The annual 'who wins the Tour de France poll' 2020 edition

[spalco]

Sivakov

Not impossible, but I would prefer Carapaz out of Ineos.

I do think it'll be Roglic though.

I would be rooting for Pinot, but only without "french national team"- or motorcycle-nonsense.

 

[RedheadDane]

I'm with you on Froome. On the spectrum of love to hate, I've been pretty close to the latter for the last decade. But: I would be happy to see him on the top step, especially given his team doesn't really believe anymore.

I'll bet my sanity that Froome isn't gonna win!

 

[Scarponi]

Hopefully a rider like Pinot or Quintana, because if they win you know it has been all out war instead of 900m Roglic sprints or Ineos trains.

 

[Jspear]

Interesting to see people putting Dumoulin over Bernal....at least for now that’s how the voting goes. I’ll still go with Bernal. Ineos are no different from other years. It’s all about the Tour. That means they pulled Bernal early enough to properly address his back issue, but he will be fine. They‘ll fine tune some thing’s and be firing on all cylinders. They picked the right Tour team. No special treatment or emotionally driven team picking. Just common sense using the best riders at your disposal. Bernal‘s got this.

 

[Breezy1985]

Not impossible, but I would prefer Carapaz out of Ineos.

I do think it'll be Roglic though.

I would be rooting for Pinot, but only without "french national team"- or motorcycle-nonsense.

Love how you are already trying to discredit Pinots potential win.

I would be rooting for Bernal but only without "TUE nonsense and Polish and Ecuadorian doms who sold their souls for cash"

 

[Gigs_98]

I voted Dumoulin but it's super difficult. I do think I might have made a heart over head pick but then again I'm really struggeling to say what the best head pick would be. I'll keep my opinion of Roglic being overrated (although of course I still definitely see him as a potential winner) and with Bernal it just really depends on how his back pain or whatever his issue at the Dauphine was gets handeled. If Bernal gets into top shape, he'll be very hard to beat though.

 

[spalco]

Love how you are already trying to discredit Pinots potential win.

I would be rooting for Bernal but only without "TUE nonsense and Polish and Ecuadorian doms who sold their souls for cash"

Come on. It's not inconceivable for all sorts of shenanigans to happen when a French contender has a legit chance at winning this race. Has happened in Giro and Vuelta too ( and many other races I'm sure).

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Who is even supposed to act as a “French National team?”. There probably won’t be another Frenchman within a km on the big climbs

 

[BlueRoads]

Who is even supposed to act as a “French National team?”. There probably won’t be another Frenchman within a km on the big climbs

Well...Guillaume Martin...but he might prefer a good result for himself.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Well...Guillaume Martin...but he might prefer a good result for himself.

In the unlikely event that Martin does a few pulls for Pinot, I would find it hard to consider that an unreasonable advantage when compared to the trains of doom his rivals will be sitting behind

 

[HelloDolly]

CArapaz should be listed as he could win

 

[Simurgh]

Heart (and therefore vote) says Pinot, but I think it is far more likely that Roglic or even Dumoulin will win. Form can change the coming weeks, but Jumbo-Vismas peak-SKY performances makes me think that a repeat of 2012 Tour boredom is far more likely than "this is the most open Tour in years". I think that the battle for the podium will be unpredictable and exciting, especially if JV strangles the race for the win - I can see for myself Pinot, Landa, Lopez, Nairo, maybe Bardet (if he can get himself together) and perhaps even the Heartbreaker from Dauphine (Martinez) all locked in a close battle for 2nd (if one of Dumoulin/Roglic doesn't take it, INEOS-style) or 3rd. Buchmann too, but I think that he will miss the Tour, sadly.

 

[jaylew]

Well...Guillaume Martin...but he might prefer a good result for himself.

Bardet was better the last stage so maybe he'll come into form right on time as well.

 

[Koronin]

At this point I want an injury report before making a decision. However, I'm tempted to go with "other" simply because it's 2020 and everything is screwed up this year.

 

[Pricey_sky]

CArapaz should be listed as he could win

When I did the poll last night he wasn’t even announced in the Tour team. I still don’t think he will win, given his goal was the Giro in 5 weeks can he be in good enough form over the first half of the race? He will be there to support Bernal.

That said, it’s been a crazy year, so it really wouldn’t shock me.

 

[BlueRoads]

What about López? I know he has been inconsistent and I would go for Roglic if I had to bet, but looking at some of the names I think he should be considered as having the same chance. He was really good at the Dauphiné and his time trial at the Algarve has not been too bad. Considering it is a mtf tt...
Who's going with him? The Izagirres, Fraile, Lutsenko...?

 

[42x16ss]

For me it's either Roglic or Dumoulin. Replace Kruiswijk at last years TDF with either of them in top form and Bernal gets his backside handed to him.

Bernal/Carapaz, whoever is better (probably Bernal ATM) will be second, and go down swinging.

Pinot to dig deep and take the fight to Ineos and Jumbo, but superior team depth will defeat him in the end, especially when the likes of Bennett, Kuss and Sivakov go berserk. Gaudu and Reichenbach need to be better.

If Pinot has yet another bad day/late injury I tip Landa to have his usual 3rd week burst that almost cancels out his tried and true terrible first week and scrape the podium, but hopefully Haussler guides him better than past teammates and he doesn't lose 3-4 stupid minutes early.

So my tip:

Roglic
Bernal
Pinot

But this could go anywhere.

 

[Summoned]

Voted Roglic, but only because of Bernal having dropped out of the Dauphiné. If Bernal does not have any ongoing issues, I would expect him to win.

 

[Anderis]

5 stars- nobody (for some reason I can't post 5 stars next to each other- they get turned into one)
****- Roglic, Bernal
***- Dumoulin, Carapaz
**- Pinot, Buchmann, N.Quintana, Pogacar
*- Bardet, Lopez, Landa, G.Martin, Martinez, Yates, Siwakow, Mollema, Kruijswijk

 

[johnymax]

5 stars- nobody (for some reason I can't post 5 stars next to each other- they get turned into one)
****- Roglic, Bernal
***- Dumoulin, Carapaz
**- Pinot, Buchmann, N.Quintana, Pogacar
*- Bardet, Lopez, Landa, G.Martin, Martinez, Yates, Siwakow, Mollema, Kruijswijk

I don't approve of this post. No Uran, no Porte, no Aru and no TJVG. Dude

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

5 stars- nobody (for some reason I can't post 5 stars next to each other- they get turned into one)
****- Roglic, Bernal
***- Dumoulin, Carapaz
**- Pinot, Buchmann, N.Quintana, Pogacar
*- Bardet, Lopez, Landa, G.Martin, Martinez, Yates, Sivakov, Mollema, Kruijswijk

Yeah it's weird. You have to put a space between them. Based on what we've seen, I'd go:
* * * * * Roglic, Bernal
****Dumoulin, Pinot
*** Carapaz, Quintana, Pogacar
**Porte, Buchmann, Lopez, Landa, Sivakov, Kruijswijk
*Yates, Aru, Uran, G. Martin, Martinez, Valverde

But I picked Dumoulin because I think his top form is higher than Roglic and Bernal and I think he's on his way there. My hope is:

1. Dumoulin
2. Pinot
3. Landa or Porte because it'd be nice to have a positive narrative about one of the talented eff ups finally putting it together from start to finish

 

[Koronin]

5 stars- nobody (for some reason I can't post 5 stars next to each other- they get turned into one)
****- Roglic, Bernal
***- Dumoulin, Carapaz
**- Pinot, Buchmann, N.Quintana, Pogacar
*- Bardet, Lopez, Landa, G.Martin, Martinez, Yates, Siwakow, Mollema, Kruijswijk

Valverde's form is bad enough he doesn't even get 1 star? This has to be a first.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Valverde's form is bad enough he doesn't even get 1 star? This has to be a first.

my bad

 

[Valv.Piti]

1. Valverde
2. Pogacar
3. Dumoulin

 

[Koronin]

my bad

I'm not arguing his form is off. It definitely is. If you listen to him his form is worse than Thomas and Froome's form. As much as I'd love to see him win it, it is highly unlikely. However, Kruijswijk may not make the team due to injury. However, I do think this is the first time he's been in a race and not given any star at all for a chance to win. He had stars for his attempt at Flanders.