The annual 'who wins the Tour de France poll' 2020 edition

[skippo12]

A good analysis that I agree very much with. Might I just add that between Bernal and Roglic, I find that Bernal is the safest bet. I know it's a strange thing to say, given that Roglic has arguably looked the best of the two so far, but Bernal is just such a grinder on the mountains. He almost always looks laboured and yet he is almost impossible to drop in the high mountains. I think more question marks can be raised about Roglic in the high mountains, where I have not yet seen him produce huge performances like Bernal did in the Tour last year. The stage to Col de la Loze will be a key stage for this reason, I believe.

Outside of the single shortened stage Bernal wasn´t any better than Pinot or Buchmann in the mountains. Not really sure why everyone thinks that he can drop his opponents at will in the high mountains.

 

[hayneplane]

1. Roglic
2. Bernal

3. Pogacar

Honestly if Roglic and Bernal are fully recovered from the issues that caused them to leave the Dauphine early I think it will be a head to head like Contador-Rasmussen 2007 and Contador-Schleck 2010 with a decent scrap for the bottom step of the podium.

 

[Red Rick]

Outside of the single shortened stage Bernal wasn´t any better than Pinot or Buchmann in the mountains. Not really sure why everyone thinks that he can drop his opponents at will in the high mountains.

Yeah I think he's established himself as one of the top climbers, not as THE top climber, which is generally not enough in the Tour if you're TT deficient.

 

[fuiers]

I gave my vote to Dumoulin. He just looked the best at the last stage of Dauphine. Pinot and Roglic are total question marks at this moment. Like there has been many comments already about the fact that first time in ages there is no clear favourite. Whats not to like about that.

 

[ice&fire]

Outside of the single shortened stage Bernal wasn´t any better than Pinot or Buchmann in the mountains. Not really sure why everyone thinks that he can drop his opponents at will in the high mountains.

Bernal outclimbed all contenders on the Galibier the day before the shortened Iseran stage, where everyone else was as good as an injured Pinot.

 

[Potomac]

Sepp Kuss steals it while everyone else just looks at each other.

 

[Jspear]

Outside of the single shortened stage Bernal wasn´t any better than Pinot or Buchmann in the mountains. Not really sure why everyone thinks that he can drop his opponents at will in the high mountains.

Because he’s Colombian

 

[Red Rick]

Because he’s Colombian

Ryo lives on inside all of us.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Who is going to control the race with this list?

Jumbo and Ineos have the teams to control the race. In the first two weeks Jumbo might be more dominant, but that could change in the third week.

 

[Leinster]

I gave my vote to Dumoulin. He just looked the best at the last stage of Dauphine. Pinot and Roglic are total question marks at this moment. Like there has been many comments already about the fact that first time in ages there is no clear favourite. Whats not to like about that.

He looked best sitting on Tibopino’s wheel after everyone else had crashed out, tbf. I’d love to see him do it, but by the end of the Dauphiné it was really a case of “don’t read too much into this race, guys.” Unless you’re Dave Brailsford, of course.

 

[Tonton]

Jumbo and Ineos have the teams to control the race. In the first two weeks Jumbo might be more dominant, but that could change in the third week.

And that could help the rest if they neutralize each other with "you chase", "no you chase" calculations, trying not to burn ammo before the Grand Colombier stage.

 

[perico]

I voted for Dumoulin. Heart says Mas, but he’s nowhere near ready this year.

Dumoulin looked scary good in the Dauphiné I thought. I wouldn’t be shocked if Tom, Pinot, Roglic, or Bernal won, but only the first two am I somewhat sure are in great shape physically.

 

[Red Rick]

Ever since Contador retired I felt something was missing so I went out and compared Dumoulin of previous GTs to now in the Dauphine to do phat assessment.

He really, really skinny

 

[AlexNYC]

If Roglic is healthy, he's clearly the best positioned to win. This Tour is very different than the previous ones however, so I'm not sure how good an indicator dominance at the Dauphine will be. Like, I can see Bernal reaching his peak by the end of the second week and dominating like we haven't really seen him do so far.

My heart says this is a perfect Tour for Nairo to be a strong wildcard, but his injury, if bad, would really get worse as the road starts to turn up in the final week. So my wildcard is Pinot. He has the potential to be good everywhere, including the lone ITT stage, and should be getting better in the 3rd week.

 

[Koronin]

I'm still not sure who to pick because we still don't know how healthy/injured about half the contenders are.

 

[ice&fire]

I'd choose the NFI option if there was one

 

[Jacques (7 ch)]

Heart: Pinot, Alaphilippe, Rowe (well, he is Welsh)

Head: Bernal, Carapaz (SDB will want a one-two to show Mr Ineos he is still real) and third, Dumoulin

 

[Broccolidwarf]

If everyone was in perfect condition, I'd pick Roglic over Bernal....... but with both coming into the Tour injured - or just coming off an injury - and with big mountains early in the Tour, I actually think Pinot can do it this year.

 

[Anderis]

Final GC:

1. Martinez
2. Uran
3. Higuita
4. Roglic
5. Carthy
6. Bernal
7. Buchmann
8. Powless
9. G.Martin
10. Mollema

I'm not biased.

 

[Koronin]

I think I'm waiting until team presentations to make a pick. I'm leaning towards "other" just because it's 2020.

 

[Escarabajo]

Final GC:

1. Martinez
2. Uran
3. Higuita
4. Roglic
5. Carthy
6. Bernal
7. Buchmann
8. Powless
9. G.Martin
10. Mollema

I'm not biased.

For a second I thought you were listing the team list of EF Education.

 

[tobydawq]

Final GC:

1. Martinez
2. Uran
3. Higuita
4. Roglic
5. Carthy
6. Bernal
7. Buchmann
8. Powless
9. G.Martin
10. Mollema

I'm not biased.

What, no Tejay?

 

[pitchnduel]

One TT, and it's a mountain TT?

1. Bernal
2. Pinot
3. Roglic

 

[tobydawq]

One TT, and it's a mountain TT?

1. Bernal
2. Pinot
3. Roglic

It's not just a mountain TT. There are 30 flat kilometres before the climb.

 

[johnymax]

It's not just a mountain TT. There are 30 flat kilometres before the climb.

The 30 kilometers before the climb aren't completely flat. It's more a false flat and a gentle climb at times. Terrain that suits Dumoulin and Roglič among others.