The Cycling Betting Thread

[Leadbelly]

TdS Stage 3

Velits 67ew with PP

It's deja vu all over again with this bet . Pete's always got a decent chance with a sprint from a reduced group, let's just hope he can hang on over the climb.

 

[richard_91]

Porte in to 20/1 for the Tour on WH
With Froome at below evens I'm looking for e/w placers, he's been coming in and in so might pull the trigger on this now

 

[willbick]

perhaps a better time to 'pull the trigger' wudda been just after he won paris-nice when he was 300/1

 

[Pulpstar]

300-1 !

Thats ridiculous for a rider of Porte's quality.

Got him at 100-1 myself.

 

[Leadbelly]

Kristoff at 23 with PP for tomorrow's stage (5th or 6th time I've backed him this year).

Seems as in form as anyone else (if not better) beating EBH with ease in ToN a few times. Sagan will probably win, but he maybe wasn't sprinting as well as he would have wanted in ToC. Goss is having another uninspiring year. It doesn't seem selective enough for Degenkolb. So I'd have AK as maybe second or third favourite.

 

[willbick]

I hope Moreno and Spilak will be in the tour defrance coz ive backed them both on GC at big prices!

 

[karlboss]

For those interested using there is a no lose situation on the green jersey, Sagan 11/10 with paddy power, and Cavendish 23/20 with william hill. Well not no lose, but what are the chances of someone else getting up?

Boring I know, and most betters I know don't go in for guaranteed small money.

 

[wirral]

For those interested using there is a no lose situation on the green jersey, Sagan 11/10 with paddy power, and Cavendish 23/20 with william hill. Well not no lose, but what are the chances of someone else getting up?

Boring I know, and most betters I know don't go in for guaranteed small money.

Saw that and I had the same thought. It works out around a 6% return. Back today and you'll be paid out in around 5 and a half weeks. That is an annual interest rate of 365/38 * 6% = 57% which is better than the banks at present.

 

[karlboss]

Saw that and I had the same thought. It works out around a 6% return. Back today and you'll be paid out in around 5 and a half weeks. That is an annual interest rate of 365/38 * 6% = 57% which is better than the banks at present.

Was thinking that, it's almost arbitrage...unless they crash into each other and pull out.

 

[willbick]

Classic mug bet.

 

[Ferminal]

I'm pretty keen just to take Cav outright.

 

[karlboss]

Classic mug bet.

Well with a bet on Spilak and moreno for GC I can certainly see why you would think so.

I'd definitely take Cav over Sagan, That's value there, IMHO.

 

[willbick]

Moreno was 5th in last year's Vuelta. He didnt ride the Giro this year for the first time in 4 years so comes to the Tour fresh after a fine 3rd place in the Dauphine. I got 500/1 - that's 125/1 to podium. If you think that's a mug bet good luck with yr sagan/cav .arb'.

 

[karlboss]

Moreno was 5th in last year's Vuelta. He didnt ride the Giro this year for the first time in 4 years so comes to the Tour fresh after a fine 3rd place in the Dauphine. I got 500/1 - that's 125/1 to podium. If you think that's a mug bet good luck with yr sagan/cav .arb'.

Good odds on Moreno no doubt, I wasn't calling your bet a mug bet, it certainly isn't. I was just pointing out that I can understand why someone who would place such a bet, would call an extraordinarily low return bet a mug bet.

 

[willbick]

A low return doesnt mean a mug bet. 1.01 that tomorrow is saturday is a great bet! Its just that you are assuming either cav or sagan must win the green jersey. Yr odds give 6 percent chance they dont. Isnt that fair? Quite possible they could crash out or get ill or something. Obviously most likely one of them will win but 6 percent return is not big

 

[Telmisartan]

A low return doesnt mean a mug bet. 1.01 that tomorrow is saturday is a great bet! Its just that you are assuming either cav or sagan must win the green jersey. Yr odds give 6 percent chance they dont. Isnt that fair? Quite possible they could crash out or get ill or something. Obviously most likely one of them will win but 6 percent return is not big

A 6% return for heavy hitters is an excellent bet.

 

[willbick]

....if it wins. U act like its 100 percent guaranteed sagan or cav wins the green. Its not

 

[Telmisartan]

....if it wins. U act like its 100 percent guaranteed sagan or cav wins the green. Its not

Your rather disingenuously putting words in my mouth,i didnt mention Cav or Sagan or the Green jersey,my point was if a professional punter fancies a bet strongly and intends betting heavily on it,6% to them represents a good return.I was saying nothing more or less than that.

 

[willbick]

this is just meaningless. it's irrelevent whether the return is 6% or 600%. its a bet so its not a guaranteed return. the only thing that matters when having a bet is whether the odds are better than the actual probability of it happening. with any 'investment', whether its having a bet or putting it in a savings account you have to weigh up the chances that you will get yr money back!

 

[Telmisartan]

this is just meaningless. it's irrelevent whether the return is 6% or 600%. its a bet so its not a guaranteed return. the only thing that matters when having a bet is whether the odds are better than the actual probability of it happening. with any 'investment', whether its having a bet or putting it in a savings account you have to weigh up the chances that you will get yr money back!

I am not entirely sure what you are droning on about.Your not a banker by any chance? (i've got nothing against bankers by the way) The point of my three posts on this subject is that your claim of 6% being a "classic mug's bet" in reply to Karlboss is false.If your confident and putting on thousands 6% will do nicely thank you very much.Listen to some professional gamblers,they will tell you.

Just as an aside re the original part of the discussion before i joined in, and unconnected to what i've said above,you are basically saying Cav and Sagan might get sick or crash or someone else might win so its not a certain bet? Okay got it.

 

[Ferminal]

lol, Sky's trash talking seems to have taken Porte to 4th favourite!?

Paddy have a Froome-less market. Contador 2.25 and Purito 7.00, 1.70 on either winning.

 

[search]

If your confident and putting on thousands 6% will do nicely thank you very much.Listen to some professional gamblers,they will tell you.

there is no value in this bet, Greipel alone has over 6% to win green, with or without Cavendish crashing out. And Sagan's price is way too short anyway.

6% is good if there is value, but in this bet there isn't, it's far away from a sure bet

 

[Telmisartan]

there is no value in this bet, Greipel alone has over 6% to win green, with or without Cavendish crashing out. And Sagan's price is way too short anyway.

6% is good if there is value, but in this bet there isn't, it's far away from a sure bet

I see you (like Willbick) are not reading my posts properly either,for the third time, i have no interest in the Green jersey bet,i didn't post in this thread to enter the discussion about the Green jersey bet, i am talking about 6% being construed as a good return for heavy stakes punters,go back and read my posts starting a page or two ago.

On a personal level as a cycling fan i can't see anyone beating Cav or Sagan but i have no comment to make on the bet for the Green jersey,nor have i made one.I dont really have anything further to say about this.

 

[search]

maybe it's you who should read your post again, you said "A 6% return for heavy hitters is an excellent bet.", referring to someone who is arguing that this is not a good bet.

And in generally it does not matter if you are a "heavy hitter" or not, 6% are still 6%, and no value is still no value

 

[Telmisartan]

maybe it's you who should read your post again, you said "A 6% return for heavy hitters is an excellent bet.", referring to someone who is arguing that this is not a good bet.

And in generally it does not matter if you are a "heavy hitter" or not, 6% are still 6%, and no value is still no value

So,let me get this right,you now have a window into my thinking? You have made an assumption that my original post of "A 6% return for heavy hitters is an excellent bet" refers to someone who is arguing that the Cav/Sagan bet isn't a good bet.Tell me for what reason my original post isn't a general statement on 6% being a decent return for ANY bet if your putting enough cash on and you've made the calculation that its as close to a good thing as your ever likely to get?

Twisting my words will not make you right unfortunately.I know what value is,i wasn't born yesterday.Its entirely subjective,neither you nor anyone else here is the arbiter of what value represents.