The Cycling Betting Thread

[ferryman]

A nice but modest return on Gilbert today

My bookie now has Gilbert at 5/2 fav for Amstel with Cunego drifting at 11/1. Gesink and F Schleck in between. I'm still leaning towards Cunego, logic being Amstel is one of his big goals with LBL one of Gilberts. Not dissin anyone but i see it between those 2 given the form both have shown in the last week.

 

[federalski]

I've been trying to get a big, big priced winner on the cycling for a while now and have had a few placed but would really like a 100/1 + winner.
And I'm quite exited by Samuel Dumoulin's price for the Amstel, 200/1 with one bookmaker, and 150/1 with two others to be had.

He has said he wants to take the single stage races more seriously and admitted he see's this one as ideal for him.
He is maybe in the form of his life just now with his sprint wins so far this season showing he has great punch in the legs, and he should, hopefully be able to tackle the Cauberg.

A great each way bet for me.

 

[Sasquatch]

I only managed to get the Gilbert over Freire at 1.61... money on a plate.

Bet of the year that one. $1.67 at Sportingbet it was.

 

[Damiano]

Unibet:

Best Rabobank Rider at Amstel:

Paul Martens @ 10,00!

 

[true legend]

@Damiano I like betxpert too

 

[Damiano]

@Damiano I like betxpert too

It's me

 

[true legend]

Ok, sorry. I thought you where just a random guy copying their bets, and I didn't like that style. But now I know.

 

[auscyclefan94]

$34 for van avermaet to win amstel. good value!

 

[Sasquatch]

$34 for van avermaet to win amstel. good value!

There's better riders around that price with better chances.

 

[Ferminal]

Phil seems to be in closer to 3 now on most books.

Still 3.75 at Sportsbet and a bit left at 4 at Betfair.

I like the look of lots of H2H, going to need to be disciplined though to avoid a failure like last week.

 

[Squire]

I only managed to get the Gilbert over Freire at 1.61... money on a plate.

Got it at 1.72. As you say, money on a plate.

For AGR I have these:

Cunego @ 13
Cunego over Hesjedal @ 1.66 - surprised that it has drifted after I took it
Van Avermaet over Freire @ 2

There are other good h2hs around, but I'm going to stick with these.

 

[Ferminal]

My bets for tomorrow...

Gilbert @ 3.50 and 3.75
Andy's Brother @ 23 (Sportingbet)
Kolobnev @ 26
Visconti @ 51
Gasparotto @ 81

Jurgen Van den Broeck over Devolder @ 1.67 (Sportingbet)

Devolder has done nothing so far this spring, so it would be a big turn around for him to get a satisfactory result here. JVdB is looking reasonable in Pais Vasco without being extraordinary. He will not be a contender but should get an ok placing.

Ivanov over Cancellara @ 1.87 (Sportingbet)

I'm not buying into Cancellara as a contender. He has been good for too many weeks and has probably had enough. I think he will work for Frank and Andy before taking it easy. Ivanov will be amongst the favourites group.

Kolobnev over Vinokourov @ 2.10 (Centrebet)

Vino should be looking to win in L-B-L, not AGR, and will probably work for Gasparotto. He might be competitive but Kolobnev is too good at these odds.

 

[ferryman]

I'm with you on Kolobnev over Vino @ 2.10, also have F Schleck over Gesink @ 2.20 and Cunego @ 13.00.

Just to fit in here I've changed my cycling bets odds filter to decimals as we always bet in fractions here

 

[Damiano]

Phil seems to be in closer to 3 now on most books.

Still 3.75 at Sportsbet and a bit left at 4 at Betfair.

I like the look of lots of H2H, going to need to be disciplined though to avoid a failure like last week.

I've got 4,00 at VictorChandler.

 

[wirral]

If you like betting on cycling, right now, you can lay Paul Martens on Betfair at 65/1 and back Paul Martens on Bet 365 at 80/1. Money for nothing.

 

[ferryman]

If you like betting on cycling, right now, you can lay Paul Martens on Betfair at 65/1 and back Paul Martens on Bet 365 at 80/1. Money for nothing.

I'm not with you

 

[MADRAZO]

If you like betting on cycling, right now, you can lay Paul Martens on Betfair at 65/1 and back Paul Martens on Bet 365 at 80/1. Money for nothing.

Always nice to back some riders with no risk, but you got to be carefull cause sure wins is the safest way to limits, just like playing against abandoned, dropped or nonstarting riders.



Anyways for fun id share a few highoddsers that has some value:


Bert De Waele, got him at first 500/1 and then even 900/1 on betfair (4. last year and in good shape)

Simon Geschke, got him at 800/1 on betfair (a dangeurous joker if the race ends in a larger sprint and in great shape)

 

[MADRAZO]

I'm not with you

If you sell the same amount at odds 65 that you buy at odds 80 you get a "free" risk-free bet at odds 15

 

[Ferminal]

I'm not with you

You can lock in a profit by backing both sides of the equation.

At Betfair you can "Lay" (backing entrants to lose). If you lay one at 65/1, you get $1 for every $65 bet.

If you can back that same person to win at a higher price than what you laid them at, you can guarantee yourself a profit.

e.g. Lay: Martens $10 @ 65/1 = $10 potential profit($650 liability)
Back: Martens $9 @ 80/1 = $711 potential profit

If Martens loses, you gain $10 from Betfair, but lose $9 from Bet365 = $1 Profit

If Martens wins, you lose $650 from Betfair, but gain $711 from Bet365. = $61 Profit.

If you're not interested in the result and just want the profit you would get the profits from both outcomes as close as possible. You can use it as a "free bet" on Martens to win though - you can get 15/1 on Martens with zero risk (Madrazo beat me to it!).

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

martens @51
GvA @41
Gesink @13

 

[Sasquatch]

The local bookie has Vinokourov @ $16 for top 3 here. Wow.

It is tempting. On one hand, I might put something small on it and see what happens but on the otherhand, I want a similar price for Leige-Bastogne-Leige so I hope he doens't go well tomorrow.

 

[MADRAZO]

The local bookie has Vinokourov @ $16 for top 3 here. Wow.

It is tempting. On one hand, I might put something small on it and see what happens but on the otherhand, I want a similar price for Leige-Bastogne-Leige so I hope he doens't go well tomorrow.

That wont happen no matter how bad he does. The finish in Fleche does not suit Vino at all. He has much better chances in LBL. I expect him to be arround 10/1-16/1 in LBL to win, but of course we can hope he will be just as high as here.

 

[Badeend]

Contador @1.89 for top 3 ... is this a pretty solid bet or have i missed something?

 

[ferryman]

You can lock in a profit by backing both sides of the equation.

At Betfair you can "Lay" (backing entrants to lose). If you lay one at 65/1, you get $1 for every $65 bet.

If you can back that same person to win at a higher price than what you laid them at, you can guarantee yourself a profit.

e.g. Lay: Martens $10 @ 65/1 = $10 potential profit($650 liability)
Back: Martens $9 @ 80/1 = $711 potential profit

If Martens loses, you gain $10 from Betfair, but lose $9 from Bet365 = $1 Profit

If Martens wins, you lose $650 from Betfair, but gain $711 from Bet365. = $61 Profit.

If you're not interested in the result and just want the profit you would get the profits from both outcomes as close as possible. You can use it as a "free bet" on Martens to win though - you can get 15/1 on Martens with zero risk (Madrazo beat me to it!).

Thanks for the explanation (and Madrazo).

 

[Ferminal]

Contador @1.89 for top 3 ... is this a pretty solid bet or have i missed something?

I think it's a good bet. I'm going to take it @ 2.00 (Centrebet).

Wasn't even going to have a bet today as there was nothing I liked when I glanced over the markets originally. But anyway...

S. Sanchez @ 31.00 (Centrebet)

S. Sanchez over F. Schleck @ 1.80 (Centrebet)
Lofkvist over Brajkovic @ 1.61 (Bet365)