A good analysis that I agree very much with. Might I just add that between Bernal and Roglic, I find that Bernal is the safest bet. I know it's a strange thing to say, given that Roglic has arguably looked the best of the two so far, but Bernal is just such a grinder on the mountains. He almost always looks laboured and yet he is almost impossible to drop in the high mountains. I think more question marks can be raised about Roglic in the high mountains, where I have not yet seen him produce huge performances like Bernal did in the Tour last year. The stage to Col de la Loze will be a key stage for this reason, I believe.
Outside of the single shortened stage Bernal wasn´t any better than Pinot or Buchmann in the mountains. Not really sure why everyone thinks that he can drop his opponents at will in the high mountains.