The Monuments Men – Or who will win all 5 of them?

[scribers]

Technically yes, but a big but!

How big a but we talking here?

 

[Rockestar_33]

So little faith in Pogi? He has a lot of power and isn't absurdly light, also we knew he's good on cobbles. With vdP and Lombardia it's a different story because he'd have to loose weight for it. The one Lombardia he rode, he came in 10th, but 6:28 off the pace of the winner Fuglsang. He's a stronger rider now, but he's still to heavy because Lombardia involves much longer climbs than what suits him. Pogacar basically can ride PR with his normal classics weight. So the way it looks after Sunday "all" that Pogacar needs to win PR is a subpar vdP or just more luck than him. For vdP even if Pogacar doesn't ride Lombardia and he does, there's still a lot of better climbers in that race that'll just get rid of him. I don't think he's willing to make the sacrifice necessary to even have a shot at Lombardia. That is if he doesn't win Liege, which is more realistic, but that's hard to come by if you don't race it very often. That maybe could be a motivation to try, but then he'd still have Pogacar/Remco/better climbers in between him and victory. So overall I think he's not even interested in trying tbh.

We know he's absurdly good in Watts/kg, but I didn't think he'd have the pure watts to compete with Wout, Ganna etc on what is basically a flat parcourse, no matter how good he is on cobbles. I got it wrong, happy to admit it, but I didn't see it happening.

 

[Wyndbrook]

How big a but we talking here?

Merckx won the Vuelta.

 

[Red Rick]

At this point I think Pogacar is >50% likely to do it. And Evenepoel is the only one I'd give >0.01% chance if he started racing all monuments depending how badly actual cobbles would break him. But I'd think he could learn a bit.

 

[Peyroteo94]

At this point I think Pogacar is >50% likely to do it. And Evenepoel is the only one I'd give >0.01% chance if he started racing all monuments depending how badly actual cobbles would break him. But I'd think he could learn a bit.

Remco can't even position himself. I would give Brennan or Nys a 0.1% chance. Their potential is to be a Gilbert or Sagan type of rider. Brennan is very young, 7 years younger than Pogacar so he will have a chance later in his career if he confirms this level and continues to improve significantly (after 27 years old).

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

At this point I think Pogacar is >50% likely to do it. And Evenepoel is the only one I'd give >0.01% chance if he started racing all monuments depending how badly actual cobbles would break him. But I'd think he could learn a bit.

Given his history of injuries and his latest post about how difficult the comeback was, I don't know if he should go down this route. I think there's a reason he only rode Liege and Lombardia so far. Cobbles are always risky, MSR involves a lot of positioning and a fast descent and the end, those races are made to challenge him in a way that might be to much for his bike handing skills, and his nerves (because of the relative lack of skills). I think Remco would be happy to have a few calm seasons in a row, and riding those races would just be asking for trouble.

 

[Heston]

At this point I think Pogacar is >50% likely to do it. And Evenepoel is the only one I'd give >0.01% chance if he started racing all monuments depending how badly actual cobbles would break him. But I'd think he could learn a bit.

I would say Van der Poel has a bigger chance than Remco.

He already has 3 of them and he was the 2nd best in Liege last year. He just needs a year where Pogacar doesn't ride it.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

I would say Van der Poel has a bigger chance than Remco.

He already has 3 of them and he was the 2nd best in Liege last year. He just needs a year where Pogacar doesn't ride it.

Even if he wins Liege, and that requires riding it, which he does not do often (twice so far), he'd still have to win Lombardia. And there he'd need a chunk of much superior climbers not to race to have a chance.
Btw.: Bardet was second best in Liege last year, vdP won the sprint for 3rd.

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

I think the best way to do it is the Gilbert / Pog approach: win the Ardennes / Lombardia while you're young and lean and try to win Flanders / Roubaix when you're a bit older and more experienced.
The crux is MSR: sometimes the stars align (the Nibali approach, late attack like Cancellara), sometimes you force it and win the sprint vs. 1-2 others (Bettini, Alaphilippe), but often you are in better sprinting company / not evading a sprint of a bigger group (Gilbert, Pog).
I can't see MvdP winning Liege / Lombardia, and I don't think MvdP is considering to change his training / weight in order to be more competitive for those 2. At the same time I expect the chances of Pog winning San Remo as very low. I see him ending with 4 (RVV, Roubaix, Liege, Lombardia).

 

[Berniece]

Remco can't even position himself.

You didn't see TDF stage 9?

 

[gavia88]

I think the best way to do it is the Gilbert / Pog approach: win the Ardennes / Lombardia while you're young and lean and try to win Flanders / Roubaix when you're a bit older and more experienced.
The crux is MSR: sometimes the stars align (the Nibali approach, late attack like Cancellara), sometimes you force it and win the sprint vs. 1-2 others (Bettini, Alaphilippe), but often you are in better sprinting company / not evading a sprint of a bigger group (Gilbert, Pog).
I can't see MvdP winning Liege / Lombardia, and I don't think MvdP is considering to change his training / weight in order to be more competitive for those 2. At the same time I expect the chances of Pog winning San Remo as very low. I see him ending with 4 (RVV, Roubaix, Liege, Lombardia).

Well, should MvdP at least not slightly lower his weight to be competitive for the MTB worlds?

 

[will-10]

Has VdP ever talked about the 5 monuments, is it even a motivation for him? It feels like Liege and Lombardy are possible (without being the top favourite to win either).

 

[Peyroteo94]

I'm not even talking about LBL, but sometimes I wonder what makes some people think MVP can win GdL one day. Are they putting a bomb on the road and neutralize the race before a sprint? Are they putting pins to make climbers crash or having flat tyres, just like we saw in the Tour? I seriously would like to know what mountain stage or mountain classic did MVP win in his career?

 

[Red Rick]

Given his history of injuries and his latest post about how difficult the comeback was, I don't know if he should go down this route. I think there's a reason he only rode Liege and Lombardia so far. Cobbles are always risky, MSR involves a lot of positioning and a fast descent and the end, those races are made to challenge him in a way that might be to much for his bike handing skills, and his nerves (because of the relative lack of skills). I think Remco would be happy to have a few calm seasons in a row, and riding those races would just be asking for trouble.

I think it's fairly conceivable Evenepoel will try both Sanremo and RVV at some point. I imagine 2025 was quite encouraging especially for Sanremo for him. He's never chasing Roubaix though, so it's always a hypothetical

I would say Van der Poel has a bigger chance than Remco.

He already has 3 of them and he was the 2nd best in Liege last year. He just needs a year where Pogacar doesn't ride it.

Van der Poel has never shown interest in chasing the 5, and I think it's unlikely he'll ever race Lombardia again. It's way too hard on the current routes

 

[AmRacer]

I think it's fairly conceivable Evenepoel will try both Sanremo and RVV at some point. I imagine 2025 was quite encouraging especially for Sanremo for him. He's never chasing Roubaix though, so it's always a hypothetical

Van der Poel has never shown interest in chasing the 5, and I think it's unlikely he'll ever race Lombardia again. It's way too hard on the current routes

And Remco chasing all five of them?

 

[gavia88]

I think it's fairly conceivable Evenepoel will try both Sanremo and RVV at some point. I imagine 2025 was quite encouraging especially for Sanremo for him. He's never chasing Roubaix though, so it's always a hypothetical

Van der Poel has never shown interest in chasing the 5, and I think it's unlikely he'll ever race Lombardia again. It's way too hard on the current routes

I think Lomdardia has had the most variantion in difficulty in it history compared to the other monuments. But since the end of the 90's it always has been a climber orientated race. Maybe the Gilbert year was one of the easier versions. So, I don't think the route will be made that easy that MvdP has a chance in the next 3-4 years. Highly unlikely to decide to finish in Milano or Monza again (or in Bergamo without using the tougher mountains).

 

[gavia88]

MvdP missed his chance to win LBL in 2021. If he hadn't done the Benelux tour and that crazy solo. I really think he could have won that edition.

 

[SafeBet]

I'm casually dropping Albert Philipsen name here so I can look cool in 15 years.
Or look like those posters mentioning Moscon and Benoot at the beginning of the thread.

 

[E_F_]

I'm casually dropping Albert Philipsen name here so I can look cool in 15 years.
Or look like those posters mentioning Moscon and Benoot at the beginning of the thread.

I was thinking about him as well. He says he'd like to do "what Pogi is doing" so... Thing is, he'd also like to be an MTB and CX star. He basically wants to be both vdP and Pogi.

 

[Potomac]

I'm casually dropping Albert Philipsen name here so I can look cool in 15 years.
Or look like those posters mentioning Moscon and Benoot at the beginning of the thread.

Very good. Likewise, I will say Enzo Hincapie, so I will look cool in 20 years

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Given his level and still rather young age Pogacar has a decent chance but...he still misses two of them. Two is way more difficult than one. He tried many times in MSR and no effect. Only once in PR: he impressed there but it won't be easy to win. MVP is obviously the biggest obstacle now but nobody is unbeatable. Maybe he won't be present in a few years but the landscape can change i.e. a new super rival appearing or Pogacar becoming less dominant.

I very much doubt MVP or Remco have chances to do it. MVP can't climb long cols while Remco doesn't even like gravel (not to mention PR cobbles!) plus he has only 1/5 and Pogacar is around.

 

[wansteadimp]

I'm not even talking about LBL, but sometimes I wonder what makes some people think MVP can win GdL one day. Are they putting a bomb on the road and neutralize the race before a sprint? Are they putting pins to make climbers crash or having flat tyres, just like we saw in the Tour? I seriously would like to know what mountain stage or mountain classic did MVP win in his career?

RCS doing a route specifically for Ganna and MVDP spoiling the party! /s

 

[gavia88]

RCS doing a route specifically for Ganna and MVDP spoiling the party! /s

never underestimate RCS to add Pompeina some moment in time just to help Pog winning all 5

 

[red_flanders]

I would say Van der Poel has a bigger chance than Remco.

He already has 3 of them and he was the 2nd best in Liege last year. He just needs a year where Pogacar doesn't ride it.

Or Evenepoel. Or Roglič. Or even Van Aert.

I don't think Van der Poel or Evenepoel have any realistic chance at this point. If Remco had started getting results on the cobbles a couple years ago, it would be different. But his focus has always been stated as winning all 3 GT's...which is another discussion, but a great goal for him.

 

[Berniece]

Given his level and still rather young age Pogacar has a decent chance but...he still misses two of them. Two is way more difficult than one. He tried many times in MSR and no effect. Only once in PR: he impressed there but it won't be easy to win. MVP is obviously the biggest obstacle now but nobody is unbeatable. Maybe he won't be present in a few years but the landscape can change i.e. a new super rival appearing or Pogacar becoming less dominant.

I very much doubt MVP or Remco have chances to do it. MVP can't climb long cols while Remco doesn't even like gravel (not to mention PR cobbles!) plus he has only 1/5 and Pogacar is around.

I think Pogacar is easily going to do it. MVDP won’t, and he doesn’t care. Evenepoel only if he shows in the next two seasons that he’s interested and rides at least RVV. Although in his case I wouldn’t be surprised if he only wins 4, just no MSR.