Teams & Riders The Big 6

[proffate]

Didn’t you just lay out a bunch of reasons that back up my assertion though? Contador was ok to win one race with a mishap, but compounding mishaps did him in. To win 2 competitive GTs in one season, you need to largely avoid mishap for 40 race days. That seems elusive for anyone not named Armstrong. Even Froome nearly lost the Giro in 2018 due to a crash. But maybe 2009 Contador before his luck turned could have done the triple.

I mean Pog has managed 5 consecutive GTs without any big issues.

 

[Red Rick]

Didn’t you just lay out a bunch of reasons that back up my assertion though? Contador was ok to win one race with a mishap, but compounding mishaps did him in. To win 2 competitive GTs in one season, you need to largely avoid mishap for 40 race days. That seems elusive for anyone not named Armstrong. Even Froome nearly lost the Giro in 2018 due to a crash. But maybe 2009 Contador before his luck turned could have done the triple.

No I'm laying out that lesser riders than Pogacar came very close to a double despite picking the wrong year to try and despite some bad luck along the way

 

[Salvarani]

No I'm laying out that lesser riders than Pogacar came very close to a double despite picking the wrong year to try and despite some bad luck along the way

So your point is you wouldnt be shocked if wins the double? Cool.

Easier said than done, but he might.

This dicussion is just tedious though.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

No I'm laying out that lesser riders than Pogacar came very close to a double despite picking the wrong year to try and despite some bad luck along the way

I don't disagree with you, but there is also a heavy element of luck. Lance was astounding in that regard. I'm not a statistician, and I merely got an A- in statistics many years ago now, so smarter, more informed people can correct me, but here is my very simplified mathematical take on this, obviously built on some assumptions.

Let's assume the chance of an event disrupting prep before a GT is 10%, which seems way too low given that Remco and Vingegaard are disrupted for the Tour, Roglic was last year for the Giro, and Pogacar was last year for the Tour.

Then let's say, again conservatively, that the odds of a quest-ending mishap in a GT is 20%. Again, starting in 2023 and ignoring non-Big 4 riders, we had Remco get Covid in the Giro, Roglic crash hard and nearly lose the Giro as a result, and that was better than average, I would say, looking back at Roglic, Froome, Dumoulin, Contador, etc.

So then you get probability that a rider has a mishap before the Giro or during the Giro or before the Tour or during the Tour = probability that a rider has a mishap before the Giro + probability that a rider has a mishap during the Giro probability that a rider has a mishap before the Tour probability that a rider has a mishap during the Tour - the probability that a rider has a mishap before the Giro, during the Giro, before the Tour, and during the Tour = 10% + 20% + 10% + 20% - (10% x 20% x 10% x 20%) = ~59% chance that a rider has a disruptive mishap, even setting aside their relative strength to the competition.

The flaws in my assessment are:

• A good rider like Pogacar might have lower chances of a mishap than someone like Roglic
• My inputs (20%, 10%) are open to debate
• There's a chance my math is completely wrong because, again, I haven't done this in years

 

[jono]

I don't disagree with you, but there is also a heavy element of luck. Lance was astounding in that regard. I'm not a statistician, and I merely got an A- in statistics many years ago now, so smarter, more informed people can correct me, but here is my very simplified mathematical take on this, obviously built on some assumptions.

Let's assume the chance of an event disrupting prep before a GT is 10%, which seems way too low given that Remco and Vingegaard are disrupted for the Tour, Roglic was last year for the Giro, and Pogacar was last year for the Tour.

Then let's say, again conservatively, that the odds of a quest-ending mishap in a GT is 20%. Again, starting in 2023 and ignoring non-Big 4 riders, we had Remco get Covid in the Giro, Roglic crash hard and nearly lose the Giro as a result, and that was better than average, I would say, looking back at Roglic, Froome, Dumoulin, Contador, etc.

So then you get probability that a rider has a mishap before the Giro or during the Giro or before the Tour or during the Tour = probability that a rider has a mishap before the Giro + probability that a rider has a mishap during the Giro probability that a rider has a mishap before the Tour probability that a rider has a mishap during the Tour - the probability that a rider has a mishap before the Giro, during the Giro, before the Tour, and during the Tour = 10% + 20% + 10% + 20% - (10% x 20% x 10% x 20%) = ~59% chance that a rider has a disruptive mishap, even setting aside their relative strength to the competition.

The flaws in my assessment are:

• A good rider like Pogacar might have lower chances of a mishap than someone like Roglic
• My inputs (20%, 10%) are open to debate
• There's a chance my math is completely wrong because, again, I haven't done this in years

Not sure that's how the math works but your result is close enough.

Given your assumptions, I think you calculate the probability of avoiding a disruptive mishap at each step as a combined probability.

.9 * .8 * .9 * .8 = ~52%

 

[AmRacer]

The currently big 2 and a half.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I don't disagree with you, but there is also a heavy element of luck. Lance was astounding in that regard. I'm not a statistician, and I merely got an A- in statistics many years ago now, so smarter, more informed people can correct me, but here is my very simplified mathematical take on this, obviously built on some assumptions.

Let's assume the chance of an event disrupting prep before a GT is 10%, which seems way too low given that Remco and Vingegaard are disrupted for the Tour, Roglic was last year for the Giro, and Pogacar was last year for the Tour.

Then let's say, again conservatively, that the odds of a quest-ending mishap in a GT is 20%. Again, starting in 2023 and ignoring non-Big 4 riders, we had Remco get Covid in the Giro, Roglic crash hard and nearly lose the Giro as a result, and that was better than average, I would say, looking back at Roglic, Froome, Dumoulin, Contador, etc.

So then you get probability that a rider has a mishap before the Giro or during the Giro or before the Tour or during the Tour = probability that a rider has a mishap before the Giro + probability that a rider has a mishap during the Giro probability that a rider has a mishap before the Tour probability that a rider has a mishap during the Tour - the probability that a rider has a mishap before the Giro, during the Giro, before the Tour, and during the Tour = 10% + 20% + 10% + 20% - (10% x 20% x 10% x 20%) = ~59% chance that a rider has a disruptive mishap, even setting aside their relative strength to the competition.

The flaws in my assessment are:

• A good rider like Pogacar might have lower chances of a mishap than someone like Roglic
• My inputs (20%, 10%) are open to debate
• There's a chance my math is completely wrong because, again, I haven't done this in years

As @jono said the probability of avoiding mishap in this case would be 52% (so 48% of having a mishap). However, the total probability of mishap before/between Tours shouldn't be taken twice: in case of a double the time period while not riding any GT is actually smaller than in case of one GT so the probability in this case is lower (let's say 5% instead of 10%). Then

probability of avoiding a mishap for a one GT scenario is then 0.8*0.9 = 0.72 (so 28% of having a mishap)
probability of avoiding a mishap for a GT double is then 0.8*0.8*0.95 = 0.61 (so 39% of having a mishap)

If you want to be more precise you could assume some probabilities of a mishap per one week of preparation and per one week of a GT. If the second value is higher (that's your assumption) then 2 double GT scenario is always more dangerous than a one GT scenario regardless of exact assumed parameter values (more dangerous per statistical week and in total).

 

[scribers]

I think you can use actual data from races to determine how many 1. crash 2. crash abandon 3. crash abandon with long term effect. 4. DNS due to illness or training crash.

I am not doing that. I can barely figure out what I need to accomplish in any given day

 

[Netserk]

Van der Poel relegated after today. We only have a Big Duo: Pogi & Vingegaard.

 

[Froome]

Van der Poel relegated after today. We only have a Big Duo: Pogi & Vingegaard.

He still did a better classification than the others five today.

 

[AmRacer]

I think you can use actual data from races to determine how many 1. crash 2. crash abandon 3. crash abandon with long term effect. 4. DNS due to illness or training crash.

I am not doing that. I can barely figure out what I need to accomplish in any given day

Crash

 

[Eagle_Alps]

First time all of them 6 are together in the same race?
Will we see them all together in front on stage 1? Would be epic.

 

[Miha81]

First time all of them 6 are together in the same race?
Will we see them all together in front on stage 1? Would be epic.

Hopefully all in decent form and ready to race. Just the anticipation of the start of this years edition is worth waiting

 

[Peyroteo94]

Time to chance to Gigantic 1 and the Big 5

 

[Berniece]

Time to chance to Gigantic 1 and the Big 5

After 1 season? Seems very premature.

 

[peterfin]

It's alien vs predators. The predators lost the battle but in the end they will defeat the xenomorph and overcome even his acid blood.

 

[Bolder]

Seems very generous to keep Van Aert in

Could replace with Mads Pedersen or Hirschi? But I still think Wout is among the very, very best when healthy.

 

[Netserk]

Could replace with Mads Pedersen or Hirschi? But I still think Wout is among the very, very best when healthy.

Philipsen is 6th, but I think a group with him, Van Aert, Pedersen etc. make more sense than grouping any of them with the top dogs.

 

[rallybanana]

Time to chance to Gigantic 1 and the Big 5

Pogi is the Special One

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Was never the big six to begin with.

Pogacar
Vingegaard - MVDP - (Remco)
Roglic - (WVA)

Remco could also be in a tier between Vingegaard/MVDP and Roglic and WVA probably on the lowest step on his own.

 

[Berniece]

Was never the big six to begin with.

Pogacar
Vingegaard - MVDP - (Remco)
Roglic - (WVA)

Remco could also be in a tier between Vingegaard/MVDP and Roglic and WVA probably on the lowest step on his own.

It's not about ranking riders within this group, the big 6 is about riders that if they are at the start and in form, they will win. And that's still the case for all 6.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Was never the big six to begin with.

Pogacar
Vingegaard - MVDP - (Remco)
Roglic - (WVA)

Remco could also be in a tier between Vingegaard/MVDP and Roglic and WVA probably on the lowest step on his own.

This.

 

[AmRacer]

Was never the big six to begin with.

Pogacar
Vingegaard - MVDP - (Remco)
Roglic - (WVA)

Remco could also be in a tier between Vingegaard/MVDP and Roglic and WVA probably on the lowest step on his own.

This

 

[Keldergoat]

It's not about ranking riders within this group, the big 6 is about riders that if they are at the start and in form, they will win. And that's still the case for all 6.

I doubt that very much for WvA tbh. I love Wout, and his palmares is something to behold indeed, but in which top notch race is he going to be the top top favourite? Maybe P-R he's among there but he still hasn't won it.

 

[scribers]

After 1 season? Seems very premature.

Keep doing your thang. We need you ‘round here