hondated said:
So given all this , what can we expect to see today. A win or lose.
If we agree she's a doper then clearly given all this that's the last thing she will do today surely !
So if she wins its got to be because of her abilities, isn't it !
Or would it be more convenient for her and her future to just lose and let the sun set on this whole issue !.
Its going to be an interesting day even before they set off.
I am sure your all let me know if I am just being naïve.
It's difficult to say what Lizzie can do here, and what she does or doesn't do wouldn't prove anything either way.
The course is not ideally suited to her; the Giro is practically the only race she ever does where she's not the team's preferred option, and she never does the other mountainous stage races like the Emakumeen Bira or the Giro del Trentino. She's got great explosivity but has never been that competitive over longer climbs, so if she was to struggle it shouldn't prove anything as she's never been that strong on this type of course.
At the same time, Greg van Avermaet won yesterday and people are now saying, hang on maybe it wasn't as tough as we thought, and people like Emma Johansson come back into the reckoning. Emma has historically better climbing chops than Lizzie (she's won Bira, for example) but not that much more so than Lizzie, so given the phenomenal year she's been having it's not a huge stretch to imagine Armitstead can make it to the front group and fight out the win or escape from riders tired from trying to distance her late on. Lizzie is also an excellent descender (it's how she won the Trofeo Binda, the hardest one-day classic, climbing-wise, she has on her palmarès) and so the climbers (especially those who are poor descenders like Abbott) will need a big enough gap at the summit that she can't chase back on. So if she wins it isn't an enormous shock either.
Lizzie is absolutely not a rider to half-ass it either. She would never be entering a race to make the numbers up, especially when it's a race as important as this. She's here to win, quietly losing and letting the issue blow over won't even cross her mind. Notwithstanding that she probably genuinely believes it was somebody else's fault those tests got missed, she will absolutely feel that no matter what others may think (although it upsets her that people think she's not 100% honest when they find out she's been lying to them constantly for the last month), she's been cleared and there's no reason she should be questioned if she wins. She also may be motivated by spite and rivalry considering her reprieve, and her subsequent buck-passing and self-justification, have not been met with sympathy from within the bunch, in fact quite the opposite. And this may well have affected her preparation as well.
But the thing is, as she herself knows (and tearfully pointed out), if she wins, it opens up a whole new can of worms and people will never trust it. If she doesn't win, people (especially casual fans, Olympics-only fans and even among more dedicated cycling fans, those who just look at her status as World Champion and her successes this year and don't take parcours into account) will anticipate it's because she wasn't able to get away with cheating anymore. Even among those more dedicated fans (such as myself, not to be too self-aggrandizing, that's her job), the fact we now know about all these missed tests makes her very selective calendar and her alternation of dominant victory and sickness-related absence much more worthy of scepticism. And her behaviour around the missed tests is suspicious in and of itself, with so many seeming logic holes (she sets a time for her testing availability, then puts her phone on silent so she isn't disturbed during the specific time she said it was ok to disturb her?) and the seeming cover-up is such that it makes it hard to trust her, and the continual shifting of blame to others and defensive privacy-invading hypocrisy from her fiancée makes it hard to feel sympathetic to her.
Maybe those sections of the British press that want to keep the clean heroes story going on would try to sell an Armitstead victory as a redemption story, putting the trouble behind her - but given that there's now a growing feeling in the péloton that she shouldn't even be there and that this was hidden until a part of the press blew the lid off it, it would almost be an invitation to investigate further.
I'm afraid you aren't going to get any straightforward answers shown in today's road race. There are too many factors at play, and neither a gold medal nor an anonymous 15th place, nor even a tearful DNF, will clarify much.