If he wins the CX Worlds, and it hard to see how he doesn't (but it's sport, so who knows?), then he still holds 2 rainbow jerseys, and could do a 'PFP'...by winning the XCO Worlds, in Andorra in August.
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My impression is that he would have been a threat to win LBL on the old Ans finish. But if either Remco or Pogacar (or especially) are riding LBL, seems a lot to expect him to hang on during the long climbs?I'm not surprised if he goes for Liege this spring, he's good to go for that. For Lombardy he needs maybe small weight drop, but he does not need to be a Wiggo, not even close.
What were the circumstances that allowed him a pretty strong 6th place finish (without even a day off after wrapping up his BinckBank Tour win)? He finished at the front of a group of climbers, 14 seconds behind the winning move of 3 Slovenians plus Alaphilippe and van Aert. I don't remember much about the finale except Alaphilippe's gaffe and relegation.Look
My impression is that he would have been a threat to win LBL on the old Ans finish. But if either Remco or Pogacar (or especially) are riding LBL, seems a lot to expect him to hang on during the long climbs?
Good question. You’re right there is potential there: he finished at the head of the 2nd group (of 11 riders) that came in 14 seconds back of the front grp of 5 riders. But many riders can manage to finish in the usually sizable 2nd group at LBL but many don’t have a chance of winning. Guillaume Martin was in that 2nd gro, and as much as I like him, he is not going to win LBL. It’s not a surprise MVDP won the sprint of the chasing group, at the end of a hard race, and perhaps he could have done that in the Ans days. But in terms of winning LBL nowadays, finishing 6th is no closer than finishing 16th.What were the circumstances that allowed him a pretty strong 6th place finish (without even a day off after wrapping up his BinckBank Tour win)? He finished at the front of a group of climbers, 14 seconds behind the winning move of 3 Slovenians plus Alaphilippe and van Aert. I don't remember much about the finale except Alaphilippe's gaffe and relegation.
A lot of riders can win if the tactical situation gets right. I bet many would've said that Jungels was never going to win LBL, for example.Good question. You’re right there is potential there: he finished at the head of the 2nd group (of 11 riders) that came in 14 seconds back of the front grp of 5 riders. But many riders can manage to finish in the usually sizable 2nd group at LBL but many don’t have a chance of winning. Guillaume Martin was in that 2nd gro, and as much as I like him, he is not going to win LBL. It’s not a surprise MVDP won the sprint of the chasing group, at the end of a hard race, and perhaps he could have done that in the Ans days. But in terms of winning LBL nowadays, finishing 6th is no closer than finishing 16th.
But it would be fun to see him prove me wrong!
I hope you’re right, for excitement’s sake But the facts are the last 4 LBL winners are GT winners, and every winner since our Aussie friend (2010?) were top-level GC guys (including Jungels in that period) which MVDP is not. On the old Ans course, few riders were willing to put everything into an attack on the biggest climbs because they were a long way out, and climbers figured they still could (and did) win it on the final short climb to Ans. Valverde in particular. Now we have climbers who are willing to attack from afar, and they know their chances would decrease if they allow a bigger group (with the likes of MVDP) to come to the finish with them.A lot of riders can win if the tactical situation gets right. I bet many would've said that Jungels was never going to win LBL, for example.
It is a question of odds. Even at pretty high odds you may end up not winning and even at pretty low odds you may get lucky.
From a purely road legacy standpoint, he has plenty work left to do to even get close to Boonen or Cancellara in the two most important races for a rider of his ilk - RVV and PR. But MVDP is bigger than road cycling. He didn't even start on the road for real until age 25. But he can do things on a bike that no other pro bike rider can do. The stuff he does on a cyclocross bike when he is in full flow is unreal. He'll finish w/multiple road monuments, multiple CX titles along with the insane hit rate, multiple MTB World Cup wins and likely a WC and maybe OG on that bike.Let's not underestimate how legendary would be for a rider to win all the five monuments in modern cycling. Van der Poel is one of the two riders in the current peloton that can achieve this but unlike the other, Pogačar, he can't win Grand Tours so apart from those off-road titles, the major one-day races on the road are the kind of races that can put him as one of the all time greats.
Don't get me wrong, if he continues to win his usual monuments plus something like the Olympic gold this year he is going to have a legendary career but in order to become one of the all time greats, I think he needs to win the five monuments and I don‘t think that LBL is impossible even though beating Pogačar and/or Remco is always going to be very difficult and as for Il Lombardia, well, I would say that he has no chance at his current weight with the last routes but if he has an easier route like in 2009 or 2010 and drops 2 or 3kg, then he becomes a serious contender and ironically I think this would help in the MTB too.
This went to my signature the minute I read it!Are you saying @noob should stop acting like a male genitalia?
From a purely road legacy standpoint, he has plenty work left to do to even get close to Boonen or Cancellara in the two most important races for a rider of his ilk - RVV and PR. But MVDP is bigger than road cycling. He didn't even start on the road for real until age 25. But he can do things on a bike that no other pro bike rider can do. The stuff he does on a cyclocross bike when he is in full flow is unreal. He'll finish w/multiple road monuments, multiple CX titles along with the insane hit rate, multiple MTB World Cup wins and likely a WC and maybe OG on that bike.
From a purely road legacy standpoint, he has plenty work left to do to even get close to Boonen or Cancellara in the two most important races for a rider of his ilk - RVV and PR. But MVDP is bigger than road cycling. He didn't even start on the road for real until age 25. But he can do things on a bike that no other pro bike rider can do. The stuff he does on a cyclocross bike when he is in full flow is unreal. He'll finish w/multiple road monuments, multiple CX titles along with the insane hit rate, multiple MTB World Cup wins and likely a WC and maybe OG on that bike.
WC+Monument wins | Podiums | |
Boonen | 8 | 13 |
Cancellara | 7 | 16 |
Van der Poel | 5 | 9 |
Agreed. If he can stay healthy the sky is the limit. At full power and health, his physical talent and killer instinct is at a level that can take "luck" (meaning anything outside of a crash that takes him of a race) out of the equation. As for CX, let's hope he keeps at it - that's where his bike handling skills (finding grip, carrying speed thru corners, etc. are on full display (IMO much more so than on the MTB where you have the suspension, dropper, big tires, etc. to do most of the work).I am convinced that if Van der Poel remains healthy, he is going to reach the 7 monument wins of the two riders you mentioned as he is just turning 29 this winter and already had a few setbacks on his still short road career. However, in order to build and even bigger legacy that puts him clearly above of someone like Boonen for instance (Cancellara is more difficult to compare because of his TT titles), I think he should try Liège as well and if he wins that race or if he has an easier course to work with, why not Lombardia?
As for offroad races, his best road season came after a short CX season and being just 2 wins way of the record, it makes sense for him to keep racing the Worlds there. As for MTB, I think he should be very selective with it, targetting races only when the opportunity cost of road racing is low because he is simply not as good there as in CX and let's not forget that it was the main reason for the back injury that hampered his chances in the Worlds + Roubaix of 2021.
Interesting, given his relatively late start to road cycling, it would be insane if he would manage to catch up to or even improve on these absolute legends, the best coupled classic riders of the last 20 years.He's already getting fairly close no? Especially given that monuments are often won by experienced rides, being able to showcase this legacy at an age of 28 makes me quite confident that he'll be able to get very close or even match them.
WC+Monument wins Podiums Boonen 8 13Cancellara 7 16Van der Poel 5 9
I really don't think so. Van der Poel's opposition is Pogacar and Van Aert, Cancellara's and Boonen's was Flecha and Ballan...Interesting, given his relatively late start to road cycling, it would be insane if he would manage to catch up to or even improve on these absolute legends, the best coupled classic riders of the last 20 years.
I checked and it seems Boonen won 5 out of 7 monuments at Mvdp's current age and Cancellara 'only' 2 out of his 7. So it actually seems doable. Ofcourse the big caveat is avoiding crashes. And he will, amongst others, have to deal with Arnaud De Lie in the next years who I believe will not be easy to beat (this may age very poorly).
However, although it always will be a bit apples and oranges, I do believe that Mathieu needs to either win more Tour de france stages than the 1 he currently has, or win more monuments than them, to be considered on their level in roadracing. And I say this as a Mathieu fan, purely looking at results. Because you could already argue that the way in which mvdp reached some of these titles is more impressive than the way Boonen for instance reached some of his (although that's probably up for debate).
But also, Cancellara's opposition was Boonen, and vice-versa. And in the later years Sagan...I really don't think so. Van der Poel's opposition is Pogacar and Van Aert, Cancellara's and Boonen's was Flecha and Ballan...
It wouldn't be insane, cause he's already 2 and 3 wins away from them. I think he will manage that, and even surpass them if he stays healthy and avoids heavy crashes.Interesting, given his relatively late start to road cycling, it would be insane if he would manage to catch up to or even improve on these absolute legends, the best coupled classic riders of the last 20 years.
I checked and it seems Boonen won 5 out of 7 monuments at Mvdp's current age and Cancellara 'only' 2 out of his 7. So it actually seems doable. Ofcourse the big caveat is avoiding crashes. And he will, amongst others, have to deal with Arnaud De Lie in the next years who I believe will not be easy to beat (this may age very poorly).
However, although it always will be a bit apples and oranges, I do believe that Mathieu needs to either win more Tour de france stages than the 1 he currently has, or win more monuments than them, to be considered on their level in roadracing. And I say this as a Mathieu fan, purely looking at results. Because you could already argue that the way in which mvdp reached some of these titles is more impressive than the way Boonen for instance reached some of his (although that's probably up for debate).
The reason I'm a bit cautious is that both sagan and Alaphillipe kind of stopped winning at the age that mvdp is now. Gilbert declined after the age of 29. Ofcourse there are different circumstances (alaphilippes crashes) and Gilbert still won some good races, but at some point there will be a decline, I'm sure. Hopefully not anytime soon!It wouldn't be insane, cause he's already 2 and 3 wins away from them. I think he will manage that, and even surpass them if he stays healthy and avoids heavy crashes.
As for Tour de France stages, well Van Aert has more than both, Cancellara and Boonen, and I didn't noticed anyone puts him in their league.
In 15 years, Van Aert will be regarded like Ballan, Hushovd & Pozzato.I really don't think so. Van der Poel's opposition is Pogacar and Van Aert, Cancellara's and Boonen's was Flecha and Ballan...
They went head-to-head in 2006, 2008 and 2010 fully. You can of course somewhat dismiss most other years.Cancellara and Boonen actually avoided each other in the monuments more often than not. Their peaks basically don't really overlap either.
While other riders are being told to straighten out their brake hoods as a safety measure, MVDP must now start every race with handlebars designed to buckle under extreme loads, ensuring a strictly enforced "rider watt limit"Some of the proposed rule changes are ridiculous.. MVDP is now being asked to start a day later to give riders extra time. And those fans and " competitors " demanding the Mathieu stop each lap to get a mandatory haircut, rebuild bottom bracket, headset and swap out his chain is a bit much!! There has got to be a way to give others a chance and let someone else win...he didn't win by the same margin, still great!! And dry conditions made a clean jersey at the finish a nice change!! Guy is fantastic!!!
Agreed, and: I think it's underrated just how important it is to have a strong rival, both to provide constant motivation and to make one look good when winning. Sagan beating up on GVA every year isn't the same spectacle as if he'd been duking it out with prime Gilbert, Boonen, etc.Van Aert is MvdPs closest rival, even if the rivalry is extremely one sided.
Lol, no chance.In 15 years, Van Aert will be regarded like Ballan, Hushovd & Pozzato.
The second guy?In 15 years, Van Aert will be regarded like Ballan, Hushovd & Pozzato.
Omitting Cancellara, but not naming Colbrelli, Asgreen and Van Baarle as Van der Poel's opposition is certainly one way to present your case.
Lol, no chance.