The Froome Files, test data only thread

[sniper]

Btw, Johnny Lee Augustyn - Jeroen's second most famous pupil according to Colonel - also 'embraced' a certain Barry Austin (who discovered JLA), as he started working for Austin post-retirement.

Meet Barry Austin:
viewtopic.php?p=1853617#p1853617

 

[Benotti69]

Re: Re:

Did you read Cherise's piece?
She talks about embracing former dopers.
What is she talking about? This is what she's talking about:

so bloody what?...clutching at straws.

As I said this place is embarrassing at times

Would those be the straws that show that cycling has a doping culture and that the testing is a joke?

Posters would love to think that the sport is run well, testing works, riders prefer not to cheat, teams are not under huge pressure to get performances, doctors would never give riders pharmaceuticals that they dont need........cop on!

 

[Colonel]

Re:

Btw, Johnny Lee Augustyn - Jeroen's second most famous pupil according to Colonel - also 'embraced' a certain Barry Austin (who discovered JLA), as he started working for Austin post-retirement.

Meet Barry Austin:
viewtopic.php?p=1853617#p1853617

Hahahahaha :lol: :lol: :lol:

You have no idea man. None. At. All.

 

[thehog]

This is the Froome data thread, not kick Dr. Swart in the teeth thread. Let's keep it on the data.

 

[sniper]

yikes, what a metaphor, hog. Weird, cuz the only guy throwing around insults is swart himself, either here or on twitter.

but yeah, back to the data. Here's an interesting tweet from Vayerism:
https://twitter.com/vayerism/status/816671561205870593

Froome had off scores of 94 and 102. In 2015 Haemoglobin increased from 14.5 to 15.3 between 2007 and 2015

 

[ScienceIsCool]

Re:

yikes, what a metaphor, hog.

but yeah, back to the data would be good. Here's an interesting tweet from Vayerism:
https://twitter.com/vayerism/status/816671561205870593

Froome had off scores of 94 and 102. In 2015 Haemoglobin increased from 14.5 to 15.3 between 2007 and 2015

The average diurnal (during the course of a day) variation in hemoglobin is 0.47 g/dL (0.29 mmol/L). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21988588

So based on those numbers alone... his Hb fluctuations are well within normal range. You'd have to look at all the blood parameters together to get any kind of context. That's how and why you generate an off-score. https://sportsscientists.com/2011/03/the-biological-passport-legal-scientific-and-performance-views/

Without even more context (ABP parameters over time), those off-scores of 94 and 102 look normal too.

John Swanson

 

[Semper Fidelis]

Re:

yikes, what a metaphor, hog. Weird, cuz the only guy throwing around insults is swart himself, either here or on twitter.

but yeah, back to the data. Here's an interesting tweet from Vayerism:
https://twitter.com/vayerism/status/816671561205870593

Froome had off scores of 94 and 102. In 2015 Haemoglobin increased from 14.5 to 15.3 between 2007 and 2015

The Dr. is insulting folks? No way. He is to Profesional for that sort a thing......

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

yikes, what a metaphor, hog.

but yeah, back to the data would be good. Here's an interesting tweet from Vayerism:
https://twitter.com/vayerism/status/816671561205870593

Froome had off scores of 94 and 102. In 2015 Haemoglobin increased from 14.5 to 15.3 between 2007 and 2015

The average diurnal (during the course of a day) variation in hemoglobin is 0.47 g/dL (0.29 mmol/L). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21988588

So based on those numbers alone... his Hb fluctuations are well within normal range. You'd have to look at all the blood parameters together to get any kind of context. That's how and why you generate an off-score. https://sportsscientists.com/2011/03/the-biological-passport-legal-scientific-and-performance-views/

Without even more context (ABP parameters over time), those off-scores of 94 and 102 look normal too.

John Swanson

You're being rather favourable to Froome.

Vayerism latest tweet

The Esquire tests

Show a 5% improvement in froome's haemoglobin

And a crude calculation show crit moving from 43 to 45.8

2007-2015

Now I agree that those numbers by themselves aren't evidence of doping.

But lets agree Froome got remarkably lucky with those numbers. To me it screams manipulation.

 

[gillan1969]

Re: Re:

yikes, what a metaphor, hog.

but yeah, back to the data would be good. Here's an interesting tweet from Vayerism:
https://twitter.com/vayerism/status/816671561205870593

Froome had off scores of 94 and 102. In 2015 Haemoglobin increased from 14.5 to 15.3 between 2007 and 2015

The average diurnal (during the course of a day) variation in hemoglobin is 0.47 g/dL (0.29 mmol/L). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21988588

So based on those numbers alone... his Hb fluctuations are well within normal range. You'd have to look at all the blood parameters together to get any kind of context. That's how and why you generate an off-score. https://sportsscientists.com/2011/03/the-biological-passport-legal-scientific-and-performance-views/

Without even more context (ABP parameters over time), those off-scores of 94 and 102 look normal too.

John Swanson

You're being rather favourable to Froome.

Vayerism latest tweet

The Esquire tests

Show a 5% improvement in froome's haemoglobin

And a crude calculation show crit moving from 43 to 45.8

2007-2015

Now I agree that those numbers by themselves aren't evidence of doping.

But lets agree Froome got remarkably lucky with those numbers. To me it screams manipulation.

although nothing says it like Poland/Vuelta...........

 

[sniper]

^true of course.

Anyway, we have this from the Esquire article:

On 13 July, Froome’s haemoglobin was 15.3 grams per litre (g/l) and 0.72 per cent of his red blood cells were immature (the normal adult range is 0.5–2.5 per cent). EPO stimulates the bone marrow, flooding the blood with immature cells, whereas a blood transfusion results in an excess of red blood cells, which suppresses the bone marrow and results in fewer immature red cells. His OFF-score, which approximates to the balance between the amount of red cells in his circulation and the rate of their formation, was 102.1. On 20 August, Froome’s haemoglobin was 15.3 and he had 0.96 per cent immature red blood cells. His OFF-score was 94.21.

15.3 hb in the second week of the TdF is remarkably high.
In a GT, hb typically drops off 1 point after a week of racing.
So that means that at the start of the TdF, Froome must have had a remarkable hb of over 16.

Maybe Andy Coggan or Jeroen Swart can chime in and tell us if they've ever seen a cyclist with such a high hb.

And how does he manage to keep it stable at 15.3 going from the second week of the TdF to the 20th August 'independent' testing session?
Remember, Rasmussen's hb dropped quite gradually in the 2005 and 2006 tdfs, where he used only one bloodbag. In 2007, by contrast, his hb remained stable throughout the race as he was using three bloodbags.

 

[King Boonen]

Remarkable? I'm pretty sure the general range for adult males is 14-18 g/dL which then drops around 50.

 

[sniper]

'normal' adult males don't have the higher plasma volume that endurance athletes have.

 

[King Boonen]

Yes, which will lower it slightly. Do you have a reference for a range in endurance athletes? Total hemoglobin has been shown to be higher in trained athletes which would off-set changes in plasma volume compared to non-trained controls.

 

[sniper]

This one for instance. Data from 25 professional cyclists:
http://www.53x12.com/hb-offs-individual-variance
The range there is from 13.5 (lowest) to 16.0 (highest).

Again, taking the typical decrease of 1 point per week for a GT, Froome's hb at the start of the TdF would have been (well) above 16.0.

 

[Nomad]

Re:

Yes, which will lower it slightly. Do you have a reference for a range in endurance athletes? Total hemoglobin has been shown to be higher in trained athletes which would off-set changes in plasma volume compared to non-trained controls.

I've used this study as a reference:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11590477

 

[King Boonen]

16.1 highest. I found the Ashenden papers on the biopassport with loads of refs, this is interesting, especially if you note the authors:

https://www.thieme-connect.com/products/ejournals/html/10.1055/s-2004-830495#N65834

Max values of Hb from the 4 machines were reported as 16.2, 16.2, 16.7, 16.4, means are between 14.6-15 and SDs of 0.7 or 0.8. This would certain put Froome at the very top end if his Hb at the start was around 16.3. Where are you getting the 1-point per week drop?

The cut-off for competition was set at 17 in 2003 (I think). I don't know if that stands still.

What I don't know is the expected range of values for TDF GC cyclists at the start of the TDF and the expected range for decrease over the TDF. This makes it hard to draw any conclusions from that one data point. I have found ranges for "endurance" athletes going up to 17.8 (I think it was) but that as footballers who I wouldn't consider in the same league as cyclists so can't really draw any conclusions from it.

 

[Mr.38%]

http://www.jssm.org/vol6/n2/16/v6n2-16pdf.pdf
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0063092

There was another popular study but I cannot find it atm.

Edit: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225044274_Haematological_and_iron_metabolism_parameters_in_professional_cyclists_during_the_Giro_d'Italia_3-weeks_stage_race

 

[Vayerism]

We would need the actual pre tour values to draw any meaningful conclusion.

1 point per week is fairly typical for a GT, see Horner, Rasmussen or Hamilton (in reference to why its three bags/tour). Though it varies obviously. It can also be 10-12% with the majority in the first week, as you wouldn't expect it to continue to drop on a continual standard line.

So it stands to reason, though without the actual figure nothing more than that. That if Froome is at 15.3 a week and a half in you can add 1.5 to the figure giving 16.8 at the start of the tour.

So while it's within "normal range" I'd argue that its very unlikely, though not impossible. If the results for the entire tour were released we could see the movement of blood values over the course. If clean, it stands to reason that Froome's pre tour value should be circa 16.8, again, which would be incredibly high, given the "typical range" for elite endurance athletes. Considering 1. the typical range and 2. the fact that he was at 14.5 in 2007, which is an 14% improvement.

Though that's based on estimates

 

[sniper]

We would need the actual pre tour values to draw any meaningful conclusion.

1 point per week is fairly typical for a GT, see Horner, Rasmussen or Hamilton (in reference to why its three bags/tour). Though it varies obviously. It can also be 10-12% with the majority in the first week, as you wouldn't expect it to continue to drop on a continual standard line.

So it stands to reason, though without the actual figure nothing more than that. That if Froome is at 15.3 a week and a half in you can add 1.5 to the figure giving 16.8 at the start of the tour.

So while it's within "normal range" I'd argue that its very unlikely, though not impossible. If the results for the entire tour were released we could see the movement of blood values over the course. If clean, it stands to reason that Froome's pre tour value should be circa 16.8, again, which would be incredibly high, given the "typical range" for elite endurance athletes. Considering 1. the typical range and 2. the fact that he was at 14.5 in 2007, which is an 14% improvement.

Though that's based on estimates

To give some specific examples:

1.
Rasmussen's data for 2005, 06 and 07:
http://www.feltet.dk/michaelrasmussen/index.php?sid=307
We know in 05 and 06 he used only one bag. In both years his hb drops more or less gradually after week 1.
In 2007, otoh, he used three bags, et voila, his hb stays more or less constant.

2.
Lance Armstrong's Giro 2009 vs. Tour 2009 comparison:

Morkeberg: "the picture is inconsistent with what we normally see. Armstrong's levels are unchanged from the first to the last test, and normally we expect a decrease. We saw this fall in his levels during the Giro d'Italia a couple of months earlier, but not during the Tour."
http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/analysis-armstrongs-tour-blood-levels-debated/

3.
From a Morkeberg 2009 paper I'm getting :

During the Tour de France, the [Hb] decreased by 11.5 %, with individual decreases ranging from 7.0 to 20.6 %.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18773375

11.5% over three weeks, that would be, say, from 15,0 at the start to 13.4 at the end.
But obviously at least some of the pro's in that morkeberg study are infusing blood during the TdF, which leads to an increase in hb, skewing the results of the study towards a lower average decrease.
So hypothetically, without any blood doping, we'd expect the average hb to drop more significantly than 11.5%, say, 20%, which would indeed roughly come down to a 1 point hb decrease per week in the TdF.

 

[thehog]

Now this is much more interesting...

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

3.
From a Morkeberg 2009 paper I'm getting :

During the Tour de France, the [Hb] decreased by 11.5 %, with individual decreases ranging from 7.0 to 20.6 %.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18773375

11.5% over three weeks, that would be, say, from 15,0 at the start to 13.4 at the end.
But obviously at least some of the pro's in that morkeberg study are infusing blood during the TdF, which leads to an increase in hb, skewing the results of the study towards a lower average decrease.
So hypothetically, without any blood doping, we'd expect the average hb to drop more significantly than 11.5%, say, 20%, which would indeed roughly come down to a 1 point hb decrease per week in the TdF.

That TDF data comes from CSC... In 2007... I would be extremely wary about that data being even slightly representative of clean data.

 

[roundabout]

So Rasmussen's hemaglobin dropped by 0.1 g/dL between the start of the Tour and the first rest day in 2005 and 2006.

does it mean that he used his "only" blood bag on the flat (don't recall a single climb above category 3) slog between Strasbourg and Lorient?

 

[Vayerism]

You're missing the point.

The data that is being used is coming from doped athletes, so the impact would be greater without blood doping.

what I am presenting is the values (est). that are required IF Froome is clean, not if he is doped. doped is easy, I could write that in a second. clean is harder to write, primarily because the data is so scant.

So again,

IF clean

Stage 10 - hb 15.3 (high)
Then the start must be - hb. circa 16.8 (very high)
and by the end of the tour somewhere around 14 - that is what the data we do have states. However we don't have this data for Froome. So what I'm saying is if clean there should be a decline, and a fairly rapid one. The fact it "normalised" back to 15.3 before the veulta, suggests that the starting point. This means Froome didn't lose a drop of mass in ten stages of racing.... Clean.

 

[thehog]

Re:

So Rasmussen's hemaglobin dropped by 0.1 g/dL between the start of the Tour and the first rest day in 2005 and 2006.

does it mean that he used his "only" blood bag on the flat (don't recall a single climb above category 3) slog between Strasbourg and Lorient?

Depends when the rest day is...

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

You're missing the point.

The data that is being used is coming from doped athletes, so the impact would be greater without blood doping.

what I am presenting is the values (est). that are required IF Froome is clean, not if he is doped. doped is easy, I could right that in a second. clean is harder to write, primarily because the data is so scant.

So again,

IF clean

Stage 10 - hb 15.3 (high)
Then the start must be - hb. circa 16.8 (very high)
and by the end of the tour somewhere around 14 - that is what the data we do have states. However we don't have this data for Froome. So what I'm saying is if clean there should be a decline, and a fairly rapid one. The fact it "normalised" back to 15.3 before the veulta, suggests that the starting point. This means Froome didn't lose a drop of mass in ten stages of racing.... Clean.

You need to quote people so they know who you are talking to, I'm guessing my post re: 2007 CSC? I'm not missing the point, I'm making the point that even trying to estimate clean changes over the Tour from that data is going to be massively dodgy.

You can say that in general changes will be greater for clean athletes compared to doped ones, but you can't then make estimates and apply them to single athletes as the error is going to be too big to draw any meaningful conclusion from.

What we can do is look at Froome's values in relation to others that are available, and we see that, if the 1-point/week decrease is accepted, Froome's starting TDF samples would be high, even compared to CSC over the season:
"From December 12th 2006 to November 30th 2007, 374 blood samples and 287 urine samples from 28 elite male cyclists from the Danish cycling team, Team CSC, were obtained."