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The Cycling Betting Thread

Page 26 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
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F

Ferminal

Jul 3, 2009
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Rodriguez @ 7.5
Rodriguez over Sanchez @ 2.55

I can only guess the odds are like this because of what happened last year on this stage. But all things equal, they are very equal in climbing ability. I would have Rodriguez ahead on the steeper gradients near the top. Purito needs time if he wants a good GC finish, he will attack and be tough to chase down.

Hesjedal over Cunego @ 2.00

Ryder seems fairly strong this week, if anything, Cunego will be the one more likely to drop on the climb. By luck or otherwise, Hesjedal has finished ahead of Cunego (on same time) on first three stages.
 
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Sasquatch

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So very tempted to take Horner at Betfair to win overall. Can't see Samu or Purito putting enough time into Horner and Kloden for the time trial. One of the Shacks win it. Could back both.
 
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bohino11

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Sasquatch said:
So very tempted to take Horner at Betfair to win overall. Can't see Samu or Purito putting enough time into Horner and Kloden for the time trial. One of the Shacks win it. Could back both.
Click to expand...

Ye, I got Horner at 18/1 prerace. Was hoping the bookies would put up in running overall prices so could see what price should be looking for on betfair. Backing kloden would cover my bet i think but i think horner is gonna take the overall still. Think he will have very similar level of tt to kloden after he did very well on the same type of tough hilly tt last yr. Also think he will get some seconds today having put in a serious bid on this exact finish last yr. Radioschack would surely prefer an american winner anyway.
 
Squire

Squire

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Squire said:
Pais Vasco, stage 4

Klöden over Gesink @ 1.71
Click to expand...

Did a few livebets as well. Went close with Vino ftw, and was stupid enough to take Frank over Tondo when Leopard pushed at the bottom of the climb.

Vinokourov over Seeldraeyers @ 1.85
Vinokourov @ 45
Sanchez Pimienta @ 11
F.Schleck over Tondo @ 1.50

All in all a small profit, but I'm not very pleased.
 
Squire

Squire

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Was planning to sit out tomorrow's stage, as I'm convinced it will end in a breakaway win. But some of the odds are a bit too attractive despite my breakaway prediction. Not sure you can get the Freire one anymore. It quickly shortened at Paddypower.

Pais Vasco, stage 5
Freire @ 5
Ligthart over Gavazzi @ 3.13
Ponzi over Ratto @ 2
 
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Badeend

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Pozzato 1.704 over Eisel @Pina

Yes Eisel finished 14th in RVV but that was a sprint of a pretty big group. Didnt see him being impressive during the race.
Eisel did great in 2006 but since then he didnt come closer then 5 minutes behind the winner.

2010: 38th - 9'33
2009: 47th - 6'43
2008: 17th - 5'20
2007: 65th - 12'21
2006: 5th - 3'24

Pozzato can fight for a top 5. If Eisel can repeat 2006 that would be a little miracle imo.

2010: 7th - 3'46
2009: 2th - 47'
 
Squire

Squire

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Badeend said:
Pozzato 1.704 over Eisel
Click to expand...

I also got that one yesterday at Bet365.
Been collecting a few P-R bets during the week. Doubt anything interesting will come up tomorrow. Depending on Sportingbet's h2hs. I have these for Sunday:

Pozzato over Eisel @ 1.72
Ballan over Quinziato @ 1.33 (can see no way Ballan could lose this)
Cancellara @ 2.50
Haussler over Sagan @ 1.65

If I wanted, I could back The Field over Cancellara @ 1.62 at Centrebet and be guaranteed a small profit, but I prefer risking that the Canc might lose for a bigger profit.
 
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Sasquatch

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Squire said:
All three lost after the DQ. Why did he have to push? A Freire win would have covered my two h2hs. Bad day.

Pais Vasco, stage 6 TT
Intxausti over Hesjedal @ 2
Porte over Leipheimer @ 1.66
Tondo over Gesink @ 2
Click to expand...

I didn't bet Squire but query your book.

They usually have rules saying that post race disqualifications don't count and will pay out the first over the line. Not sure on the exact terminology or their interpretation of the rule, but query it with them.
 
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Sasquatch said:
I didn't bet Squire but query your book.

They usually have rules saying that post race disqualifications don't count and will pay out the first over the line. Not sure on the exact terminology or their interpretation of the rule, but query it with them.
Click to expand...

no, it's always the Podium result that counts and it was Gavazzi, who was on there
 
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MADRAZO

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Squire said:
That's correct. Although they did pay out at first, but then resettled the bet. What would have happened if I had withdrawn the money before the resettlement? My account in red?
Click to expand...

Yes.

They propably would/could not demand you to pay them back if so, but if you would put in new money to the account they would go to cover the red figures first.
 
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Ferminal

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I had a bad day with the H2Hs.

Most involved in crashes, or just missing from the race in general. A few refunds and a few losses.

Saved my day by picking JVS during the race, with around 35km to go. Almost in rage at how the race had unfolded.

All my best wins this season have come from stage or overall bets: Meyer TdU (41), Gesink Oman (4) Evans T-A (13 and 17), Goss P-N (7) and M-SR (18 and 21), Vino (23) and now Vansummeren (14). Which seems a less sustainable, having to wait around to find semi-outsiders at juicy odds, and having them actually winning. As opposed to consistently picking H2H winners. It will be harder to make money this way in the GTs.

With the H2Hs I think I'm trying to pick too many, too often. Picking too many marginal matchups and just "hoping" that the line calls will balance each other out.

But a lot of it is for the fun of having lots of riders to look out for, or the occasional fanboy selection.
 
Squire

Squire

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A bit of a round-up. Pais Vasco was on the plus side overall, stages and GC put together. My stage races tend to go well, but one-day races are mostly disastrous except the magnificent Milan - Sanremo. Paris - Roubaix was highly unsuccessful. Two of the h2hs lost on DNFs and Cancellara marked out.

Pais Vasco, overall
Martin over Klöden @ 2.25
Rodriguez over Cunego @ 1.80
Horner over Leipheimer @ 1.83

Stage 6 TT
Intxausti over Hesjedal @ 2
Porte over Leipheimer @ 1.66
Tondo over Gesink @ 2

Paris - Roubaix
Pozzato over Eisel @ 1.72
Ballan over Quinziato @ 1.33
Cancellara @ 2.50
Haussler over Sagan @ 1.65

All bets are roughly the same stakes.
 
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Museeuw

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De Brabantse Pijl

Gilbert over Freire @ 1,85 (Victor Chandler)

This should be good if this is not preparation race for Gilbert. It would be good idea to check Pinnys offer when their site works again...
 
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