The Cav SKY drama

[Race Radio]

Germany's last reported quarterly growth figure was 0.1%

I will accept I have been lazy and forgotten that journalists switch between quarterly and annualised growth rates because they're innumerate, so my numbers probably need dividing by 4, but that doesn't change the stark contrast particularly.

Very hard to look at the charts and not see that Germany is in far better shape
Germany
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth-annual

Ireland
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/gdp-growth

Add in all the other metrics, unemployment, debt, interest. etc and Germany is on far stronger footing. They are doing this largely on the base of high end manufacturing.

 

[LugHugger]

What does that have to do with anything?

I was merely pointing out the irony of your comments given the inability to resolve the recent political empasse in Belgium. And the Chinese perspective.

Anyhoo, I'm very interested in hearing your thoughts on whether Cavendish ends up at Sky or QSOP.

 

[El Pistolero]

I was merely pointing out the irony of your comments given the inability to resolve the recent political empasse in Belgium. And the Chinese perspective.

Anyhoo, I'm very interested in hearing your thoughts on whether Cavendish ends up at Sky or QSOP.

Cav will go to Sky obviously.

Ps: it's not my fault that there is a political empasse in my country. I don't have anything to do with it. Besides, that political empasse has been broken last week

 

[LugHugger]

Cav will go to Sky obviously.

Ps: it's not my fault that there is a political empasse in my country. I don't have anything to do with it. Besides, that political empasse has been broken last week

I agree wholeheartedly

 

[richwagmn]

Cav will go to Sky obviously.

Ps: it's not my fault that there is a political empasse in my country. I don't have anything to do with it. Besides, that political empasse has been broken last week

The question is, how do you bring Cav to the TDF and go after a GC position at the same time? Cav needs a entire team just to support him.

You can't do both. If Cav is on your team, you're either not interested in a GC victory or if you are, Cav is on his own and gets little to no support from the team.

If I'm a GC team (which Sky fancies itself as), there's no way I want Cav in the TDF.

 

[JRanton]

The question is, how do you bring Cav to the TDF and go after a GC position at the same time? Cav needs a entire team just to support him.

You can't do both. If Cav is on your team, you're either not interested in a GC victory or if you are, Cav is on his own and gets little to no support from the team.

If I'm a GC team (which Sky fancies itself as), there's no way I want Cav in the TDF.

Why does Cav need an entire team to support him?

 

[richwagmn]

Why does Cav need an entire team to support him?

Look at his TDF victories. His team chases down the break and does an amazing lead out. That's energy the team would need to support their GC rider.

Have you ever seen Cav solo to victory? I've seen Boonen, Hushvold, Cancellara do it. I've never seen Cav do it. He simply doesn't win without a team to hold his hand for the whole race.

Cav's the fastest man over 200m. And that's it. Without a dedicated lead out train, he's not going to have the same success.

 

[Eric8-A]

In that case, GreenEdge would be his best bet. That team's packed with sprinters.

 

[Ragerod]

Look at his TDF victories. His team chases down the break and does an amazing lead out. That's energy the team would need to support their GC rider.

Have you ever seen Cav solo to victory? I've seen Boonen, Hushvold, Cancellara do it. I've never seen Cav do it. He simply doesn't win without a team to hold his hand for the whole race.

Cav's the fastest man over 200m. And that's it. Without a dedicated lead out train, he's not going to have the same success.

Cav needs two or three guys to chase down the break but he doesn't need them to do an amazing lead-out to win most of the time.

 

[hfer07]

so..........
when is he going to announce his transfer to Sky? I mean-the differences in sponsorships & advertisement contracts/fees should have been worked out by now.....
BTW I just read an interesting piece from Pro-Cycling about the dismantle of HTC-basically the team ceased to exist due to "Stapleton's greed" and now with more details unveiled, I find Cavendish position more understanding on why he's so stubborn to secure his financial profits at all costs....

 

[JRanton]

Look at his TDF victories. His team chases down the break and does an amazing lead out. That's energy the team would need to support their GC rider.

Have you ever seen Cav solo to victory? I've seen Boonen, Hushvold, Cancellara do it. I've never seen Cav do it. He simply doesn't win without a team to hold his hand for the whole race.

Cav's the fastest man over 200m. And that's it. Without a dedicated lead out train, he's not going to have the same success.

He doesn't need to ''solo to victory''. He just needs to be sat on Matt Goss's wheel with 200m to go after GreenEdge have helped bring the break back. Look at the 2010 Champs Elysees finish. Renshaw had already been sent home and Cav only had Tony Martin with him heading into the last 2km. Martin dropped Cav off on about the 8th wheel from the front and he went on to absolutely destroy everyone in the sprint. The thing with Cav is that he's also the best sprinter at positioning himself without a train and still going on to win. The HTC train minimised the risk of Cav not winning almost to the ridiculous extent that he was dead cert to win every sprint finish. Without that train he'll win less (probably) but he's still going to end up with 3/4 stage wins and the likes of Eisel and EBH will do a pretty good job for him in the sprints anyway.

Sky will probably have to sacrifice a few stage wins with Cav in order to have enough support for Wiggins/Froome in GC. But they'll be happy to take that risk because getting a British rider on the TDF podium, or even on the top step, would be absoutely huge for Sky and British cycling. And even if Wiggins/Froome flop then you still have the 3/4 Cav stage wins to fall back on.

 

[memyselfandI]

Zabel and Ullrich in same team worked well? Why not Wiggo and Cav?

 

[Tei6chai]

Zabel and Ullrich in same team worked well? Why not Wiggo and Cav?

Well, you have to admit the possibility of some tension of interests (hence, Wiggin's whineing), but it's quite do-able, given Sky's squad.

What amazes me, is the persistence in this thread of the nonsense meme that Cav needs a train ... despite 4-5 seasons of evidence to the contrary.

Winning sprints is hardly ever about top-line speed. It's mostly about positioning and timing ... and Cav stands head and shoulders above almost everyone else in those skills.

If he's there in the bunch with 500m to go, you'd be a fool to bet against him.

Arguably, he only looks so fast and well-positioned, because of his timing.

The recent WC was a classic example: he had the guts and the nouse to drop off his own lead-out (to maintain tactical advantage), then squeeze through an almost impossible gap, then launch earlier than he wanted to, betting that the line would come before Goss's counter-attack could catch him. Shere sprinting perfection.

In most GT sprint stages, he's not always going to need a whole team to chase, because several other teams will have their own reasons for doing so (like Greenedge), and he has never needed a train.

As someone else pointed out, the HTC train merely eliminated doubt.

 

[AussieGoddess]

What amazes me, is the persistence in this thread of the nonsense meme that Cav needs a train ... despite 4-5 seasons of evidence to the contrary.

...

The recent WC was a classic example: he had the guts and the nouse to drop off his own lead-out (to maintain tactical advantage), then squeeze through an almost impossible gap, then launch earlier than he wanted to, betting that the line would come before Goss's counter-attack could catch him. Shere sprinting perfection.

you cannot seriously use the WC as an example that Cav doesnt need a train!!!

He needs a TEAM to work for HIM ... the whole stage long. That isnt just someone to position him at the end of the stage - you are right, in some instances he has shown that he can do that well enough himself. But the team does a whole lot more than just guide him to the line. Controlling the race, bringing back the break, making the race one which Cav can win .... THAT is what HTC has done a lot of in the last 4 years, and is certainly what GB did a whole lot of in the WC just gone.

With the whole field riding against you - you need a team to do it on your own. You think any other team is going to chase down a break if it means bringing Cav to the finish?

 

[Straßenrennen]

With next year tour looking flatter than my bikes tyres at the moment, i would say that no GC team can allow any breakaway to get to far down the road, so theoretically then sky, greenedge or whoever will only have to pull the last 30k to pull back the last 3-4 minutes if they sit on there hands the rest of the time. Just my thoughts.

 

[hatcher]

What Cav has had, and what Cav needs, are not necessarily the same thing. If GE (plus one Sky, one Lotto, one Garmin etc) do the chasing for 160k, while Cav, Eisel, and EBH sit in the peloton, is Cav's chance of the win lessened?

 

[euanli]

I forgot "Whatever team Cav is on" is the only one with a sprinter and the only one who are interested in chasing a breakaway.

I do not expect Garmin, Lotto and Greenedge to gamble that much on Sky pulling back every breakaway. In fact if I was a DS in Sky I would call their bluff, and put a man in the breakaway. As much as we are used to seeing HTC pulling on the front, we also always see a Garmin or Sky rider in there as well, ready to help. More than one team are always interested in the break coming back.

 

[Benotti69]

you cannot seriously use the WC as an example that Cav doesnt need a train!!!

He needs a TEAM to work for HIM ... the whole stage long.

WC is not a good example as it was a sprinters WC and none of the others teams had put all their eggs in their sprinter basket. TeamGB gambled on keeping control for the whole race and it paid off, but if Cav didn't win they would have looked foolish.

A GT will be different. Too many teams will need to win stages to keep sponsors happy so on flat stages more of a chance of more than 1 team chasing to bring it all together for a sprint. HTC again put all their eggs in the Cav basket for flat stages and then TT stages. They wanted lots of stage wins rather than overall.

It is sprinter positioning that is the most important aspect of getting to the line first. EG look at how fast Greipel came for a 3rd place. Imagine he had the positioning sense of Cav, he would be WC.

That isnt just someone to position him at the end of the stage - you are right, in some instances he has shown that he can do that well enough himself. But the team does a whole lot more than just guide him to the line. Controlling the race, bringing back the break, making the race one which Cav can win .... THAT is what HTC has done a lot of in the last 4 years, and is certainly what GB did a whole lot of in the WC just gone.

With the whole field riding against you - you need a team to do it on your own. You think any other team is going to chase down a break if it means bringing Cav to the finish?

I think Cav will do more than ok in a team where he has only 2 or 3 guys to look after him for the sprints. If not then OPQS, Greenedge and Garmin will be chasing the breaks for their guys.

He has a lot of experience of riding in the peloton and knows where to sit out of the wind how to follow wheels to the front etc...the only problem will be if he punctures and needs help to chase back on or during winding stages where echelons form.

 

[Benotti69]

I forgot "Whatever team Cav is on" is the only one with a sprinter and the only one who are interested in chasing a breakaway.

I do not expect Garmin, Lotto and Greenedge to gamble that much on Sky pulling back every breakaway. In fact if I was a DS in Sky I would call their bluff, and put a man in the breakaway. As much as we are used to seeing HTC pulling on the front, we also always see a Garmin or Sky rider in there as well, ready to help. More than one team are always interested in the break coming back.

If i was sky i would expect the bluffs and let others work for the win. If sky were smart they would put a man in the breaks too so they dont have to work.

 

[hatcher]

Yeah, unlike HTC Sky will have a second card to play, and that's a huge thing when it comes to responsibility to chase. Teams won't be able to just sit in safe in the knowledge that Sky has no choice but to come through.

I'm sure Sky will help any chase (they did even when racing against Cav), and I'm sure in certain races outside the Tour Cav will be the main guy, and Sky will use HTC/GB tactics. Just like any team with a top class sprinter will.

 

[patterson_hood]

Top 10 I can agree with, but some of these other names in the top 30 and top 20 I have never heard of in my life. If this is about contracts, well Cav isn't the best earning cyclist by a long shot. Not with his old contract and most likely not with his new contract.

And I don't have a clue who Mahendra Singh Dhoni is(and Anthony as you said).

Dhoni is a cricketer, I don't know your nationality so maybe cricket isn't a big sport where you are.

I guess I didn't explain myself very well. I don't mean that it is based on contracts, but contracts are a very good indicator of how much sponsorship a sport has and sponsorship is a very good indicator of a sports marketability. For example Dhoni, who is an Indian cricketer has massive marketablility because of the number of people who love cricket, particularly in India. Baseball contracts are massive because baseball is on pretty much every night during the season and is the American national past time. Huge market with massive buying power so massively marketable athletes.

Sorry for the late reply and if anyone else has already said this.

 

[Tei6chai]

you cannot seriously use the WC as an example that Cav doesnt need a train!!!

I can, and I did.

There's a huge difference between the concept of a 'train' and the concept of a 'team'.

Cav did not have a train at the WC.

He needs a TEAM to work for HIM ... the whole stage long.

Nope, as others have observed, relatively few breaks in flat stages/races are chased down by one team alone.

HTC's 5-7 men on the front tactics (and GB's for that matter) are comparatively rare.

In fact, I haven't seen the whole of one team ride on the front from start to finish since the Italians did it at Zolder ... which makes it roughly a once in a decade occurrence

 

[William H]

It depends if the other teams have faith in their sprinters to beat Cav, or if they'll just let the break win.

 

[AussieGoddess]

hmm - so the Italians did it for Cipo ... and HTC did it for 5 long years for Cav. Its not that rare.

My point is - he is the absolute best. He doesnt need a lot by the end thats true, but many of the teams simply will not chase the break if it means bringing Cav up. It will be like RVV and PR this year with Cancellara ...and like the Ardennes and other hilly races with Gilbert. Orders will be 'dont work with Cav" (or in this case, make sure you get in the break as we will not be chasing!!!)

 

[woodie]

hmm - so the Italians did it for Cipo ... and HTC did it for 5 long years for Cav. Its not that rare.

My point is - he is the absolute best. He doesnt need a lot by the end thats true, but many of the teams simply will not chase the break if it means bringing Cav up. It will be like RVV and PR this year with Cancellara ...and like the Ardennes and other hilly races with Gilbert. Orders will be 'dont work with Cav" (or in this case, make sure you get in the break as we will not be chasing!!!)

If a team with a sprinter misses the break they will chase, HTC was always chasing breaks so the other teams could sit safe in that knowledge. If the team didn't have faith in their sprinter they wouldn't take them to the tour. Cav can be beaten, it's hard, but it can happen. Teams would be stupid to say "lets not chase even though we could win"

The mentality of a sprinter means their teams will chase