Teams & Riders The Big 6

[Froome]

Interesting quote for someone called "Froome". It was 2018 I believe. What was the rider's name?...ow yes! Froome! Ow and there was also Dumoulin...

They won the Tour? Froome wasn't in his best shape after doing the Giro, Dumoulin is best the you have in +20 years, and they didn’t won anything.

 

[Vesica]

Well the point was, anyone close to winning both Giro and Tour. Froome was first and third, Dumoulin was second in both GTs. That's what I call close to winning.

 

[Froome]

Well the point was, anyone close to winning both Giro and Tour. Froome was first and third, Dumoulin was second in both GTs. That's what I call close to winning.

They were not close to winning the Tour. Thomas was always in a very comfortable control.

 

[Blanco]

People saying Pog will be gassed after the Giro have paid 0 attention to the last 15 years

Was Contador gassed in 2011?
Or in 2015?
Was Froome gassed in 2018?

 

[Cookster15]

Was Contador gassed in 2011?
Or in 2015?

Not sure about 2015 but Contador certainly did seem gassed in 2011 - 2011 Giro route was insane.

Dropped on Luz Ardiden (stage 12)
Dropped on Galibier (stage 18)
Attacked then couldn’t make those attacks stick (stage 19 to AdH).

Sure he lit the race up at other points but Giro fatigue showed in other ways.

What improves Pog’s chances of the double this year are:
1. A much easier Giro parcours
2. Easier competition at the Giro (at least on paper)*
3. No Vingegaard at the TdF.

*As for “detraining” himself, hard to see how three weeks of zone 2 at the Giro is going to lower Pog’s level - to the contrary.

Until this week I felt Pog’s chances of the double were far fetched. But with Vingegaard’s misfortune I think that changes everything. It’s game on even if 2024 might have an asterisk.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Not sure about 2015 but Contador certainly did seem gassed in 2011 - 2011 Giro route was insane.

Dropped on Luz Ardiden (stage 12)
Dropped on Galibier (stage 18)
Attacked then couldn’t make those attacks stick (stage 19 to AdH).

Sure he lit the race up at other points but Giro fatigue showed in other ways.

What improves Pog’s chances of the double this year are:
1. A much easier Giro parcours
2. Easier competition at the Giro (at least on paper)*
3. No Vingegaard at the TdF.

*As for “detraining” himself, hard to see how three weeks of zone 2 at the Giro is going to lower Pog’s level - to the contrary.

Until this week I felt Pog’s chances of the double were far fetched. But with Vingegaard’s misfortune I think that changes everything. It’s game on even if 2024 might have an asterisk.

Yup, Vingo's situation makes Pog's chances much better at the Tour. I think they will plan the double well and Pog will ride conservatively in the second part of the Giro (to save himself a bit). Still, I consider peak Roglic a very strong GT racer, who can beat non-peak Pog in July and finally win the Tour.

 

[Nick2413]

Getting through both races uninjured is the hardest part at this point, there’s probably a 20-40% chance of that knocking him off.

 

[Red Rick]

Was Contador gassed in 2011?
Or in 2015?
Was Froome gassed in 2018?

Contador crashed heavily twice IIRC and started 1'30 back as a result. He was bad in the Pyrenees, but really it's one bad day on the hardest stage in the last 20 years in the Tour de France that cost him the win. If he's on a good day he's there with Schleck and he probably wins the next day with just waiting for AdH and not doing any crazy attacks.

Imo people underrate how strong Contador was on the AdH stage in 2011. Record Telegraphe off of basically no setup, then almost completely solo Galibier, get caught, and still drop most of the other contenders on AdH despite pacing it terribly, starting AdH on like a 39'00 pace before exploding completely.

In 2015 he had to push to the max to win the Giro in which he crashed heavily, disolocated his shoulder and nearly quit all the while being attacked by Astana every frigging day. Then he had the negative IQ idea to race Route du Sud as a prep race for the Tour, before again crashes in the Tour.

Dumoulin and Froome getting podium in both in 2018 is literally all you need to know. It's easily possible, especially if Vingegaard doesn't show up in top shape.

 

[AnotherArmChair]

I dunno but maybe UAE will win all 3 Tours this year ?

I do think this is the best chance Roglic will ever have again to win the tour but he has to be lucky and stay on his bike

It will be close between him and Pog if there are no mishaps ...will it divide the nation of Solvenia I wonder ? Will families be torn apart ?

The Vuelta will be Ayuso, del Toro , Yates & McNulty beating up on Evenepol..with Kuss and maybe Landa along for the ride

 

[KZD]

One thing that might start happening with these long solos and dominant performances from the members of the big6, especially from Pogacar, Van der Poel and Vingegaard, is race organisers making easier courses and more backloaded routes trying to delay the eventual attack and likely win from these riders because with them racing less, it will be more difficult that they face each other during the season.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

the super big 1 (mega allrounder)

Pogacar

the big 2 (specialists gc & classics)

Vingegaard, Vd Poel

the almost as big 3

Roglic, Van Aert, Evenepoel

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

One thing that might start happening with these long solos and dominant performances from the members of the big6, especially from Pogacar, Van der Poel and Vingegaard, is race organisers making easier courses and more backloaded routes trying to delay the eventual attack and likely win from these riders because with them racing less, it will be more difficult that they face each other during the season.

that would be an exact counter that organisers made a few years earlier moving away from uphill and backloaded finishes like in LBL and Amstel to have more open races lol.

 

[Froome]

One thing that might start happening with these long solos and dominant performances from the members of the big6, especially from Pogacar, Van der Poel and Vingegaard, is race organisers making easier courses and more backloaded routes trying to delay the eventual attack and likely win from these riders because with them racing less, it will be more difficult that they face each other during the season.

Or maybe the "big 6" avoid crashes and facing each others more times.

We didn't saw yet this season a "fight" between them.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

well MSR.

Or maybe the "big 6" avoid crashes and facing each others more times.

We didn't saw yet this season a "fight" between them.

MSR right

 

[Froome]

well MSR.
MSR right

Probably the only one, but it wasn't a great battle.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Contador crashed heavily twice IIRC and started 1'30 back as a result. He was bad in the Pyrenees, but really it's one bad day on the hardest stage in the last 20 years in the Tour de France that cost him the win. If he's on a good day he's there with Schleck and he probably wins the next day with just waiting for AdH and not doing any crazy attacks.

Imo people underrate how strong Contador was on the AdH stage in 2011. Record Telegraphe off of basically no setup, then almost completely solo Galibier, get caught, and still drop most of the other contenders on AdH despite pacing it terribly, starting AdH on like a 39'00 pace before exploding completely.

In 2015 he had to push to the max to win the Giro in which he crashed heavily, disolocated his shoulder and nearly quit all the while being attacked by Astana every frigging day. Then he had the negative IQ idea to race Route du Sud as a prep race for the Tour, before again crashes in the Tour.

Dumoulin and Froome getting podium in both in 2018 is literally all you need to know. It's easily possible, especially if Vingegaard doesn't show up in top shape.

Contador could do the double in 2011 if he had a team, not a group of friends. He was isolated very easily in the mountains and had to close the gaps by himself all the time. Gardeccia, Zoncolan, the stage in Austria, etc. And of course his big ego and pride too were relevant in running out of energy (every champion has this). There is a stage that ends in a small uphill sprint and Scarponi almost wins the stage, meanwhile Contador struggled due to his terrible sprint but some people said he was a shadow of his former self (specially after his underwhelming FW) and the day after he completely destroy the peloton in a small hill and almost caught Gatto for the stage win. That was really a "Fu%% you" to all his criticals. He didn't need that but his pride was hurt. And the day after this stage, we all know what happened in Etna.

 

[Red Rick]

Contador could do the double in 2011 if he had a team, not a group of friends. He was isolated very easily in the mountains and had to close the gaps by himself all the time. Gardeccia, Zoncolan, the stage in Austria, etc. And of course his big ego and pride too (every champion has this). There is a stage that ends in a small uphill sprint and Scarponi almost win the stage, meanwhile Contador struggled due to his terrible sprint but some people said he was a shadow of his former self (specially after his underwhelming FW) and the day after he completely destroy the peloton in a small hill and almost caught Gatto for the stage win. That was really a "Fu%% you" to all his criticals. He didn't need that but his pride was hurt. And the day after this stage, we all know what happened in Etna.

I too remember the 'Contador bad' of Montevergine.

Gods we were wrong then

 

[Berniece]

Dumoulin and Froome getting podium in both in 2018 is literally all you need to know. It's easily possible, especially if Vingegaard doesn't show up in top shape.

and what people are saying is the Evenepoel and Roglic have a shot because Pogacar won’t be 100%. No one is saying Pogacar won’t win, people are saying that it will be a more interesting race.

 

[TrekCyclist]

and what people are saying is the Evenepoel and Roglic have a shot because Pogacar won’t be 100%. No one is saying Pogacar won’t win, people are saying that it will be a more interesting race.

Personally, I see Roglic maybe having a shot. Evenepoel not really, especially not with his injuries and losing prep time & quality the coming weeks.
Or somebody like Felix Gall, if we talk about possible surprises.

 

[KZD]

Or maybe the "big 6" avoid crashes and facing each others more times.

We didn't saw yet this season a "fight" between them.

We are still hopefully going to watch Pogačar vs Van der Poel in Liège, maybe with Roglič too, even though the former is the favourite in that race and I still hope for some sort of GC battle in the Tour and Vuelta.

The major Championships might actually end up being the best races of the season. The Olympic road race is on the schedule of Pogačar, Remco, Van der Poel and Van Aert so he could be in for an epic and then maybe we got round 2 with all these plus Roglič in the World Championships.

 

[Froome]

Personally, I see Roglic maybe having a shot. Evenepoel not really, especially not with his injuries and losing prep time & quality the coming weeks.
Or somebody like Felix Gall, if we talk about possible surprises.

Felix gall has a big problem. He is so bad on TT.

 

[gunara]

the day after he completely destroy the peloton in a small hill and almost caught Gatto for the stage win. That was really a "Fu%% you" to all his criticals. He didn't need that but his pride was hurt.

Lately everytime I remember that stage, the last 3k with an almost intact peloton with sprinters' leadouts and all, I imagine someone would manage to crash these days

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Contador crashed heavily twice IIRC and started 1'30 back as a result. He was bad in the Pyrenees, but really it's one bad day on the hardest stage in the last 20 years in the Tour de France that cost him the win. If he's on a good day he's there with Schleck and he probably wins the next day with just waiting for AdH and not doing any crazy attacks.

Imo people underrate how strong Contador was on the AdH stage in 2011. Record Telegraphe off of basically no setup, then almost completely solo Galibier, get caught, and still drop most of the other contenders on AdH despite pacing it terribly, starting AdH on like a 39'00 pace before exploding completely.

In 2015 he had to push to the max to win the Giro in which he crashed heavily, disolocated his shoulder and nearly quit all the while being attacked by Astana every frigging day. Then he had the negative IQ idea to race Route du Sud as a prep race for the Tour, before again crashes in the Tour.

Dumoulin and Froome getting podium in both in 2018 is literally all you need to know. It's easily possible, especially if Vingegaard doesn't show up in top shape.

I think the biggest issue is that the odds of a mishap go up tremendously. It’s already fairly decent odds of a crash, mechanical, split, etc mucking up one GT, then you add in a second. I agree that history shows that having sufficient form is possible in the absence of an extremely strong peer who is laser focused on one, though.

I dunno but maybe UAE will win all 3 Tours this year ?

I do think this is the best chance Roglic will ever have again to win the tour but he has to be lucky and stay on his bike

It will be close between him and Pog if there are no mishaps ...will it divide the nation of Solvenia I wonder ? Will families be torn apart ?

The Vuelta will be Ayuso, del Toro , Yates & McNulty beating up on Evenepol..with Kuss and maybe Landa along for the ride

I think Vingegaard will crush everyone in the Vuelta after either a subpar or absent Tour.

 

[Red Rick]

I think the biggest issue is that the odds of a mishap go up tremendously. It’s already fairly decent odds of a crash, mechanical, split, etc mucking up one GT, then you add in a second. I agree that history shows that having sufficient form is possible in the absence of an extremely strong peer who is laser focused on one, though.

I think Vingegaard will crush everyone in the Vuelta after either a subpar or absent Tour.

Nah I disagree. The big reason it hasn't happened vs Pantani is that the guys that could do it wouldn't try it at the right time for reasons.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Nah I disagree. The big reason it hasn't happened vs Pantani is that the guys that could do it wouldn't try it at the right time for reasons.

Didn’t you just lay out a bunch of reasons that back up my assertion though? Contador was ok to win one race with a mishap, but compounding mishaps did him in. To win 2 competitive GTs in one season, you need to largely avoid mishap for 40 race days. That seems elusive for anyone not named Armstrong. Even Froome nearly lost the Giro in 2018 due to a crash. But maybe 2009 Contador before his luck turned could have done the triple.