The Great Grand-Tour-Game 2011

[FoxxyBrown1111]

DeWeert had great climbing. He even lost foolishly 4 minutes on the cobbles (Stage 3). So his true value was to finish 16th, in Vino´s class.

The big Q is: Will he be that good again?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

My big gamble:
I havn´t picked Horner. I speculate he either gets caught inside the TdF, or "Mr. 0%" is getting dropped every other day. At least that was my prediction months ago. I have to stick with it now.

To have at least one French, i had to choose Coppel as Alibi-Pick. This just reminds me of the great laugh i had off Ferminal´s post some days ago ...

Otherwise i used the same tactics which (just) worked at the Giro: KG over WC over the rest of my so-so 40 riders on my pre-list (plus avoiding tired Giro-Riders named other than Contador) ...

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Hopefully my selection is enough for the vuelta. GTs are too hard to predict

 

[Ferminal]

I had Coppel as 20th, then saw that I had forgotten Jani B.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I had Coppel as 20th, then saw that I had forgotten Jani B.

I choose coppel over jani.

Are the wild cards still worth double?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Yes. WC score double.

All important infos will stay in Post # 1 and # 3 on Page I.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

The run for the prize and bottle officially is re-opened.

Picks are online now: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ouuTPqRWhQL_1rrmRGEZzuYu2mHxvbgyWC16lExNaBE/edit?hl=en_US&pli=1

Let the Show begin. Everybody picked Cav on Stages 7 and 21. LOL ...

... and Gilbert on Stage 4. So nothing to gain there. Edit: Ah no, Ferminal has Evans there. So we all know who shouldn´t win then.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Interesting...

75% have Gilbert for stage 1.

Only 5 of us choose cav for the first 'expected' bunch gallop.

The TTT is apparently less predictable then the giro. HTC the most popular with 7 picks.

Only mortand and armchair were brave enough to go martin instead of canc for the final tt.

Just 3 of us gave A schleck the nod before ac, while not a single player had as or ac out of the top 2.

While Gesink was just barely the most popular pick for 3rd place ahead of samu and Evans respectively, with a high of 6 picks.

The amazing TLR is the only user to not predict a stage for mr. contador. Meanwhile he is the most popular pick for Alpe D'Heuz with 50% of the picks.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Interesting...

75% have Gilbert for stage 1.

Only 5 of us choose cav for the first 'expected' bunch gallop.

The TTT is apparently less predictable then the giro. HTC the most popular with 7 picks.

Only mortand and armchair were brave enough to go martin instead of canc for the final tt.

Just 3 of us gave A schleck the nod before ac, while not a single player had as or ac out of the top 2.

While Gesink was just barely the most popular pick for 3rd place ahead of samu and Evans respectively, with a high of 6 picks.

The amazing TLR is the only user to not predict a stage for mr. contador. Meanwhile he is the most popular pick for Alpe D'Heuz with 50% of the picks.

Wow. That was a fast check of facts.
I think the amazing TLR tries to risk the cut again by not picking AC. Or he knows something we don´t know.

If i hadn´t picked with my heart (picking at least one french), i´d have picked De Weert as my "Tiralongo-Secret-Pick" for the Top-20. I think this will hurt me.

Very conservative picking at all. Seems everybody learned from the heart breaking Giro-Finale. We have only 35 different Guys for the CG down from around 50 at the Giro. No more Appollonios in the Top-20. LOL

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

The Avg.-Pick for the Top-20 (times picked by participants):

1st - Contador (16) SAX
2nd - ASchleck (16) Leo
3rd - SSanchez (16) EUS
4th - Gesink (16) RAB
5th - Evans (16) BMC
6th - VDB (16) OM
7th - Basso (16) LIQ
8th - FSchleck (16) Leo
9th - Wiggins (14) Sky
10th - Horner (12) RSH
11th - Leipheimer (15) RSH
12th - Vino (15) Ast
13th - Klöden (11) RSH
14th - Brajkovic (12) RSH
15th - Roche (13) Ag2r
16th - Cunego (12) Lam
17th - VDV (10) Gar
18th - Hesjedal (7) Gar
19th - Mollema (9) RAB
20th - TMartin (8) HTC

So who´s captain of RSH or Garmin (Danielson is also in the mix at 23rd)?

 

[boomcie]

I made an overview of the stage picks again. This time: percentages included.

Here you go guys:

Stage pick overview.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

... and out of Boomcie´s Stats (link see also Post #1), is calculated the Avg.-Stage-Pick (same rules as for individuals = max. 3 picks per rider):

1 - Gilbert (picked 12 times by participants)
2 - HTC (7)
3 - Petacchi (7)
4 - Gilbert (15)
5 - Farrar (3)
6 - Goss (5)
7 - Cavendish (16)
8 - Gilbert (5)
9 - Voeckler (5)
10 - Petacchi (5)
11 - Cavendish (5)
12 - Contador (8)
13 - Voeckler (5)
14 - Contador (8)
15 - Petacchi (5)
16 - Vinokourov (3)
17 - Voeckler (4)
18 - Contador (8)
19 - ASchleck (6)
20 - Cancellara (14)
21 - Cavendish (16)

What we can see here is, the TdF does not really start before Stage 12. Same procedure as every year. I personally like the Giro more...

 

[Tuarts]

FWIW, if I had to pick a top20:

Alberto Contador
Andy Schleck
Samuel Sanchez
Ivan Basso
Robert Gesink
Cadel Evans
Jurgen Van den Broeck
Levi Leipheimer
Jerome Coppel
Alexander Vinokourov
Bradley Wiggins
Janez Brajkovic
Rein Taaramae
Frank Schleck
David Arroyo Duran
Nicolas Roche
Christian van de Velde
Vladimir Karpets
Luis Leon Sanchez
Kevin De Weert

See how I compare I guess cba with stages

 

[Greenflame]

Just 3 of us gave A schleck the nod before ac, while not a single player had as or ac out of the top 2.

I actually figured the odds would be about 60-40 in favour of Contador, but almost all others would pick Contador anyway. If I'd pick Contador and he would win, I'd have an advantage of 1 point on 3 others. Would Schleck win, I'd have 1 point on perhaps 15 others.
It's a gamble, but if Schleck wins that one point could make the difference. Of course, if Contador just wins I'd be lagging a point on everyone.. Well, mathematically I made the correct decision (if the 60-40 odds are correct), so I'll stick with it

I do have to say it was very hard to make my picks, so many quality riders for both stages and GC. I took very little risks besides choosing Andy over Alberto, mostly going with the obvious choices.

I guess we'll see how it works out

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

FWIW, if I had to pick a top20:

Now you can also send the stages, just to see how you would end up.

BTW, great pick with DeWeert. I think that would have guaranteed you a Top-8-Spot...

 

[Tuarts]

Ok, very quickly:

1: Gilbert
2: Garmin-Cervelo
3: Cavendish
4: Gilbert
5: Hushovd
6: Gilbert
7: Cavendish
8: Kern
9: Pettachi
10: Hushovd
11: Casar
12: Kiriyenka
13: Chavanel
14: Contador
15: Farrar
16: Cunego
17: Gadret
18: A.Schleck
19: Contador
20: Cancellara
21: Cavendish

 

[Ferminal]

... and out of Boomcie´s Stats (link see also Post #1), is calculated the Avg.-Stage-Pick (same rules as for individuals = max. 3 picks per rider):

1 - Gilbert (picked 12 times by participants)
2 - HTC (7)
3 - Petacchi (7)
4 - Gilbert (15)
5 - Farrar (3)
6 - Goss (5)
7 - Cavendish (15)
8 - Gilbert (5)
9 - Voeckler (5)
10 - Petacchi (5)
11 - Cavendish (5)
12 - Contador (8)
13 - Voeckler (5)
14 - Contador (8)
15 - Petacchi (5)
16 - Vinokourov (3)
17 - Voeckler (4)
18 - Contador (8)
19 - ASchleck (6)
20 - Cancellara (14)
21 - Cavendish (16)

What we can see here is, the TdF does not really start before Stage 12. Same procedure as every year. I personally like the Giro more...

My Petacchi and Cav picks are the same as the average. Voeckler too, was "tough" choice between him and Casar on that one. Gone Goss 5 and Hushovd 6. My biggest risk is Gilbert for 9 instead of 4. As long as they pull the break back Gilbert will win 9. 4 is a question mark because the first part is super steep, but then the final km is "only" 4%.

Who went The Shack on the TTT?

Interesting Andy only picked for a stage win 18 times, Contador 32. I went 2 each just because I couldn't split them.

The picks are a lot closer this time, I guess that's what happens when you're down to the 16 best Giro score could be important.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Congrats to Boomcie and Sasquatch. They´ll score 1 more important point than the rest of us...

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/peraud-tour-de-france-rookie-at-34

I didn´t know Peraud is Co-Captain. Tought he´d serve Roche solely.

Dlwssonic corrected his vacant Stage 7 spot. So we have unanimous picks in two stages. Nothing to gain in 7th and 21st stage.

I put Tuarts (not qualified) and Cobble (sent his picks to late) also in the Stats:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ouuTPqRWhQL_1rrmRGEZzuYu2mHxvbgyWC16lExNaBE/edit?hl=en_US&pli=1

But they compete out of competition. They are not included in the various stats.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

$h... it. Wat the heck with Canc.? Did they have a deal from spring??

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Juhu... My first Laterne Rouge ever.

Standings after Stage 1:

1 (25) Hartog (1st)
1 (24) Sasquatch (2nd)
1 (23) Lancaster (3rd)
1 (22) Boomcie (4th)
1 (22) Ferminal
1 (22) Hitch
1 (21) Greenflame (7th)
1 (19) Dlwssonic (8th)
1 (19) Sylvester
1 (19) Timmy Rabo
1 (18) Kazistuta (11th)
1 (18) Mortand
0 (22) Aarnold (13th)
0 (19) Amateur (14th)
0 (19) Armchair
0 (19) Foxxy
----------------
(Tie-Breaker Total-Points after Giro)

 

[jobiwan]

This hurts still reading this thread, as it looks like I ended up as 1st alternate after some withdrawals!!

Best of luck to everyone, tougher to predict than the Giro?

And today's stage might have thrown a wrench into everyone's predictions?

 

[Ferminal]

This hurts still reading this thread, as it looks like I ended up as 1st alternate after some withdrawals!!

Best of luck to everyone, tougher to predict than the Giro?

And today's stage might have thrown a wrench into everyone's predictions?

Only real hurt is those who had Samu top 6 or 7. Otherwise it's mainly bad news for everyone.

Coppel, Peraud, Mollema, Vandevelde, Uran some of the lesser picks struck down.

Had the latter 3.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

uhhf, I think I just equalled my stage win tally at the giro

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

This hurts still reading this thread, as it looks like I ended up as 1st alternate after some withdrawals!!

Best of luck to everyone, tougher to predict than the Giro?

And today's stage might have thrown a wrench into everyone's predictions?

Yop. You was the next in line. 2 of the Top-16 didn´t make it. And the "would be replacement" Cobblestoned is banned a few more days, so his picks came too late...

The worst hit is VDV loosing 3.41. And of course i am one of the few who have him. My new aim is Top-10. I have to be realistic...

Congrats Rabo-Timmy. Now you can break your on record on Stage 2 already.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

That´s the way i like it... We shall call it a game now

Provisionals after Stage 1: (Total-Points after Giro)

12 Sasquatch (1st)
11 (22) Ferminal (2nd)
11 (19) Foxxy (3rd)
10 (25) Hartog (4th)
10 (23) Lancaster (5th)
10 (22) Boomcie (6th)
10 (21) Greenflame (7th)
10 (19) Timmy Rabo (8th)*
----------------------------------
10 (19) Sylvester (9th)*
9 (22) Hitch (10th)
9 (19) Dlwssonic (11th)**
9 (19) Amateur (12th)**
9 (18) Kazistuta (13th)***
9 (18) Mortand (14th)***
8 Aarnold (15th)
6 Armchair (16th)

* Timmy-Rabo wins further tie breaker step on most Top-20-Finishers w/9 (vs. 8 for Sylvester)
** Dlwssonic wins further tie breaker step on most Stage-Wins w/1 (vs. 0 for Amateur)
*** Kazistuta wins further tie breaker step on most Top-20-Finishers w/8 (vs. 7 for Mortand)