- Oct 14, 2017
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Don´t think Carapaz will even try to contend for the GC. He did not have the climbing legs in Burgos. Crashed in Poland. Was mediocre in Lombardia. Still better than Thomas or Froome but not close to the other GC favorites.
Are posters picking him for a top spot because he is the 2nd in command for Ineos or based on his performance in last years Giro?
Personall I would go...
*** Roglic, Dumoulin
** Bernal, Pinot
*Buchmann, Quintana, Landa
Without the Dauphine crash Roglic would be in a tier of his own. Buchmann would move up to Pinots tier.
I was really impressed with Dumoulins performance in the Dauphine. He was getting better and better with each stage.
Was equally impressed with Buchmanns climbing. The Dauphine climbs did not suit him. Especially the uphill sprints. Wouldn´t be suprised if he is even better on a longer and harder climb.
Not really sure what´s up with Ineos. Feels like the gap between Bernal and Roglic was getting bigger with each stage they raced against each other. Maybe he has back issues, maybe he is over/under trained. I don´t think they can fix it in just one week. Nevertheless Bernal is still last years winner and is at his best in high altitude. If he limits his losses and peaks in the 3rd week he might be able to crack the Jumbo-train
Pinot looks good and I think if he finishes the race without crashing he will be on the podium. Last year he was the best climber in the first two weeks and even though I don´t think he will be able to repeat that performance he will be among the best again.
Quintana and Landa are the best of the rest. Quintana looked as good as ever in february and march and was solid in the Dauphine. Without the injury he probably would rank even higher.
Landa always finds his legs in the high mountains and finally is the sole leader.
Are posters picking him for a top spot because he is the 2nd in command for Ineos or based on his performance in last years Giro?
Personall I would go...
*** Roglic, Dumoulin
** Bernal, Pinot
*Buchmann, Quintana, Landa
Without the Dauphine crash Roglic would be in a tier of his own. Buchmann would move up to Pinots tier.
I was really impressed with Dumoulins performance in the Dauphine. He was getting better and better with each stage.
Was equally impressed with Buchmanns climbing. The Dauphine climbs did not suit him. Especially the uphill sprints. Wouldn´t be suprised if he is even better on a longer and harder climb.
Not really sure what´s up with Ineos. Feels like the gap between Bernal and Roglic was getting bigger with each stage they raced against each other. Maybe he has back issues, maybe he is over/under trained. I don´t think they can fix it in just one week. Nevertheless Bernal is still last years winner and is at his best in high altitude. If he limits his losses and peaks in the 3rd week he might be able to crack the Jumbo-train
Pinot looks good and I think if he finishes the race without crashing he will be on the podium. Last year he was the best climber in the first two weeks and even though I don´t think he will be able to repeat that performance he will be among the best again.
Quintana and Landa are the best of the rest. Quintana looked as good as ever in february and march and was solid in the Dauphine. Without the injury he probably would rank even higher.
Landa always finds his legs in the high mountains and finally is the sole leader.
- Jan 4, 2020
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Well, I don't think his form looked so extremely bad. But with some other's I think you don't exactly know what to make of them. You would not put them high on a list, but you would not completely rule out a huge surprise (people from Mollema to Aru). As Valverde is older than me
and thereby very old you automatically assume that him not being top notch is not just a question of momentary form but that aging is simply natural. But actually I would put Valverde somewhere between Mollema and Aru.
- Jul 6, 2014
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It's definitely going to be tough for him from his position in front of the tv. But it is Froome, if anyone can win without actually riding, he can......I'll bet my sanity that Froome isn't gonna win!
- Jun 1, 2015
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Three things:
- I applaud your consistent and vocal support for Valverde, who is certainly a legendary rider and beacon of bald success
- I think he is much more likely to win short or lesser events than the Tour at this stage, particularly given his displayed form, but 1 start seems acceptable
- I edited my post to give him 1 star
- Oct 14, 2017
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Well, I don't think his form looked so extremely bad. But with some other's I think you don't exactly know what to make of them. You would not put them high on a list, but you would not completely rule out a huge surprise (people from Mollema to Aru). As Valverde is older than me
I thought it was improving and that wasn't as bad as what we saw early in the year. If you listen to him you'd swear he was racing a totally different race than we were watching. Ack, you're making me feel old. I'm older than he is. I'm just a little younger than his oldest brother. Yes aging is natural, but he found his form to get his record Vuelta podium and that podium in the rainbow jersey that he wanted but was afraid to dream of. Now the funny part about everything you said and you'd still put him between Mollema and Aru likely says more about them than him.
Three things:
- I applaud your consistent and vocal support for Valverde, who is certainly a legendary rider and beacon of bald success
- I think he is much more likely to win short or lesser events than the Tour at this stage, particularly given his displayed form, but 1 start seems acceptable
- I edited my post to give him 1 star
- Thank you. Although he did fight for years to keep his hair. He seems to have given up on that about 2 or 3 years ago.
- I don't disagree. I think that age finally means something when it comes to him.
- Thank you.
- Nov 12, 2010
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- Nov 16, 2013
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Well, I don't think his form looked so extremely bad. But with some other's I think you don't exactly know what to make of them. You would not put them high on a list, but you would not completely rule out a huge surprise (people from Mollema to Aru). As Valverde is older than me
Valverde has always been older than you, so that argument has no merit
- Apr 30, 2011
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I fully expect Roglic to dominate in the style of Armstrong's last two wins. Even if he can, there's no need to ride away from everyone.
- May 3, 2010
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It's hard to make a good prediction with all those crashes and injuries we've had lately, not to mention the matters of double leadership or not in certain teams. Anyway here is my attempt:
- Egan Bernal: He still has a very strong team around him, with seven helpers who will sacrifice themselves without thinking of their own ranking. The high mountains in the final eight days suit him. I don't think his back problems are very serious.
- Primož Roglič: He looked the strongest in the preparation races, but maybe he peaked too early. He might be the strongest in the first two weeks, but fade in the Alps. The "Killer Wasps" can have a really strong train, but Dumoulin could be a moll, thinking of his own chances.
- Nairo Quintana: If he gets through the windy stages and if his knee is okay he might be strong in the high mountains. Those are two big ifs however...
- Thibaut Pinot: After last year he will be very motivated to break the curse, and he has a strong team. However he didn't look entirely convincing in the Dauphiné, and he's said to have back problems too...
- Emanuel Buchmann: I don't think his crash was too serious, but he hasn't made a big impression either. If he finds last year's form back he could finish high again.
- Miguel Ángel López: Astana has enough confidence in him to make him sole leader in his first Tour. He will probably be strong in the Alps, but there will also be stages where he loses time.
- Mikel Landa: For the first time the "freed" rider is the leader of his Tour team, but he hasn't made a great impression thus far. If he reaches his best shape in time he could have a great third week.
- Daniel Martínez: He was great on those short, steep mountains in the Dauphiné, but we don't know if he's ready to ride a GC over three weeks.
- Tadej Pogačar: One day after the Tour he will turn twenty-two, so he's probably too young for a podium.
- Richie Porte: If he avoids bad luck he should still be good enough for a decent GC. Even at his best a podium seems to optimistic however.
- Tom Dumoulin
- Richard Carapaz
- Bauke Mollema
- Guillaume Martin
- Julian Alaphilippe
- Pello Bilbao
- Pierre Latour
- Esteban Chaves
- Warren Barguil
- Marc Soler
- Wout Poels
- Adam Yates
- George Bennett
- Sepp Kuss
- Pavel Sivakov
- Enric Mas
- Romain Bardet
- Lennard Kämna
- Daniel Martin
- Ilnur Zakarin
- Aug 6, 2010
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Imagine if they reraced the 2012 route. Jumbo would be about a 90% chance to win...
As it is, they are probably still about a 40% chance to wear yellow in Paris (28% Roglic, 11% Dumoulin, 1% other).
As it is, they are probably still about a 40% chance to wear yellow in Paris (28% Roglic, 11% Dumoulin, 1% other).
- Nov 16, 2013
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Those 90 % would be 30% Roglic, 30% Dumoulin, 30% Van Aert.
Throw in a cobbled stage, and Van Aert would be the odds-on favourite
Red Rick
BANNED
- Feb 20, 2012
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- May 11, 2013
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Roglic obviously is no. 1 favorite but... there's only one TT which is at the very end of the Tour. For whatever reasons he tends to be quite average in TTs at the end of a hard GT. I'm still not convinced that on a hard multi-mountain stage he can keep up with the likes of Bernal, a healthy Pinot and Quintana version 2.0. But... he has a formidable team which will do their best to control everything.
Bernal, nothing special in the prep races but I think he has the ability to ride into a very good shape towards the end of the Tour, just in time when it matters. Interesting team, no available train and different options with Carapaz might make things more exciting. No 2 favorite.
Dumoulin looks to be coming back to his old self. He has what it takes to win it but also has a teammate named Roglic. I wonder how's his TT nowadays since regardless of the ridiculously small amount of TT Kms , it's quite possible that the time trial at the end will have an impact on the podium. No 3 favorite for me.
Then there's Pinot, Quintana and I'd say Pogacar who can profit from any mishap of the above mentioned favorites.
Bernal, nothing special in the prep races but I think he has the ability to ride into a very good shape towards the end of the Tour, just in time when it matters. Interesting team, no available train and different options with Carapaz might make things more exciting. No 2 favorite.
Dumoulin looks to be coming back to his old self. He has what it takes to win it but also has a teammate named Roglic. I wonder how's his TT nowadays since regardless of the ridiculously small amount of TT Kms , it's quite possible that the time trial at the end will have an impact on the podium. No 3 favorite for me.
Then there's Pinot, Quintana and I'd say Pogacar who can profit from any mishap of the above mentioned favorites.
- Jan 4, 2020
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Red Rick
BANNED
- Feb 20, 2012
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I think he didn't train TTs that much before the 2018 Tour after he had a rock in his elbow due to a training crash or something. Then there's the 2019 Giro where he was just overall weak in the 3rd weak.
I don't think he has really significant weaknesses in the high moutnains judging by Andorra and Col de Portet and all that stuff. Was probably the best rider in the final Pyreneean stage of 2018.
- Feb 23, 2014
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I like your analysis a lot and pretty much completely agree. I’d just take out Porte cause I think somehow he will fail. Dumoulin could work his way higher the GC if he isn’t forced to be a workhorse the whole time or if others crash/get caught up in bad luck ect.
- Jan 4, 2020
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I very much appreciate your post as I can now use it as an orientation to think of my own ranking.
I think I'll go for this: (at the moment, changes by the minute due to my bipolar heart and injuries and sicknesses everywhere)
- Roglic: He looked clearly the strongest. Best team. Profile fits him like a glove in my opinion. I don't worry about his peak, he was the no1 rider at the end of the last year because he was the best in that year, not just for two weeks. Only thing to worry: his injuries.
- Bernal: A little bit of back pain should not hurt too much if you can win the Tour. But what have Ineos done during the break? Have they prepared him well enough? He still (lol, like he's 35) has the quality and a very good, even if not the best, team. With the focus on Jumbo he could even profit if Ineos play it well and react to the situation.
- Dumoulin: Has the quality, the team and strategy could be his super-power. PdBF should be his if he wants it.
- Pinot: Did not look at his absolute best and his team looks weak for the mountains if Gaudu can't bring it on. Not the no1 for the time trial at the end. But he's strong enough to win. (And he's probably the one who "wants it the most".)
- Buchmann: Would need all things to fall into the right place. If Ineos, Jumbo and Pinot eat each other up he could sneak to the win. Best sneaker in the world. Looks so harmless, yet was consistently there in the last Tour and the Dauphiné until his crash. Injuries may have impacted his training, but not too bad. Has Kämna.
- López: Very, very explosive and that could be his huge advantage if it is a very controlled race where it's all about some seconds in the end. He would have to be consistent though and needs the others to fail.
- Pogacar: Very decently explosive. Can be good in the third weak. Tactics are his. Team does not look too bad. Not one of the top favourites, but not someone I would absolutely rule out. Some snow on the Grand Colombier in September?
- Sivakov: Looks actually more like a 2nd Ineos-option to me than Carapaz.
- Martin: I don't want to hype him, he's certainly not my no1 favourite. But he was 12th with Wanty. Is in form, no back pains, no knee pains. That's more than can be said of most. Besides I believe in people of his age being in the right age to win something big for the first time.
- Martínez: His beard makes him the ideal Alaphilippe of 2020. Meaning yellow for two weaks, then disappearing. His team, in this form, is a liability. (Okay, that's mean.) Otherwise... why not...
- Quintana: Who knows what to get from Quintana? Ever?
- Landa: I used to be kind of a fan... then I wondered if his teams had their good reasons to never trust him completely as a leader... some guys look great as domestiques, where they can surprise you all the time with their strengths and you won't look too closely when they are not having a great day. Dunno...
- Bardet: Did not look great. But certainly looked like he was going in the right direction.
I'm not giving anyone else a chance. You don't know who I am so you can't come to my house and hang up a poster "Haha".
Okay, Joker: Wout van Aert. If Roglic and Dumoulin crash in the first week and this super-team works for super-van Aert and everyone is eating up their next man and nobody looks at this guy who wins two stages, gets bonus seconds, alaphilippes his way through and just does not bonk, this can happen.
- May 5, 2010
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- Jun 1, 2015
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- Oct 14, 2017
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As we both are not pro athletes I guess we can deal with aging more relaxed.
There is that, although some athletes deal with easier than others. (Even top athletes.)
- May 14, 2011
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