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The Monuments Men – Or who will win all 5 of them?

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On La Redoute last year, Van der Poel was in 21st position close to the top and not in the Top 18 at the top. A chasing group of 16 riders regroups after the descent. Healy, Bardet (who would go on to finish 2nd) Grégoire and Cosnefroy attack while Van der Poel is still dropped. Van der Poel‘s group then returns at 27k to go. On Roche-aux-Faucons while Bernal, Carapaz, Benoot, Van Gils and Lutsenko catch up to the riders dropped by Bardet, we see Van der Poel drift to the rear of the group. Bilbao, Lapeira and Vansevenant also catch up soon enough. Van der Poel catches up together with Martin, Pidcock and Mollema around 7k to go. Oh, and by the way, Vansevenant and Gregoire wasted way more energy attacking the Van der Poel group when Van der Poel was behind the split earlier in the race. Honestly, saying Van der Poel was the 2nd strongest in the race has to be the most ridiculous claim in recent forum memory. Vansevenant looked way stronger and nobody claims he could win Liège.
 
The one I've never understood is Bling not having ever ridden Roubaix. He's finished top 4 in Liege, podiumed in Flanders (before a *** relegation) and MSR. He may never win a monument but he could easily finish top 10 in Roubaix
 
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I think Remco could win the 5 in theory (at least he has the engine) but looking at his comeback from another crash I almost feel guilty for putting any kind of pressure on him. I don't expect him to compete for this years LBL. I hope I am proven wrong and we finally get a duel between Evenepoel and Pogacar. The rivalry that never was.
 
The one I've never understood is Bling not having ever ridden Roubaix. He's finished top 4 in Liege, podiumed in Flanders (before a *** relegation) and MSR. He may never win a monument but he could easily finish top 10 in Roubaix
Basically, Bling is too scared of the race. Plapp who has the right power profiles should be trying one day classics, yet, despite Jayco and his coach encouraging him, he has no interest.
 
I think the best way to do it is the Gilbert / Pog approach: win the Ardennes / Lombardia while you're young and lean and try to win Flanders / Roubaix when you're a bit older and more experienced.
The crux is MSR: sometimes the stars align (the Nibali approach, late attack like Cancellara), sometimes you force it and win the sprint vs. 1-2 others (Bettini, Alaphilippe), but often you are in better sprinting company / not evading a sprint of a bigger group (Gilbert, Pog).
I can't see MvdP winning Liege / Lombardia, and I don't think MvdP is considering to change his training / weight in order to be more competitive for those 2. At the same time I expect the chances of Pog winning San Remo as very low. I see him ending with 4 (RVV, Roubaix, Liege, Lombardia).
MvdP’s best chance of winning LBL or Lombardia is if they return to some of the previous routes from the 80s/90s where the toughest climb on the route was Redoute/Ghisallo, with a long way to the finish. Between the Sormano and the GT-Queen-Stage vert in recent years, it’s hardly a surprise that the best GT climber has dominated the GdL without really trying.
 
MvdP’s best chance of winning LBL or Lombardia is if they return to some of the previous routes from the 80s/90s where the toughest climb on the route was Redoute/Ghisallo, with a long way to the finish. Between the Sormano and the GT-Queen-Stage vert in recent years, it’s hardly a surprise that the best GT climber has dominated the GdL without really trying.
I wouldn't mind an easier Lombardia, as it is now favouring Pog too much.
At the other hand, I wouldn't mind a slightly harder San Remo, but maybe that would favour Pog too much! :)
I think Liege is how it should be, as the old parcours favoured wheelsuckers a bit too much, but maybe that was just that era. Nowadays, the modern crop of riders would probably still make a Redoute attack stick to the end.
 
I would say Van der Poel has a bigger chance than Remco.

He already has 3 of them and he was the 2nd best in Liege last year. He just needs a year where Pogacar doesn't ride it.
250px-Tour_de_l%27Ain_2014_-_Romain_Bardet.jpg



Van der Poel wasn't the second strongest, or even the third,in Redoute. He benefited from the groupings because the others no longer had a chance of winning.

If you look at the Redoute, there were more riders who climbed better.

I see it as complicated, but even if he wins Liège, I think Lombardia is impossible to him.

He finished tenth in an edition where Lombardia wasn't ridden so aggressively. Right now, I don't think he'd even finish tenth.

Six minutes with Fulsang in a pre-Pogacar Lombardia.
 
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I think Remco could win the 5 in theory (at least he has the engine) but looking at his comeback from another crash I almost feel guilty for putting any kind of pressure on him. I don't expect him to compete for this years LBL. I hope I am proven wrong and we finally get a duel between Evenepoel and Pogacar. The rivalry that never was.
Remcos said he hates the cobbles.

Once again, is underestimated what Pogacar achieved in Roubaix. As he´s done second in his debut, we think that Remco will also be able to. Having power doesn´t mean knowing or being able to handle it on cobbles.

In E3, Ganna looked tremendously strong on the road, but on the cobbles he couldn't use all his power.
Tarling, with all his power, is far from being a candidate for Roubaix for now.

When Remco was asked about Flanders, he said he didn't like the cobbles, and we want him to win Roubaix....

I think only Pogacar can do it. Remco's situation reminds me of what was said about Van Aert in 2022. He hasn't shown he can do it even remotely. Their options are based on qualities in other races like TDF, Liege...,

It's not about potential, it's about demonstrating it. Many people considered Ganna a bigger favorite for Roubaix than Pogacar for that reason, but what counts is practice, not theory. And in Sanremo, if Pogacar has a tough time, we'd have to see Remco descending the Poggio. Last year, his descent on the Galibier was terrible.
 
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Tbh I don't think the difficulty of the routes matters that much for MvdP. This is simply the point in the season where every year people are so amazed by his cobbles performances that they forget he really can't climb that well. Like AGR is almost too climbing heavy for him. He won it once, true, but even then he needed a huge favor from Alaphilippe and Fuglsang to do so. In the hilly section around Eyserbosweg he always got smoked by better climbers. There will never be an edition of LBL and Lombardia without harder climbs than that.

People always point to "the routes when Gilbert won" but Gilbert still followed Scarponi on SFDB and the Schlecks on RaF (I hope my memory is not tricking me here). I don't think MvdP could do that.
 
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Not to mention, I read a comment that Van der Poel didn't want to win the 5, when he literally said that a few years ago :sweatsmile:.He'll have changed his mind because he'll find it increasingly difficult, especially because of Lombardy.

As for theorizing that Van der Poel would win Lombardy in the 1980s, it's pointless to think about it. Another circunstances, another material...

In the80s, bikes didn't have the gearing we have today either. With the old gearing, this year's Cipressa wouldn't have been passed by Van der Poel or Ganna with Pogacar. A Cipressa as it was climbed this year, with gears from the 80s, would been pased in first-place by climbers.


Thinking in the context of the 80s is misleading. I would also change a race like Sanremo.


On La Redoute last year, Van der Poel was in 21st position close to the top and not in the Top 18 at the top. A chasing group of 16 riders regroups after the descent. Healy, Bardet (who would go on to finish 2nd) Grégoire and Cosnefroy attack while Van der Poel is still dropped. Van der Poel‘s group then returns at 27k to go. On Roche-aux-Faucons while Bernal, Carapaz, Benoot, Van Gils and Lutsenko catch up to the riders dropped by Bardet, we see Van der Poel drift to the rear of the group. Bilbao, Lapeira and Vansevenant also catch up soon enough. Van der Poel catches up together with Martin, Pidcock and Mollema around 7k to go. Oh, and by the way, Vansevenant and Gregoire wasted way more energy attacking the Van der Poel group when Van der Poel was behind the split earlier in the race. Honestly, saying Van der Poel was the 2nd strongest in the race has to be the most ridiculous claim in recent forum memory. Vansevenant looked way stronger and nobody claims he could win Liège.
Van der Poel is excellent at positioning. His poor positioning at Redoute is also due to the fatigue Van der Poel suffered in Liège.
 
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I think Remco could win the 5 in theory (at least he has the engine) but looking at his comeback from another crash I almost feel guilty for putting any kind of pressure on him. I don't expect him to compete for this years LBL. I hope I am proven wrong and we finally get a duel between Evenepoel and Pogacar. The rivalry that never was.
In theory anyone can win but in real life Remco's chances of winning all five is as large as MVDP's chances of winning Lombardia, i.e. close to null.

The one race where Remco really excel is LBL so let's hope we get a real good showdown between him and Pog this year. In 2023 we robbed of that.
 
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Reading some opinions on the forum, it seems that Pogacar, who finished second in his first year at Roubaix, will have difficult to win that race. So, the others will have more difficult tu win the 5 monuments

Pogacar has difficult to win Roubaix, but Remco has another one better even in Lombardia.
The situation that Pogacar has in Roubaix, Remco has even in Lombardia

All this reminds me of what was said about Van Aert in 2022. He had conditions for the 5 races, but he wasn't the best in any of the five, except San Remo. Pogacar isn't the best in Roubaix, but Remco isn't even the best in Lombardia, which is the second easiest for him.
Considering that Van Aert has the conditions in cobbles, Remco says that he suffers. This isn´t even an opinion, it is something Remco has said.
 
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Reading some opinions on the forum, it seems that Pogacar, who finished second in his first year at Roubaix, will have difficult to win that race. So, the others will have more difficult tu win the 5 monuments

Pogacar will difficult to win Roubaix, but will be difficult for Remco to even win Lombardy with Pogacar.
The situation that Pogacar has in Roubais, Remco has even in Lombardy
All this reminds me of what was said about Van Aert in 2022. He was god the 5 races, but he wasn't the best in any of the five, except San Remo. Pogacar isn't the best in Roubaix, but Remco isn't even the best in Lombardy, which is the second easiest for him.
I don't know why people think it will be difficult for Pogacar to win Roubaix. He was 2nd in his first Roubaix, and has another 5-8 years to go for it. He'll win it at least once, just like he will eventually win MSR. It's not like MVDP will always be in this shape the next 8 years.

Just like I don't see any reason to think why Remco wouldn't be able to win Lombardy. I also don't expect Pogacar to win it the next 10 years every time. Sometimes *** happens, and other people have an opportunity.
 
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Cause Remco's ability riding PR (and RVV) is comparable to MVDP's ability winning Lombardia.

The difference being that Remcos way to be able to ride them successfully is learning the craft of riding on cobbles, what vdP needs to win Lombardia is a body transformation. No learning will get him around that. I don't think that vdP is interested in that, or that it would be a good idea, because it might also simply not work. But there is a road of learning for Remco, if he wanted to do it. Of course he could also not succeed at it, but it's not outlandish someone learns to ride well on cobbles I guess. Also given that he's still relatively new to this whole bike racing thing.
 
The one rider that has a serious chance of bagging all of the five monuments is Pogacar. He could actually have a slim chance of doing it in the same season if all stars were aligned.

Remco. No, don't see neither the skill nor the ambition to get RVV or PR. Maybe MSR but remember he lost the sprint to MVDP at the WC in Zurich last year on a course better suited to him than MVDP. Lombardia and LBL absolutely.

MVDP. No, maybe maybe LBL with all sorts of luck and a complete focus on just that race. Lombardia. No way.

Pedersen. MSR, PR and RVV maybe but else even less likely than MVDP.

Ganna. MSR yes but else no.

WVA. Unfortunately I'm afraid no. Wish him all the best but maybe only MSR.
 
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