The Great Grand-Tour-Game 2011

[lancaster]

about half of my top 20 have a pretty low chance of finishing in the top 50 after 4 stages.

also cav is a big bust for me.

doesn't look like ima win this

 

[boomcie]

about half of my top 20 have a pretty low chance of finishing in the top 50 after 4 stages.

also cav is a big bust for me.

doesn't look like ima win this

According to my own calculations The Amateur is currently worst off in the long run, followed by Sasquatch and Foxxy. Things might change quickly though and I didn't take stage wins into consideration.

These are just quick and random parameters and I could have made mistakes, so don't worry guys

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

According to my own calculations The Amateur is currently worst off in the long run, followed by Sasquatch and Foxxy. Things might change quickly though and I didn't take stage wins into consideration.

These are just quick and random parameters and I could have made mistakes, so don't worry guys

But i do worry now, even tough JRod. just won the stage...

 

[boomcie]

But i do worry now, even tough JRod. just won the stage...

I was cheering for Purito cause I was sure I had picked him, but apparently I picked Sagan... WTF, I must not have looked into this stage very well.

Yeah, that was "fuuuuuuuuuuuuuunny".

Following riders could turn out to be good picks:
Poels, Bruseghin, Zubeldia, Fuglsang, Pardilla, Cobo.

Some of these will most definitely break though. Probably Poels.

 

[Sylvester]

7 of us have Cav for stage 7:

Seems like a big advantage for lancaster...

... who picked Anton, though

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Seems like a big advantage for lancaster...

... who picked Anton, though

LOL. Nice summary.

P.S.: I am still rolling. Ouch...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I was cheering for Purito cause I was sure I had picked him, but apparently I picked Sagan... WTF, I must not have looked into this stage very well.

Yeah, that was "funny".

Following riders could turn out to be good picks:
Poels, Bruseghin, Zubeldia, Fuglsang, Pardilla, Cobo.

Some of these will most definitely break though. Probably Poels.

Double-LOL. I was just looking at Sylvester´s post, almost throwing my coke over the keyboard. But yours is a close 2nd, just realized it now.

 

[boomcie]

Double-LOL. I was just looking at Sylvester´s post, almost throwing my coke over the keyboard. But yours is a close 2nd, just realized it now.

Whatever. I just edited the post and added a visual of myself after discovering.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Hahaha....

BTW, Poels seems a real great secret pick. Never imagined he could be a 3-Week-Contender. My usual "insider" was (hopefully) Bakelants. Today he was good. I think i saw him finishing with the big guys after a soso yesterday.

Seems you are good in computers, may you can make a little programming for next year so we can see which picks look good in the middle of the GT´s...

 

[boomcie]

Hahaha....

BTW, Poels seems a real great secret pick. Never imagined he could be a 3-Week-Contender. My usual "insider" was (hopefully) Bakelants. Today he was good. I think i saw him finishing with the big guys after a soso yesterday.

Seems you are good in computers, may you can make a little programming for next year so we can see which picks look good in the middle of the GT´s...

Yeah, I've got Bakelants as well, but I'm afraid he's going to have to slave for VDB2. This is why he was pretty far back yesterday, if I understand correctly. That's why I excluded him from the "provisional great pick" list.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Yeah like Lövkvist is the slave for Wiggo.

Other slaves (seems i like that description ) were better picks (like Moreno, of whom i haven´t picked, of course ).

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Provisionals after 5:

13 Sylvester (1st)
11 Hartog (2nd)
11 Foxxy (3rd)
10 Lancaster (4th)
10 Mortand (5th)
8 Boomcie (6th)
7 Sasquatch (7th)
7 Amateur (8th)

Favourite Sylvester even improved his lead...
------------------------------------------------------
I have done some quick stats on how our riders are:
I call riders outs, who have already lost over 5 minutes, thus seeming a.) to have given up already or b.) not in form.
Here´s the list of outs:
Sasquatch 7 (sorry, but you can basically say goodbye ; needing a miracle like spotting many riders in the exact tipped rank + some stage wins)
Lancaster 5
Amateur 5
Sylvester 4
Foxxy 3 (don´t know why you counted me out, Boomcie )
Mortand 2
Boomcie 2
Hartog 2

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

@ Boomcie and Amateur,

how in the world did you guys know about Poels?

There is nothing in my POV which led to the assumption he could finish in the Top-20 in a 3-Week-Race, but now even cycnews brings a article about that this guy´s for real.

Great pick that highly possible gives Boomcie a great chance to prevail in the end. Masterstroke...

 

[boomcie]

@ Boomcie and Amateur,

how in the world did you guys know about Poels?

You win some you lose some.
Me messing up yesterday (still don't understand it) already cancels out the potential Poels top 20.

Foxxy 3 (don´t know why you counted me out, Boomcie )

I don't believe in Bakelants and Le Mevel for instance. I also took into account the wild cards. You don't have as many.
But it's looking up for you and I probably overstated myself a little

 

[The Amateur]

Well, I won't be a thread to annyone. It just went to fast making my team... Too many riders I forgot to include - and too many stages I didn't look closely at the profile.

I think it was at Tour de Suisse last year I noticed Poels the first time for real. I see him as a big talent but actually don't expect him to do that good in this year's Vuelta. He is very young to do two grand tours. He came in to the Vuelta in good form (bested Rollands on a mountain stage I think) but will probably tire. I counted on him doing a breakaway later thus gaining a lot of minutes. I thought he might even fight for the KOM. Since he is high in the GC at this stage he'll probably just slowly drop out of top 20.

- The Amateur

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

You win some you lose some.
Me messing up yesterday (still don't understand it) already cancels out the potential Poels top 20.




I don't believe in Bakelants and Le Mevel for instance. I also took into account the wild cards. You don't have as many.
But it's looking up for you and I probably overstated myself a little

That comes when rushing the picks in the last day.

Yep wild cards is another advantage for you (thank you Taaramae for telling everybody you´re still in form after the TdF ). But since Menchov recovered and will win in the absence of Anton, i might sneak it out.

Well, I won't be a thread to annyone. It just went to fast making my team... Too many riders I forgot to include - and too many stages I didn't look closely at the profile.

I think it was at Tour de Suisse last year I noticed Poels the first time for real. I see him as a big talent but actually don't expect him to do that good in this year's Vuelta. He is very young to do two grand tours. He came in to the Vuelta in good form (bested Rollands on a mountain stage I think) but will probably tire. I counted on him doing a breakaway later thus gaining a lot of minutes. I thought he might even fight for the KOM. Since he is high in the GC at this stage he'll probably just slowly drop out of top 20.

- The Amateur

Ah ok, nice explanation about Poels. And you still got a chance, with Kiserlovski and Sörensen... they are still good placed.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

LOL... Sagan. Have him three times, but of course on the wrong stages. Like Boomcie

 

[boomcie]

LOL... Sagan. Have him three times, but of course on the wrong stages. Like Boomcie

Not even funny

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Provisionals after Six:

14 Mortand (1st)
12 Sylvester (2nd)
11 Hartog (3rd)
10 Foxxy (4th)
10 Boomcie (5th)
8 Sasquatch (6th)
8 Lancaster (7th)
5 Amateur (8th)

Hartog coming off the waiting list always hovers around the top.
Mortand as TdF-Fill-In with great chance to win it all. He somehow reminds me of the 1991 Minnesota North Stars...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I am officially an idiot. I shouted out loud take care of Kittel.... and i didn´t pick him.

 

[Sasquatch]

Think you will see me pop up the leaderboard by middle of next week.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Provisionals after 8:

15 Mortand (1st), 2 outs*
14 Hartog (2nd), 2 outs
12 Sylvester (3rd), 4 outs
11 Boomcie (4th), 2 outs
10 Sasquatch (5th), 7 outs
10 Foxxy (6th), 3 outs
8 Lancaster (7th), 5 outs
8 Amateur (8th), 5 outs

Mortand is the clear favourite now. Most stage wins, fewest outs, most provo points... his only weakness is the tie-breaker. But he won´t care when he wins the game by 5 points.

(* riders picked into the Top-20 already 14+ minutes behind)

 

[mortand]

This is going quite well. I've hardly watched the race, though, as I'm in my usual it's-been-a-long-season-I-need-a-break-from-cycling-mode. Oh, the irony

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Cobo was a great pick by Sylvester... for nothing.

I think about this since long: May next year the rules will be improved to this; If a predicted stage winner finishes in the Top-3 of a stage the player will receive 0,5 points (too little points were scored this year for stages compared to the Top-20).
The WC-Rule will be completely removed, making predictions even harder.
If a predicted Top-20 rider just finishes outside the Top-20 (Place 21st - 30th) in the Final-CG, the player will also receive 0,5 points. That makes the game more fair. What you think guys?

Provisionals after 9:

16 Hartog (1st), 2 outs
15 Mortand (2nd), 3 outs
13 Boomcie (3rd), 2 outs
12 Lancaster (4th), 5 outs
12 Sylvester (5th), 4 outs
11 Foxxy (6th), 5 outs
10 Amateur (7th), 6 outs
9 Sasquatch (8th), 8 outs

Some real shuffling at the 1st true Mountain stage.
Hartog now leads both classifications (stage wins, provisionals).
Sylvester is dropping deeper every day.
We have a new laterne rouge (Sasquatch).
The game is practically over for me , just waiting whom to hand out the winning prize. It will be 3-Men-Race between Hartog, Mortand and Boomcie, while Sylvester still has a outside chance.... I hope i make the podium at least... just for pride

 

[boomcie]

Cobo was a great pick by Sylvester... for nothing.

I think about this since long: May next year the rules will be improved to this; If a predicted stage winner finishes in the Top-3 of a stage the player will receive 0,5 points (too little points were scored this year for stages compared to the Top-20).
The WC-Rule will be completely removed, making predictions even harder.
If a predicted Top-20 rider just finishes outside the Top-20 (Place 21st - 30th) in the Final-CG, the player will also receive 0,5 points. That makes the game more fair. What you think guys?

Excellent improvements. These would definitely make the game more fair.