back at a Belgian Pro Conti team, where he is moreover the fastest sprinter, I hope that Sasha Weemaes will bounce back after an injury and ilness hampered year at Human Powered Health. In his last year of the season, Malaysia, he proved that he still got the speed in his legs (by beating among others the very fast De Kleijn).
Stian Fredheim, I honestly do not know him but based on his results, he is a decent sprinter - just not sure he will have a lot opportunities to sprint.
Then I have a few riders costing three points or less (Tsarenko, Soto, Sentjens and Andersen). Everything they get I consider as a nice bonus. Sentjens is one of Belgium's most promising talents, maybe we already see some glimpses of this at Alpecin's development team.
By reading this topic, I noticed quite some riders which I should have included in my team, but if you create your team in one go, it can be expected to miss some good (or even essential) picks.
Not a full breakdown of my team as I do not have an impressive track record in this game, just a quick view on the riders in my team which are quite unique (i.e. picked 10 times or less)
Rider to watch this year for me is Tobias Halland Johannessen, considering that he is quite expensive and is not chosen too much. He really impressed me (again) last year, and given his broad skillset, I am hoping for the real breakthrough this year.
Julian Alaphilippe is in his last contract year so I expect a revival, so my hope is that he will have a great season in order to score one last, big multiyear contract in his career at one of the French teams. If injury free, I am sure we will see the 'old' Alaphilippe again - not the 2018/2019 level, but way better than last two years.
Having his first pro year (and grand tour) in the bag, I expect Lennert Van Eetvelt to take another step in his career. I think he will regularly compete for the win in some second tier races, and battle for top 10 GC placings in the biggest races - should be a nice profit after this season.
Ewen Costiou - always nice to have very rarely picked riders in my team, they are fun to follow. Being a quite allround strong rouleur, I hope he can grab quite some points in the French circuit. Not a fast man, but very strong rider.
Back at a Belgian Pro Conti team, where he is moreover the fastest sprinter, I hope that Sasha Weemaes will bounce back after an injury and ilness hampered year at Human Powered Health. In his last year of the season, Malaysia, he proved that he still got the speed in his legs (by beating among others the very fast De Kleijn).
Stian Fredheim, I honestly do not know him but based on his results, he is a decent sprinter - just not sure he will have a lot opportunities to sprint.
Then I have a few riders costing three points or less (Tsarenko, Soto, Sentjens and Andersen). Everything they get I consider as a nice bonus. Sentjens is one of Belgium's most promising talents, maybe we already see some glimpses of this at Alpecin's development team.
By reading this topic, I noticed quite some riders which I should have included in my team, but if you create your team in one go, it can be expected to miss some good (or even essential) picks.
- Mar 14, 2011
- 1,127
- 24
- 10,530
Same - I expect a strong year from Moscon. Moreover, the depth of SQS' classic squad is not what it was before, so he will get quite some opportunities to score some big points.
Word is that he was flying at the first training camp.
Yup, he should have some opportunities there and say what you will about Lefevre but he is probably one guy that can put the fire back in Moscon. It is a better team and probably a better environment than the Astana team. It is worth a shot at his price.Same - I expect a strong year from Moscon. Moreover, the depth of SQS' classic squad is not what it was before, so he will get quite some opportunities to score some big points.
Word is that he was flying at the first training camp.
He came close to winning PR in 2021.
2022: He was sick during the spring and never came into form.
2023: Broke his collarbone in TDU, which ruined the spring once again. For some reason Astana thought it would be good to send him to both the Giro and the Tour. He ended up doing nothing.
Thats good news if true. A good spring and he should probably have a shot at making the squad for Italy in the Olympics. It would be a race that could suit him, if he is back in great shape.
I think the "for some reason" was clearly that they really went allin for Cavendish last year on Astana and Moscon was the best guy on the team to protect him, and he also did this very well with Cavendish praising his work. But of course that role/program meant he did not score much.
But for sure Quick Step has plenty others for such roles and will want to use him primaraly in classics and if he avoids bad luck in the spring like in 2022 and 2023 he should for sure become a quite good pick.
- Dec 31, 2017
- 1,301
- 842
- 12,680
Will be almost in profit after TDU and maybe in profit after Cadel Evans race
So for the past 10 season, having the Aussie RR-winner was amazing once (Gerro) and great once (Plapp '22), but in general not something which sets a team on a winning course:
Year | Winner | CQ-points that season | Change from previous year |
2023 | Plapp | 341 | -100 |
2022 | Plapp | 441 | 344 |
2021 | Cam Meyer | 155 | 35 |
2020 | Cam Meyer | 120 | -5 |
2019 | Michael Freiberg | 137 | 64 |
2018 | Alex Edmonson | 154 | -10 |
2017 | Miles Scotson | 195 | 153 |
2016 | Back Jobridge | 181 | 26 |
2015 | Heinrich Haussler | 412 | 175 |
2014 | Simon Gerrans | 1736 | 1225 |
I think you have to look at each rider individually though and what their potential is.
True, but I still think you can fairly infer that winning the Aussie Nats RR is not a sign that said rider will perform better than the preceeding season.
Nobody has said that though. Just that it is a good start for this individual rider. Whatever happens, happens.
- May 9, 2010
- 11,070
- 2,540
- 28,180
- Dec 31, 2017
- 1,301
- 842
- 12,680
You got it wrong and i will make it right!Well, that was my prediction last year
- Dec 31, 2017
- 1,301
- 842
- 12,680
List of winners are underwhelming though, great ones is the only great riders on this list
- May 14, 2009
- 3,275
- 1,138
- 16,680
In the past thee years Luke Plapp has earned 879 CQ points. Of these about one third (299) come from AUS nationals (ITT or RR) . In his best year, 2022, 21% of his CQ score came from results at the nationals.
If the 20% holds for 2024, he will get 750 points. Not bad, but maybe it's time he gets less than 20% of his annual CQ score from the AUS nationals.
If the 20% holds for 2024, he will get 750 points. Not bad, but maybe it's time he gets less than 20% of his annual CQ score from the AUS nationals.
- Dec 28, 2010
- 4,138
- 3,102
- 21,180
You guys are really starting to make me regret not sticking with Moscon for the fourth year in a row ...
Regarding Plapp, it was confirmed during the broadcast that he has completely shelved any track ambitions, as I thought I had read somewhere when researching my team.
- May 9, 2010
- 11,070
- 2,540
- 28,180
For fun, I tried calculating which riders are the most decisive in the game. I looked at their price compared to how many times they were picked. My thought proces was that the closer the rider is to "cut the field in half" the more important he is. We're 94 players, so for instance a rider picked 44 times is more important than someone picked 69 times (44 is closer to 47 which is half of 94). This might be methodically unsound, but it's the best I could come up with while drinking my morning coffee before work I'm sure there are better ways of calculating this, so if someone can come up with another - or better - way of measuring it, I'd be very interested in seeing it. I actually think I did this in a previous year and someone corrected my method then, but I don't remember when, who or why, haha. Feel free to criticize it though
Here's the top 20 most important riders according to this method:
1. Girmay
2. Hayter
3. Ayuso
4. Del Toro
5. Uijtdebroeks
6. Bernal
7. Plapp
8. Van Aert
9. Rodriguez
10. Demare
11. Sheffield
12. Turner
13. Carapaz
14. Mas
15. Pidcock
16. Lamperti
17. Martinez
18. Hart
19. Johannessen
20. Staune-Mittet
I'm sure there are better ways of calculating this, so if someone can come up with another - or better - way of measuring it, I'd be very interested in seeing it. I actually think I did this in a previous year and someone corrected my method then, but I don't remember when, who or why, haha. Feel free to criticize it though Here's the top 20 most important riders according to this method:
1. Girmay
2. Hayter
3. Ayuso
4. Del Toro
5. Uijtdebroeks
6. Bernal
7. Plapp
8. Van Aert
9. Rodriguez
10. Demare
11. Sheffield
12. Turner
13. Carapaz
14. Mas
15. Pidcock
16. Lamperti
17. Martinez
18. Hart
19. Johannessen
20. Staune-Mittet
- May 5, 2010
- 51,691
- 30,241
- 28,180
- May 9, 2010
- 11,070
- 2,540
- 28,180
Interesting approach. I would perhaps weight the price of the riders still a bit more. For example I would say that the performance of Ayuso (1023 points, 39 picks) will be way more important than del Toro (124 points, 47 picks). But in the ranking they are just one place away from each other.. But in general I like your idea..For fun, I tried calculating which riders are the most decisive in the game. I looked at their price compared to how many times they were picked. My thought proces was that the closer the rider is to "cut the field in half" the more important he is. We're 94 players, so for instance a rider picked 44 times is more important than someone picked 69 times (44 is closer to 47 which is half of 94). This might be methodically unsound, but it's the best I could come up with while drinking my morning coffee before work
Here's the top 20 most important riders according to this method:
1. Girmay
2. Hayter
3. Ayuso
4. Del Toro
5. Uijtdebroeks
6. Bernal
7. Plapp
8. Van Aert
9. Rodriguez
10. Demare
11. Sheffield
12. Turner
13. Carapaz
14. Mas
15. Pidcock
16. Lamperti
17. Martinez
18. Hart
19. Johannessen
20. Staune-Mittet
- May 5, 2010
- 51,691
- 30,241
- 28,180
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