Doubt he’ll finish in the top 10, but it’s good to have him back at the biggest race
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Bernal has had very few completely bad days so far this season and been consistent. Thats the most important thing in a GT for a good GC-result. To be consistent.
Top 10 is very much achievable as it is looking now for him. A good spring and he has gained confidence again. Will be interesting to see how he does at Suisse or Dauphine before the Tour.
Top 10 is very much achievable as it is looking now for him. A good spring and he has gained confidence again. Will be interesting to see how he does at Suisse or Dauphine before the Tour.
I wouldn't sell him short. There aren't that many deep teams; he could get in some action amid the chaos and find himself back in the frame.
I know there are many variables in a race that might affect a rider be top in a GC. And that applies to everyone. But for the life of me, what have you seen from the Bernal performance this year that might not allow him to be freaking and meaningless top 10 in the Tour?
BTW, Castroviejo was 15th last year, Chaves 13 th in 2021 and there are so many other Zubeldias out there that can be top 10. In fact, who gives a rat a$$ about top 10. So they are taking him to the race to be top 10? seriously.
I really don't know. Hard to tell if he has to consistency and power to be top 3, but top 10?
Top 10 certainly, but I have a feeling he'll be even on a podium
Elos Anjos
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Bernal said he is back and beyond his best "numbers".
I'll ignore that the universal gauge today of any rider's self-image seems to be a set of numbers and not his confidence or "feelings". That would be a totally different discussion that not many forum users could fathom, even less comprehend.
What we know is that Bernal won a Giro and a Tour. If indeed he is "back", he would have to be next to Pogacar, Vingo and Roglic. Unless the peloton has increased its level so much that his numbers are therefore meaningless for a top ten or a podium.
The point is that if we take Bernal's talent and career and his assertion that he is back to his best numbers, if he does not perform in the Tour that can only mean:
1) we was lucky in his GT endeavours;
2) assessing performances based exclusively in numbers is flawed;
3) he is indeed back to his best level but that does not suffice anymore because what counts is to stay competitive; one year out means forever out (ergo, Quintana); Bernal would have to stay active during the past three years in order to keep in touch with the ever growing level of the peleton; if that is the case, tough luck on Vingo, he might never be back to his "best";
I'll ignore that the universal gauge today of any rider's self-image seems to be a set of numbers and not his confidence or "feelings". That would be a totally different discussion that not many forum users could fathom, even less comprehend.
What we know is that Bernal won a Giro and a Tour. If indeed he is "back", he would have to be next to Pogacar, Vingo and Roglic. Unless the peloton has increased its level so much that his numbers are therefore meaningless for a top ten or a podium.
The point is that if we take Bernal's talent and career and his assertion that he is back to his best numbers, if he does not perform in the Tour that can only mean:
1) we was lucky in his GT endeavours;
2) assessing performances based exclusively in numbers is flawed;
3) he is indeed back to his best level but that does not suffice anymore because what counts is to stay competitive; one year out means forever out (ergo, Quintana); Bernal would have to stay active during the past three years in order to keep in touch with the ever growing level of the peleton; if that is the case, tough luck on Vingo, he might never be back to his "best";
Because the competition will be too strong. I’ve added a list of riders who I think are stronger than him if they were able to ride for themselves. Some will ride for themselves because they aren’t team players, others can because the race situation gave them this opportunity.
Vingegaard, Pogacar, Roglic, Evenepoel, Yates A., Yates S., Pidcock, Hart, Mas, Hindley, Kuss, Almeida, Ayuso, Vlasov, Carapaz, Thomas
Those are 16 riders. Some will fall out, some might have to work for others, but even then it’ll be hard to finish top 10.
Good thing Bernal will finish ahead of these riders.
Only top shape Vingegaard, Pogacar and Roglic are stronger than full strength Bernal, the level I hope he will reach at the Tour.
He might, but imo he didn't show that level yet in spring.
Bernal is already pushing better number than he ever did before and isn't able to follow the best in the peloton. Maybe other riders have just become better and he stagnated (due to his fall). I don't see why he suddenly is going to be better than Yates, Evenepoel or C. Rodriguez for example.
Let's see than. I'm betting on Bernal against any of these. He was better than them before, he will be better again.
Suddenly better than Yates? You realize that he's been better than both Yates this year consistently? Not too difficult since they both rather surprisingly have sucked so far this season.
And he was only beaten by Pogacar and Landa in Catalunya. Why would Vlasov, Mas etc suddenly be better than Bernal? As for the best numbers, ever heard a rider claim he had worse numbers than he used to?
Bernal right now looks like he's in the big group of riders behind Vinge, Pogacar, arguably Roglic. Thomas, Carapaz, Evenepoel, Hindley, Mas, Ayuso, Carlos Rodriguez , that seems to be his level right now. He should leave some of them behind soon. If his back is ok.
We'll see then in the TDF, I don't believe he's at that level at all. Comparing to Adam Yates doesn't make sense since he has injuries. Catalunya he was indeed quite good, but you also have Paris-Nice. TDF will make it clear where he's at.
I hope he can leave them behind, would love another contender at such a high level, but I just doubt it at the moment.
I stopped at competition is strong. The competition is garbage, next question.
If the competition was strong Pogacar wouldn't be considering doing the double, period.
Bernal should have slowed down in the previous races for all those riders. He forgot that He is not that strong for them.
I will stop here because I don't want to give bad luck to Bernal! 
Here are the current odds to win the TDF, odds to finish in the top 10 haven't been released so far. So in the betting markets, he is tied for 9th/10th highest odds. Of course, Rodriguez has better odds and the question remains to be seen if Bernal will at some point have to sacrifice for him (of course the same could be said for Ayuso, Yates, etc)?
Bernal finishing outside the top 10, at least in the mind of the gamblers, is certainly a possibility, albeit not probable.
Pogacar 8/15
Roglic 7/2
Evenepoel 9/1
Ayuso 9/1
Adam Yates 20/1
Kuss 25/1
Rodriguez 25/1
Hindley 33/1
Bernal 40/1
Mas 40/1
https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner
All it takes is a stupid crash or illness that could take out a few of the top favourites then 40/1 seems a rather nice little earner, if Bernal can stay upright/well and strong enough. Regardless of who he was up against, he has won 2 GT's, so knows the routine. I would love to see him up there on the podium and 40/1 each way seems a better bet than 9/1 each way.
Hindley always the most underrated GT rider. He won the Giro 2022, and he was the strongest last year in the Tour after Pogacar and Vingegaard before the crash.
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